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Sheltiedave

Five SIU observations from da Natuzzi in SoCo

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34 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Wow, it just occurred to me that Clocktoweraccords2004 is not the same poster as glazedandconfused, or is he/she/it?

And which one is GloryDays/TRavTFord?  

No, glazed tries to make actual points and will back down from a point if he's wrong. Accords is definitely Gloryravs.

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2 hours ago, glazedandconfused said:

Yes obviously I agree that stats are not laws of the universe haha which is why I stated people should not be drawing conclusions based just off of stats.

 

 

I''ve posted 2.5 times per day for a month. You've posted 4,800 times over 2,400 days (or 2.0 times per day for 6.5 years)... and that's assuming you post as much in the offseason too.... So careful throwing the v-word around old guy.

Fine, have it your way,  good luck and good bye to you. Please ignore all my future posts, you go into the ignore list.

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3 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Fine, have it your way,  good luck and good bye to you. Please ignore all my future posts, you go into the ignore list.

That's honestly nice of him to wish me good luck. So thanks old guy.

I will back down and say I've been a little hard-headed arguing semantics here but the original post (to SLU skip) was to point out Collins has struggled a lot since Eastern Washington. I don't think that is controversial. On to Tulane. 

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18 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

 

The stat literally said Goodwin has been better than Jimerson and Jacobs... Weaver just hasn't played enough to take too much from his number. 

Offensively, yes you can say Jimerson/Weaver have played the best given they both have True Shooting %s of 62% . That doesn't mean they are the best offensive players...it just means they've been playing/shooting really well in the time they've been out there.

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My bad, I wasn't clear. Offensively Jimerson is our best player and Jacobs is slightly better than Goodwin. See NH's post below. At some point you just have to understand the game. 

NH, I'm short time. But I find War to be silly as there are so many just outright obvious poor rankings. Lance Lynn is the 3rd most valuable pitcher in baseball? Zach Greinke is 5th or 6th? I don't want to turn this into a baseball WAR thread though, so hit me up in PM if you want to

 

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Switching gears but still within the subject of this thread, what has happened to our press? I realize we still have at least a token press at times, but it really isn't' the same as the exhibition and the first couple of games.  My guess is that Ford realized it was overcomplicating things for our guys and dialed it back to focus on fundamental half-court D. Additionally, it just wasn't proficient enough to be effective against better teams.

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1 minute ago, moytoy12 said:

Switching gears but still within the subject of this thread, what has happened to our press? I realize we still have at least a token press at times, but it really isn't' the same as the exhibition and the first couple of games.  My guess is that Ford realized it was overcomplicating things for our guys and dialed it back to focus on fundamental half-court D. Additionally, it just wasn't proficient enough to be effective against better teams.

Ya I think it gives up alot of open looks and with some of our offensive deficiencies he doesn't think we can keep up with teams. I would like to see it more though.

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2 minutes ago, moytoy12 said:

Switching gears but still within the subject of this thread, what has happened to our press? I realize we still have at least a token press at times, but it really isn't' the same as the exhibition and the first couple of games.  My guess is that Ford realized it was overcomplicating things for our guys and dialed it back to focus on fundamental half-court D. Additionally, it just wasn't proficient enough to be effective against better teams.

i am purely guessing here but i suspect that our depth wasnt as even as originally thought.  thus the need to save legs for the upper tier of the roster aka goodwin and french who are going to play about 35 minutes a game to have our best lineup on the floor as much as possible.   so the full court was tamed and shortened appearances.  but that is just my guess.  

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1 hour ago, Littlebill said:

No, glazed tries to make actual points and will back down from a point if he's wrong. Accords is definitely Gloryravs.

Thanks.
 

I’m dazed and confused on who is whom. Pretty sure neither is Tilly. 

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Without the height Foreman and Bess provided, and pgs finding it easier sledding not running into Isabell and Goodwin if they made it to a vertical sideline seam, our full court press became more of a press breaking practice for other teams.

We also are only proficient at one of guarding 3 pt line or preventing drives by playing off and soft at the 3 pt arc. Lack of size and experience is giving Ford all kinds of gray hair.

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4 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

you think jacobs is a  better three point shooter than goodwin?   right now?   maybe if they are playing horse.   jacobs might have the slowest release i have ever seen.   yes when he is open he shoots ok.  but right now i would rather have goodwin shoot a three than jacobs.   and i am a huge jacobs fan.   

I am looking for a guard who can effectively use and come off a screen for an open 3 pointer as part of the offense - as opposed to shoot a 3 pointer if no one is guarding them.   I had hoped (and still hope) Thatch would do that this year.   Then, we saw Jacobs do very well scoring 21 points - with initial perimeter shots from the offense and hope he might be that guy.  If not, then maybe JImerson, Weaver or Perkins might fill this role.. Other than Jimerson, and Weaver's 2 shots per game in limited minutes, not seeing enough of this.   Instead, I am mostly seeing guys shoot the 3 pointer when left open or when covered, seeing them either pass the ball or drive to the basket.   But, no, I don't see Goodwin doing this.  Goodwin creating his own 3 point shot?  Yes.  Goodwin make 1/3 ?  Yes.

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1 hour ago, glazedandconfused said:

That's honestly nice of him to wish me good luck. So thanks old guy.

I will back down and say I've been a little hard-headed arguing semantics here but the original post (to SLU skip) was to point out Collins has struggled a lot since Eastern Washington. I don't think that is controversial. On to Tulane. 

