The Bills over UMass by 2

[The Wiz]

A good win for The Bills....though it didn't change the numbers much.  We are still  a B team....We beat a C team...we were supposed to beat them by 9...we beat them by 15...the computer doesn't give you much extra credit for a win past 10 pts.  In other words , we pretty much did what we were supposed to do.  If you need to know how we won ...check the post game post on the LaS spread thread.

For those interested in post season play ...Here is the way it looks to me....Dayton currently has an A and they are in...please note they have slipped a bit recently from A+ to A...but they are still in. Next are the B+ group ...teams that have 1/3 chance of a Dance...they are  RI...Rich & VCU.  With 3 teams  ...chances are one of these will make it....The NCAA is hoping one of these 3 teams win the A-10 tourney and then their job is done....2 teams from the A-10  and that will be good enough. As for The Bills, we are a B team and have a 50-50 chance now at an NIT.....I stated earlier in the season it would take 25 wins,  minimum , to get an at large bid....If we win out the season....6 more wins...and win 2 conf games we would have a 1/3 chance of an NCAA at-lg bid and an 85% chance at an NIT bid.

But first ...we have more games to play...

Next up UMass...As you can see  by the spread...no easy task here. We are currently a B team trending at C+...UMass  is a C team trending at C-...Think of this game as LaS 2.0...an offense about the same ( not good)...and a defense plus rebounding that is worse than LaS.  So then why is it so close.... The UMass home field advantage knocks off 7 pts (home field lost and away field gained.) plus there is  our tendency to play to the competition.

Let's see what we are dealing with...

..............................SLU.........................UMass............................................................SLU.............................UMass

................................................OFF.....................................................................................................DEF...............

PPG.........................C+............................D+.................................................................B......................................D

FG%.........................C..............................D+.................................................................B+....................................F

3Pt%........................C..............................C-..................................................................C......................................C-

FT%.........................F-....2nd WITN..........D... .......................................................................................................

Reb.........................A................................F...................................................................C+.....................................D

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF rebs = opp reb

 Bills  Offensive reb....A+....11th  ITN....Down

Change from last game (UP means improvement ...Down means worse.......UP ....FG%......3P% Def... Opp Reb........DOWN.....none

Top 100 ITN

Stls....Goodwin ...36th.....up

Assts...Y Collins....48th.....down

Rebs...French...12th....Goodwin..17th......unchanged  and up

Off Reb....French ...15th...Goodwin...34th...unchanged  and up

Def reb......French...33rd...Goodwin ...36th....down & up

Blks.....French....20th...down

Dbl-Dbl.. Goodwin....French...26th and 28th

Assts....East ...77th

Report card notes...For the 2nd game in a row our 3P def improved..we are now up to C...a big improvement from D- earlier in the season.  Also,  after  many weeks in the FT basement The Bills have finally escaped the bottom of the heap.  While moving up 1 spot doesn't seem like much at first, The Bills had dug quite a hole ,  being 10% below the next worst team.   A Bills FT% of 67 coupled with an Ark-Pine Bluff rate of 52%. was enough for The Bills to escape the cellar.  If we can crawl over 60% (currently at 58.9%) we can start leapfrogging teams.

Injury report...

Thatch....1/8/20...Out indefinitely...No change

Buggs III...G...12/30/19...OFS...Knee surgery...torn ACL

Weeks...G......1/20/ 20...OFS...Abdominal surgery

OFS = out for season

WWN2D2W...Play like we did in the 1st half of the LaS game...Mr UMass is Tre Mitchell...if left unchecked he can score over 20 pts a game...in the  game against RI  he scored 30....in the last game against Day he scored 26...let's cut that in half to 13 pts. Their only other major threat is Santos from the arc....hold him to one  3PM.     If this is a close game  then TOs will be important and while we should win the TO battle....we won't if we give up 15 again. ...It looks to me like we can average 11 TOs /gm...any time the number goes above that it is usually unforced errors or mistakes.  DOMINATE on reb by double digits... we did that to LaS , a much better reb team then UMass...let's do it again.

