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The Bills over UMass by 2


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38 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

rhodey imo has to beat everyone left on the schedule except dayton.   that 34 can turn to 50+ quickly.    50+ teams are sitting in their lockerroom hoping none of the big conferences tourney champions are upset.   and even then they are probably on the lists first four in or out 

Again, this just isn't true, imo. That 34 is probably up to 28 or 26 in that scenario. If they go 4-2, their NET is between 32-38. Losing to SLU or Davidson is not a bad loss by any stretch. 

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2 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

Again, this just isn't true, imo. That 34 is probably up to 28 or 26 in that scenario. If they go 4-2, their NET is between 32-38. Losing to SLU or Davidson is not a bad loss by any stretch. 

When Roy said, "34," was he talking about NET ranking?  I thought he was talking about tournament bids.

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Back to the UMass game, are we expecting a pretty raucous crowd given UMass fans' disdain for Travis Ford?  I can't recall what the reception was like when we last played there in January 2018.  Paradoxically, I'm wondering if that will help us.  Seems like we've played better in the road games you'd expect to have the most hostile crowds (semi-away vs Auburn & K-State, @Richmond, @Dayton) and played pretty poorly against smaller/moribund fan bases (@LaSalle, @St. Joes, @Duq, @Davidson)

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Just now, RUBillsFan said:

Back to the UMass game, are we expecting a pretty raucous crowd given UMass fans' disdain for Travis Ford?  I can't recall what the reception was like when we last played there in January 2018.  Paradoxically, I'm wondering if that will help us.  Seems like we've played better in the road games you'd expect to have the most hostile crowds (semi-away vs Auburn & K-State, @Richmond, @Dayton) and played pretty poorly against smaller/moribund fan bases (@LaSalle, @St. Joes, @Duq, @Davidson)

Its in our best interest to buy a bunch of tickets and then hand them out for free. 

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24 minutes ago, Billikenbooster said:

Key tomorrow is to start out strong and not let them into the game, a la La Salle.

mhg

Keys to the game - given how the first game against UMass went:

  1. Avoid turnovers - we had 23 in the 1st game (OT) including 7 by Yuri and 6 by Goodwin.  Sean East 4 steals and Keon Clergeot 3 steals can't be allowed to bother us as much as they did in game 1.
  2. Don't put them on the line as much / hope they miss more when they get there.  They made 19 of 24 (79.2%) against us in game 1, but only shoot 68.4% as a team on the season.  Tre Mitchell 9 of 11 (81.8%) vs 69.7% on the season was big factor here.
  3. Contain Tre Mitchell, we did okay against him in the 1st game (5-15 from the field, 6 TOs) except we put him on the line too much (9-11) and he made us pay.  I'm hoping that Bell is up to the challenge especially after doing  a pretty good job on Obi in both Dayton games.  Need to keep French out of foul trouble.
  4. Avoid foul trouble - Perkins fouled out in game 1 in 25 mins, Goodwin & French each had 4, Yuri & Hargrove 3.
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16 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Keys to the game - given how the first game against UMass went:

  1. Avoid turnovers - we had 23 in the 1st game (OT) including 7 by Yuri and 6 by Goodwin.  Sean East 4 steals and Keon Clergeot 3 steals can't be allowed to bother us as much as they did in game 1.
  2. Don't put them on the line as much / hope they miss more when they get there.  They made 19 of 24 (79.2%) against us in game 1, but only shoot 68.4% as a team on the season.  Tre Mitchell 9 of 11 (81.8%) vs 69.7% on the season was big factor here.
  3. Contain Tre Mitchell, we did okay against him in the 1st game (5-15 from the field, 6 TOs) except we put him on the line too much (9-11) and he made us pay.  I'm hoping that Bell is up to the challenge especially after doing  a pretty good job on Obi in both Dayton games.  Need to keep French out of foul trouble.
  4. Avoid foul trouble - Perkins fouled out in game 1 in 25 mins, Goodwin & French each had 4, Yuri & Hargrove 3.

-I agree with this and will add Make shots - they are not a good defense so let's exploit this and crush their will

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First of all, just when you think the A10 will zig, it zags.  It always does.  Case in point ---- Davidson's 30-point win in Olean.

Second,learning this season from three-star ------ match ups.  Overall, I like Rhodey to match up well with Davidson HOWEVER they cannot allow seven different Cats to hit threes.  Dowtin vs. JAG will be key.  Langevine should take Brajkovic.  Russell should negate Collins.  Harris and Jones are washes.  Can Martin equalize Grady?  Rhodey has a slightly better bench.  

