MB73 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 KenPom has the Billikens at #13; Sagarin has them at #24. Per Sagarin, we are favored at X by 2 points. Along with the Wiz, I would say both Ken Pomeroy's and Jeff Sagarin's ratings systems have us as an elite team. So it isn't like the Wiz is just making stuff up here to try to blow smoke up our a$$es. Here are some facts about the Bills this season that may show why we are so liked by the computers: -We haven't given up 80 points to any opponent this season. The most we have given up in regulation was 75 to LMU. Dayton had 79 in the OT game, but only 64 at the end of regulation. We have only given up as much as 70 points 3 times. Our average of 55.6 PPG defensively is currently 7th in the nation. -In our 4 losses, we haven't lost by more than 7 points. The only other team in the A-10 that doesn't have a double-digit loss on its schedule is La Salle. We also have the fewest overall losses of any A-10 team. -We average 14.3 points (69.6) more than we give up. Every victory except Charlotte has been by double-figures. We have 8 victories by 20 or more points. Dayton and Xavier have 5 wins combined by 20 or more points. You never cease to amaze me with your naive first tier of intelligence mentality. You live in a dreamworld. Ken Pom is ca-ca. SLU is at 13th. WHAT? Who have we beat? Who have we lost to? What is our SOS. (do you know what that means, kid?) Duke is 14th. Georgetown is 15. UNLV 17th. K State is 19. WV us 22nd. Creighton is 27, U Conn is 35. Michigan is 39. Illiinois is 40. Louisville is 41. Cincy is 45. Dayton is 47. Xavier is 51. Temple is 53. SD State is 55. Just some of the facts. How do you figure? In a delusional world? Sure, if we go 9-2 we are in the NCAA game, we are "players". But do not cite Ken Pom and other joke entities. Einstein: Justify us being ranked 30+ over Temple, SD, St, Xavier, etc, etc, these are just a few examples. Show me why we are 13th, over DUKE. WHO HAVE WE BEAT? Who have we lost to? What is our SOS? Study this sh*t for 20 yrs and perhaps you will be competent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 MB, you make good points, but you're over the top. If the Pomeroy formula has SLU 13th, then they're 13th in Pomeroy. JBizzle made a factual post. Your rant doesn't negate that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mccarthyirish7 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 You never cease to amaze me with your naive first tier of intelligence mentality. You live in a dreamworld. Ken Pom is ca-ca. SLU is at 13th. WHAT? Who have we beat? Who have we lost to? What is our SOS. (do you know what that means, kid?) Duke is 14th. Georgetown is 15. UNLV 17th. K State is 19. WV us 22nd. Creighton is 27, U Conn is 35. Michigan is 39. Illiinois is 40. Louisville is 41. Cincy is 45. Dayton is 47. Xavier is 51. Temple is 53. SD State is 55. Just some of the facts. How do you figure? In a delusional world? Sure, if we go 9-2 we are in the NCAA game, we are "players". But do not cite Ken Pom and other joke entities. Einstein: Justify us being ranked 30+ over Temple, SD, St, Xavier, etc, etc, these are just a few examples. Show me why we are 13th, over DUKE. WHO HAVE WE BEAT? Who have we lost to? What is our SOS? Study this sh*t for 20 yrs and perhaps you will be competent. MB, you're arguing Apples vs. Oranges. We get it. "Show me" is what you are trying to say....we get it. This quote by The Wiz is the part you are missing..... This is an important point.....My system works off of trying to predict the future. That is one reason there are "doubters"...posters with that Missouri attitude...."Show Me" that the Bills are a good team. They look at us moving forward in a rearview mirror. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 You never cease to amaze me with your naive first tier of intelligence mentality. You live in a dreamworld. Ken Pom is ca-ca. SLU is at 13th. WHAT? Who have we beat? Who have we lost to? What is our SOS. (do you know what that means, kid?) Duke is 14th. Georgetown is 15. UNLV 17th. K State is 19. WV us 22nd. Creighton is 27, U Conn is 35. Michigan is 39. Illiinois is 40. Louisville is 41. Cincy is 45. Dayton is 47. Xavier is 51. Temple is 53. SD State is 55. Just some of the facts. How do you figure? In a delusional world? Sure, if we go 9-2 we are in the NCAA game, we are "players". But do not cite Ken Pom and other joke entities. Einstein: Justify us being ranked 30+ over Temple, SD, St, Xavier, etc, etc, these are just a few examples. Show me why we are 13th, over DUKE. WHO HAVE WE BEAT? Who have we lost to? What is our SOS? Study this sh*t for 20 yrs and perhaps you will be competent. Just quoting this so you can't go back and change it later. And I guess being a couple of months shy of your 36th birthday (like I am) makes you a 