Bottom line...On paper , stat wise, this team looks similar to LaS...if that is the case ...let's wash,  rinse and repeat.   Was the game against LaS  a turn of the corner... a step up or just an outlier. The numbers show the potential for The Bills to blow out UMass , if we play our game.... If we play to the competition...to the UMass level, then it will be time to get out the nail clippers. If we play it close and something goes wrong, it will not be a pretty picture.....Let's go for the blowout.

 

 

 

[Crewsorlose]

Thanks Wiz. Always appreciated. My nit to pick would be the NCAA odds. If the season ended today, URI is in easily. VCU and Richmond on the wrong side of the bubble, but one good win and no bad losses puts them on the good side. Better chances that A-10 gets 4 teams than two at this point. If we win out and win 2 in Brooklyn, that means we'd lose in the final. In that scenario, we skate into the tournament and it's not even close to being close. We'd have a NET in the mid 30s. 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Crewsorlose said:

Thanks Wiz. Always appreciated. My nit to pick would be the NCAA odds. If the season ended today, URI is in easily. VCU and Richmond on the wrong side of the bubble, but one good win and no bad losses puts them on the good side. Better chances that A-10 gets 4 teams than two at this point. If we win out and win 2 in Brooklyn, that means we'd lose in the final. In that scenario, we skate into the tournament and it's not even close to being close. We'd have a NET in the mid 30s. 

Two seems likely ...three is possible...4 seems like a stretch.  The problem with 4 teams making it  is they all pretty much have to do the same thing ...win all the rest of their games and a couple of A-10 tourney wins.  The setup for 3 teams is 2 teams not named Dayton,   after winning out the regular season  go to the final against each other...Then you have the A-10 tourney winner plus the A-10  tourney loser  plus Dayton making it to the Dance. I can't see away for the 4th team to make it in...You could make a case for a 4th team to be in but I don't think the NCAA would listen...they have too many P5 teams to choose from.

[RUBillsFan]

13 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Two seems likely ...three is possible...4 seems like a stretch.  The problem with 4 teams making it  is they all pretty much have to do the same thing ...win all the rest of their games and a couple of A-10 tourney wins.  The setup for 3 teams is 2 teams not named Dayton,   after winning out the regular season  go to the final against each other...Then you have the A-10 tourney winner plus the A-10  tourney loser  plus Dayton making it to the Dance. I can't see away for the 4th team to make it in...You could make a case for a 4th team to be in but I don't think the NCAA would listen...they have too many P5 teams to choose from.

It’s not very likely this happens, here is a scenario A10 gets 4 teams: Rhody, VCU,  and Richmond don’t play each other all the rest of the regular season.  Rhody & VCU each still play Dayton.  In a scenario where all 3 of those teams win out (w Rhody & VCU each beating Dayton), I think you have 4 A10 teams on the right side of the bubble heading into the A10 tournament.  They’d be the top 4 teams and all get the bye.  Assuming none lose their 1st games / all make the quarterfinals,  all would be in the NCAAs pretty easily regardless of who actually wins the A10.  There’s probably a scenario similarly to this one where a different team knocks off Dayton early in the A10 tournament, goes on to win it, and the A10 has 5 teams in the field.

[Reinert310]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

Two seems likely ...three is possible...4 seems like a stretch.  The problem with 4 teams making it  is they all pretty much have to do the same thing ...win all the rest of their games and a couple of A-10 tourney wins.  The setup for 3 teams is 2 teams not named Dayton,   after winning out the regular season  go to the final against each other...Then you have the A-10 tourney winner plus the A-10  tourney loser  plus Dayton making it to the Dance. I can't see away for the 4th team to make it in...You could make a case for a 4th team to be in but I don't think the NCAA would listen...they have too many P5 teams to choose from.

