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Looking at the next week, by the end of Wednesday February 20th, all A-10 teams will have played the same amount of games with 5 remaining. 

Lets assume based on win probability that the top 8 in the standings looks like this:

T1. DAV 11-2

T1. VCU 11-2

3. GM 9-4

T4. SLU 8-5

T4. DAY 8-5

T4. DUQ 8-5

T4. BONA 8-5

T8. URI 6-7

T8. LAS 6-7

 

Our last 5 games of the season are: @DAY, @VCU, vs GM, vs DUQ , and @ BONA

Ww pretty much play all top 4 (not including tiebreakers) teams until the end of the season after the LaSalle game.

Defending home court will be extremely important. Win those two and take one on the road, we probably get 5 or 6. Get two on the road could be enough to get us to top 4 and a bye.

lets play our best basketball of the season. Go Bills

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We could win out, and still not make the Top 4.  We are two losses behind fourth place with seven to play.   

I'm penciling in Davidson and VCU as two of the Top Four.  Davidson is 3, actually 4, games up on SLU.  If we tie Davidson, they have the first tie breaker with the head to head win.  Davidson's toughest game left is Dayton at home.  I can't see them losing 4 of 7. They are a three headed monster.  

VCU has Dayton and Mason left, plus they play SLU at home.  If we win out, beating VCU in the process, and they lose v Dayton and Mason, we would jump over them.  Highly unlikely in my book, but possible.  They also play Rhody at home.  VCU is probably the deepest team in the A10 so fouls or injuries won't crush them.

We would need Mason to lose two.  Mason has only six to play.  We win out means one Mason loss, but in the VCU paragraph I put them as a W against VCU.  Hmmm.  If we win out and they lose two, we have the tie breaker.  So best if VCU beats them, I think.  Mason plays at Bonnie and home with Duquesne.  

Dayton has both VCU at home and go on the road to Davidson.  If we win out, that means we have any tiebreaker with them.

I'm discounting Duquesne, as our winning out gives them 6 losses.  They play at Mason and against Dayton at home, so they still could have a major impact.  St. Bonnie and LaSalle both have the same number of L's as we do, with eight to play for them, so they both are still in contention for a Top Four.

Best case scenarios, Mason loses to VCU after we beat them here.  Second, VCU beats Dayton this weekend and then we take them down at Dayton.

If we don't win out, top four is extremely difficult to see.  But as the A10 has shown, any team can bite you on any given night.  It ain't over until it's over.  Just win baby.

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35 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

We could win out, and still not make the Top 4.  We are two losses behind fourth place with seven to play.   

I'm penciling in Davidson and VCU as two of the Top Four.  Davidson is 3, actually 4, games up on SLU.  If we tie Davidson, they have the first tie breaker with the head to head win.  Davidson's toughest game left is Dayton at home.  I can't see them losing 4 of 7. They are a three headed monster.  

VCU has Dayton and Mason left, plus they play SLU at home.  If we win out, beating VCU in the process, and they lose v Dayton and Mason, we would jump over them.  Highly unlikely in my book, but possible.  They also play Rhody at home.  VCU is probably the deepest team in the A10 so fouls or injuries won't crush them.

We would need Mason to lose two.  Mason has only six to play.  We win out means one Mason loss, but in the VCU paragraph I put them as a W against VCU.  Hmmm.  If we win out and they lose two, we have the tie breaker.  So best if VCU beats them, I think.  Mason plays at Bonnie and home with Duquesne.  

Dayton has both VCU at home and go on the road to Davidson.  If we win out, that means we have any tiebreaker with them.

I'm discounting Duquesne, as our winning out gives them 6 losses.  They play at Mason and against Dayton at home, so they still could have a major impact.  St. Bonnie and LaSalle both have the same number of L's as we do, with eight to play for them, so they both are still in contention for a Top Four.

Best case scenarios, Mason loses to VCU after we beat them here.  Second, VCU beats Dayton this weekend and then we take them down at Dayton.

If we don't win out, top four is extremely difficult to see.  But as the A10 has shown, any team can bite you on any given night.  It ain't over until it's over.  Just win baby.

Random thought, does not getting a first round bye help with at least NIT chances?  Add another win, to the list.  I know technically it hurts our odds to win to win the A10 tournament, but having an NIT to fall back on if the chance is there isnt the worst.

 

Obviously this is if we put together a strong last 6 games

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Predictions and projections are fool's gold, right kshoe?.  Someone will rise up and screw the pooch somewhere .. just as Umass tried at Mason the other night.  I think your analysis of the above is pretty good, but that means the status quo gets maintained.  Of all the games between now and February 20th, I think the two linchpin games are VCU at Dayton and Mason at the Bunnies. 

I fully expect Dayton to prevail tomorrow hosting VCU.  I fully expect 13,000+ Daytites packing the Triple D and swaying the tide to a team obviously less talented than their opponents.  It will mimick Super Bowl proportions to the Daytities and they will be in full voice and dressed as stupidly as possible to get some NBC SN network air time on the front row.  Dayton went to VCU and lost by only five earlier this year and that game was decided in the last minute.  Plus, Dayton will have had a week off to scout and rest as needed. 