 

Hey, b*tch ...... how you been?  

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7 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

Right.  I'm not saying I want this to happen*.  I'm just saying it is a very very very remote possibility.

* - although in my head in this scenario SLU is the #8 seed who goes on the miracle run so that's how I justify thinking about it.

That's fair.  However, I'm thinking the Bills should finish above the 8/9 line by continuing to win.

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1 hour ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

That's fair.  However, I'm thinking the Bills should finish above the 8/9 line by continuing to win.

My scenario has them losing to both Rhody and VCU.  They already lose tie breakers vs Duq and Davidson.  8th place for the Bills in my scenario is probably the least improbable thing about the scenario occurring.

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34 minutes ago, slu72 said:

So will Javonte Perkins and Jordan Goodwin. 

People will sleep on Perkins. Fair enough. Crutcher will be 1st team, I'm sure, and somebody like Russell or Lofton (too lazy to look up their years). Wondering if Perkins sneaks on to a 3rd team this year. He's averaging 17 in conference, 5th in the league.

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1 hour ago, Crewsorlose said:

People will sleep on Perkins. Fair enough. Crutcher will be 1st team, I'm sure, and somebody like Russell or Lofton (too lazy to look up their years). Wondering if Perkins sneaks on to a 3rd team this year. He's averaging 17 in conference, 5th in the league.

Got Grady too. Actually there's a lot of good individual players in the A10 even on the bottom feeders. Take Cosswell of LaSalle, Daly of St Joe's, Battle from GW. It seems each team has at least one stud worthy of all conf honors. The top teams have 2 to 4. 

One thing about UMass is that their best FR, Weeks, is on IR this season. You'd have to verify this w/ Taj Old Retired Guy Mahal 79, who knows the A10 better than most, but UMass is gonna be good next year. The conf appears to be getting stronger. 

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1 hour ago, slu72 said:

Got Grady too. Actually there's a lot of good individual players in the A10 even on the bottom feeders. Take Cosswell of LaSalle, Daly of St Joe's, Battle from GW. It seems each team has at least one stud worthy of all conf honors. The top teams have 2 to 4. 

One thing about UMass is that their best FR, Weeks, is on IR this season. You'd have to verify this w/ Taj Old Retired Guy Mahal 79, who knows the A10 better than most, but UMass is gonna be good next year. The conf appears to be getting stronger. 

A10 will be very strong next year, even stronger than this year because there aren't a ton of key Srs who graduate (UD-Landers & Mikesell, URI-Langevine & Dowtin, Duq-Steele, VCU-Evans&Jenkins, Davidson-JAG) or guys who will leave early (UD-Toppin).  2021-2022 figures to be a down year unless A10 teams can get some good young players to replace current juniors who will depart after next year (UD-Crutcher, Watson, Chatman, URI-Russell, Richmond-basically everyone, Duq-Weathers, Dunn-Martin, Hughes, VCU-MSS, Davidson-Grady, Collins, SLU-Goodwin, French, Perkins).

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3 hours ago, Spoon-Balls said:

How do programs like UMass get these types of players? 

They hired their HS/prep coach.  Mitchell, Santos and Weeks all came with now Assist Coach Tony Bergeron, who was coach at Woodstock Academy where they all played.  Walker also played at Woodstock, a year ahead of the three.   He transferred in from Cleveland State and is playing after sitting the first semester.

They have another incoming next season from Woodstock, 6'5" Cairo McCrory.  Nice pipeline!

Ya think McCall is paying Bergeron Michael Porter Sr. money?

 

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23 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

A10 will be very strong next year, even stronger than this year because there aren't a ton of key Srs who graduate (UD-Landers & Mikesell, URI-Langevine & Dowtin, Duq-Steele, VCU-Evans&Jenkins, Davidson-JAG) or guys who will leave early (UD-Toppin).  2021-2022 figures to be a down year unless A10 teams can get some good young players to replace current juniors who will depart after next year (UD-Crutcher, Watson, Chatman, URI-Russell, Richmond-basically everyone, Duq-Weathers, Dunn-Martin, Hughes, VCU-MSS, Davidson-Grady, Collins, SLU-Goodwin, French, Perkins).

The replacements for the current big 3 are likely already on the team, they're just freshmen (Yuri, Bell) or will play a supporting role next year (Jimerson, Thatch).  We won't be the biggest, baddest dudes in the A10 in 2021-2022.  The identity of the team will change.  I'm sure other teams are in the same boat.  

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