The Wiz Posted February 25 Share Posted February 25 Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 6th seed (unch)....NIT chances.......Rich...76%(up).....Loy...80%(up) General Outlook........Well, the good news is that we have made it back to C...We are again an average team in D1. We have an improving offense and a stabilizing but still poor defense. Opp PPG an important measure of defense is currently at F. Every game we give up 81+ pts we trend toward the very bottom (F-). Overall defense is D-. On the flip side overall offense is at B-. If we had an average defense we would be a top 4 team instead of a bottom feeder. Moving up to C on defense is not that far away.. Meanwhile, we are still locked in the PIG pen. As for the A10 tourney...the computer thinks we have a decent chance to win the 1st game and then because of parity and no homefield advantage most of the tourney games will be close. The Bills need to take the games one at a time and focus on matching TOs . Let's take a look at the game.... Game Preview....This Rich team reminds me of VCU...OK offense and one of the top defenses ITN. ...13th ITN in Def FG% with more A's sprinkled about. The biggie though is ...wait for it...TOs. They are 3rd ITN in TOs....They protect the ball very well. The interesting thing is they are only average in forcing TOs. The computer thinks if we can give up no more than 8 TOs we will have a chance to win. We have done this before. One bright spot for the Bills is that the computer also thinks we will out rebound them...if we do, that would be a step toward victory. Finally, Rich has a good starting 5....not much production after that. They will come out early and try to rollover us. If we can hold them off, we can make some hay when they start subbing. Their main man is King...he will play nearly the whole game... he can shoot inside and out ...take away the open shots and you can keep him under control. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The Card is up.....3 up (3 Off ) and 1 dn (Def) .................SLU............Rich................SLU...................Rich ...........................OFF........................................DEF.......... PPG...........C+................C-..................F........................A FG%...........C..................B...................D-.......................A+...13th ITN 3P%...........A.................B+...................D........................A- FT%...........B+................B............................. Reb...........D...................D-....................D+......................F+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....PPG...3P%...FT%.....Def...none Down.........Off....none......Def....FG% Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...55th ...dn Rich TOs...Team...3rd ITN PPG...King...60th FG%...Bailey...44th Stls....Bailey...69th 2P%...Bailey...20th MPG....King...67th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Parker...2/24 ...leg...questionable Meadows....2/20...back...out indefinitely Rich.. Roche...2/21...knee...out for the season Keys to the Game.......Stop King...Protect the ball...no open shots for Rich...speed up the game...make the slash WWN2D2W...Target slash--46/38/75.....Target TOs for the Bills ...8 or match them...Out rebound Rich...Keep their top 2 scorers to 25pts Bottom line.........Match them in TOs and we might get RICH quick. CenHudDude likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 I assume you did not include VCU in the post season A-10 because they played late this afternoon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetorch Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 A10 Road Wins 23-24 Richmond - 6 21-22, 22-23, 23-24 combined SLU - 9 Richmond by 18. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Oops, thread title is missing a 0 at the end. TRN, Lando Griffin, billikenfan05 and 1 other like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 1 hour ago, CenHudDude said: I assume you did not include VCU in the post season A-10 because they played late this afternoon? That is correct ...the data dump came in this morning. I am sure they will be on the NIT list again as long as they beat RI on Wed. CenHudDude likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 Wow... 18 and 20 pt Rich forecasters....I am guessing on Tues, Vegas will give The Bills 5.5 pts. Sounds like some cash will be flowing over to the Richmond side of the betting board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CenHudDude Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 10 hours ago, The Wiz said: That is correct ...the data dump came in this morning. I am sure they will be on the NIT list again as long as they beat RI on Wed. Thanks Wiz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 26 Author Share Posted February 26 Update on the spread....Rich now by 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy II Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 -KenPom has it at 6 -per his model Rich is #76 and we are #205 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 40 minutes ago, Cowboy II said: -KenPom has it at 6 -per his model Rich is #76 and we are #205 Ken Pom also rates Rich as #1 in offense TO% SLU is #336 in defense TO% Rich is bad at offensive rebounds so if they're cold we could make up some ground there Rich has only lost 1 road game in conference but every game has been close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Richmond is dead last in all of college basketball (362nd) at offensive rebounds. That