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The Bills over C Ark by 22


The Wiz
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Great game against Pine Bluff ..especially if you are a numbers geek...a lot of good numbers.  If you want to see those numbers, check out the post game post on the Ark PB spread thread.

 If you will let me digress for a moment, we can delve into some good news. The Bills are now an A- team which puts us on target for March Madness.  Some may think it was the 20 extra points against Pine Bluff that pushed us over the top ...but that's not what did it.  It was replacing predictive data with real data.  In other words , if you do what you are supposed to do, (in this case win by at least 31 pts)   the computer rewards you.  Real data is worth more than predictive data.  That is why the 1st 8 games are so important. ....BTW , with 3 games under our belt we now have a trending line too ...The Bills are trending at an A level...You always want to trend higher than your overall grade. For those who are following along Richmond is also at A- and trending at A....so we are in a virtual tie with them right now....which is a good thing for the Bills....It will mean  more when you beat them.

Now back to our regular scheduled game. The C Ark comes in as a D team...Another cream puff .  However as you can tell by the spread this game will be a little more challenging.  We will win this game but it will not be a 50pt spread. Pine Bluff came to the table with no weapons...that is not the case with C Ark.

Let's see what we are facing

.............................SLU..........................C Ark........................................................SLU.................................C Ark

.............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................A+ 11th ITN............C...............................................................B+......................................F-

FG%.........................A+ 8th ITN.............D+.............................................................C.......................................D+

3Pt%........................A+ 4th ITN.............B...............................................................D+......................................D-

FT%.........................A-... .......................B+.. .......................................................................................................

Reb.........................D+............................C+..............................................................A+ 6th ITN......................D+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)

Assts...Y Collins....26th....up

Rebs...Goodwin....44th....dn

PPG.....Perkins......19th.....dn

FT%.....Perkins....1st.....still 100 way tie

3P%...Hargrove...47th 

 

Stls....Bergersen...19th

Asst...Kayouloud...75th

 

Injury report ....None...yay

So what is the deal with C Ark?....It's all about the Bergersen...In addition to leading in steals, he also leads in FG%, PPG, and Blks.  He is shooting 50% from 3 but is only 2nd as Jones is hitting 60%

WWN2D2W...Stop Bergersen ....hold him to 14pts....if we bother him , his numbers go down.  Bergersen and Jones are their entire outside threat...again if we can avoid giving them the open shot they will not have a good night....They need to have a combined night of less than 30% from the arc. This will be a good time for the Bills to work on 3P defense...one of the few areas they are showing a bit of weakness.

Bottom line....We will win this game ...but unlike the last one, we will have to work at this a bit more. If we take care of business , we will continue to roll.

 

 

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11 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Great game against Pine Bluff ..especially if you are a numbers geek...a lot of good numbers.  If you want to see those numbers, check out the post game post on the Ark PB spread thread.

 If you will let me digress for a moment, we can delve into some good news. The Bills are now an A- team which puts us on target for March Madness.  Some may think it was the 20 extra points against Pine Bluff that pushed us over the top ...but that's not what did it.  It was replacing predictive data with real data.  In other words , if you do what you are supposed to do, (in this case win by at least 31 pts)   the computer rewards you.  Real data is worth more than predictive data.  That is why the 1st 8 games are so important. ....BTW , with 3 games under our belt we now have a trending line too ...The Bills are trending at an A level...You always want to trend higher than your overall grade. For those who are following along Richmond is also at A- and trending at A....so we are in a virtual tie with them right now....which is a good thing for the Bills....It will mean  more when you beat them.

Now back to our regular scheduled game. The C Ark comes in as a D team...Another cream puff .  However as you can tell by the spread this game will be a little more challenging.  We will win this game but it will not be a 50pt spread. Pine Bluff came to the table with no weapons...that is not the case with C Ark.

Let's see what we are facing

.............................SLU..........................C Ark........................................................SLU.................................C Ark

.............................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................A+ 11th ITN............C...............................................................B+......................................F-

FG%.........................A+ 8th ITN.............D+.............................................................C.......................................D+

3Pt%........................A+ 4th ITN.............B...............................................................D+......................................D-

FT%.........................A-... .......................B+.. .......................................................................................................