Hey Wiz, I totally agree with what you're saying, just posting a hypothetical for the fun of it. Obviously, I don't know what the A10 seedings will be, but let's assume Dayton and Rhodey are the top 2 seeds (probably a pretty safe bet). Now let's assume our Billikens beat Dayton in the semis and, for the sake of argument, Richmond beats Rhodey in the semis. Then we beat Richmond in the Final. Obviously, Bills and Dayton are in the dance. Who do you think gets left out between Richmond and Rhodey, or do you think both get in? 

[BJK]

1 hour ago, RUBillsFan said:

It’s not very likely this happens, here is a scenario A10 gets 4 teams: Rhody, VCU,  and Richmond don’t play each other all the rest of the regular season.  Rhody & VCU each still play Dayton.  In a scenario where all 3 of those teams win out (w Rhody & VCU each beating Dayton), I think you have 4 A10 teams on the right side of the bubble heading into the A10 tournament.  They’d be the top 4 teams and all get the bye.  Assuming none lose their 1st games / all make the quarterfinals,  all would be in the NCAAs pretty easily regardless of who actually wins the A10.  There’s probably a scenario similarly to this one where a different team knocks off Dayton early in the A10 tournament, goes on to win it, and the A10 has 5 teams in the field.

Five teams is impossible. Wiz has it right... RI has the best chance of an at large and anybody else just needs to win the tourney for a shot. Thems just the facts. Rhody beats dayton and they are in. They lose to UD and win out with a Solid A10 tourney run they are in. VCU even with beating SVU in a home game is a stretch but if they do that and show well in the tourney then they have a shot. Richmond doesn’t have the games left on the schedule to impress anyone.

[Compton]

1 hour ago, BJK said:

RI has the best chance of an at large and anybody else just needs to win the tourney for a shot.

Dayton has the best chance of an at large. 

 

[Old guy]

We have come close to beating Dayton twice this season but did not succeed. It would be great if we did it in the A10 tournament.

[The Wiz]

In regards to post season play,  in the post above , I was trying to point out what is most probable not what was possible.  As I mentioned ,  there are 3 teams now that have  1 chance in 3 of getting an at large bid...with those odds,  1 team is likely to make it which would give the A-10 2 bids...coupled with the fact that those 3 teams have the highest probability of finishing with at least 2 A-10 tourney wins... again making  one  of them highly likely to get a bid.  If Dayton doesn't wind up in the final game then there is a possibility of 3 teams making it.  But there are no givens....If Dayton finishes 1st in the A-10 AND wins the A-10 tourney...then the NCAA might  give the A-10 just one bid.  Again I think 2 is most likely.  

in addition there are 3 more teams that are still in the running that have  a chance to get to the B+ level by the end of the season. ....St. B . ,Duq. and The Bills....So it is not just about the 3 teams listed above...Any of 6 teams  that can reach the B+ level will have a chance. (1 in 3) to make the Dance

As for The Bills, they have a steep road to climb...Unlike RI , Rich and VCU who are already at B+....we still have to get there from B... again not easy since we have been at B almost all season.   At large bid for The Bills ??? ...possible but not probable.  For us to win out and take 2 in the tourney is about the same as shuffling a deck of cards , dealing out 5 and winding up with a straight.  We would  be better off finishing in the top 4 of the A-10 and winning the tourney out right for the auto bid...also not easy...but better odds....like rolling a 5 with a pair of dice.

 

It is a truth very certain that, when it is not in our power to determine what is most true,  we ought to follow what is most probable.

                                                                                                Descartes...1637

[slu72]

Most likely scenario is we get in 2.  SVU for sure either thru a tourney win or an at large. The #2 team will either get in via the tourney win, or one of the top 5 or 6 makes it to the tourney championship game but loses. SVU will get in even if they lose their first tourney game. Then we get another in via the tourney win, but unlikely the loser of that game makes it. Right now my pick besides SVU is RI, but, of course, that's subject to change going forward. I don't see 3 from the A10 as we will  see some surprises in the conf tourneys, and that may well open the door for a mid major conf besides the A10 getting in two teams, eg Zaga doesn't win their tourney, so their conf gets in 2 teams. Same holds true for SD state. Not sure what other mids might be in a similar situation. The committee will bend over backwards for the P6 or 7 conferences. 

