The Bills over ILST by 13

[The Wiz]

• Game Outlook... 
   

ILST offers a balanced attack with all their starters able to score in double figures. Scoring is led by Poindexter ...their big guy is  7' 1" Lieb (hmm... that height seems familiar) who  is a shot blocker/rebounder.  Slicing toward the basket may offer some unpleasant surprises. 

The Bills enter this contest as a B team.   ILST is a D team.  For comparison purposes , I asked the computer what SOIN was...The answer was D-....So ILST is a slightly better team than SOIN.  We should win this game.

Let's look at the report card...

...................SLU......................ILST........................SLU.............................ILST

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B....................C............................C+..................................B+

FG%...............C+................C+..............................B-.................................B-

3P%...............A...................B................................B-..................................D

FT%...............C-...................F+......................................................................

Reb...............C+....................B...............................F+................................C-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....none....Def....none

Down.........Off.....none...Def......none

Top 100 In The Nation

ISU

Stls ...Foster...59th

Blks...Lieb

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....Nov. 9  Zhang (after Stu report...see my post in Zhang thread) ....Out indefinitely...waiver eligibility

Keys to the game.... . Keeping TOs down....TOs is a theme I harp at year after year....but it is especially important  this year...if we are to win , we must be as mistake free as possible...there is very little room for error....Make some FTs...we need to get up to 70%...if we are below 70% this will eventually jump up and bite us.

WWN2D2W...Target slash...50/40/70....Keep them under 70 pts ...Beat them on the boards...TOs 11 or under....

Bottom line...   If we can keep the Redbirds flying low.... then the Bills will take off.

 

[ACE]

We SHOULD be an outstanding free throw shooting team - Meadows, Parker and Gibby all over 80% last year. Then again, we'll probably have a frustrating loss this year like Auburn last year where we completely blow a game at the line.

[Lord Elrond]

Hey, @The Wiz, quick question for you. Have you ever thought of turning your computer loose on to see what it thinks of a women’s game?

[VeniceMenace]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

• Game Outlook... 
   

ILST offers a balanced attack with all their starters able to score in double figures. Scoring is led by Poindexter ...their big guy is  7' 1" Lieb (hmm... that height seems familiar) who  is a shot blocker/rebounder.  Slicing toward the basket may offer some unpleasant surprises. 

The Bills enter this contest as a B team.   ILST is a D team.  For comparison purposes , I asked the computer what SOIN was...The answer was D-....So ILST is a slightly better team than SOIN.  We should win this game.

Let's look at the report card...

...................SLU......................ILST........................SLU.............................ILST

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B....................C............................C+..................................B+

FG%...............C+................C+..............................B-.................................B-

3P%...............A...................B................................B-..................................D

FT%...............C-...................F+......................................................................

Reb...............C+....................B...............................F+................................C-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....none....Def....none

Down.........Off.....none...Def......none

Top 100 In The Nation

ISU

Stls ...Foster...59th

Blks...Lieb

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....Nov. 9  Zhang (after Stu report...see my post in Zhang thread) ....Out indefinitely...waiver eligibility

Keys to the game.... . Keeping TOs down....TOs is a theme I harp at year after year....but it is especially important  this year...if we are to win , we must be as mistake free as possible...there is very little room for error....Make some FTs...we need to get up to 70%...if we are below 70% this will eventually jump up and bite us.

WWN2D2W...Target slash...50/40/70....Keep them under 70 pts ...Beat them on the boards...TOs 11 or under....

Bottom line...   If we can keep the Redbirds flying low.... then the Bills will take off.

 

Kasubke and Poindexter are big senior guards who can hit from 3— each shot approx 35% last year. Pence was prolific shooter in high school and a top 10 recruit out of Illinois….if he’s good to go, could pose an additional long distance threat. Faceguard those dudes with Meadows, Hughes and Thames.

[Old guy]

7 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:

Hey, @The Wiz, quick question for you. Have you ever thought of turning your computer loose on to see what it thinks of a women’s game?

For a computer to do what the Wiz's computer does it needs lots of data which may come from different sources. The fact that his computer takes data inputs for the MBB team at SLU does not mean the input of data for SLU's WBB is simple to secure or even available at the level the computer gets for the MBB team. I am not the Wiz, of course, but I doubt that producing the same kinds of predictive results for the WBB as for the MBB team would be a simple thing to do.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, Lord Elrond said:

Hey, @The Wiz, quick question for you. Have you ever thought of turning your computer loose on to see what it thinks of a women’s game?

