The Wiz Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 And we move on to the PAC12. The Bills are currently at C-.. I think normally we would be at C but have been downgraded a bit because of being shorthanded. Again we have a very winnable game if we can keep 8 players in the game. One thing I did before the SIU game (which was also even) was to run a scenario where we go into OT. It didn't turn out well. Fortunately we beat them in regulation. Same this time around. The computer feels that the Bills and OT do not match up well ...so we need to win in regulation. OSU is a C+ team....slightly above average team. Let's see what the teams look like on paper...... .................SLU................Off..............OSU....................................SLU................Def..........OSU PPG..........F..........................................C+.....................................B......................................C+ FG%..........F..........................................A-......................................C+....................................C+ 3P%.........F-.........................................F.........................................D........................................D FT%.........D..........................................B-.................................................................................... Reb..........D..........................................C.........................................B-.......................................A Top performers in the nation Goodwin.........Stls...22nd' French..............Blks...25th OSU Eubanks............FG%...15th (70%)........blks....94th So we have 2 teams that can neither shoot or defend the 3. The difference is OSU can shoot inside the arc. I think our defense may be successful in containing them Tinkle leads the team in pts, assts, reb and stls...Eubanks leads in blocks and FG% Bottom line.....Finish the game with 8 players.....Slash....42/30 70....we don't want to get into a foul shooting contest with them...while they aren't great shooters in a close game it could be the difference. ...Get at least as many rebs as they do....TOs ..single digit or at least 5 TO differential. Stop Eubanks and keep Tinkle. from going...all out Maybe clog the lane to slow the flow. Making an extra FT or 3 pt shot could be the difference in this game.....Let's flush them away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Hmmm. Normally the Wiz and Pomeroy are within a point or two of each other on the spread. Pomeroy has us as 6 point dogs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Flush Tinkle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, kshoe said: Hmmm. Normally the Wiz and Pomeroy are within a point or two of each other on the spread. Pomeroy has us as 6 point dogs. You are correct...when I ran the OT scenario....we lose by 6.... I will leave it at even and hope we can make some FTs at the end of regulation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 are they bad? I'd think at home, playing depleted Bills and they're P5 conference we'd be big underdogs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 16 minutes ago, almaman said: are they bad? I'd think at home, playing depleted Bills and they're P5 conference we'd be big underdogs. It's technically a neutral site game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 o i c like Kansas at The Sprint center Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 5 hours ago, almaman said: are they bad? I'd think at home, playing depleted Bills and they're P5 conference we'd be big underdogs. They are not as good as Murray St. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Compton Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 I think this is a big game for us. It could mean being back above .500, getting another neutral site win against a P5 team, and building some confidence for the home stretch of the non-con schedule against two less competitive teams. The Detroit loss will sting all season, and not to give the beavers too much credit, but a win here could put us back on the right track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 What am I missing here? A C+ team at home is only a pickem against a C- team? At first glance, that doesn’t seem to make sense.; Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 14, 2017 Author Share Posted December 14, 2017 31 minutes ago, brianstl said: What am I missing here? A C+ team at home is only a pickem against a C- team? At first glance, that doesn’t seem to make sense.; Good question A momentum factor....Bills not only beat a team they were supposed to lose to (MSU) but win by double figures....meanwhile OSU edges Jville St by 1 at home... a game they should have won by 8. . In addition, even though OSU has a better record ...they have played an F- schedule...the Bills have played a B schedule. And finally, the Bills have been handicapped...both literally and figuratively. Think of it as a horse that has been handicapped....added weight to slow the horse down to even up the race....while it slows the horse down ...more times than not the horse still finishes in the money. The Bills handicap is a thin lineup....slowing them down but still having a good chance to win. The C- should probably be higher and OSU may be over rated because of a soft schedule. So even spread. If the weight on the horse turns out to be too heavy...handicap will change for the next race (game) Bottom line....it is a quirk that usually happens in the beginning of the season and fades as the season progresses. And