and FT rate are really the only thing they suck at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 1 minute ago, wgstl said: Richmond is dead last in all of college basketball (362nd) at offensive rebounds. That and FT rate are really the only thing they suck at. It fits with their style. They send everyone back after the shot. Their offense is cutting, screening, shooting - they're not attacking the basket. Which is why they don't draw fouls, either. All 5 starters are 4th/5th year players. They're patient and methodical. They're going to carve SLU apart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted February 26 Share Posted February 26 Richmond by 9 I don't think our guys will fare well against a UR that actually plays offensive sets. We had a matchup made in heaven for us against GW.. they played zone and we shot 70% from three. That's not happening against Mooney's guys. They actually compete and play basketball. GW and SLU suck, bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bay Area Billiken Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Lines: CBS Sports: SLU +5, o151.5. ESPN: RICH -5.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Turned out to be a 16 pt loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetorch Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 On 2/25/2024 at 7:23 PM, thetorch said: A10 Road Wins 23-24 Richmond - 6 21-22, 22-23, 23-24 combined SLU - 9 Richmond by 18. My computer was off by two points. Gotta work on that algorithm tonight. Needs tweaking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 29 Author Share Posted February 29 Let' s do the easy stuff first...Bolded statements from original post above..... Lose the TO battle and you have an 80% chance to lose...we lost it 12-10....Target TOs for the Bills ...8 or match them...missed the target That is pretty much all you need to know....but if you are a glutton for punishment ...here is the rest.... Target slash--46/38/75...another miss...not only that but Rich had a 188 slash...52/58/78...usually a 180+ is an auto win Stop King...Keep their top 2 scorers to 25pts...Not only did we not stop King...but King had 27 pts by himself. no open shots for Rich...There were too many One bright spot for the Bills is that the computer also thinks we will out rebound them... we did but it wasn't enough with the other numbers being off They will come out early and try to rollover us. If we can hold them off, we can make some hay when they start subbing. ...They did and we did but we couldn't sustain. Their main man is King...he will play nearly the whole game (38 min)... he can shoot inside and out ...take away the open shots and you can keep him under control....He did what he was supposed to do and we couldn't control him. Finally, Rich has a good starting 5....not much production after that. ...This turned out to be right on....as their top 5 scored 73 of the 80 pts Bottom line...This game went pretty much as the computer expected. The spread had an extra 10 pts because RICH played above it's head and we played below average.. Some positive notes....Jimerson became the all time 3P scorer (3PM) passing Claggett. Ezewiro had probably his best game of the season with a dou-dou...17-11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Reviewing the stats for the game, we had a much lower % of FG made (37.7% FG made /FG attempted) than they did (51.7% FG made over attempted) both teams attempted almost the same total FG numbers. I agree our failure to stop King was disastrous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 9 hours ago, The Wiz said: Let' s do the easy stuff first...Bolded statements from original post above..... Lose the TO battle and you have an 80% chance to lose...we lost it 12-10....Target TOs for the Bills ...8 or match them...missed the target That is pretty much all you need to know....but if you are a glutton for punishment ...here is the rest.... Target slash--46/38/75...another miss...not only that but Rich had a 188 slash...52/58/78...usually a 180+ is an auto win Stop King...Keep their top 2 scorers to 25pts...Not only did we not stop King...but King had 27 pts by himself. no open shots for Rich...There were too many One bright spot for the Bills is that the computer also thinks we will out rebound them... we did but it wasn't enough with the other numbers being off They will come out early and try to rollover us. If we can hold them off, we can make some hay when they start subbing. ...They did and we did but we couldn't sustain. Their main man is King...he will play nearly the whole game (38 min)... he can shoot inside and out ...take away the open shots and you can keep him under control....He did what he was supposed to do and we couldn't control him. Finally, Rich has a good starting 5....not much production after that. ...This turned out to be right on....as their top 5 scored 73 of the 80 pts Bottom line...This game went pretty much as the computer expected. The spread had an extra 10 pts because RICH played above it's head and we played below average.. Some positive notes....Jimerson became the all time 3P scorer (3PM) passing Claggett. Ezewiro had probably his best game of the season with a dou-dou...17-11 You need to add a "CTF factor" to the computer calculations. That might make it more accurate. Billikens abysmally bad; worth at least a couple points in the red. Vegas was handing out FREE MONEY last night. Wowza. Also FIRE FORD NOW! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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