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The Wiz

New Shooting Stats For 2019-20 vs last 11 years

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It is unusual for me to make an appearance during baseball season....but since there is no baseball season, this gives me a chance to catch up on Bills stats.

As you all know the biggest change in D1 basketball this year was the change in the 3 pt line....increasing the distance to the international line which is 22 ft  1 3/4 in.

As a result of this, I have had to ditch  my 11 year old data base of shooting stats.... 2008-09 was the last change in the 3 pt line..  If the goal of the NCAA was to knock down  long distance shooting....then mission accomplished.   

Here is the new chart  (2019-20) with grades and %s.   There are 3 numbers in every column....the 1st # represents the previous 11 years...the 2nd # represents this year...the 3rd # is the difference.

.....................................3P%.................................FG%...............................2P%

A+.....................41%...37.5%... -3.5%............50.3...47.1...-3.2.........55.9...54.7...-1.2

A.......................39.8.....36.7%...-3.1..............48.9...46.5...-2.4.........54.7....53.4...-1.3

A-......................38.7....35.7.......-3.0...............48.2...45.8...-2.4.........53.3....52.7...-0.6

B+......................38.1....35.1......-3.0................47.6...45.1...-2.5.........52.3....51.9...-0.4

B........................37.1.....34.6......-2.5................47.1...44.6...-2.5.........51.6....51.2...-0.4

B-........................36.6.....34.1......-2.5...............46.5....44.1...-2.4.........51.1....50.3...-0.8

C+.......................36.1.....33.6.....-2.5................46.0....43.7...-2.3.........50.4.....49.6....-0.8

C.........................35.6.....32.9.....-2.7.................45.3...43.1...-2.2..........49.4....49.1....-0.3

C-........................35.1......32.3....-2.8..................44.7...42.5...-2.2..........48.8....48.4....-0.4

D+.......................34.5.......31.8....-2.7..................44.2...42.0...-2.2...........48.2...47.8....-0.4

D.........................33.9........31.3...-2.6...................43.5...41.4...-2.1...........47.4...46.9...-0.5

D-........................33.3........30.5...-2.8...................43.0...40.8...-2.2...........46.6....46.2..-0.4

F+........................32,8........30.0...-2.8...................42.5....40.4...-2.1..........45.7....45.5...-0.2

F...........................32.1........29.1...-3.0...................41.2....39.4...-1.8..........44.6....44.7...+0.1

F-..........................27.8........24.8...-3.0....................34.2...35.4...+1.2..........37.7....40.2...+2.5%

 

A few generalizations.....

If you were really a good shooter...this change hurt you more than lesser players.

2P shooting was down slightly because the outer edge of the 2 shot was also a little farther out.

If you were a really, really bad team ....your 2P shooting actually improved. ...2 factors here...  a lot of variability at the very bottom so not real meaningful ...also it could be that if you can't shoot 3s you take more 2s....even though you can't shoot 2s either....40% is a lot better than 25%.

Last year's 3P reg season shooting was 35.2%....in the experiment during last year's NIT ...shooting from the new distance was 33%....this year's grade C came in at 32.9 - 33.6%....right on target.

In 2007-08 season 3P shooting finished at 35.2% ...same as last year....2008-09 after the last distance change  the % dropped to 34.4%.

So where does this leave the Bills?.......45.4/ 34 /49.7.....FG%/ 3P% / 2P%......B+ /C+ / C+.....Starting from this solid base and bringing in some additional  shooters means we should be an offensive force next season.....Adding only a couple of % pts  to the above slash changes the report card to  A+/ A-/ A-.....If we can shoot C (average) from the FT line....that alone adds 3 pts /gm.

Looking good ...Go Bills

 

 

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-always good stuff, Wiz, do you have the stats to tell us if the shot distribution between 3pt and 2pt attempts changed for 2019-20?

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1 hour ago, Cowboy said:

-always good stuff, Wiz, do you have the stats to tell us if the shot distribution between 3pt and 2pt attempts changed for 2019-20?

Last year's 3PA....38.7%/ 61.3%....this year.....37.6%/62.4%

The actual 3PM dropped from 7.7/gm to 7.2/gm

Overall FGA remained about the same.

Another way to look at the data is to project last year's data  onto this year's averages....ie   how would last year's averages (C grades) look on this year's report card...

..............2018-19................2019-20

FGA............C...........................C

3PA.............C..........................C+

3PM...........C...........................B-

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2 hours ago, Cowboy said:

-thanks, not much of a change

You are correct...not much of a difference BUT still significant....I think the most important numbers from my original post are .....