On Sunday, Mason goes to Olean and the Bunnies are just too weird for me right now.  Lose by 30 at home to VCU, clobber the Joeys on the road by 25.  Mason is doing well without Jaire Grayer but Justin Kier has slacked off some.  I really like two new starters at Mason, 6'2" sophomore Javon Greene and 6'6" Freshman Jordan Miller.  Those two give much more versatility to the Mason lineup over Calixte and Mar.  I hope you are right and the Bunnies take them out but SBU is just so weird.

All we can do is .... paraphrase..... go see the kids play.  I think four is shot.  Loses at home to Davidson and Richmond killed us.

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The realistic path to a top 4 seed involves SLU only losing one more game down the stretch. That would presumably be @ VCU.

IF that occurs, it means we hang another loss on Dayton and George Mason and they'd each have 4 with us having the tie-breaker. So then both of those teams need to lose 2 more games. Plenty of chances for Dayton with games against VCU, @ Davidson and two more road games. George Mason has an easier path with the road game being at St. Bon and home against VCU looking tough.

The hardest part of everything above is really SLU only losing one more game. But its not impossible.

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The one game I really want us to win is at St Bonnie.  That place is in our heads.  I would love us to knock the Brown Indians back out of Oleans and back to irrevelance where they belong.  Of course being in the top 4 would be great, but to me, ending the regular season on a high note with a happy flight would be awesome!

mhg

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Just watched the Joeys fall to Davidson.  Final was 80 to 72.  Much like last Friday, the Joeys came out bombing.  They made 10 three point jumpers in the first half including a Taylor Funk bank shot as the clock expired at half for a 42 to 35 lead.  They finished with 12 made, the last one by Clover with 16:06 to go.  Where was that failure last Friday?

Charlie Brown picked up his third and fourth foul in a minute, 14 seconds into the half and was gone from the 16:33 mark to the under four timeout.  BOOM!  Jared Bynum was a no-show, finishing with 6.  A tale of two halves.  

Davidson might have the A10 POY again this year but it won't be Grady following in Aldridge's footstep, it will be Gudmundsson.  Kid is savvy.  Twenty-one points, seven assists, six rebounds, one foul, two turnovers.  

Another evening having to listen to too much Joe Lunardi.

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37 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Just watched the Joeys fall to Davidson.  Final was 80 to 72.  Much like last Friday, the Joeys came out bombing.  They made 10 three point jumpers in the first half including a Taylor Funk bank shot as the clock expired at half for a 42 to 35 lead.  They finished with 12 made, the last one by Clover with 16:06 to go.  Where was that failure last Friday?

Charlie Brown picked up his third and fourth foul in a minute, 14 seconds into the half and was gone from the 16:33 mark to the under four timeout.  BOOM!  Jared Bynum was a no-show, finishing with 6.  A tale of two halves.  

Davidson might have the A10 POY again this year but it won't be Grady following in Aldridge's footstep, it will be Gudmundsson.  Kid is savvy.  Twenty-one points, seven assists, six rebounds, one foul, two turnovers.  

Another evening having to listen to too much Joe Lunardi.

That was a fun game to watch.  Steph Curry was IN THE HOUSE and the Wildcats were wearing Curry high-vis yellow shoes.  After the game Curry went into the student section, the front row of which were dressed in Speedo's.  

Wildcats didn't need Grady tonight.  Gudmundsson with 21, Frampton with 18 and Pritchett with 18.  Brajkovic (one point short of a double double) had maybe the best assist of the year.  With his back to the basket, in the paint, he hit a backdoor cutter with a blind behind his head one arm pass.   

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Brajkovic's pass was nice.  Magic Johnson-esque.  The Joeys ran out of gas ---- short bench and Brown saddled with four. 

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Given what Davidson is doing this year, coupled with the fact they stand to lose no one, should serve notice and make them the odds-on favorite for 2019-2020.  Of course, they will be the exact same team as this year, only one commit is in the McKillop hopper ----- and he's a 6;10" beanpole from Denmark (imagine that!).  

After this season of viewing, I am 1000% convinced that Davidson is all Jon Axel Icelander.  He's not as flashy and smooth as H Waldman was, but he controls the game just as efficiently.  They can compete when Grsady has an off night.  They can't when JAG goes silent.  Too bad his kid brother wasn't half the player he is.

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14 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

Given what Davidson is doing this year, coupled with the fact they stand to lose no one, should serve notice and make them the odds-on favorite for 2019-2020.  Of course, they will be the exact same team as this year, only one commit is in the McKillop hopper ----- and he's a 6;10" beanpole from Denmark (imagine that!).  

After this season of viewing, I am 1000% convinced that Davidson is all Jon Axel Icelander.  He's not as flashy and smooth as H Waldman was, but he controls the game just as efficiently.  They can compete when Grsady has an off night.  They can't when JAG goes silent.  Too bad his kid brother wasn't half the player he is.

At one point Grady was projected to be a first round pick.  If his stock hasnt fallen would he potentially leave for the draft?