'kid' around here. I don't think you really get the predictive nature of these ratings systems like KenPom, Sagarin or The Wiz's. It is as if you are taking it personally that there are computer systems out there that are showing that, egads, the Billikens might actually be pretty darn good this season. Hell, we can't have that. It really amuses me that you are getting so bent out of shape about this. In my experience, I have come to realize that people that constantly insult others intelligence, and point out how smart they are, tend to be nothing more than blowhards and dumbsh!ts. They need to constantly reinforce their own self-esteem and demean others. In your post, you questioned my intelligence and told me that I needed to study for about 20 years just to be competent. However, all I did was just point out that Ken Pomeroy and Jeff Sagarin basically supported what The Wiz had to say. So, I guess you are calling all of them incompetent and unintelligent too. (Well, you did say 'KenPom is ca-ca', so perhaps you are.) The best thing about your rant, though, is that it comes after you called moytoy12 and I 'weirdo creepy obsessive 24/7 stalkers'. Yet, here you are, firing off an unhinged rant directly at me after 11:00 PM, though I never directed any conversation towards you in this thread. Seems kinda stalkerish there, MB73. It is the little things like that which make you absolutely adorable! That, and the fact that you are probably on the north side of 60 years old, yet act like a child in drastic need of his Ritalin on this board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I thought Pomeroy had us ranked #122? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 I thought Pomeroy had us ranked #122? I think you are looking at last years data......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The funny thing, MB, is these systems are actually much more sophisticated than pretty much anything you cite. Yet you are demeaning the people who cite them. I'm not sure why you can't get it through your thick skull that these systems are: 1. One of many ways to rank teams. 2. Predictive based on previous opponents, wins, margin of victory, strength of schedule, adjusted SOS,, offensive officiency, and defensive efficiency. 3. Not perfect. No ranking system is perfect. That is why the committee will look at all 30 or however many they do. Instead of telling us about who in the top 25 (the most flawed and subjective of all) we would or wouldn't beat, spend the rest of the season studying up on statistics. Before you blast Wiz and others, maybe it is you that should study this for the next 20 years. Grasp the concept of predictive formulas and models. There was an entire major motion picture revolving around a similar idea recently. Something starring Brad Pitt and fat Jonah Hill might be more on your level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 what really needs to happen (but it wont because the committee is typically stacked with bcs votes) is a message sent to force the BCS teams to play the stronger out of conference games. Murray State will undoubtedly be punished for their schedule and frankly i dont think that is fair. i hope they go undefeated and make it to the final four (provided they never meet the Billikens) and prove the committee to be the arrogant jerks they have been forever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 My only issue is the X game. The prediction is based partially upon an X team that wasn't at full strength which is not the team we will play. Say we lost KM for 3 games and lost all of those, when he comes back the computers will take into account all of the games even the ones without KM, though that isn't really the team we are. The same goes for X right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Thing is, how much more proof do we need? Last year's final four included two non-BCS teams, while Butler repeated as runner-up. I think the statement has been made, yet it still amazes me at how surprised people are regarding upsets when they happen in abundance every single year. I do think the experts are somewhat wising up to this and beginning to give smaller conference teams more recognition and respect. They seem to be beginning to understand that parity exists and are giving fewer bids to large conference teams that don't schedule difficult games in the non-conference portion. One team that pops into my head is last season's Virginia Tech. Now if we can only get the committee to stop matching up all the non-BCSers in the first round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Now if we can only get the committee to stop matching up all the non-BCSers in the first round. Nope...If we make the Tourney I'm sure we'll end up playing Creighton in the first round... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Thing is, how much more proof do we need? Last year's final four included two non-BCS teams, while Butler repeated as runner-up. I think the statement has been made, yet it still amazes me at how surprised people are regarding upsets when they happen in abundance every single year. I do think the experts are somewhat wising up to this and beginning to give smaller conference teams more recognition and respect. They seem to be beginning to understand that parity exists and are giving fewer bids to large conference teams that don't schedule difficult games in the non-conference portion. One team that pops into my head is last season's Virginia Tech. Now if we can only get the committee to stop matching up all the non-BCSers in the first round. sshoe, i think we are on the same side. i agree that last year's final four showed the world that these supposed inferior teams were not necessarily treated fairly with their seeds. that is my complaint anyway. i get so upset seeing a team that just because they arent in the big ten, or the acc or the big east or the sec or the big 12 seeded with a less than stellar seed which makes their games they have to play through to advance to a final four or even an elite 8 nearly impossible with game after game of tough draws. give those supposed lesser teams (lesser in conference rep only) their deserved seeds and move down (or better yet out) those 500 conference record bcs teams and the tourney then would truly become fair to all concerned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 -can't find an easy source to historical make up of the basketball committee, but here are either the current members or last year's Gene Smith, The Ohio State University, chair Scott Barnes, Utah State University Dan Beebe, Big 12 Conference Mike Bobinski, Xavier University Doug Fullerton, Big Sky Conference Jeff Hathaway, University of Connecticut Lynn Hickey, University of Texas-San Antonio Stan Morrison, University of California-Riverside Steve Orsini, Southern Methodist University Ron Wellman, Wake Forest University -for 2013 it appears that x's ad will be chair -interesting site here talking about how some of these folks should not be on this board..http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2011/03/ncaa_basketball_committee_need.html -bob knight has been talking about having bball people on the committee for at least a couple of years, i wonder why this doesn't evolve, it couldn't have anything to do with money, could it?? -at least some of these people wil be deciding in march with all the data available to them (that they seem to intentionally hide what they use) if SLU is an elite team and what other non-bcs team we will be playing in round 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 sshoe, i think we are on the same side. i agree that last year's final four showed the world that these supposed inferior teams were not necessarily treated fairly with their seeds. that is my complaint anyway. i get so upset seeing a team that just because they arent in the big ten, or the acc or the big east or the sec or the big 12 seeded with a less than stellar seed which makes their games they have to play through to advance to a final four or even an elite 8 nearly impossible with game after game of tough draws. give those supposed lesser teams (lesser in conference rep only) their deserved seeds and move down (or better yet out) those 500 conference record bcs teams and the tourney then would truly become fair to all concerned. We are in agreement. I guess I'm just saying that the committee, experts, or whomever should not need anymore proof. We've seen smaller conference teams make huge runs year-in and year-out, so if they haven't learned that lesson by now, they never will. That being said, I think things are slowly trending towards the positive in terms of more small conference teams getting bids and teams like Murray State not getting screwed with ridiculously low seeding. It's far from perfect, but it's better than in the past, imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 We are in agreement. I guess I'm just saying that the committee, experts, or whomever should not need anymore proof. We've seen smaller conference teams make huge runs year-in and year-out, so if they haven't learned that lesson by now, they never will. That being said, I think things are slowly trending towards the positive in terms of more small conference teams getting bids and teams like Murray State not getting screwed with ridiculously low seeding. It's far from perfect, but it's better than in the past, imo. -one stat to look at would be the number of non-bcs at large bids, the one year that the valley was claimed to have 'figured out' the rpi i think is the highest number at over 10 and i think it was 14 (and did they figure out anything or just win games?) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 -one stat to look at would be the number of non-bcs at large bids, the one year that the valley was claimed to have 'figured out' the rpi i think is the highest number at over 10 and i think it was 14 (and did they figure out anything or just win games?)I don't have time to go back each year and/or find out which ones were at large bids or not, but I counted 13 bids for non majors above a 12 seed in last year's bracket. Additionally, there was a 2 seed and a 3 seed. Not bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 i think they "figured" it out. i also think since then other conferences have as well thus the effect is gone. second, since then the mvc has never had the same out of conference sos have they? and last, dont put it by the committee to have secretly said, ok, they figured that out, so now what do we do to keep them out. can you tell i love a good conspiracy theory. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 My only issue is the X game. The prediction is based partially upon an X team that wasn't at full strength which is not the team we will play. Say we lost KM for 3 games and lost all of those, when he comes back the computers will take into account all of the games even the ones without KM, though that isn't really the team we are. The same goes for X right now. I understand your concern. All I can tell you is the data right now shows that X is back where they were pre-brawl.. In other words, if we played X the day before the brawl at X, I still would have had the Bills by 2 over X. Net result at this point is....no effect. If we beat them ...no excuses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Not that it matters a great deal, but SLU is currently 50th in the RPI after moving up a spot tonight...Temple, UD, and New Mexico are now happy that they currently have a Top 50 win...at least for a day... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 MB, you make good points, but you're over the top. If the Pomeroy formula has SLU 13th, then they're 13th in Pomeroy. JBizzle made a factual post. Your rant doesn't negate that. HA! Over the top, yep, but there is some history here, and I might have had a few vodkas.JBizzle has been very ignorant and insulting to me, he tries hard but is very inexperienced and goes too far with irrelevant stats and his points are far fetched in many cases. Drives me crazy. I bring reality to the board after The Wiz and JBizzle are done. And I had some vodkas, did I mention that? But getting to the facts, putting SLU 13th, one behind Flordia, is a statistical abbomination, the 20-35 teams behind us almost all had wins over top 50 teams and wins on the road against good teams and mostly superior SOS's. I think the Wiz led off with some statment (from outer space) about Vermont winning a game or losing a game and that put us into the Elite. Give me a break. SO, Absurd_Bills_Fan: Duke is 14th, Georgetown is 15th, VA is 16th, UNLV 17th, K State 19, WV 22, U Conn 35, Michigan 39, Illinois 40, Louisville 41, Murray State 42, Cincy 45, Dayton 47, VT 48, X 51, Temple 53, SD St 55... review their W-L, SOS, wins over top 50, and wins on the road over, say, top 75, can compare them to SLU. Make the case why we are better. RPI is the most consistent, Ken Pom and Sagarin are erratic as hell some years. Sure, we are in position to move up but we do not deserve it yet. Need to go 9-2 to get to top 35-45 or so and have a good chance at the dance.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 HA! Over the top, yep, but there is some history here, and I might have had a few vodkas.JBizzle has been very ignorant and insulting to me, he tries hard but is very inexperienced and goes too far with irrelevant stats and his points are far fetched in many cases. Drives me crazy. I bring reality to the board after The Wiz and JBizzle are done. And I had some vodkas, did I mention that? But getting to the facts, putting SLU 13th, one behind Flordia, is a statistical abbomination, the 20-35 teams behind us almost all had wins over top 50 teams and wins on the road against good teams and mostly superior SOS's. I think the Wiz led off with some statment (from outer space) about Vermont winning a game or losing a game and that put us into the Elite. Give me a break. SO, Absurd_Bills_Fan: Duke is 14th, Georgetown is 15th, VA is 16th, UNLV 17th, K State 19, WV 22, U Conn 35, Michigan 39, Illinois 40, Louisville 41, Murray State 42, Cincy 45, Dayton 47, VT 48, X 51, Temple 53, SD St 55... review their W-L, SOS, wins over top 50, and wins on the road over, say, top 75, can compare them to SLU. Make the case why we are better. RPI is the most consistent, Ken Pom and Sagarin are erratic as hell some years. Sure, we are in position to move up but we do not deserve it