Billiken Rich Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I worry that Xavier will be the game where we get run over by a herd of zebras. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I fully expect Cassity to score 10 a game from here on out. (Not really.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 I fully expect Cassity to score 10 a game from here on out. (Not really.) i expect an 0'fer from cassity on wednesday. if it looks like a duck, then it can't (won't) score for $hit on the road. hope he proves me wrong. regardless, we don't need him to score, because everyone else on the bills will be too busy STUFFING THE GOTDAMN HOOP FULL OF BATSKITBALLZ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billboy1 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Wiz-what category is Murray State. can't believe they are ranked as high as they are. They had a big home win v. Dayton and a 4 point road win v. Memphis. Other than that their schedule seems pretty soft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Good news...Through a weird turn of events, the Bills for the first time this season are an A+ team. A win by Vermont in an insignificant game pushed Vermont up to a C rating and gave us a very small boost. The boost itself was insignificant, yet just enough to allow us to reach the elite level. I dont know whether we will stay elite between now and our game with X but a win over X will secure our spot. It isn't easy reaching elite and just as hard to stay there. So what is the significance of being an A+ team. Well, let me show you the other A+ teams on my list (in no particular order) NC Duke Syr Oh St Wisc Mich St Ind. Kansas Mizzou Baylor Wich St UNLV Ky Fla. Pretty rarified air. It isn't easy being a Bills fan, but it is getting easier. I love the analysis done and provided to the board from the Wiz, its outstanding. That said, my eye test (both drunk and sober analysis) tells me we aren't elite. I am just hoping for an NCAA tournament bid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Wiz-what category is Murray State. can't believe they are ranked as high as they are. They had a big home win v. Dayton and a 4 point road win v. Memphis. Other than that their schedule seems pretty soft. Their schedule is really soft. They are #42 on Kenpom. If they are still undefeated on Selection Sunday they will be a 4 seed at best. Only 3 wins over teams that aren't terrible (Southern Miss in 2 OT, Dayton, @Memphis). They still have the BracketBuster game that could give them another good win. We are ranked so high by the computers because all our wins except Charlotte were by big margins, and except for LMU, all our losses were very close. We have some good wins but no REALLY good wins, hopefully that changes Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 -we cannot stop dribble penetration, if x goes with that and crashes the boards i see big trouble -also KM's turnovers have gone up in the last couple of games, we can't have that to beat x -and, our gotdamn ft's, we can't afford to leave points on the line with misses, making two would quiet the crowd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 -we cannot stop dribble penetration, if x goes with that and crashes the boards i see big trouble MM and JJ can. they're fast as fuok. kwamain can if he wants to. cassity can't. he's too slow. and tall. and white. we need a maniac game from DE i think. just need him all over the court. eating fuoking lunches. ai am nervous about rebounding, though. i guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 We'll go back to the Anaheim style of basketball. Conklin is going to dominate in the paint. Xavier has terrible post play right now. I read their message board and they're all completely down on Frease's play right now. Kwamain has been waiting to have a huge breakout game until now because there is no better guy to do that against than Tu. Cody and Rob will drain 3's. A lot of people are saying that Xavier will be fired up after a big loss. I'm not so sure. They seem completely mentally weak after the brawl. After the brawl, you would have thought they'd be fired up, but they lost their next game by 20 to Oral Roberts. That's excused because Tu, Lyons, and Wells were suspended. After the Oral Roberts loss, you'd think they'd be fired up, but they lost to Long Beach St. They had Tu back for that, but were still missing Lyons so maybe an excuse. After the Long Beach St loss, you'd think they'd be fired up but they lost to Hawaii. :Jimbo Bad Language: Hawaii who's ranked like 300 in rpi. They had Tu and Lyons for that game. Then they beat SIUC by like 9. So you'd think they'd be fired up for a rivalry game against Gonzaga after that terrible stretch, but they lose again. Wells was still out but the excuses are over. Then after losing 4 of 5, you'd think they'd be fired up because they have their whole team back now, but they lose to La Salle. They were down by 20 for a lot of the game, but ended up losing by 10. No excuses there. Now Xavier is playing better than they were during that stretch, but I'm not too worried about them being fired up. And either way, you know our team will be completely fired up and Majerus will have a great gameplan ready. They're mentally weak and if we can get off to a fast start we can really cause them to play out of control. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RB2.0 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Good news...Through a weird turn of events, the Bills for the first time this season are an A+ team. A win by Vermont in an insignificant game pushed Vermont up to a C rating and gave us a very small boost. The boost itself was insignificant, yet just enough to allow us to reach the elite level. I dont know whether we will stay elite between now and our game with X but a win over X will secure our spot. It isn't easy reaching elite and just as hard to stay there. So what is the significance of being an A+ team. Well, let me show you the other A+ teams on my list (in no particular order) NC Duke Syr Oh St Wisc Mich St Ind. Kansas Mizzou Baylor Wich St UNLV Ky Fla. Pretty rarified air. It isn't easy being a Bills fan, but it is getting easier. Wiz, were you once an accountant at Enron? Love SLU and I think we are a boarderline tournament team with little margin for error the rest of the way, but come on man, come on. Elite?