Reb.........................D+............................C+..............................................................A+ 6th ITN......................D+

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)

Assts...Y Collins....26th....up

Rebs...Goodwin....44th....dn

PPG.....Perkins......19th.....dn

FT%.....Perkins....1st.....still 100 way tie

3P%...Hargrove...47th 

 

Stls....Bergersen...19th

Asst...Kayouloud...75th

 

Injury report ....None...yay

So what is the deal with C Ark?....It's all about the Bergersen...In addition to leading in steals, he also leads in FG%, PPG, and Blks.  He is shooting 50% from 3 but is only 2nd as Jones is hitting 60%

WWN2D2W...Stop Bergersen ....hold him to 14pts....if we bother him , his numbers go down.  Bergersen and Jones are their entire outside threat...again if we can avoid giving them the open shot they will not have a good night....They need to have a combined night of less than 30% from the arc. This will be a good time for the Bills to work on 3P defense...one of the few areas they are showing a bit of weakness.

Bottom line....We will win this game ...but unlike the last one, we will have to work at this a bit more. If we take care of business , we will continue to roll.

 

 

Is this the 1st half projection like you gave us last game? 

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I could see us hitting the spread but I can also see that C. Ark is not a pushover. Very quick PG with three point range, some decent bigs, and Bergersen who can score.
Comparing scores, C. Ark. lost to Little Rock by three. That’s the same Little Rock team that beat Duquesne by 10. I think they create some matchup problems for us and our guys better show up.

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2 hours ago, billikenbill said:

I could see us hitting the spread but I can also see that C. Ark is not a pushover. Very quick PG with three point range, some decent bigs, and Bergersen who can score.
Comparing scores, C. Ark. lost to Little Rock by three. That’s the same Little Rock team that beat Duquesne by 10. I think they create some matchup problems for us and our guys better show up.

-in case there is the remotest chance you care and I doubt there is, I find this post ludicrous as I have a very high level of confidence in our Team, perhaps too high but hoping not

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5 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

Sorry, Cowboy, I watched most of their game with Little Rock. Lost by three to a team that took care of Duquesne. That Duquesne team has many of the same players that beat us by 13 twice last year.

I’m just saying be prepared for a team that, on their best day, could make things interesting.

Little Rock doesn’t play defense like the Billikens play defense. They don’t shoot the ball the way the Billikens shoot the ball. They don’t rebound the way the Billikens rebound. They don’t have Perk. And Central Arkansas still lost. Couldn’t be any less worried about this game.

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6 hours ago, billikenbill said:

I could see us hitting the spread but I can also see that C. Ark is not a pushover. Very quick PG with three point range, some decent bigs, and Bergersen who can score.
Comparing scores, C. Ark. lost to Little Rock by three. That’s the same Little Rock team that beat Duquesne by 10. I think they create some matchup problems for us and our guys better show up.

Billikens by 30!

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This went pretty much as expected ...another cream puff  but more difficult than Pine Bluff....in other words a step up from F to D.

We needed to hold Bergersen to 14...he scored 16...close enough...pass

We need to hold Bergersen and Jones to 30% from the arc...I am going to give this a pass and fail...The fail was they shot 57%...not a surprise as I pointed out in the original post...but I am also going to give us  a pass on 3P shooting because even though the % was high,  they did a minimal amount of damage in that we held them to 7 shots (4-7) The defense kept the number of 3s down. The long term goal though is to still bring the % down. We had a D+ going into the game on 3P shooting.

But this is not something to dwell on. 

Let's look at the good stuff.

First, we made the spread....That indicates that our A- is not a fluke. Making spreads indicates that you are doing what you are supposed to be doing.  Another thing to celebrate was Goodwin becoming  #1 on the all time steals list moving ahead of Anthony Bonner...no small feat.  Also, Goodwin  had another double double  plus 6 stls.  Another standout tonight was Jimerson...led scoring with 21pts even though he had a bad night from 3pt land ...30% (3-10)...The good news was he was 5-6 from inside the arc ...finished the night at a very nice FG% of 50.  The important thing was that he showed he was more than a 3P shooter.  That balance will help the team down the road.  Yuri,  too, almost had a double double finishing with 12pts and an amazing 9 assists.

Overall a good team effort...49/38/83..very respectable. My fav stat was 27 TOs by C Ark...we put enormous pressure on them. Those TOs were worth 30 pts....Ball game.

Finally ...in the opening post I said ...we need to take care of business....we did.

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Thanks Wiz. Really appreciate the time you put into this and the info you provide. Is our soft schedule going to hurt us at some point from a pure quant perspective?  I know enough games haven’t been played to slot everybody yet but our numbers are all over the place between Massey, Kenpom, Warren Nolan, etc. I saw we dropped 21 spots last night on WN’s real time RPI. 
I feel like if we take care of business we will pass the eye test but I worry how soft the schedule is. 

