2017-2018 Season, A New Hope

[Quality Is Job 1]

26 minutes ago, TheChosenOne said:

This. I know the talent on the roster will be much improved, but I have no idea how good any of these kids are individually or how they will play together. I guess we know that the floor and ceiling for the team are both much higher next season.

Next year's team's floor is considerably higher than this year's team's ceiling.

[slu72]

Read the PD article on LaSalle w/ interest. Gio has made a career w/ transfers, but it does take some time. Most of his transfers came from big programs similar to our class of incoming transfers. Basically, the article's premise was even though you've upgraded your talent, it still takes time for the group to gel.

Out of our group of transfers, the guy I think will have the biggest impact is Bess, but I'm basing that solely on his pedigree, ie MSU. Izzo doesn't make a lot of recruiting mistakes, and he's not known for landing a bunch of 5 stars. He seems to have the same philosophy of Majerus. Find good solid kids who'll stick around, don't mind playing hard D, and can still help on offense.

The consensus on here, however, seems to be that Henriquez is the best of the bunch. Great, let's hope he can play some D as well. Don't know much about Foreman, but 8 and 6 in the Big10 should translate well in the A10. As for Graves, that was one very impressive highlite reel, but highlite reels don't reveal the kid's whole game.

I expect we'll have some bumps in the road next year, but, like everyone else, expect we'll be competitive again and should post wins in the high teens. If it all comes together at A10 tourney time, maybe we've got a shot at pulling off a minor Miracle in Memphis.

[Pistol]

34 minutes ago, slu72 said:

Read the PD article on LaSalle w/ interest. Gio has made a career w/ transfers, but it does take some time. Most of his transfers came from big programs similar to our class of incoming transfers. Basically, the article's premise was even though you've upgraded your talent, it still takes time for the group to gel.

Out of our group of transfers, the guy I think will have the biggest impact is Bess, but I'm basing that solely on his pedigree, ie MSU. Izzo doesn't make a lot of recruiting mistakes, and he's not known for landing a bunch of 5 stars. He seems to have the same philosophy of Majerus. Find good solid kids who'll stick around, don't mind playing hard D, and can still help on offense.

The consensus on here, however, seems to be that Henriquez is the best of the bunch. Great, let's hope he can play some D as well. Don't know much about Foreman, but 8 and 6 in the Big10 should translate well in the A10. As for Graves, that was one very impressive highlite reel, but highlite reels don't reveal the kid's whole game.

I expect we'll have some bumps in the road next year, but, like everyone else, expect we'll be competitive again and should post wins in the high teens. If it all comes together at A10 tourney time, maybe we've got a shot at pulling off a minor Miracle in Memphis.

I actually think Bess could have the biggest impact of any of the transfers, too, if for no other reason than we don't have anyone like him this season. He's a strong, slashing wing who gets points at the basket. He's a good defender, really athletic overall. Henriquez is a big shooting guard, also athletic and tough to guard because he's 6-6 and build, but he looks for most of his points from the perimeter. I think he'll be a really nice addition for sure; I just get the feeling Bess is a Ford kind of player and will have a lot of opportunity.

Foreman, I'm kind of tempering my expectations there. I think he's a solid PF and will be good in the A10. I do worry about nagging injuries. My worries here are at least somewhat mitigated by French.

[bauman]

1 hour ago, Pistol said:

I actually think Bess could have the biggest impact of any of the transfers, too, if for no other reason than we don't have anyone like him this season. He's a strong, slashing wing who gets points at the basket. He's a good defender, really athletic overall. Henriquez is a big shooting guard, also athletic and tough to guard because he's 6-6 and build, but he looks for most of his points from the perimeter. I think he'll be a really nice addition for sure; I just get the feeling Bess is a Ford kind of player and will have a lot of opportunity.

Foreman, I'm kind of tempering my expectations there. I think he's a solid PF and will be good in the A10. I do worry about nagging injuries. My worries here are at least somewhat mitigated by French.

This description of Bess sounds like a 2-3 " taller Goodwin.  With Foreman, French, Bess and Goodwin we should a much improved rebounding team-all four seem to be strong physically and like to hit the boards.  Come-on 2017-18 season.  Add CAG to the list the following year and we should never be outrebounded.