I actually had that capability about 5 years ago and then the data sources dried up.  Now just Men's D1 BB.

[Lord Elrond]

27 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I actually had that capability about 5 years ago and then the data sources dried up.  Now just Men's D1 BB.

Good data, good results. No data… thanks, just thought I’d ask

[HoosierPal]

Illinois State is 1-0 this season with a season opening home W against NAIA Lourdes.  For this game they started Lieb 7'1',  Foster 6'7", Kasubke 6'5",  Poindexter 6'3" and  Banks 6'2".  What was interesting was that their second leading returning scorer, 6'7" Lewis was a DNP explained in the Bloomington Normal Pantagraph as a "self imposed" decision.  

Lieb, the transfer from Illinois, in his first game for the Redbirds played 17 minutes, shot 3 times scoring 7 points, grabbed 7 boards and blocked 3 shots.  Poindexter lead the way with 16 points.  Foster did get 3 steals, so our ball handlers need to be sharp.

This is the first on campus arena meeting between SLU and Illinois State since Feb 1992, and the first in the Lou since Dec 1990.  I personally would like to see more regional OOC games. 

[wgstl]

Didnt realize ISU was where Kasubke ended up. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

SLU beat Illinois State 82-76 in the '21 Cancun Challenge, '21-'22 Season, in a game that was closer than it should have been.

Per sports-reference.com, ISU leads the all-time series 6-5.  The Illinois State Redbirds Basketball website says ISU leads the all-time series 7-6. 

Of ISU's Top 8 players, all are Seniors or above, including a 5th year, all 8 are transfers, 4 played for ISU last season, 4 played for another school last season. 

I'm expecting a tough game, will be happy to get a Win.

 

[brianstl]

I think the Billikens should win, but 13 seem really high to me. I would be shocked if the sports books had more than 7 or 8

[The Wiz]

24 minutes ago, brianstl said:

I think the Billikens should win, but 13 seem really high to me. I would be shocked if the sports books had more than 7 or 8

I was thinking it was high too....But the Bills only have 1 game of usable data and ILST has none so you can get some wide variations with only 1 game for 2 teams.  I was thinking the bookies might come in at about 5-6  in favor of SLU.   In the case of SLU ...which team will show up ....the one that shot 60% or the one that shot 36%....looks like the computer Bill-ieves.

[Old guy]

32 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I was thinking it was high too....But the Bills only have 1 game of usable data and ILST has none so you can get some wide variations with only 1 game for 2 teams.  I was thinking the bookies might come in at about 5-6  in favor of SLU.   In the case of SLU ...which team will show up ....the one that shot 60% or the one that shot 36%....looks like the computer Bill-ieves.

Team Rankings Vegas implied spread is 7.5 in favor of the Bills as of now.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Line per cbssports.com: SLU -8, o145.

[wgstl]

1 hour ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Line per cbssports.com: SLU -8, o145.

Pretty high OU. 

[Soderball]

Wow, wiz. ISU is pretty bad according to your model. That's a gigantic spread.

[The Wiz]

17 minutes ago, Soderball said:

Wow, wiz. ISU is pretty bad according to your model. That's a gigantic spread.

One simulation shows us winning by 21.....another  sim has us losing by 2... the other 2000 are somewhere in the middle.  That is the way it is at the start of the season.  It will narrow as time goes on.  We should know what kind of team we have by Dec 2  after the SIU game (8th game).

[Old guy]

Wiz, when the numbers available are insufficient to allow reasonably accurate calculations, you have to fill the gaps with educated guesses and come up with a synthetic gap filler which is partially based upon whatever available stats there are, and partially upon knowledge. We all know, or should know, that this early in the season there is not enough data available for accurate statistical calculations, and you have been doing this type of work for many years and have the necessary experience to fill the gap with knowledge. I like the way you do things and consider it more accurate than betting and bettor sentiment like TR uses. 

I hope we win over 13, go Bills!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

[billikenbill]

The Wiz appears to have advanced his understanding of the Bayesian predictive model beyond what Bayes himself produced. He clearly has tweaked the importance of prior and posterior predictive checking involved in Bayesian analysis, from specifying the prior and data models to deriving inference, model checking and refinement. 
 