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He could.  But given his season to date, I'd recommend he put in another year's worth of work.  I don't even see him as best player on his team right now (thanks Captain Obvious --- that's a dig at me).

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29 minutes ago, Westy03 said:

At one point Grady was projected to be a first round pick.  If his stock hasnt fallen would he potentially leave for the draft?

Grady missed four OOC games having arthroscopic surgery to remove damaged cartilage in the knee.  That is a pretty quick return from being scoped.  So how much did/has that impacted his season?  Grady still is the Wildcats leading scorer at 16.7 ppg, but that is down from last season's 18.0 ppg.  His shooting % are down from last season also. 

Davidson went 1-3 in his absence.  The losses were to NC, Wake (by 4), and Temple (by 2 in OT).  If he had been healthy and played those four, who knows where they would be in the At Large discussion at perhaps 21-4 rather than 19-6.

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I think they do go 4 and 0  in that run.  And maybe Grady's numbers are better.  If Santos, Henriquez, Bishop, Graves, Gordon .... yada, yada.  Injuries happen.  Some would say 'boo hoo' for Kellan, others might say 'damn lucky it wasn't a completely torn ACL.' Really you don't know.

I don't see Grady lighting it up over and above some others in this league right now.  Charlie Brown.  Javon Bess.  Pookie Powell.  Grant Golden. Jacob Gilyard.  Courtney Stockard.  He is just 'another guy' right now.  He is not Andrew Nicholson, DeAndre Bemby, Jaylen Adams.  He's really a decent shooting guard in a league of decent mid-range scorers.  He shoots 45% from the field, 32% from three, and 76% from the line.  Decent?  Absolutely.  Pick-me-pick-me-eye-popping?  I don't think so.  But if Obi Toppin can get drafted on potential, just like Greek Freak 2.0, then sure.  

One of 30 .... or even 60 ... picks?  I don't see it.  But there is time.  He closes with an unconscious run, then yeah, I can see it happening.  

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Duquesne up 47 to 41 at half over Geedubya at the Duct Center.  Its a three-point track meet.  Geedubya 6 of ten; Duquesne 9-of-21.

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The linchpins broke right for us as both Dayton and Mason lose.  The Bunnies absolutely buried Mason from the start today, jumping out to a 16 to 0 lead and never looking back.  Otis Livingstone went down lame in the second half but it would not have mattered.  Kyle Lofton was absolutely unconscious, going off for 32.  And he's a freshman point folks.  What I did not know is that he was the point guard for last year's prep school national champions.  And when he decided on the Bunnies, he brought four-star center Osun Osunniyi with him.  Osunniyi had offers from Syracuse and Georgetown.  And he CHOSE Olean?!?!  Stockard added 17 and Welch 10.  UNLV transfer Poyser is back, but has failed to become much of a contributor right now.

It got so bad for Mason, Paulsen went with little used reserves Wilson, Hartwell and Douglas-Stanley for the entire second half.  OJT I guess.  We are a game back of third; half a game back of fourth, tied for fifth with the Bunnies only a half game behind us and Duquesne.

Linchpins games this week include Dayton at Davidson on Tuesday.  Go Wildcats.  A Dayton loss and the three-way tie is there for next weekend.  Davidson is 12 and 0 at Belk this year; Dayton is 4 and 3 on the road.  Also Tuesday, Rhodey travels to VCU.  VCU is 12 and 1 at home while Rhodey is 3 and 7 on the road and comes off two straight losses at home.  A Rhodey loss eliminates them fromseriously challenging us in the conference race.  On Friday,Davidson goes to Rhode Island. Hmmmm.

Saturday the games speak for themselves:  us at Dayton and Duquesne at Mason.  Both tip at 4 EST.

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St. Bonaventure has joined the party, a half game back of us and the Dukes.  LaSalle visits the Reilly Center on Wednesday, and if the Bonnies win they pull into a three way tie for fifth with us and the Dukes.  They have six left, with Duquesne and our Bills visiting, and a trip to Davidson.  They have already beaten Duquesne at Pitt.  Their freshman PG Lofton has found his stroke, averaging 16.1 ppg in conference, second only to our town's Stockard.16.3 pg

There really are seven teams alive for the four bye's, but Davidson and VCU are sitting nice for the first two. So make it five for two.

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Of the top 7 teams, we have the toughest schedule with all five games against other teams in top 7. Duquesne has four games of its five vs. top 7, and the others have easier schedule, each with only two or three games vs. top 7. It will be great stretch of must-win games - based on schedule we are unlikely to get much help.

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18 minutes ago, brownindians said:

Wow and now the Billiken Bullies are calling the the " bunnies " .   Let me worn you that your trip to Otterville will not be a pleasant one. Watch this video if you dare to see what the " bunnies " will do. ( just skip the ad )

 

Brown Indians is racist right? 

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1 hour ago, brownindians said:

Wow and now the Billiken Bullies are calling the the " bunnies " .   Let me worn you that your trip to Otterville will not be a pleasant one. Watch this video if you dare to see what the " bunnies " will do. ( just skip the ad )

 

kudos just for posting one of the greatest monty python scenes ever.   thanks for the laugh even though it has nothing to do with the billikens.  

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