ok, optimism

[billiken_roy]

the A-10 today is the 5th overall rpi conference. of our 14 teams, 7 are ranked in the top 100 (including slu).

IF slu could win these 4 remaining non conference games and the conference continues at this great pace, i would think slu will then be in a position that they can control their own destiny to the ncaa tourney by finishing in the top 4 or 5 of the conference. a conference ranked in the top 5 overall will get mucho at large berths. the past two seasons the conference was such that there was just no way of going to the tourney other than winning the conference tourney or be xavier. but it appears that window might open a little bit more if the conference can have a great december.

realistically, we can expect that the big 10 and the sec will eventually pass the A-10 by, but i would take a #7 spot overall.

xavier beating creighton last night was huge for xu. they are now up to 7th overall.

it does my heart great to see the mvc 2 slots behind the a-10 right now.

http://www.kenpom.com/confrank.php?y=2008

this all said, our remaining 4 opponents on our schedule are currently ranked as follows:

sam houston 5th

siu 95

loyola 241

iupui 159

i am surprised loyola is ranked that low, as their schedule is extremely good. but it proves that you have to win regardless of how tough you schedule. their four losses are to bradley, purdue, northern iowa and western michigan. all top 120 teams.

but still the point is slu has indeed had a good schedule as right now our sos is ranked 88th. and since we dont have a lot of near 300 rpi teams left to play that sos will likely get even lower.

[ACE]

It's funny how the critics from last year are now preaching patience, while the "kool aid" crew from last year have become the critics. Roy has had more x's and o's criticism of Majerus in a couple of weeks then he ever did for Sodie. I thought everybody was going to give this a little more time. People are certainly entitled to criticize, but I will give it more than 10 games into the Majerus era (with Sodie's players) before I do that.

Forget the doom and gloom, there are a few reasons to think this could get better.

- We only play four games before we begin conference play in over a month. All of these games are at home. There will be a lot of time for Majerus to practice.

- While the scores have not been pretty, the bottom line is that we have won the games we were expected to win (favored) and lost those where we were the underdog. If we win the next four (which won't be easy), we will be 10-4 heading into conference play. That's not a bad place to be.

- I originally had us beating SIU, but certainly the way we have been playing, there is now doubt. On the plus side, we will have a whole week to prepare for the game.

- One more reason to be encouraged, it looks like the A-10 is better than last year. The conference has had some good wins. We still have a chance to have a decent RPI.

I am willing to let this play out a little. We will know a lot more after these next four games. Sodie's roster has a lot of weaknesses, but I haven't given up hope that we can put together a solid season.

[billiken_roy]

Roy has had more x's and o's criticism of Majerus in a couple of weeks then he ever did for Sodie.

expectations............expectations result in different reactions.

kind of like when so taguchi comes up against the cubs and gets a grooved fastball down the middle belt high and grounds out weakly to the second baseman. i just shake my head. but if albert pujols misses a fat pitch i am a hell of a lot more disappointed.

doesnt mean i would rather have so taguchi on my team than albert pujols. just means i expect albert to perform at a higher level and know that over the long haul he will. no reason to beat up so. he is doing the best he can.

[moytoy12]

If we win the next four (which won't be easy), we will be 10-4 heading into conference play. That's not a bad place to be.

Ace, you know i'll always have your back, but i think winning the next four is next to impossible (as opposed to just not being easy).

If we split the next 4 i'll be surprised. My biggest concern is KL. He seems way off this year.

I wonder if MR and AM will be leaving at the semester break a la Obi and Horace. If they can't get off the bench during blowouts and they aren't going to be redshirted...what other options are there.

[DoctorB]

Ace, you know i'll always have your back, but i think winning the next four is next to impossible (as opposed to just not being easy).

I got some really bad news, guys. I think it is within the realm of possibility that we lose all 4. I was at Long Beach and that was one pretty bad team--which we barely beat. Not wanting to be a downer but I have serious doubts about winning any of the next few games.

Here is an example, -- IUPUI thumped UMass by 12, I believe, and this guy George Hill from Broad Ripple High in Indy might just lay 30 points and 10 assists on us--real deal mid-major stud. Beating IUPUI is looking pretty unlikely to me right now, let alone Sam Houston and SUI. If you think IUPUI is a no-braner win, think again.

How does 6-8 look going into the A10??

[Billikan]

Ace, you know i'll always have your back, but i think winning the next four is next to impossible (as opposed to just not being easy).

I got some really bad news, guys. I think it is within the realm of possibility that we lose all 4. I was at Long Beach and that was one pretty bad team--which we barely beat. Not wanting to be a downer but I have serious doubts about winning any of the next few games.

Here is an example, -- IUPUI thumped UMass by 12, I believe, and this guy George Hill from Broad Ripple High in Indy might just lay 30 points and 10 assists on us--real deal mid-major stud. Beating IUPUI is looking pretty unlikely to me right now, let alone Sam Houston and SUI. If you think IUPUI is a no-braner win, think again.

How does 6-8 look going into the A10??