However, that wasn't the original point. On that point we are in agreement

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Trying to compare baseball stats to basketball stats is like apples vs oranges (or more like apples vs orangutans).  Basketball stats have much more noise in them (things that mess up what the stat is trying to measure) because offense especially, but also defense are more dynamic in basketball.  You're relying on the other players on the team much more and having more direct interactions with the other team.  In baseball, there is much less noise especially for offense.  The rest of the team has very little to do with what one batter does.  WAR in baseball isn't perfect, but it is much better than any similar stat for basketball.

Further, trying to draw absolutes from basketball stats only 8 games into the season is foolish.  The sample size is still way too small even for the guys who have played a lot.  The stats clearly aren't distinguishing between various roles players play on a team (Weaver can't play center, Jimerson isn't a PG, etc.), so you can't just pick the top 5 and call that your best lineup.  IMO as has been said, the best you can glean is that Weaver has (very likely) played well in the limited minutes he has been given.  It doesn't mean Weaver is the best on the team and should play 35+ mpg, but it means maybe he should get a few more minutes than he's getting currently.

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Weaver’s role was just what I described when he signed. He is a fifth year senior that provides stout competition for Jacobs and Collins in practice, can shoot the 3(microwave offense,) has energy to defend in a press, and can help handle the rock in limited minutes.

He has been a plus from 3 pt, with six 3s, and he has helped both Collins and Jacobs progress as pgs. Great transfer in this regard.

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8 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Trying to compare baseball stats to basketball stats is like apples vs oranges (or more like apples vs orangutans).  Basketball stats have much more noise in them (things that mess up what the stat is trying to measure) because offense especially, but also defense are more dynamic in basketball.  You're relying on the other players on the team much more and having more direct interactions with the other team.  In baseball, there is much less noise especially for offense.  The rest of the team has very little to do with what one batter does.  WAR in baseball isn't perfect, but it is much better than any similar stat for basketball.

Further, trying to draw absolutes from basketball stats only 8 games into the season is foolish.  The sample size is still way too small even for the guys who have played a lot.  The stats clearly aren't distinguishing between various roles players play on a team (Weaver can't play center, Jimerson isn't a PG, etc.), so you can't just pick the top 5 and call that your best lineup.  IMO as has been said, the best you can glean is that Weaver has (very likely) played well in the limited minutes he has been given.  It doesn't mean Weaver is the best on the team and should play 35+ mpg, but it means maybe he should get a few more minutes than he's getting currently.

This. And it's really hard to account for actual in-game scenarios in basketball stats. Matchups, spacing, combinations of players, etc. Not to mention for baseball there are simply more data points. They play like a million games per year, allowing for more regression to the mean.

An example of a good, but flawed, statistic often used in basketball is the "+/-". Seems obvious, better players will have a positive +/-, i.e. their teams will score more than the opponent when they're in the game. BUT, what about the end of games, when you might have a player subbed out on offense if he sucks at free throws? If you're out on offense and in on defense, your +/- will be skewed; obviously, if you're out of the game when your team has the ball, and in the game when the other team has the ball, your +/- will take a hit. Does that mean a player like that is worse overall than another one? No...it means he's bad at free throws and isn't good to have in the game in certain scenarios.

Same could be said for the "should Bell start" argument. He might not be one of the top 5 best players but it's clear he brings something to the table not reflected in stats, i.e. French not racking up early fouls.

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1 hour ago, rgbilliken said:

Same could be said for the "should Bell start" argument. He might not be one of the top 5 best players but it's clear he brings something to the table not reflected in stats, i.e. French not racking up early fouls.

And at least marginally better performances that aren’t reflected in the stats (better positioning, jump balls, impacted but not blocked shots). Besides, we need Bell to get as much PT as possible because we’re gonna need him against Wiley when we play auburn. 

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29 minutes ago, RUBillsFan said:

Trying to compare baseball stats to basketball stats is like apples vs oranges (or more like apples vs orangutans).  Basketball stats have much more noise in them (things that mess up what the stat is trying to measure) because offense especially, but also defense are more dynamic in basketball.  You're relying on the other players on the team much more and having more direct interactions with the other team.  In baseball, there is much less noise especially for offense.  The rest of the team has very little to do with what one batter does.  WAR in baseball isn't perfect, but it is much better than any similar stat for basketball.

Further, trying to draw absolutes from basketball stats only 8 games into the season is foolish.  The sample size is still way too small even for the guys who have played a lot.  The stats clearly aren't distinguishing between various roles players play on a team (Weaver can't play center, Jimerson isn't a PG, etc.), so you can't just pick the top 5 and call that your best lineup.  IMO as has been said, the best you can glean is that Weaver has (very likely) played well in the limited minutes he has been given.  It doesn't mean Weaver is the best on the team and should play 35+ mpg, but it means maybe he should get a few more minutes than he's getting currently.

I wasn't comparing basketball and baseball stats. Only the idea that someone sees one and then determines that it is fact. I just picked WAR because it's touted as a definitive guide to a players value by many people, and it's seriously flawed as the defensive stats are all over the place with different rankings and for most people there are just much less subjective stats to determine a players offensive value. And honestly how do you put a lick of value in a rating system that has Lance Lynn as the 3rd best pitcher in mlb. If the stat can be so wrong ranking one guy, how do you have any faith in it's ranking of the next guy?

 

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