The Wiz Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 General Outlook......There has been a lot of talk this season about the A10 being down and that we are a 1 bid league. So I asked the computer if there was no automatic bid would the A10 get a bid...The answer was probably not. Chances of a bid to the A10 with no auto bid is 37%. Just another way of measuring the A10 regression...though it is still early and that might change but for now the computer is unimpressed with the league. We still have a couple more games to go before we have enough data to make any serious prognostications. Game Preview....This will be the Bills toughest challenge to date....We come into the game still clinging to B- while USU shows up with a grade of B+ and a lot of fancy stats to show they are for real. They are one of the top 2 pt shooting teams ITN. ..with 2 players shooting 63.6% and 62%. One of them Great Osoler (no it is not a typo...his name is Great) is Mr USU as he is listed in 4 key categories of top 100 players(see report card below) In addition they have 2 other players listed in 3 more top 100 areas. On top of this they have one of the best defenses ITN. So are we goners? No... the computer says we have a good chance to win this game. It says if we play like we did in the 1st half of the DART game ...we win by 7....but if we play like we did in the 2nd half we lose by 9. Most of the simulations fall around even....with about 70% showing a range of The Bills by 4 down to USU by 2. A TO or a missed layup could be the difference in the game. Make 2s (50.5%) and win. Report Card.... ..Report card for this game is neutral with 2 categories up and 2 down. Let's see what things look like.... ...................SLU......................USU........................SLU.............................USU .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............C+.......................B.............................C..................................A- FG%...............D+......................A+..10th ITN............C+................................A- 3P%...............A-......................C..............................B....................................A+..2nd ITN FT%...............C+......................D-....................................................................... Reb...............D..........................B.............................F....................................A OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....none..........Def.....PPG...3P% Down.........Off......PPG...FG%.......Def....none Top 100 In The Nation SLU FT%...Jimerson...56th USU PPG...Osoler...28th Rebs....".....".....24th Blks....."....".....22nd FG%....Falslev...71st (63.6%)....Osoler...100th(62%) Asst....Brown II ...2nd Stls...Falslev...91st Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills.... Parker ....Nov 17....Foot...fractured foot...out indefinitely USU... None Key to the Game......Make 2s...This is even more important this game as USU's strong suits are 2P% and 3P Def....Stop Osoler....Brown (their version of Yuri)will feed Osoler and that is their play. WWN2D2W...45/51/38/72....Hold their top 3 scorers to 34 pts...Hold USU to 72 pts...Stop Osoler...Hold him to less than 50% FG%...7 rebs.....1 blk.......SLU TOs 10 or 3 TOs less that USU... Bottom line....Play 40 min of focused and fast bball....If The Bills can make some 2s, it could turn out to be a not so "GREAT" day for USU Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Whatever the line on this game is, I will be placing a large wager on Utah State. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Wiz, we have no way of defending their 6'8 245 lb power forward who is averaging 20 and 10. If we don't shoot a high percentage from three, it's a wrap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 I think the computer is skewed by our early season games vs competition that lacked big men. This is a C- team. The computer will catch up soon. Maybe there's money to be made until the models catch up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted November 27, 2023 Author Share Posted November 27, 2023 19 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said: Wiz, we have no way of defending their 6'8 245 lb power forward who is averaging 20 and 10. If we don't shoot a high percentage from three, it's a wrap. No question...we have to make some shots (see slash above...especially 2s)...They are #2 ITN in 3P def....however we are far better from the arc than any team they have played so far. Again if we can make some shots and play without any mental letups we have a chance to win this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUMedBilliken15 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 I am not a betting man, but I think I would bet against us in this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 In Women's Soccer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 ummmmmmmmmmmm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 33 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said: I think the computer is skewed by our early season games vs competition that lacked big men. This is a C- team. The computer will catch up soon. Maybe there's money to be made until the models catch up. It's skewed because Parker isn't playing. Wyoming didn't lack big men, we were just able to counter them with 22 points from Parker. With him we're a B-. Without him, I agree, we're a C-. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 26 minutes ago, The Wiz said: No question...we have to make some shots (see slash above...especially 2s)...They are #2 ITN in 3P def....however we are far better from the arc than any team they have played so far. Again if we can make some shots and play without any mental letups we have a chance to win this game. SFA is a better shooting 3 point team than us(14 int although they dont shoot a lot) -granted they were bad the night they faced Utah st. Bradley is a solid team too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, wgstl said: SFA is a better shooting 3 point team than us(14 int although they dont shoot a lot) -granted they were bad the night they faced Utah st. Bradley is a solid team too I maintain that we're a good three point shooting team, we don't a. shoot enough and b. run enough action to get good looks billiken_roy likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said: I maintain that we're a good three point shooting team, we don't a. shoot enough and b. run enough action to get good looks I agree we are. But Utah st has played a few good 3 point teams already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenfan05 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, wgstl said: I agree we are. But Utah st has played a few good 3 point teams already. Oh USU is going to murder us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Just now, billikenfan05 said: Oh USU is going to murder us. At this point I'd settle for a single digit loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 29 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said: It's skewed because Parker isn't playing. Wyoming didn't lack big men, we were just able to counter them with 22 points from Parker. With him we're a B-. Without him, I agree, we're a C-. I was going to post the same thing. I can see us being the current ranking with a healthy Parker, but without him we are not a good team. Without Parker we don't have the offensive fire power to make up for the poor defense/rebounding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Homering too much. Spreads have been off by about 10 points ever since Parker got hurt. USU by 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 58 minutes ago, SLUMedBilliken15 said: I am not a betting man, but I think I would bet against us in this one. There's big money to be made betting against SLU right now. The Wichita state spread was straight up free cash if you watched WSU play the night before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 Just now, TheChosenOne said: I was going to post the same thing. I can see us being the current ranking with a healthy Parker, but without him we are not a good team. Without Parker we don't have the offensive fire power to make up for the poor defense/rebounding. And USU is in the same position. And I quote from their own message board, "Without him (Great), we are 1-4 up to this point.". This is the plight of most mid majors. If your most talented scorer is in the lineup, you've got a chance to be good. If not, not so much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Bird Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 31 minutes ago, billikenfan05 said: I maintain that we're a good three point shooting team, we don't a. shoot enough and b. run enough action to get good looks agree. Zero inside-out passes. Albeit these "kickouts" work best when they need to double team our big. Teams generally do not need to double-team our bigs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 If y'all want your eyes opened go check out these same threads from the Jim Crews final two seasons. Much of the same kind of optimism, people talking about Brett Jollys ways to contribute. We are bad, folks. We might not be at that full blown Crewsplatt level yet but this roster full of foreign stiffs and ineligibles is on the way to it. Somehow SLU has done it again. longtimelistenerfirsttimec likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 29 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said: And USU is in the same position. And I quote from their own message board, "Without him (Great), we are 1-4 up to this point.". This is the plight of most mid majors. If your most talented scorer is in the lineup, you've got a chance to be good. If not, not so much. He does turn it over a lot. Really the only chance we have against him Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 I'll say we keep it within double digits. I'm not sure we're at the point where we get blown off our home floor by an average non conference team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheA_Bomb Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 USU's coach from last year's run is now at VCU. He was only there 2 years. Their new coach, D. Sprinkle is from Montana State. Won the Big Sky the last 2 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
willie Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 16 minutes ago, Dr Bird said: agree. Zero inside-out passes. Albeit these "kickouts" work best when they need to double team our big. Teams generally do not need to double-team our bigs. We don't have an inside game. TJ playes at the top of the key screening and occasionally driving to the basket. Haven't seen enough of Bruce but I don't beleive we change the set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laker119 Posted November 27, 2023 Share Posted November 27, 2023 13 minutes ago, slufan13 said: I'll say we keep it within double digits. I'm not sure we're at the point where we get blown off our home floor by an average non conference team. After that Dartmouth game or whatever the heck it turned into, I don’t think there’s anything this team won’t do on our home floor or otherwise. We deserved to lose that game three times over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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