Based upon our recent performances I think it would take a miracle to win 2 of the four games. The only good thing is that we will be at home although that did not seem to help in the Long Beach game. Not only that, every day the conference schedule looks tougher. Charlotte last night beat a very good Davidson team that gave NC and Duke fits before they lost late in the game. My over and under for the season is 14 wins at this point and I only predict that many because I am an eternal optimist. RM loves to brag that he has never had a losing season. That streak is in serious jeopardy.

[cheeseman]

Based upon our recent performances I think it would take a miracle to win 2 of the four games. The only good thing is that we will be at home although that did not seem to help in the Long Beach game. Not only that, every day the conference schedule looks tougher. Charlotte last night beat a very good Davidson team that gave NC and Duke fits before they lost late in the game. My over and under for the season is 14 wins at this point and I only predict that many because I am an eternal optimist. RM loves to brag that he has never had a losing season. That streak is in serious jeopardy.

I am not sure I have ever heard RM "brag" about never having a loosing season. Others have bragged about that about him. Lets not start putting words in RM's mouth.

[Box and Won]

I'll be pleasantly surprised if we beat Sam Houston State on Saturday. Even moreso if we somehow beat Carbondale.

[brianstl]

While I don't think 4 wins is going to happen, I am a lot more optimistic than most of you. I think Sam Houston St. is being way overrated by many. They beat Texas Tech and no one else. A TT that has shown that it has trouble getting up for opponents that are not big time (losing to Centenary 70-66).

[kwyjibo]

RM loves to brag that he has never had a losing season. That streak is in serious jeopardy.

Here is something to ponder: Sagarin's PREDICTOR has SLU going 6-10 in conference. That translates into forecasting a losing regular season (not counting Houston Baptist) even if we go 3-1.

[brianstl]

Here is something to ponder: Sagarin's PREDICTOR has SLU going 6-10 in conference and which means forecasting a losing regular season (not counting Houston Baptist) even if we go 3-1.

Well I guess it is something to ponder if you think the team will continue to play the same as it has. I think this teams level of play is in for a big upswing.

[brianstl]

If this was a team that had the same coach and the same systems as last year, I would be a lot more worried.

[jimbofive]

Here is something to ponder: Sagarin's PREDICTOR has SLU going 6-10 in conference. That translates into forecasting a losing regular season (not counting Houston Baptist) even if we go 3-1.

Hactually... wouldn't that make us 15-15, which would make it a season-long tie?

The thing is, is that sometimes when you lose you actually win. And sometimes when you win, you actually lose. And sometimes when you tie, you actually win or lose. You see, winning and losing is just an organic globule from which one extracts what one needs.

[jimbofive]

Hactually... wouldn't that make us 15-15, which would make it a season-long tie?

The thing is, is that sometimes when you lose you actually win. And sometimes when you win, you actually lose. And sometimes when you tie, you actually win or lose. You see, winning and losing is just an organic globule from which one extracts what one needs.

Sorry, just saw the Houston Baptist comment. I'm going to count them. Why not? Given the closing statement of my last post, I might actually be correct, even though I'm not.

[willie]

Sorry, just saw the Houston Baptist comment. I'm going to count them. Why not? Given the closing statement of my last post, I might actually be correct, even though I'm not.

It won't be easy but I think we can win all 4. We are night and day home vs. road. All will be close but I like the home team.

[moytoy12]

We are night and day home vs. road.

Are we? It seems our performance has been equally dreadful on the road and home this year, the only difference has been the quality of opponent.

[willie]

Are we? It seems our performance has been equally dreadful on the road and home this year, the only difference has been the quality of opponent.

How can you say that? We are winning home games and losing by 30 on the road. We have not lost that many home games in the last few years,and most of those losses were close.

[3star_recruit]

I know there is kind of a perverse pleasure to be had doing all this handwringing two weeks into the basketball season but the A-10 isn't going to have an opportunity to change national perception for another 9-14 days. That's when college football goes on hiatus and the following games hit the slate: Massachusetts @ Syracuse, Creighton @ Xavier, Gonzaga @ St. Joe's, SLU @ Boston College, Pittsburgh @ Duquesne, Providence @ Rhode Island. That's the biggest predictor of the whole season right there.

Looks like the conference is on the right track, Roy. All this complaining last year on the board about how the A-10 failed to show up in non-conference and now this year we're the weak link. Irony sucks.

[moytoy12]

How can you say that? We are winning home games and losing by 30 on the road. We have not lost that many home games in the last few years,and most of those losses were close.

I'm looking at the more recent past.

Our road losses have included losses to Pitt, MSU, Kent and BC. Our home wins include Detroit, Furman, Pacific and Long Beach. I think it's pretty easy to see that we are losing on the road because they are road games, but also because the quality of opponent is substantially better.

Our road game at Kent, then home v. LBSU and on the road at BC were equally dreadful in my opinion. You disagree?