[wgstl]

13 hours ago, The Wiz said:

 

Bottom line...On paper , stat wise, this team looks similar to LaS...if that is the case ...let's wash,  rinse and repeat.   Was the game against LaS  a turn of the corner... a step up or just an outlier. The numbers show the potential for The Bills to blow out UMass , if we play our game.... If we play to the competition...to the UMass level, then it will be time to get out the nail clippers. If we play it close and something goes wrong, it will not be a pretty picture.....Let's go for the blowout.

 

 

 

Not disagreeing that they arent similar on paper, but having a hard time believing that they are even remotely close in skill. Umass has a ton of talent, but the youth has been an issue.  La Salle just isn't good. 

[3star_recruit]

33 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Most likely scenario is we get in 2.  SVU for sure either thru a tourney win or an at large. The #2 team will either get in via the tourney win, or one of the top 5 or 6 makes it to the tourney championship game but loses. SVU will get in even if they lose their first tourney game. Then we get another in via the tourney win, but unlikely the loser of that game makes it. Right now my pick besides SVU is RI, but, of course, that's subject to change going forward. I don't see 3 from the A10 as we will  see some surprises in the conf tourneys, and that may well open the door for a mid major conf besides the A10 getting in two teams, eg Zaga doesn't win their tourney, so their conf gets in 2 teams. Same holds true for SD state. Not sure what other mids might be in a similar situation. The committee will bend over backwards for the P6 or 7 conferences. 

Unless Rhode Island and Dayton are the two teams in the A10 finals or a bottom feeder sneaks into the A10 finals, we're getting 3 teams. The third team, whoever it is, will have at least 24 wins or will win the tournament outright.  That's good enough to get in this year.  We're arguably the best mid-major conference in basketball.

[Taj79]

Two things bother me about tomorrow ....Umass' youth getting better and the fact that we don't do well on the road.  We have lost to Duquesne and Davidson badly on the road.  DXouble digit losses.  We were taken to OT by La Salle  onthe road and struggled with the Joeys.  We did well at Dayton (props to three-star's match up call) and i have no real clue how we dominated at Richmond.  That is the lone outlier.

Umass is one strange group.  They gave us a run at home losing by three.  Sean East ate Yuri alive.  The put four guys in double figures.  Their four A10 wins have all come at home --- La Salle, the Joeys, Mason and Duquesne.  In other words, they've beaten likely PIG participants but then there is the Duquesne game which they won by nine.  Yet they've lost at home to Geedubya when Geedubya was 1 and 3 in conference.  

Mitchell remains a load but I think Jimmy Bell can neutralize him better than someof Bell's other match ups because Mitchell isn't as athletic as a Obi Toppin of Cyril Langevine.  We shall see.  BIG game.  If we can get to 12 and 6 in league play, meaning only one loss the rest of the way and I'm saying that is at Rhodey, I like our chances.  We'll be up for VCU ---- cannot be down for either Umass or Mason.

[Billiken Rich]

5 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Two things bother me about tomorrow ....Umass' youth getting better and the fact that we don't do well on the road.  We have lost to Duquesne and Davidson badly on the road.  DXouble digit losses.  We were taken to OT by La Salle  onthe road and struggled with the Joeys.  We did well at Dayton (props to three-star's match up call) and i have no real clue how we dominated at Richmond.  That is the lone outlier.

Umass is one strange group.  They gave us a run at home losing by three.  Sean East ate Yuri alive.  The put four guys in double figures.  Their four A10 wins have all come at home --- La Salle, the Joeys, Mason and Duquesne.  In other words, they've beaten likely PIG participants but then there is the Duquesne game which they won by nine.  Yet they've lost at home to Geedubya when Geedubya was 1 and 3 in conference.  

