The Wiz Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Let's lead with the report card...... ....................SLU...............OFF.............St.J.....................................SLU....................DEF..................St. J PPG..............F+......................................C ......................................A-.............................................D+ FG%.............D-......................................F- ......................................C+...............................................C+ 3P%.............F........................................F........................................C-................................................C FT%.............D-.....................................D-.................................................................................................. Reb............C.......................................B........................................B+..................................................F- Top performers in the nation Steals... Goodwin....31st Blks.......French........57th St. J comes in at B-....about the same as Dayton....We remain at C+ We shoot better than St. J (one of the few teams we can out gun) ...and our Defense is better too. So we've got this game right?...Not so fast...The headline says we are under dogs...What gives? On the surface it looks like this should be a W. But looking below the surface is the secret....St. J doesn't make mistakes....They lead the nation in fewest TOs /gm (tied with Va.)...This allows them to stay in most games and scratch out a few extra victories.They average a little over 9 TOs / gm. We have to win the TO battle....Is that far fetched?....No ...If we play like we did against Dayton (5 TOs) we win. Another area where they keep the mistakes down is in fouls... They are 25th in committing the fewest fouls. Bottom line....Mistake free basketball and we win....Take care of the ball.....we need to beat them on TOs...we also need to out rebound them especially on defense where they are terrible....also keep Demery from a big night ...14 pts or less In the end though we need to make shots....This is the target for the Bills...45/35/72.......I think if we can beat their slash which should be less than this target we win provided we take care of the ball. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 I will be interested in how we defend Funk, their 6'9" Fr pivot. He is averaging 10+ in conference play, but 2/3 of his shots (56 of 71) are from outside the arc. He is hitting 38% in conference play from out there. Go 1-3-1? Likely he would shred it from the corners. Man? Foreman or Johnson on him? Don't want French drifting that far out to defend. St. Joe's only home loss is to Villanova. They have beaten VCU, Dayton and St. Bonnie at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 -of course knowing who will be wearing the blue jerseys tomorrow night would be a benefit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 1 hour ago, HoosierPal said: I will be interested in how we defend Funk, their 6'9" Fr pivot. He is averaging 10+ in conference play, but 2/3 of his shots (56 of 71) are from outside the arc. He is hitting 38% in conference play from out there. Go 1-3-1? Likely he would shred it from the corners. Man? Foreman or Johnson on him? Don't want French drifting that far out to defend. St. Joe's only home loss is to Villanova. They have beaten VCU, Dayton and St. Bonnie at home. While Funk is a good shooter ( B+ ) we have faced better .... Here is a list of the top 100 in the nation we have faced ....all A+ 32nd....Reigel ...Dav...49% 34th....Kavas....Sea.....49% 43rd....Lindsey...Prov...48% 50th...Pierre......UMass...48% 59th...Hill...........VT..........47% We are 3-2 against these teams.....As far as defending against the 3...we do OK ...The key will be not to give Funk open shots...we need to bother him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 -Wiz, StJ is an F graded 3pt offense, so with Funk being a good shooter the rest of their squad is worse than us to drag them to an F? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cowboy said: -Wiz, StJ is an F graded 3pt offense, so with Funk being a good shooter the rest of their squad is worse than us to drag them to an F? Yes ....that should tell you something about their 3 pt shooting.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 24 minutes ago, Cowboy said: -Wiz, StJ is an F graded 3pt offense, so with Funk being a good shooter the rest of their squad is worse than us to drag them to an F? Here is an update to my answer to you....without Funk ....StJ falls to F- and becomes the worst Div 1 team in the nation from the 3pt line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 -do we box and one? no offense Box Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheOne Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Cowboy said: -of course knowing who will be wearing the blue jerseys tomorrow night would be a benefit Our black jerseys are vicious. We should wear them every time we step on the court. RiseOfTheBillikens likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 8 minutes ago, Cowboy said: -do we box and one? no offense Box If they are down 3 with 15 seconds to go ...we should know who to guard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 5 hours ago, The Wiz said: While Funk is a good shooter ( B+ ) we have faced better .... Here is a list of the top 100 in the nation we have faced ....all A+ 32nd....Reigel ...Dav...49% 34th....Kavas....Sea.....49% 43rd....Lindsey...Prov...48% 50th...Pierre......UMass...48% 59th...Hill...........VT..........47% We are 3-2 against these teams.....As far as defending against the 3...we do OK ...The key will be not to give Funk open shots...we need to bother him. I took a deeper dive into our A10 foes from your list. Funk 7.1 attempts per game, 3.0 made per game Reigel, 1.8 attempts per game, 0.9 made per game Pierre, 5.5 attempts per game, 2.6 made per game I think we can survive 3 makes, but give Funk 10 open shots and he hits 5 or 6, perhaps a different outcome. Our town's Mike Lewis II currently leads the A10 with 7.9 attempts per game, and 3.0 made per game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 4 hours ago, Cowboy said: -do we box and one? no offense Box I had the same thought..