[billiken_roy]

4 minutes ago, bauman said:

This description of Bess sounds like a 2-3 " taller Goodwin.  With Foreman, French, Bess and Goodwin we should a much improved rebounding team-all four seem to be strong physically and like to hit the boards.  Come-on 2017-18 season.  Add CAG to the list the following year and we should never be outrebounded.

from the games I have seen this year of Goodwin (admittedly cant remember bess from the mich st games of past) I believe Goodwin to be a better outside shooter than bess.

from what I have read, I think bess will compare more offensively to what jett was in his last couple of billiken seasons.  if he has more of a shot than I expect, then all the better. 

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, Pistol said:

I actually think Bess could have the biggest impact of any of the transfers, too, if for no other reason than we don't have anyone like him this season. He's a strong, slashing wing who gets points at the basket. He's a good defender, really athletic overall. Henriquez is a big shooting guard, also athletic and tough to guard because he's 6-6 and build, but he looks for most of his points from the perimeter. I think he'll be a really nice addition for sure; I just get the feeling Bess is a Ford kind of player and will have a lot of opportunity.

Foreman, I'm kind of tempering my expectations there. I think he's a solid PF and will be good in the A10. I do worry about nagging injuries. My worries here are at least somewhat mitigated by French.

To me, Bess is the biggest mystery of the three.  I hope he is a good defender, but I only saw MSU once on TV last year and have no idea if Bess even played.  He isn't a scorer.  He has 126 career points in two years.  He shot 18% from the 3 point line and 53 % from the FT, so I am guessing most of his shots were in the paint.  His rebound totals are slim, 109 total over two years, and he has only 34 assists in two years.  I know his minutes weren't there, but even with doubling his totals, they don't stand out.  So I am not sure what we have.  Will Bess be the first player next year that Soderballs throws under the bus?  It will all work out next season.

I agree that Henriquez likely will be our top perimeter threat.  He went for 10 ppg in both his years.  Roughly speaking, the AAC and A10 are comparable, so what you see as his history will likely be what we get out of him, with the expected uplift due to experience.

Foreman, yeah, see how well he responds to the hip issue.  But he looks like a Reggie clone, 1 inch taller and 5 pounds heavier, with similar stats except for shooting % where he is well behind Reggie's career percentage.  It looks like he has more range than Reggie, with 15 three point attempts in 2 years (making 6).

[Billiken Rich]

22 hours ago, slufanskip said:

Ummmmm ... Vince Lombardi. And I think the quote as it's generally spoken is a little off. Kind of like the line "Play it again Sam" I don't remember the exact quote though.

Well, a quick google search says Lombardi is wrongly credited with the quote ... It was supposedly Red Sanders a UCLA Bruin football coach who said it originally in 1949. Damn, I hate when I'm wrong

That was a joke.  Otto was more of a: War isn't beer and skittles,  kind of guy.....

[Pistol]

I don't think of Goodwin when I see Bess, and vice-versa. I also don't think of Jett. Physically, he's going to look more like Ash Yacoubou. I think he's more fluid and natural than Ash, though. But just in a lineup, that's probably the Billiken in recent years he'd most resemble. Again- I don't think there's a clean comparison in recent years, that's just the best I can do.

Furthermore, don't read too much into Bess' numbers at Michigan State. He only played 12 games as a freshman because he got injured and needed foot surgery, which shut him down. He was fully recovered as a sophomore, but a couple young players emerged beyond expectations and there was a logjam for minutes.

Which is why transfers' stats are only a piece of the puzzle. Most of them left because of fit, so previous numbers might have a lot more baked in than just "Oh, he couldn't hack it" or "He can't shoot" or whatever.

[Pistol]

A few more thoughts on Bess:

Let's face it, Michigan State can recruit over a guy pretty quickly. He was a top 150 player in most rankings, but not top 100. MSU is competing for top-50 guys, so when Deyonta Davis started eating Bess' minutes, it's not a total shock. Bess chose MSU over K-State and Dayton, two places where he could've been more of a focus. He had more high-level interest, but he reached for the dream program and realized he'd be a role player there. To his credit, he was more of a contributor as a freshman than anyone expected, and he was a sophomore starter before Davis blew up. He put in work there.