[billiken_roy]

Looks like the conference is on the right track, Roy. All this complaining last year on the board about how the A-10 failed to show up in non-conference and now this year we're the weak link. Irony sucks.

it indeed does. however, if somehow we see the billikens that played pitt the next four games maybe we can still pull our weight as i would think that would improve our standings quite a bit. we can dream until the bubble actually pops.

[kshoe]

the A-10 today is the 5th overall rpi conference. of our 14 teams, 7 are ranked in the top 100 (including slu).

IF slu could win these 4 remaining non conference games and the conference continues at this great pace, i would think slu will then be in a position that they can control their own destiny to the ncaa tourney by finishing in the top 4 or 5 of the conference. a conference ranked in the top 5 overall will get mucho at large berths. the past two seasons the conference was such that there was just no way of going to the tourney other than winning the conference tourney or be xavier. but it appears that window might open a little bit more if the conference can have a great december.

realistically, we can expect that the big 10 and the sec will eventually pass the A-10 by, but i would take a #7 spot overall.

xavier beating creighton last night was huge for xu. they are now up to 7th overall.

it does my heart great to see the mvc 2 slots behind the a-10 right now.

http://www.kenpom.com/confrank.php?y=2008

this all said, our remaining 4 opponents on our schedule are currently ranked as follows:

sam houston 5th

siu 95

loyola 241

iupui 159

i am surprised loyola is ranked that low, as their schedule is extremely good. but it proves that you have to win regardless of how tough you schedule. their four losses are to bradley, purdue, northern iowa and western michigan. all top 120 teams.

but still the point is slu has indeed had a good schedule as right now our sos is ranked 88th. and since we dont have a lot of near 300 rpi teams left to play that sos will likely get even lower.

I'd have to say the RPI is still very preliminary at this point and significant changes are possible/likely. For example, going into last night's play the MVC was actually ranked one spot higher than that A-10 but they went 3-2 and the A-10 went 5-3 and all of a sudden they are two spots lower? You'll also notice that all four conferences ranked 5-8 have an average RPI that starts with .54x where the 4th ranked conference starts with .58. My point is it might as well be a virtual tie for all four conferences between 5-8 at this point, but I think we all expect that the SEC and Big 10 will pull away in due time.

The individual team RPIs are starting to look more reasonable but there are still some head scratchers with St. Marys and Sam Houston in the top 10 and a team like Pitt at 53, BC at 58, Wisconsin at 78 and Georgetown at 89 for example.

The A-10 has certainly stepped it up this year and is making a real push for the best non-BCS conference out. Still way too early to tell if it will happen with a full month of non-conference play remaining but at least we haven't knocked ourselves out of contention the way we did the previous 3 years.

[drkelsey55]

I hope we are not the team to drag the A10 down this year. Need lots of people to turn out for the next four games.

Need more Bills Fans than SIUC fans when we play them.

[slu72]

I'm looking at the more recent past.

Our road losses have included losses to Pitt, MSU, Kent and BC. Our home wins include Detroit, Furman, Pacific and Long Beach. I think it's pretty easy to see that we are losing on the road because they are road games, but also because the quality of opponent is substantially better.

Our road game at Kent, then home v. LBSU and on the road at BC were equally dreadful in my opinion. You disagree?

I'm hopeful a little respite after this Sam Houston game, which doesn't look like it's gonna be an easy game, gives everyone a chance to settle down, get in some meaningful practice sessions, and allows the marriage of RM and this team to smooooooth out a little. Whether we go into conference play 10-4, 9-5, whatever. Conference play is gonna' be important. Hitting stride with some momentum going into the A-10 tourney may be the best we can hope for at this juncture.

[brianstl]

I'm hopeful a little respite after this Sam Houston game, which doesn't look like it's gonna be an easy game, gives everyone a chance to settle down, get in some meaningful practice sessions, and allows the marriage of RM and this team to smooooooth out a little. Whether we go into conference play 10-4, 9-5, whatever. Conference play is gonna' be important. Hitting stride with some momentum going into the A-10 tourney may be the best we can hope for at this juncture.

Seriously, did anyone really believe we would have a chance to have NCAA tourney bid locked up before the conference tourney? I think the A-10 is improved, but it will still be a chore to place more than two teams in the NCAA tourney. The last two seasons the conference was a one bid conference, if not for an upset conf. tourney winner.

The best chance the Bills have is finish in the top 2 in the conference and make the tourney final. Anything less would require winning the conf. tournament or a lot of stuff out of our control going our way.

[slu72]

Seriously, did anyone really believe we would have a chance to have NCAA tourney bid locked up before the conference tourney? I think the A-10 is improved, but it will still be a chore to place more than two teams in the NCAA tourney. The last two seasons the conference was a one bid conference, if not for an upset conf. tourney winner.

The best chance the Bills have is finish in the top 2 in the conference and make the tourney final. Anything less would require winning the conf. tournament or a lot of stuff out of our control going our way.

I didn't mean to imply I ever expected an NCAA bid this year. Just would like to see the trend line reverse itself in conference play and continue through the tournament. In a tournament anything can happen. Think: Miracle in Memphis. Right now I'd say any post season play is a stretch, but there's still a lot of season left.