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34 minutes ago, shempie said:

Thanks Wiz. Really appreciate the time you put into this and the info you provide. Is our soft schedule going to hurt us at some point from a pure quant perspective?  I know enough games haven’t been played to slot everybody yet but our numbers are all over the place between Massey, Kenpom, Warren Nolan, etc. I saw we dropped 21 spots last night on WN’s real time RPI. 
I feel like if we take care of business we will pass the eye test but I worry how soft the schedule is. 

If we keep the schedule we have , we should be fine....There is enough difficulty to show that we are "real"...We have Minn coming up ...an A- undefeated B10 team away.  Plus the top tier A-10 teams will bolster our SOS.  As I mentioned elsewhere,  as a Bills fan, you should be rooting for everyone we play to win.

Related to this discussion of schedule and ranking, as a result of last night's win, the numbers have strengthened. We are now an A team....also trending at A. Very solid.  The computer now thinks we are "real".  I haven't said anything about the top 25 to this point, but I think we are ready.....I think a win over Evansville ( by at least 20pts)  on Sat. will push us over the top. Normally , a game against C Ark or Evansville wouldn't matter much. In 2 to 3 weeks from now,  games like these won't move the needle much (unless you lose). But right now, they are more important because they are replacing predictive data with real data.   In the 1st 8 games, to actual win a game by 22 is much better than simulating a 22 pt win. Real is better than predictive.  In another 2 weeks , it will be pretty much all real data.

Back to your original SOS question....the fact that we have reached the A level on this schedule  is proof that the schedule is difficult enough to "prove" ourselves.

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1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

If we keep the schedule we have , we should be fine....There is enough difficulty to show that we are "real"...We have Minn coming up ...an A- undefeated B10 team away.  Plus the top tier A-10 teams will bolster our SOS.  As I mentioned elsewhere,  as a Bills fan, you should be rooting for everyone we play to win.

Related to this discussion of schedule and ranking, as a result of last night's win, the numbers have strengthened. We are now an A team....also trending at A. Very solid.  The computer now thinks we are "real".  I haven't said anything about the top 25 to this point, but I think we are ready.....I think a win over Evansville ( by at least 20pts)  on Sat. will push us over the top. Normally , a game against C Ark or Evansville wouldn't matter much. In 2 to 3 weeks from now,  games like these won't move the needle much (unless you lose). But right now, they are more important because they are replacing predictive data with real data.   In the 1st 8 games, to actual win a game by 22 is much better than simulating a 22 pt win. Real is better than predictive.  In another 2 weeks , it will be pretty much all real data.

Back to your original SOS question....the fact that we have reached the A level on this schedule  is proof that the schedule is difficult enough to "prove" ourselves.

How many A teams do you currently have?

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22 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Just curious Wiz, how many A teams and how many A+ teams in the top 25 rankings?

All 18 A+ teams are in the top 25 plus  7  A teams....The Bills are at 27th, so we are on the cusp...That is why on the post above I said if we beat Evansville by 20  on Sat,  that should be enough to push us over the top.  We will be favored by at least 20 but I have to wait till they play tonight before I can draw up the spread numbers.

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Interesting that Cent Ark outrebounded us 36-35. I wonder if that’s why Travis had Linssen and French on the floor at the same time midway thru second half. CArk did seem to do a good job on their offensive boards thru about 3/4 of the game. Just a thought and wonder if we’ll see more of this rotation. 

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7 hours ago, slu72 said:

Interesting that Cent Ark outrebounded us 36-35. I wonder if that’s why Travis had Linssen and French on the floor at the same time midway thru second half. CArk did seem to do a good job on their offensive boards thru about 3/4 of the game. Just a thought and wonder if we’ll see more of this rotation. 

No reason not to have them on the floor at the same time.  They compliment each other fairly well, better in my opinion than French and Bell.  Linssen has a short jumper and doesn't have to be in the paint all the time.  If we have two bigs to guards, I would expect to see them in together for periods of time.

You might see Bell a little more in the Minnesota game. We’ll need him to lean on their 7footer. 

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This whole issue about having someone play vs someone else and how this affects the total overall performance of the team is fascinating. Take for example this question: did we beat LSU DESPITE the fact that French and Thatch were not playing, or BECAUSE they were not playing? There is no answer to this question, is there? Did the lack of these two players stimulated the rest of the team to play at a different level? Did the absence of French and Thatch force the rest of the team to perform better? This is an empirical question, not one based upon probability or statistics. These kinds of questions are something I really cannot deal with from a probability basis, however, this is something coaches have to deal with. I kind of believe coaches deal with issues like these by the seat of their pants. The good coaches have some empirical ability or can see something that most other coaches do not have or cannot see. I think we are blessed by having Ford as our coach.

 

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