If you're curious about his other offers: Xavier, Texas Tech, a number of A10 schools, several MAC schools, and a few scattered others.

Bess was an excellent football player for a while in HS, but phased it out as he focused on basketball. I guess he's like Goodwin in that regard, could've had a future in another sport had he focused on it instead.

I don't know what his focus in practice and open gym has been this season, but he wanted to be more of a SG than a SF in college, whereas he was more of a SF in HS. Of course, he didn't take many shots from the perimeter at MSU and didn't hit them at a high rate, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him trying to build that aspect of his game.

The knocks on Bess in HS were that he was limited as a shooter, was only a good defender when he wanted to be, had weak handles, and was a ballhog at times. There's no doubt he's athletic, rebounds his position well, and can finish.

[hsmith19]

On 1/3/2017 at 1:31 PM, slufan13 said:

I think it's a good comparison. People don't like it because McBroom was a d!ck but if Bishop could be McBroom next year, we will be just fine. 

McBroom was useful because he could hit wide open threes. Well, that and handle VCU's press. I'm still not sure what kind of player Bishop is exactly, other than way too turnover-prone to be a starting point guard. His outside shot doesn't look very good, and neither do hos 3P numbers.

[Glorydays2013]

I really think we need to stop comparing our current transfer's stats from their previous teams to how they will perform at SLU. Players like Bess especially will outperform at SLU than they did at their previous schools. Time will tell, but from what I heard at practices, these three guys run the floor on all of our current players.

[slufan13]

17 minutes ago, hsmith19 said:

McBroom was useful because he could hit wide open threes. Well, that and handle VCU's press. I'm still not sure what kind of player Bishop is exactly, other than way too turnover-prone to be a starting point guard. His outside shot doesn't look very good, and neither do hos 3P numbers.

I have to think McBroom is the better player. I don't see Bishop going to Eastern Washington and averaging 25 ppg like McBroom did. But I think they are similar type players. 

[slufan13]

3 minutes ago, slufan13 said:

I have to think McBroom is the better player. I don't see Bishop going to Eastern Washington and averaging 25 ppg like McBroom did. But I think they are similar type players. 

And really all I mean by that is that they are both undersized two guards who have decent handles but are forced to play the point for their team. 

[SShoe]

1 hour ago, hsmith19 said:

McBroom was useful because he could hit wide open threes. Well, that and handle VCU's press. I'm still not sure what kind of player Bishop is exactly, other than way too turnover-prone to be a starting point guard. His outside shot doesn't look very good, and neither do hos 3P numbers.

Bishop can hit the open 3, he's just not open enough.  McBroom's %s also dropped considerably when he was asked to do more.

[slu72]

The big question mark going into next year for the current players we think will hang around is will playing with better players up their games? That's usually how it works out for athletes, ie they do tend to improve. Take Roby for example. He's had 3 years of dealing with a ton of negativity. Under Crews he was tossed out on the floor w/ a bunch of other FR and unproven players. Playing alongside that mish mash would have made Larry Bird look not so great. Well, maybe Bird's a bad example, but you get the point. And now this year, I still don't think he fully knows what his role is other to play good D and be the voice of seniority. Who really knows how he'll emerge when he gets to play alongside some decent talent in a disciplined system. Same applies to our 3 FR, who we think will stick around.  

[Zink]

7 minutes ago, slu72 said:

The big question mark going into next year for the current players we think will hang around is will playing with better players up their games? That's usually how it works out for athletes, ie they do tend to improve. Take Roby for example. He's had 3 years of dealing with a ton of negativity. Under Crews he was tossed out on the floor w/ a bunch of other FR and unproven players. Playing alongside that mish mash would have made Larry Bird look not so great. Well, maybe Bird's a bad example, but you get the point. And now this year, I still don't think he fully knows what his role is other to play good D and be the voice of seniority. Who really knows how he'll emerge when he gets to play alongside some decent talent in a disciplined system. Same applies to our 3 FR, who we think will stick around.  