2007-08.....35.2%   3P%

2008-09.......34.4%    

2018-19.......35.2%

2019-20........33%

In both cases 3P%  dropped after the distance increased.  The drop in the 1st instance was 0.8% and took 10 years  to come back....this time the drop was 2.2% more than double the 1st drop.  I think this was part of the strategy by the NCAA to downplay the long ball. To tamp it down and keep it down for a longer time.

Now that we have figured that out , it is time to leave reality and enter Billiken Bizzaro World...where things never seem to make sense or fit the pattern.   The number 1 stat rule in basketball is the farther you are from the basket the lower your shot percentage will be.  Let's look at the Bills numbers......

2018-19....The Bills shoot 31.3% from the arc.....

Then the next season we push the line out....everyone drops 2.5-3.5%

Well not everyone.....

2019-20.....The Bills shoot 34%....Welcome to  Billiken Bizzaro World.

The overall 33% 3P  shooting is projected to go up this coming season as teams adjust to the distance.  With the Bills adding extra firepower plus a full season of Jimerson there is no reason we can't shoot 36-37% this year which would add an additional 3 P basket every other game ....1.5 pts /gm....If we can shoot FTs at a grade D level (67.7%) (again good FT shooters coming in) that would add an additional 2 pts /gm. .....Total 3 1/2 pts   / gm is significant and would add some extra victories.

Bottom line....Things are looking up numbers wise.

 

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

You are correct...not much of a difference BUT still significant....I think the most important numbers from my original post are .....

2007-08.....35.2%   3P%

2008-09.......34.4%    

2018-19.......35.2%

2019-20........33%

In both cases 3P%  dropped after the distance increased.  The drop in the 1st instance was 0.8% and took 10 years  to come back....this time the drop was 2.2% more than double the 1st drop.  I think this was part of the strategy by the NCAA to downplay the long ball. To tamp it down and keep it down for a longer time.

Now that we have figured that out , it is time to leave reality and enter Billiken Bizzaro World...where things never seem to make sense or fit the pattern.   The number 1 stat rule in basketball is the farther you are from the basket the lower your shot percentage will be.  Let's look at the Bills numbers......

2018-19....The Bills shoot 31.3% from the arc.....

Then the next season we push the line out....everyone drops 2.5-3.5%

Well not everyone.....

2019-20.....The Bills shoot 34%....Welcome to  Billiken Bizzaro World.

The overall 33% 3P  shooting is projected to go up this coming season as teams adjust to the distance.  With the Bills adding extra firepower plus a full season of Jimerson there is no reason we can't shoot 36-37% this year which would add an additional 3 P basket every other game ....1.5 pts /gm....If we can shoot FTs at a grade D level (67.7%) (again good FT shooters coming in) that would add an additional 2 pts /gm. .....Total 3 1/2 pts   / gm is significant and would add some extra victories.

Bottom line....Things are looking up numbers wise.

 

 

 

 

 

Hey Wiz, I SUCK at math lol, but I was wondering if there was a way you could summon up your Wizardry and project what our team FT% would look like if everyone stayed the same, but you only used Jimmy Bell’s 2nd half percentages (he was significantly better in the 2nd half I think), then add Jimerson’s (limited) FT%, and add in Linssen’s FT%, as a sort of fun projection? I have no idea if that would even be possible, so no biggie if it won’t work...just so bored without sports lol.

(Side Note: Maybe I’m suffering from from quarantine psychosis, but I seem to remember J-Good making a some tweaks to his free throw routine and shooting noticeably better the last 5 or 6 games as well.)

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7 hours ago, Reinert310 said:

Hey Wiz, I SUCK at math lol, but I was wondering if there was a way you could summon up your Wizardry and project what our team FT% would look like if everyone stayed the same, but you only used Jimmy Bell’s 2nd half percentages (he was significantly better in the 2nd half I think), then add Jimerson’s (limited) FT%, and add in Linssen’s FT%, as a sort of fun projection? I have no idea if that would even be possible, so no biggie if it won’t work...just so bored without sports lol.

(Side Note: Maybe I’m suffering from from quarantine psychosis, but I seem to remember J-Good making a some tweaks to his free throw routine and shooting noticeably better the last 5 or 6 games as well.)

I had a feeling your request was not going to turn out well for the numbers but you asked....