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drkelsey55 Posted January 30, 2018 Share Posted January 30, 2018 Triangle and two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 @The Wiz - How much is home court advantage factored into your system? Does it change from program to program (i.e. does chaifetz move the line as much as say cameron indoor?)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyJumpUp Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Welmer is back in his boot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenny Powers Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 Does anyone have a link to the game? Or can anyone tell me how to watch it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 minutes ago, JohnnyJumpUp said: Welmer is back in his boot. Like death and taxes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Kenny Powers said: Does anyone have a link to the game? Or can anyone tell me how to watch it? http://www.atlantic10.com/mediaPortal/player.dbml?id=1910822 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 fan Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kenny Powers said: Does anyone have a link to the game? Or can anyone tell me how to watch it? Go to slubillikens.com pick the St. Joe pregame link click on A-10 video link OR USE THE LINK ABOVE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 16 minutes ago, JohnnyJumpUp said: Welmer is back in his boot. Jeez is his Doctor a lawyer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, almaman said: Jeez is his Doctor a lawyer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 31, 2018 Author Share Posted January 31, 2018 6 hours ago, Littlebill said: @The Wiz - How much is home court advantage factored into your system? Does it change from program to program (i.e. does chaifetz move the line as much as say cameron indoor?)? Good question....For the Bills,,,,I am using about 3.4 right now. It varies during the season...particularly in OOC. This puts us at a B- in home field advantage. Most teams win at least 2/3 of their home games. On my system the advantage varies from about 2 to 4.5 pts. The 3 factors that affect home field advantage are ....elevation...tempo...crowd size. Elevation means above 4500 ft. This one is self explanatory.....One system using that parameter makes Denver the number 1 team in the nation with a 10. 9 pt home court advantage.....Tempo...either fast or slow.....The idea is most teams push the tempo advantage more at home. And finally crowd size with average teams....Good and bad teams are affected less because of their talent level .. The reasoning on crowd size has to do with ref bias. ie the crowd puts pressure on the refs to make the home call. I think this has lessened in recent years with the advent of instant replay. They know TV will show the replay and make them look bad so less of that now. Also good teams are going to play good and bad teams are going to play bad....but an average team can get revved up and have more of a chance to win and play above their head. Here are a list of schools that all have a bigger home advantage year after year..... KU Duke Ind Gonz New Mex Mich St Wich St Pitt Syr Ky The Bills have the advantage because of the slow tempo and the crowd size ...when there is a crowd....see Dayton game for the effect. So for those who want to make a difference...1 ) show up and 2) yell at the refs GBL_Bills, billikens747, JettFlight5 and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 1, 2018 Author Share Posted February 1, 2018 Well a win is a win....no matter how ugly..... In the opening post of this thread if you looked at the offensive part of the report card (and it was offensive) you see 2 of the worst shooting teams in D1. So the fact that this was an ugly game should have been no surprise. Fortunately for the Bills, Demery didn't play. That evened things out. .. So we didn't beat them on the slash line....St. J 40/32/67....SLU....37/29/61....and we didn't match them on TOs ...although we did a good job...only 2 down....we did force them into an extra 2 over their average which made a difference in this game.....But the real game changer in this game was rebounding....totally dominated. ....42 -27...while I expected we would win the defensive battle on the Boards (30-22) ....St. J 6th worst in the nation on def boards...we also beat them on offensive boards too 12-5. This made all the difference. While you can't put lipstick on a pig....in the morning this will still be a win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 10 hours ago, The Wiz said: Well a win is a win....no matter how ugly..... In the opening post of this thread if you looked at the offensive part of the report card (and it was offensive) you see 2 of the worst shooting teams in D1. So the fact that this was an ugly game should have been no surprise. Fortunately for the Bills, Demery didn't play. That evened things out. .. So we didn't beat them on the slash line....St. J 40/32/67....SLU....37/29/61....and we didn't match them on TOs ...although we did a good job...only 2 down....we did force them into an extra 2 over their average which made a difference in this game.....But the real game changer in this game was rebounding....totally dominated. ....42 -27...while I expected we would win the defensive battle on the Boards (30-22) ....St. J 6th worst in the nation on def boards...we also beat them on offensive boards too 12-5. This made all the difference. While you can't put lipstick on a pig....in the morning this will still be a win Those rebounding numbers are wild - SLU got 30/35 DREB St. J only got 22/34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACE Posted February 1, 2018 Share Posted February 1, 2018 There is another factor - SLU has owned St. Joe's over the years. I think we've only lost once to them since 2005-06. I don't think there is an A-10 opponent we've dominated like this. Thanks Martelli! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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