This is important. Welmer is already putting up numbers that compare favorably to many guys who ended up as contributors on good teams. He also brings a skill set that none of the other new guys possess, and we will definitely need minutes from him regardless of how good French and Foreman are. 

Another point people are making that I agree with is that numbers pre-transfer don't give us a good idea of what we'll end up seeing. Look at tonight's opponent, LaSalle. Johnson and Price did next to nothing while at Syracuse and Auburn, respectively. Now, both are very dangerous players. 

Henriquez and Foreman have already put up solid numbers, and I would expect at least a slight uptick from both. Bess is less predictable, but as others have said, he just needs to be an improved version of Ash/Cassity/Barnett, which seems realistic. 

[wgstl]

Another reason why Welmer is important.  need the 4 and/or 5 spot to get outside to open the lane for guards who drive.  Loe to Jett, is what we need welmer to do for Goodwin. 

[slufan13]

I predict Bess will better than double his Michigan St stats

[Zink]

20 minutes ago, wgstl said:

Another reason why Welmer is important.  need the 4 and/or 5 spot to get outside to open the lane for guards who drive.  Loe to Jett, is what we need welmer to do for Goodwin. 

Our best teams had bigs who stretched the D (Ellis, Loe). It's incredibly important to have good spacing on offense, and Welmer is valuable for at least that reason. He's also upped his game on defense and showed a bit more in the post recently. He's an average rebounder for his size, but I have a feeling that rebounding will be a strength of ours next year with the players we have coming in. 

[Pistol]

Welmer, Johnson, and Moore all look better to me as role players on a good team than guys getting big minutes as freshmen on a bad team. I could see all of them filling nice roles from next year on, as long as they want to stay, build their frames, and build upon their skill sets.

I'm not sure I like Roby as much from a fit standpoint, but he's a senior and appears to be someone who wants to stay. He's hungry.

Gillmann and Neufeld - well, technically we don't have any other centers but I'll take my chances. I don't know if AG wants to move on or not, but I don't see how MN stays.

Bishop is the enigma to me. There appears to be a place for someone in his position, but we went out and got Graves, we're recruiting Thatch and Watson hard for 2018, we have other guards out there that we're interested in. I've heard enough about his commitment and attitude to have questions about whether he'll be back.

[hsmith19]

1 hour ago, SShoe said:

Bishop can hit the open 3, he's just not open enough.  McBroom's %s also dropped considerably when he was asked to do more.

I won't use the "sniper" word again here, but in a bench role on the last tournament team McBroom's % wasn't great. Then in a bigger role on the first terrible team McBroom shot over 40%. Bishop is not a guy I see ever approaching 40%, but I'd love to be proven wrong.

[Cowboy]

5 minutes ago, Zink said:

Our best teams had bigs who stretched the D (Ellis, Loe). It's incredibly important to have good spacing on offense, and Welmer is valuable for at least that reason. He's also upped his game on defense and showed a bit more in the post recently. He's an average rebounder for his size, but I have a feeling that rebounding will be a strength of ours next year with the players we have coming in. 

-with the team in Philly and you mentioning Ellis my mind wandered to the game vs StJ's where CE was draining 3's, a nice memory

[Zink]

Just now, Cowboy said:

-with the team in Philly and you mentioning Ellis my mind wandered to the game vs StJ's where CE was draining 3's, a nice memory

He was on fire that night, definitely a favorite memory. 

While there are many ways to create spacing, having a deep threat at the 4/5 makes it that much easier. 

[slu72]

As for spacing, we saw it with Rick's teams. Crews teams didn't even know how to spell it. In the few games I've watched under Ford it seems we have gotten that back. Problem is we don't have the talent to do anything with it.

[HoosierBilliken]

Feeling like a fair weather fan wanting fairer weather.  Could this season be played only to fight for role player status next year or to increase opportunities to transfer to a decent basketball team?  Fight on Billikens and improve!  [Howard Dean "Yeaaaahhhh!!!!" for emphasis]