First let's start with your side note on the bottom....Goodwin shot 53.8% for the season at the charity line....in the last 5 games he was 14-26...53.8%...so nothing to see here....I will use your words.... that you may have suffered some "quarantine psychosis".

Moving on to Bell ....he was 37-58 (63.8%)for the year.....but didn't "catch fire" till the final 8 games when he shot 14-18 from the charity stripe. ...3 of the final 8 games he had no shots. So you have a small sample size of  14-18.  In fact,  a full sample size in FTs is considered 50 FTM....so Bell didn't even have a full sample size for the year.  It will be about half way into the coming season before you can make a judgement on what kind of FT shooter Bell is. .....BUT......I will play along....I will take the 77.7% (14-18) and project it into next season....that nets him 8 extra FTM.

Moving on to Jimerson....he played only 10 games...shot an impressive 6-7 (85.7%) from the line....but again a far cry from a sample size.....BUT....again I will play along and project him into the coming season as an 85.7% FT shooter....net gain....an extra 12 FTM

As far as Linssen is concerned ...this is a total shot in the dark....BUT...continuing to play along....He seems to be a Jimerson type player....I will assign him a FT% of 80% ( he has shot around that in HS)  and he will add about 16 FTM.

So those 3 players in Bizzaro Billiken World could add an extra 36 FTM next year.....and this takes me back to the first sentence of this post....not going to turn out well in the numbers. The extra 36 FTM raises the Bills overall FT ave to 60.1% (still F- ) and lifts us from worst in D-1 to 2nd worst....This assumes that Ark-Pine Bluff doesn't also improve next year.

Hey, I will take the extra 36 pts (which may be a stretch).  Actually every FTM next year will be a bonus.

Hope that answered your question.

 

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18 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I had a feeling your request was not going to turn out well for the numbers but you asked....

First let's start with your side note on the bottom....Goodwin shot 53.8% for the season at the charity line....in the last 5 games he was 14-26...53.8%...so nothing to see here....I will use your words.... that you may have suffered some "quarantine psychosis".

Moving on to Bell ....he was 37-58 (63.8%)for the year.....but didn't "catch fire" till the final 8 games when he shot 14-18 from the charity stripe. ...3 of the final 8 games he had no shots. So you have a small sample size of  14-18.  In fact,  a full sample size in FTs is considered 50 FTM....so Bell didn't even have a full sample size for the year.  It will be about half way into the coming season before you can make a judgement on what kind of FT shooter Bell is. .....BUT......I will play along....I will take the 77.7% (14-18) and project it into next season....that nets him 8 extra FTM.

Moving on to Jimerson....he played only 10 games...shot an impressive 6-7 (85.7%) from the line....but again a far cry from a sample size.....BUT....again I will play along and project him into the coming season as an 85.7% FT shooter....net gain....an extra 12 FTM

As far as Linssen is concerned ...this is a total shot in the dark....BUT...continuing to play along....He seems to be a Jimerson type player....I will assign him a FT% of 80% ( he has shot around that in HS)  and he will add about 16 FTM.

So those 3 players in Bizzaro Billiken World could add an extra 36 FTM next year.....and this takes me back to the first sentence of this post....not going to turn out well in the numbers. The extra 36 FTM raises the Bills overall FT ave to 60.1% (still F- ) and lifts us from worst in D-1 to 2nd worst....This assumes that Ark-Pine Bluff doesn't also improve next year.

Hey, I will take the extra 36 pts (which may be a stretch).  Actually every FTM next year will be a bonus.

Hope that answered your question.

 

Thanks so much for indulging me, Wiz! 1 clarification (which, I fear, will also negatively effect my ideal numbers), in Linssen, I was referring to his numbers with Wilmington last year, not to be confused with Lorentsson, who is much more like Jimerson. The reason I chose those 3 is because they had legitimate college statistics (however limited), that I thought might bring optimism. Maybe it didn’t. Either way. Thanks Wiz!

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25 minutes ago, Reinert310 said:

Thanks so much for indulging me, Wiz! 1 clarification (which, I fear, will also negatively effect my ideal numbers), in Linssen, I was referring to his numbers with Wilmington last year, not to be confused with Lorentsson, who is much more like Jimerson. The reason I chose those 3 is because they had legitimate college statistics (however limited), that I thought might bring optimism. Maybe it didn’t. Either way. Thanks Wiz!

Sorry my bad....I must have confused "sson" with "ssen".