Mitchell remains a load but I think Jimmy Bell can neutralize him better than someof Bell's other match ups because Mitchell isn't as athletic as a Obi Toppin of Cyril Langevine.  We shall see.  BIG game.  If we can get to 12 and 6 in league play, meaning only one loss the rest of the way and I'm saying that is at Rhodey, I like our chances.  We'll be up for VCU ---- cannot be down for either Umass or Mason.

Perkins, French, and Goodwinn get two fouls each in the first five minutes and and yeah we'll struggle to beat Umass.  Sucks to be on the road in the A10 unless your name is Obi.....

[Crewsorlose]

30 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Most likely scenario is we get in 2.  SVU for sure either thru a tourney win or an at large. The #2 team will either get in via the tourney win, or one of the top 5 or 6 makes it to the tourney championship game but loses. SVU will get in even if they lose their first tourney game. Then we get another in via the tourney win, but unlikely the loser of that game makes it. Right now my pick besides SVU is RI, but, of course, that's subject to change going forward. I don't see 3 from the A10 as we will  see some surprises in the conf tourneys, and that may well open the door for a mid major conf besides the A10 getting in two teams, eg Zaga doesn't win their tourney, so their conf gets in 2 teams. Same holds true for SD state. Not sure what other mids might be in a similar situation. The committee will bend over backwards for the P6 or 7 conferences. 

These things just aren't true. URI has to fall flat on their face not to get an at-large bid. Their NET is 32 and they beat Alabama and Providence, and lost to Maryland and WVU OOC. Odds are they go 3-2 or 4-1. Either way it's skating to an at-large unless they go 2-3. VCU put itself on the wrong side of the bubble by losing 3 of 4. They probably need to go 5-1 to be safely in. Richmond has an easy last six games. They're not getting left out if they go 5-1 down the stretch, putting them at 14-4 in league. They beat Wisconsin on a neutral court. My guess is VCU continues to slide. Richmond finishes hot (and the committee will forgive them for the slide in the Francis-less games). That's three teams, and if VCU or SLU gets hot, that could be a 4th. 

The committee IS NOT BIASED AGAINST US. This is a misconception. They do care a lot about OOC strength of schedule, and non P-6 teams struggle here because nobody in the ACC is taking a home and home with us. But the new emphasis on neutral and road court victories in the NET rankings has cracked open the door a bit. Teams like Liberty get hosed on Selection Sunday because their NC SOS is 325, not because of bias. 

[RUBillsFan]

11 hours ago, BJK said:

Five teams is impossible. Wiz has it right... RI has the best chance of an at large and anybody else just needs to win the tourney for a shot. Thems just the facts. Rhody beats dayton and they are in. They lose to UD and win out with a Solid A10 tourney run they are in. VCU even with beating SVU in a home game is a stretch but if they do that and show well in the tourney then they have a shot. Richmond doesn’t have the games left on the schedule to impress anyone.

Five teams in is extremely unlikely, but not impossible.  The odds of Rhody, VCU, and Richmond winning out and Dayton's losses only coming against Rhody & VCU are roughly 0.02% according to the odds KenPom has listed for each game.  Further, you'd need the A10 tournament to play out exactly perfect with a team beating Dayton in UD's first game & going on to win the title with Rhody, VCU, and Richmond each advancing as far as possible.  I'm not sure what the odds of that are, but I'm guessing very slim as well.

[wgstl]

2 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Five teams in is extremely unlikely, but not impossible.  The odds of Rhody, VCU, and Richmond winning out and Dayton's losses only coming against Rhody & VCU are roughly 0.02% according to the odds KenPom has listed for each game.  Further, you'd need the A10 tournament to play out exactly perfect with a team beating Dayton in UD's first game & going on to win the title with Rhody, VCU, and Richmond each advancing as far as possible.  I'm not sure what the odds of that are, but I'm guessing very slim as well.

its practically impossible because those teams sorta all play each other too. While Net is important, the number of Wins is also important. 

[RUBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, wgstl said:

its practically impossible because those teams sorta all play each other too. While Net is important, the number of Wins is also important. 

In the scenario I'm talking about here is where everyone finishes:

1. Dayton - 27-5 overall, 16-2 in A10, 0-1 in A10 tourney

2. Rhody - 25-7 overall, 16-2 in A10, 1-1 in A10 tourney

3. Richmond - 27-7 overall, 15-3 in A10, 2-1 in A10 tourney

4. VCU - 24-9 overall, 13-5 in A10, 1-1 in A10 tourney

8 or 9 seed: wins A10 tourney with wins over 8 or 9, Dayton, VCU, and Richmond.

VCU is the only one that's even "on the bubble" in that scenario.  They'd have home wins vs LSU, Richmond, Dayton, and North Texas (likely C-USA champ) to go with road wins over SLU & Davidson.  Only bad losses would be at home vs George Mason and possibly in the A10 semis vs 8 or 9 seed.

It is practically impossible because the odds of the games going exactly so are minuscule, but it has nothing to do with the teams playing each other.  I'm factoring that into my analysis.

[slu72]

35 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:

These things just aren't true. URI has to fall flat on their face not to get an at-large bid. Their NET is 32 and they beat Alabama and Providence, and lost to Maryland and WVU OOC. Odds are they go 3-2 or 4-1. Either way it's skating to an at-large unless they go 2-3. VCU put itself on the wrong side of the bubble by losing 3 of 4. They probably need to go 5-1 to be safely in. Richmond has an easy last six games. They're not getting left out if they go 5-1 down the stretch, putting them at 14-4 in league. They beat Wisconsin on a neutral court. My guess is VCU continues to slide. Richmond finishes hot (and the committee will forgive them for the slide in the Francis-less games). That's three teams, and if VCU or SLU gets hot, that could be a 4th. 

The committee IS NOT BIASED AGAINST US. This is a misconception. They do care a lot about OOC strength of schedule, and non P-6 teams struggle here because nobody in the ACC is taking a home and home with us. But the new emphasis on neutral and road court victories in the NET rankings has cracked open the door a bit. Teams like Liberty get hosed on Selection Sunday because their NC SOS is 325, not because of bias. 

This might work, but you're not taking into consideration mid major tourney upsets. There will likely be a few. Just not sure how the committee will handle a mid major reg season conf champ that loses. Granted, teams like Zaga, SVU, and SD have nothing to worry about if it happens to them. 

[wgstl]

6 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

In the scenario I'm talking about here is where everyone finishes:

1. Dayton - 27-5 overall, 16-2 in A10, 0-1 in A10 tourney

2. Rhody - 25-7 overall, 16-2 in A10, 1-1 in A10 tourney

3. Richmond - 27-7 overall, 15-3 in A10, 2-1 in A10 tourney

4. VCU - 24-9 overall, 13-5 in A10, 1-1 in A10 tourney

8 or 9 seed: wins A10 tourney with wins over 8 or 9, Dayton, VCU, and Richmond.

VCU is the only one that's even "on the bubble" in that scenario.  They'd have home wins vs LSU, Richmond, Dayton, and North Texas (likely C-USA champ) to go with road wins over SLU & Davidson.  Only bad losses would be at home vs George Mason and possibly in the A10 semis vs 8 or 9 seed.

It is practically impossible because the odds of the games going exactly so are minuscule, but it has nothing to do with the teams playing each other.  I'm factoring that into my analysis.

now that I see a breakdown, you're right.  But also right that its still almost virtually impossible based on everything going that way.