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 elite teams would not have the four losses we have. everyone can slip. once or even twice but with our schedule if we were truly an elite team we would not have four losses. we have holes that as the season has progressed have been exposed. i think we are a good team. probably deserved of top 50 talk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010andBeyond Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 elite teams would not have the four losses we have. everyone can slip. once or even twice but with our schedule if we were truly an elite team we would not have four losses. we have holes that as the season has progressed have been exposed. i think we are a good team. probably deserved of top 50 talk. probably deserved of top 50 talk?? I think I'm somewhere in the middle. We are definitely deserved of top 50 talk, but not sold on elite until we win some close, tough games. Top 35 for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 Wins and losses are totally irrelevant in these types of systems. It's based on stuff like points per possession, shooting %, turnover rate, rebounding rate, ect. If you're attempting to predict the future, you have to look well beyond wins and losses. Good post slufan. Xavier can be as "riled up" or as "pissed off" as they want, it won't help them if we play our best game. There is a very real chance they miss the dance. They have wins over Vandy on the road, Purdue, and Cincy, but they also have 6 losses already and still play Memphis, SLU, Temple, Charlotte, and UMass on the road, plus SLU and Dayton at home. If we win Wednesday they are in trouble. Wiz, does W-L record play any part in your system? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccarthyirish7 Posted January 23, 2012 Share Posted January 23, 2012 elite teams would not have the four losses we have. everyone can slip. once or even twice but with our schedule if we were truly an elite team we would not have four losses. we have holes that as the season has progressed have been exposed. i think we are a good team. probably deserved of top 50 talk. What Wiz is merely pointing out is that we are Elite by the #s....just as Elite (by the #s) as the other teams he's pointing out. As for the eye-ball test...yeah, I prob wouldn't quite put us as elite. However, I'd be really interested to see how those other Elite teams would stack up against, Dayton, Temple, and New Mex (at the Pitt). Well, we know how one did - Duke - they lost to Temple. Let's play the eye test. My eye test thinks that SLU is better than Notre Dame and would beat Notre Dame (even at Notre Dame). Notre Dame just dismantled #1 Syracuse at home. The BCS conferences and teams are given more slack b/c they have built a reputation of being Elite (or once Elite). Like Wiz stated, we are in rare territory (by the #s). The A-10 is likely underrated. X, Dayton, Temple, and SLU would likely go toe to toe with the Top 4 in the major BCS conferences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Again, Wiz, based upon facts and reality, there is no way we are "elite". We are in about the Top 50-55-60 but have POTENTIAL to make the top 35, that's it, if we finish 9-2 or possibly just 8-3, it depends upon who we beat. We definitely need at least a 3rd place finish in the A-10, then we will need to win a game or two in The A-10 Tourney depending upon the draw. The reality is that three criteria, our SOS (110) + quality wins over top 50 ranked teams (none) + road wins over good teams (none) makes our W-L mean very little except it puts us in position to "get there". But we are behind schedule with losses to Loyola-NM-Dayton-Temple... even one win in there would really have helped other than the Loyola blemish. We play Xavier home and away, Dayton at home, those are huge, and St. Joe, U Mass and even LaSalle road wins would help and are necessary. We shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 That Loyola Marymount loss could turn out to not be such a blemish...their current RPI is 114...they win a few games and LMU could break the Top 100...that doesn't take away from the fact that we should have beaten them by 30, but it could deaden the negative impact a little... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoastBilliken Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 That Loyola Marymount loss could turn out to not be such a blemish...their current RPI is 114...they win a few games and LMU could break the Top 100...that doesn't take away from the fact that we should have beaten them by 30, but it could deaden the negative impact a little... They did have a nice win against BYU @ BYU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wiz-what category is Murray State. can't believe they are ranked as high as they are. They had a big home win v. Dayton and a 4 point road win v. Memphis. Other than that their schedule seems pretty soft. Murray St is an A- team....they could easily go undefeated playing teams like SEMO the rest of the way. Slightly better than X ( B+ ). I would say most similar to Harvard (A-) with a soft schedule the rest of the way. Neither Murray or Harvard would be in my Top 25 at this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 That Loyola Marymount loss could turn out to not be such a blemish...their current RPI is 114...they win a few games and LMU could break the Top 100...that doesn't take away from the fact that we should have beaten them by 30, but it could deaden the negative impact a little... This was my point in an earlier thread....Loy is currently a C+ team ...we have no bad losses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 What Wiz is merely pointing out is that we are Elite by the #s....just as Elite (by the #s) as the other teams he's pointing out. As for the eye-ball test...yeah, I prob wouldn't quite put us as elite. However, I'd be really interested to see how those other Elite teams would stack up against, Dayton, Temple, and New Mex (at the Pitt). Well, we know how one did - Duke - they lost to Temple. Let's play the eye