Linssen's FT numbers are 65-93 (69.9%) and a real sample size, finally....his numbers should be usable.  Substituting the "ssen" numbers for "sson" numbers raises the Bills hypothetical FT % in your example to 60.7% (still F- ) and moves us from worst to 3rd worst in D1...we dug a deep FT hole last season.

Even though Linssen is a C- shooter at the FT line....he should be a big help at the charity stripe to a team that is averaging 57%

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8 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Sorry my bad....I must have confused "sson" with "ssen".

Linssen's FT numbers are 65-93 (69.9%) and a real sample size, finally....his numbers should be usable.  Substituting the "ssen" numbers for "sson" numbers raises the Bills hypothetical FT % in your example to 60.7% (still F- ) and moves us from worst to 3rd worst in D1...we dug a deep FT hole last season.

Even though Linssen is a C- shooter at the FT line....he should be a big help at the charity stripe to a team that is averaging 57%

Thanks Wiz! 

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I'm hoping that French can improve his FT percent. Since it is so bad and he gets to the line so often, even getting to 50% would help a lot. But if he doesn't improve, we may see more of Marten, especially later in games when teams start intentionally fouling French.  That would result in fewer attempts by French and thus improve  our overall percentage.  FT shooting is our biggest and maybe our only weakness, so teams may go after French earlier in games than thay have previously.

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1 hour ago, Aquinas said:

I'm hoping that French can improve his FT percent. Since it is so bad and he gets to the line so often, even getting to 50% would help a lot. But if he doesn't improve, we may see more of Marten, especially later in games when teams start intentionally fouling French.  That would result in fewer attempts by French and thus improve  our overall percentage.  FT shooting is our biggest and maybe our only weakness, so teams may go after French earlier in games than thay have previously.

I share your "hope" about French improving his FT %, but at this point in his career, I think we have to live with under 50%.

Like many other posters, I see this as an outstanding year with us leading late in just about every game.  If that's the case then how does a 5-6 man final minutes rotation of GJ, JP, Jacobs, Hargrove, YC and Lorentsson look?  I think that group will give us 75%plus  FT shooting.   Jordan and Hasahn play key roles in getting to the final few minutes of every game and can sit and watch the above group bring it on home.

While I am not implying that my final minutes group is even close to our best grouping, I do think they could give most of our A 10 opponents quite a game.  They are pretty strong in  most aspects of the game (an assumption with AL).  Size - ok; rebounding - ok; ball handling - ok; shooting - outstanding;  defense - adequate.

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1 minute ago, bauman said:

I share your "hope" about French improving his FT %, but at this point in his career, I think we have to live with under 50%.

Like many other posters, I see this as an outstanding year with us leading late in just about every game.  If that's the case then how does a 5-6 man final minutes rotation of GJ, JP, Jacobs, Hargrove, YC and Lorentsson look?  I think that group will give us 75%plus  FT shooting.   Jordan and Hasahn play key roles in getting to the final few minutes of every game and can sit and watch the above group bring it on home.

While I am not implying that my final minutes group is even close to our best grouping, I do think they could give most of our A 10 opponents quite a game.  They are pretty strong in  most aspects of the game (an assumption with AL).  Size - ok; rebounding - ok; ball handling - ok; shooting - outstanding;  defense - adequate.

i am sure every coach in the A10 would love to see us react as such and bench french and goodwin.    what we would gain in free throws we would easily lose in rebounding, defense and scoring with the clock running in my opinion.   

 

our free throw deficiency at this point is what it is and i agree with you we have to live with under 50% with french and 53% with goodwin.  but i would never bench them for the "final few minutes" because of their less than stellar free throw percentage.   maybe the last few seconds that makes sense.   but not minutes.   

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31 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i am sure every coach in the A10 would love to see us react as such and bench french and goodwin.    what we would gain in free throws we would easily lose in rebounding, defense and scoring with the clock running in my opinion.   

 

our free throw deficiency at this point is what it is and i agree with you we have to live with under 50% with french and 53% with goodwin.  but i would never bench them for the "final few minutes" because of their less than stellar free throw percentage.   maybe the last few seconds that makes sense.   but not minutes.   

I agree, Roy. Although I think having Jimmy Bell and Linssen give us options if the other team pulls a hack-a-Has and we decide to pull him in the final minute. With Goodwin, even if his percentage isn’t great, he makes enough from the line that I don’t think hack-a-JGood makes much sense. You can have him in the game for defense and rebounding and try to funnel the ball away from him offensively. 