[Quality Is Job 1]

1 hour ago, RUBillsFan said:

In the scenario I'm talking about here is where everyone finishes:

1. Dayton - 27-5 overall, 16-2 in A10, 0-1 in A10 tourney

2. Rhody - 25-7 overall, 16-2 in A10, 1-1 in A10 tourney

3. Richmond - 27-7 overall, 15-3 in A10, 2-1 in A10 tourney

4. VCU - 24-9 overall, 13-5 in A10, 1-1 in A10 tourney

8 or 9 seed: wins A10 tourney with wins over 8 or 9, Dayton, VCU, and Richmond.

VCU is the only one that's even "on the bubble" in that scenario.  They'd have home wins vs LSU, Richmond, Dayton, and North Texas (likely C-USA champ) to go with road wins over SLU & Davidson.  Only bad losses would be at home vs George Mason and possibly in the A10 semis vs 8 or 9 seed.

It is practically impossible because the odds of the games going exactly so are minuscule, but it has nothing to do with the teams playing each other.  I'm factoring that into my analysis.

Why are we devising scenarios in which SLU isn't winning?  The Bills are going to beat VCU Friday, so VCU won't be able to fulfill that scenario.

[billiken_roy]

2 hours ago, 3star_recruit said:

Unless Rhode Island and Dayton are the two teams in the A10 finals or a bottom feeder sneaks into the A10 finals, we're getting 3 teams. The third team, whoever it is, will have at least 24 wins or will win the tournament outright.  That's good enough to get in this year.  We're arguably the best mid-major conference in basketball.

i think this is close to reality.   if the tourney was drawn up today, i think it is right on the mark.   but rhode island cant f here forward either.   

if rhodey wins what they are supposed to then and neither them nor dayton win in brooklyn.   we get three. 

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, Crewsorlose said:

These things just aren't true. URI has to fall flat on their face not to get an at-large bid. Their NET is 32 and they beat Alabama and Providence, and lost to Maryland and WVU OOC. Odds are they go 3-2 or 4-1. Either way it's skating to an at-large unless they go 2-3. VCU put itself on the wrong side of the bubble by losing 3 of 4. They probably need to go 5-1 to be safely in. Richmond has an easy last six games. They're not getting left out if they go 5-1 down the stretch, putting them at 14-4 in league. They beat Wisconsin on a neutral court. My guess is VCU continues to slide. Richmond finishes hot (and the committee will forgive them for the slide in the Francis-less games). That's three teams, and if VCU or SLU gets hot, that could be a 4th. 

The committee IS NOT BIASED AGAINST US. This is a misconception. They do care a lot about OOC strength of schedule, and non P-6 teams struggle here because nobody in the ACC is taking a home and home with us. But the new emphasis on neutral and road court victories in the NET rankings has cracked open the door a bit. Teams like Liberty get hosed on Selection Sunday because their NC SOS is 325, not because of bias. 

rhodey imo has to beat everyone left on the schedule except dayton.   that 34 can turn to 50+ quickly.    50+ teams are sitting in their lockerroom hoping none of the big conferences tourney champions are upset.   and even then they are probably on the lists first four in or out 

[RUBillsFan]

21 minutes ago, Quality Is Job 1 said:

Why are we devising scenarios in which SLU isn't winning?  The Bills are going to beat VCU Friday, so VCU won't be able to fulfill that scenario.

Right.  I'm not saying I want this to happen*.  I'm just saying it is a very very very remote possibility.

* - although in my head in this scenario SLU is the #8 seed who goes on the miracle run so that's how I justify thinking about it.

[RUBillsFan]

14 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

rhodey imo has to beat everyone left on the schedule except dayton.   that 34 can turn to 50+ quickly.    50+ teams are sitting in their lockerroom hoping none of the big conferences tourney champions are upset.   and even then they are probably on the lists first four in or out 

Big game for Rhody coming up @ Davidson on Saturday.  That's the only game other game besides Dayton that they won't be heavily favored to win.  Good news for Rhody is that they have the bye week to prepare.