test. My eye test thinks that SLU is better than Notre Dame and would beat Notre Dame (even at Notre Dame). Notre Dame just dismantled #1 Syracuse at home. The BCS conferences and teams are given more slack b/c they have built a reputation of being Elite (or once Elite). Like Wiz stated, we are in rare territory (by the #s). The A-10 is likely underrated. X, Dayton, Temple, and SLU would likely go toe to toe with the Top 4 in the major BCS conferences. You are correct.....Bills by 5 at ND Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsrmajic Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I feel confident with KM, JJ, or MM on Tu. We have problems with the 6-3" - 6-5" guards (e.g. temple), but I think we match up well with Tu and Lyons, 6'0" and 6'1", respectively. Other than Frease (the combo of RL, CR and heck, even JM should do ok on Frease), X doesn't have too much else that scares me. Oh yea, and we have DE the beast and BC on the other two guys. I feel good about our matchups. I must admit I am no expert on Xavier, but from what I have seen I will be shocked if Loe ever guards Freese. I think that job is all BC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMDG Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 does anyone know about any internet feeds for the X game on Wed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Wins and losses are totally irrelevant in these types of systems. It's based on stuff like points per possession, shooting %, turnover rate, rebounding rate, ect. If you're attempting to predict the future, you have to look well beyond wins and losses. Good post slufan. Xavier can be as "riled up" or as "pissed off" as they want, it won't help them if we play our best game. There is a very real chance they miss the dance. They have wins over Vandy on the road, Purdue, and Cincy, but they also have 6 losses already and still play Memphis, SLU, Temple, Charlotte, and UMass on the road, plus SLU and Dayton at home. If we win Wednesday they are in trouble. Wiz, does W-L record play any part in your system? This is an important point.....My system works off of trying to predict the future. That is one reason there are "doubters"...posters with that Missouri attitude...."Show Me" that the Bills are a good team. They look at us moving forward in a rearview mirror. My system loves Wisc but Wisc didn't show up on the Top 25 AP (barely) till today. Wisc has a great chance to keep winning forward as do the Bills. To answer your question, wins do matter in the context of the predictions. If we beat X by 2 ...we get a small boost....if we lose by 1... a small decrease. A win by more than 12, a big boost....or a double digit loss would be damaging. Anytime you beat a team you are not supposed to, it is a big boost even if by a point. As we are favored the rest of the way our only big boosts will come from beating the spreads on Tier 1 A-10 teams. It is definitely not just about wins and losses. Whether Bills fans want to believe we are elite or not there are a number of 3 loss teams that are elite that no one would question.....NC, Duke, Oh St., Kan. There are many factors all working together to try and predict a team's future outcome. It is not perfect but it works pretty well. And finally, a win over X would solidify our standing as an elite team. We our just barely there, but as any prof will tell you ....there are no bad A+. The key is we need a win over anybody in the A-10 (though Fordham, or RI, wouldn't help us much) It just so happens our next game is against X. Now would be a good time to show what we are made of. A loss wouldn't be the end of the world (as long as it was close) but a win would be a springboard to the Dance. Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 KenPom has the Billikens at #13; Sagarin has them at #24. Per Sagarin, we are favored at X by 2 points. Along with the Wiz, I would say both Ken Pomeroy's and Jeff Sagarin's ratings systems have us as an elite team. So it isn't like the Wiz is just making stuff up here to try to blow smoke up our a$$es. Here are some facts about the Bills this season that may show why we are so liked by the computers: -We haven't given up 80 points to any opponent this season. The most we have given up in regulation was 75 to LMU. Dayton had 79 in the OT game, but only 64 at the end of regulation. We have only given up as much as 70 points 3 times. Our average of 55.6 PPG defensively is currently 7th in the nation. -In our 4 losses, we haven't lost by more than 7 points. The only other team in the A-10 that doesn't have a double-digit loss on its schedule is La Salle. We also have the fewest overall losses of any A-10 team. -We average 14.3 points (69.6) more than we give up. Every victory except Charlotte has been by double-figures. We have 8 victories by 20 or more points. Dayton and Xavier have 5 wins combined by 20 or more points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 KenPom has the Billikens at #13; Sagarin has them at #24. Per Sagarin, we are favored at X by 2 points. Along with the Wiz, I would say both Ken Pomeroy's and Jeff Sagarin's ratings systems have us as an elite team. So it isn't like the Wiz is just making stuff up here to try to blow smoke up our a$$es. Here are some facts about the Bills this season that may show why we are so liked by the computers: -We haven't given up 80 points to any opponent this season. The most we have given up in regulation was 75 to LMU. Dayton had 79 in the OT game, but only 64 at the end of regulation. We have only given up as much as 70 points 3 times. Our average of 55.6 PPG defensively is currently 7th in the nation. -In our 4 losses, we haven't lost by more than 7 points. The only other team in the A-10 that doesn't have a double-digit loss on its schedule is La Salle. We also have the fewest overall losses of any A-10 team. -We average 14.3 points (69.6) more than we give up. Every victory except Charlotte has been by double-figures. We have 8 victories by 20 or more points. Dayton and Xavier have 5 wins combined by 20 or more points. This.......... ......And our losses have all been to good teams ....C+..Loy M(Aw)......B+..Day(Aw OT) & Tem ......A...NM(Aw) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.