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53 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

i am sure every coach in the A10 would love to see us react as such and bench french and goodwin.    what we would gain in free throws we would easily lose in rebounding, defense and scoring with the clock running in my opinion.   

 

our free throw deficiency at this point is what it is and i agree with you we have to live with under 50% with french and 53% with goodwin.  but i would never bench them for the "final few minutes" because of their less than stellar free throw percentage.   maybe the last few seconds that makes sense.   but not minutes.   

Ford only did this a few times, but I have French throw the inbounds and trail the play.  Stay out of bounds until the first outlet pass is completed to another player.  Yes, we are playing four on five for a couple of seconds.  If the opponent grabs French without the ball, that should be intentional.

 

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2 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

i am sure every coach in the A10 would love to see us react as such and bench french and goodwin.    what we would gain in free throws we would easily lose in rebounding, defense and scoring with the clock running in my opinion.   

 

our free throw deficiency at this point is what it is and i agree with you we have to live with under 50% with french and 53% with goodwin.  but i would never bench them for the "final few minutes" because of their less than stellar free throw percentage.   maybe the last few seconds that makes sense.   but not minutes.   

I tend to agree on Goodwin.  We need his leadership, ball handling, & nose for the basketball in late game situations.  You can live with his slightly above 50% FTs if you have other strong shooters around him.  He's still giving you over 1 point per possession (in the double bonus) and you trust your defense to keep the opponent below that level.  French on the other hand is too big of liability with his 35%ish FT shooting if we are only up by a few points late.  In those late game situations, you take French off the floor in favor of Bell and try to get him into some defensive possessions with offense / defense substitutions if possible because you have the time outs. 

I've also been an advocate of giving French a breather while we're in the single bonus.  Too easy for teams to hack him in that situation and get the ball back.  Obviously it depends on the game situation, but that is when I try to get French a rest if I can.

 

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I think opposing coaches have done us a major favor in not using the hack a French more. They were very late to adopting the strategy. It's just math. I think we we see it from  day one this year and only hope French sees a shooting doctor and sports shrink. 

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4 hours ago, RUBillsFan said:

I tend to agree on Goodwin.  We need his leadership, ball handling, & nose for the basketball in late game situations.  You can live with his slightly above 50% FTs if you have other strong shooters around him.  He's still giving you over 1 point per possession (in the double bonus) and you trust your defense to keep the opponent below that level.  French on the other hand is too big of liability with his 35%ish FT shooting if we are only up by a few points late.  In those late game situations, you take French off the floor in favor of Bell and try to get him into some defensive possessions with offense / defense substitutions if possible because you have the time outs. 

I've also been an advocate of giving French a breather while we're in the single bonus.  Too easy for teams to hack him in that situation and get the ball back.  Obviously it depends on the game situation, but that is when I try to get French a rest if I can.

 

With a deeper team, and a deeper front court, I see no reason for French to play more than 32 mpg. Take him out from the 12 minute time out to the 10 minute mark. And find two more minutes around single bonus time. Ditto for the 2nd half, but if the game involves a small Billiken lead, go with either Bell or Linßen to avoid the hack-a-French. We saw it a little bit last year with Bell. 

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i don't think one strategy fits all of the end game situations.  If its close, are we leading or trailing?  Are we able to score inside or outside? Are they able to score inside or outside? What is the foul condition of players on each team? How much time is on the clock?  How many time outs does each team have.  How many fouls does each team have? What players are in foul trouble?
The math on fouling a 35% free throw shooter is very attractive, especially before the double bonus.  It can easily result in 3 offensive trips, one point and little time off of the clock.  Even in double bonus its 2 points in 3 trips.  Teams generally only intentionally foul when they are trailing.  It takes guts to have even a small lead, foul the trailing opponent, stop the clock and risk the 35% shooter making both shots.

End game strategy is why you have a coach and hopefully a bench.  Ford is in much better position this season than any other in regard to quality players with varied skills.  

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4 hours ago, Aquinas said:

 

End game strategy is why you have a coach and hopefully a bench.  Ford is in much better position this season than any other in regard to quality players with varied skills.  

This is the key point. Has is such an elite shot blocker, some of the best timing, smarts, and instincts I've ever seen. Your defense is always better with Has out there. 

This year, when SLU went "big" it was almost always with Has and Bell. Ford couldn't play big if he wanted to without both. Now he can play big with any combo of French, Bell, and Linßen, with Perkins or Jimerson at the 3 and the best rebounding guard in the country at the 1 or the 2. 

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