Billiken fans are so fortunate that we have someone who possess that kind of knowledge, understands appropriate applications of it, and generates such interesting, and often very accurate, conclusions.

Always look forward to The Wiz’s predictions and analysis. :hattip

[The Wiz]

Another good win...not perfect but a win...

A good start by Zhang....5pts and 2 reb in 7 min...no blks but some shots altered as a result of his presence...he made a difference in the short time he played.

High scorer Jimerson with 20pts...15  by FT...88% from the line.

Parker ...19 pts  & 9 rebs...The tech probably cost him the dou...dou.

Hargrove...12 pts...2blks and some altered shots...3 reb...nice job guarding the 7 footer

Dalger...22 min ...11pts ..4 reb...nice effort

Bolded statements from original  post...

TOs 11 or under... . 10 another good job...an important reason we are 3-0

Make some FTs...we need to get up to 70%...This was a key stat in the win...we shot 81%...had we shot 64% as we did in the first 2 games...the score would have been tied in the final minutes and the win would not have been assured. This was a good time to get hot at the line.

Keep them under 70 pts...We were close enough in this category to count this as a positive.

50/40/70....42/29/81....we were three 3s and one 2 short...missing 11 pts...we were on target to finish with a 20 pt win....BUT ..no baskets in the final 12min and 55 sec...not good.  A 24 pt lead in the 2nd half faded to a 9 pt win...down as low as a 5pt lead.  In the other D1 game we played against SOIN...also a 24 pt lead was halved to 12 at the end.  My take is we play hard for 3 quarters and then tire.  Of course there was foul trouble and injuries....but we still need to find a way to play a good 4th quarter. Getting 1 more player eligible would be a big help.

Beat them on the boards.... 39-34 lost the battle here...but won 31-30 on DRB so a good sign

Bottom line...I will take the win...we can and will do better....When?....when we play a good 4th quarter.

[Old guy]

9 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Bottom line...I will take the win...we can and will do better....When?....when we play a good 4th quarter.

It is not lack of talent or ability by our players that is the problem. The problem is the way the players are used in the 4th quarter over and over again.

[Old guy]

Not to harp on the rankings, except to say that rankings are a way to express what is expected to happen in coming games considering how a team performs. So, we won last night's game, we went over the Vegas spread and, as far as Team Rankigs is concerned, we went down from 126 to 130 in their rankings. If we continue winning games the way we did last night, we might be closer to a 200 ranking by the end of the OOC play. I am not saying at all that Team Rankings is the absolute authority in this matter, but their opinion of where the Bills are headed is not that good, not so far.

[VeniceMenace]

19 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Not to harp on the rankings, except to say that rankings are a way to express what is expected to happen in coming games considering how a team performs. So, we won last night's game, we went over the Vegas spread and, as far as Team Rankigs is concerned, we went down from 126 to 130 in their rankings. If we continue winning games the way we did last night, we might be closer to a 200 ranking by the end of the OOC play. I am not saying at all that Team Rankings is the absolute authority in this matter, but their opinion of where the Bills are headed is not that good, not so far.

Old Guy, let’s take the W and cancel Team Rankings—KenPom has Bills at 125.

[Lord Elrond]

19 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Not to harp on the rankings, except to say that rankings are a way to express what is expected to happen in coming games considering how a team performs. So, we won last night's game, we went over the Vegas spread and, as far as Team Rankigs is concerned, we went down from 126 to 130 in their rankings. If we continue winning games the way we did last night, we might be closer to a 200 ranking by the end of the OOC play. I am not saying at all that Team Rankings is the absolute authority in this matter, but their opinion of where the Bills are headed is not that good, not so far.

Kenpom had us move up from 126 to 125 after last nights game, so positive?

your point is well taken though, these wins are not really moving us in the rankings. We‘ll see where we are after Myrtle Beach

[Old guy]

I know all the predictive systems are different from one another and use all kinds of variations in the way they determine rankings. This is why you (plural) must get comfortable with one or two systems (the Wiz's and TR's for me) and forget all others, your choice. Just keep this in mind not a single system is correct at the very beginning of the season, and it does not pay to shop around and cone upon whoever it may be that has SLU at the highest ranking level in any particular day.