yet. Need to go 9-2 to get to top 35-45 or so and have a good chance at the dance.. Vodka by 2 over MB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 HA! Over the top, yep, but there is some history here, and I might have had a few vodkas.JBizzle has been very ignorant and insulting to me, he tries hard but is very inexperienced and goes too far with irrelevant stats and his points are far fetched in many cases. Drives me crazy. I bring reality to the board after The Wiz and JBizzle are done. And I had some vodkas, did I mention that? But getting to the facts, putting SLU 13th, one behind Flordia, is a statistical abbomination, the 20-35 teams behind us almost all had wins over top 50 teams and wins on the road against good teams and mostly superior SOS's. I think the Wiz led off with some statment (from outer space) about Vermont winning a game or losing a game and that put us into the Elite. Give me a break. SO, Absurd_Bills_Fan: Duke is 14th, Georgetown is 15th, VA is 16th, UNLV 17th, K State 19, WV 22, U Conn 35, Michigan 39, Illinois 40, Louisville 41, Murray State 42, Cincy 45, Dayton 47, VT 48, X 51, Temple 53, SD St 55... review their W-L, SOS, wins over top 50, and wins on the road over, say, top 75, can compare them to SLU. Make the case why we are better. RPI is the most consistent, Ken Pom and Sagarin are erratic as hell some years. Sure, we are in position to move up but we do not deserve it yet. Need to go 9-2 to get to top 35-45 or so and have a good chance at the dance.. You're using the numbers of one statistical ranking formula to try to debunk another. Do you see that? Moreover, RPI is completely irrelevant until the one single hour before the NCAA Tournament field is announced. The other formulas can account for what teams are doing right now, but the RPI is designed to judge a "body of work" at the end of the season. I don't know why we foam at the mouth about RPI rankings prior to Selection Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
For-DaLove Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Vodka by 2 over MB###### great post. hahahaha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 HA! Over the top, yep, but there is some history here, and I might have had a few vodkas.JBizzle has been very ignorant and insulting to me, he tries hard but is very inexperienced and goes too far with irrelevant stats and his points are far fetched in many cases. Drives me crazy. I bring reality to the board after The Wiz and JBizzle are done. And I had some vodkas, did I mention that? But getting to the facts, putting SLU 13th, one behind Flordia, is a statistical abbomination, the 20-35 teams behind us almost all had wins over top 50 teams and wins on the road against good teams and mostly superior SOS's. I think the Wiz led off with some statment (from outer space) about Vermont winning a game or losing a game and that put us into the Elite. Give me a break. SO, Absurd_Bills_Fan: Duke is 14th, Georgetown is 15th, VA is 16th, UNLV 17th, K State 19, WV 22, U Conn 35, Michigan 39, Illinois 40, Louisville 41, Murray State 42, Cincy 45, Dayton 47, VT 48, X 51, Temple 53, SD St 55... review their W-L, SOS, wins over top 50, and wins on the road over, say, top 75, can compare them to SLU. Make the case why we are better. RPI is the most consistent, Ken Pom and Sagarin are erratic as hell some years. Sure, we are in position to move up but we do not deserve it yet. Need to go 9-2 to get to top 35-45 or so and have a good chance at the dance.. Except in another thread kwyjibo showed that RPI is one of the least consistent ranking systems and that Pomeroy and Sagarin are far more effective. Also, as ABF correctly stated, RPI is actually pretty worthless until the regular season has concluded. To try to rely on it while the season is going on to predict wins and losses going forward, or a team's overall worth, is pretty useless. It is fun to look at the RPI throughout the season, and see how it moves after games, and previous opponents' games, but it doesn't mean much until all the games are done. Once again, these computer programs aren't saying that SLU will end up winning their last 11 games and be a top 4 seed in the NCAA tournament. What they ARE saying is that if they continue to play as effectively as they have so far, that they have a chance to do that, and that they will be a favorite in games going forward. If they win at X today, then they become a greater favorite in the games moving forward. If they lose by 1 or 2, they still might be a favorite in all of the games, or at least most of them. If they get smoked by 20, then it recalibrates and SLU will drop quite a bit in those ratings. Pretty easy to grasp, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Pretty easy to grasp, I think. -only for some Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.