of course this whole season has been a quirk so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 14, 2017 Share Posted December 14, 2017 Brianstl you appear to be putting too much weight or reliance on a letter designation. The ratings and rankings are convenient markers to be used, not firm designations of what a team can or cannot do. These are the Teamrankings standings before the prior game against MSU: SLU 212, MSU 98. Most if not all of the stats from prior games this season favored MSU, and yet we won by 14 points. This should not have happened but it did. Statistics and rankings are not cast in stone, there is leeway involved in all of this. As you well know we have been playing with a team that was preparing (prior to the season's start) to play with additional players, players that were a good portion of our offensive capacity. This, so far, has gone overboard and we have had to play with a pretty reduced team, both in numbers and in offensive capacity. The fact that we won the game against MSU indicates that a fix has started to take hold that allows our team to play and win. What we have to see now is how well the fix works, not the prior numbers for this season. I think, if we play like we did in the last game and the refs are not the asses that officiated against Houston, that we can beat Oregon St. regardless of the letter rankings or numerical standings involved. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Tomorrow's matchup of centers will be interesting to watch. The Beavers 6'10 Drew Eubanks has, as the Wiz says, averages 15.3 ppg, has 17 blocks for the year, 70% from the field, 76% from the line and hits the boards at 6.8 per game. He's averaging 30 minutes per game. What will French do against Eubanks? Can French handle Eubanks on the defensive end without getting into foul trouble? Will Foreman be available for some relief work? Oregon State gives their five starters heavy minutes, 35 to 26, and really only goes 8 deep, with only 8 players average double digit minutes. With the Beavers at 29.7% from the three, have we finally met our match? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeniceMenace Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 hour ago, HoosierPal said: Tomorrow's matchup of centers will be interesting to watch. The Beavers 6'10 Drew Eubanks has, as the Wiz says, averages 15.3 ppg, has 17 blocks for the year, 70% from the field, 76% from the line and hits the boards at 6.8 per game. He's averaging 30 minutes per game. What will French do against Eubanks? Can French handle Eubanks on the defensive end without getting into foul trouble? Will Foreman be available for some relief work? Oregon State gives their five starters heavy minutes, 35 to 26, and really only goes 8 deep, with only 8 players average double digit minutes. With the Beavers at 29.7% from the three, have we finally met our match? The Bayou Billiken wants to keep the rebounding chain and he will not be denied!!! HoosierPal and David King like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Looking forward to this game, lets go Bills! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David King Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 1 hour ago, Old guy said: Looking forward to this game, lets go Bills! I'm not sure I can stay awake that late. I hope I can find a blank tape, so I can record it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iggy Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Is this onTV? Streaming? Where can I find it? Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 9 minutes ago, Iggy said: Is this onTV? Streaming? Where can I find it? Thanks! Pac12Network. 1759 on UVerse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyMo213 Posted December 16, 2017 Share Posted December 16, 2017 Fućk a-10 talk “Granted, Oregon State (7-3) has a far better record than Saint Louis (5-5), but neither side has gotten a win over a quality opponent to date” yeah Virginia tech really sucks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
615Billiken Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Man, if we can win this one and have to wins against P5 teams I will be weirdly satisfied with the season thus far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 On 12/13/2017 at 3:47 PM, The Wiz said: Bottom line.....Finish the game with 8 players.....Slash....42/30 70....we don't want to get into a foul shooting contest with them...while they aren't great shooters in a close game it could be the difference. ...Get at least as many rebs as they do....TOs ..single digit or at least 5 TO differential. Stop Eubanks and keep Tinkle. from going...all out Maybe clog the lane to slow the flow. Making an extra FT or 3 pt shot could be the difference in this game.....Let's flush them away. In this game I deviated from the other forecasters.....Most had at least a 7 1/2 to 8 pt spread in favor of OSU. I had the Bills even and I think that was the right thing to do. Not only because the actual spread was much smaller....but because the game was actually a back and forth even game all the way to the end. I think the best way to analyze this game is to look at the bottom line from my original post above..... Finish the game with 8 players---fail...if we do finish with 8 ...I think we win Slash....42/30/ 70 ---pass/ fail/ fail...even with a projected weak slash line we failed....we needed 1 more 3 and 4 more FTs to make the line...and then we would have had a 4 pt win ...we don't want to get into a foul shooting contest with them...while they aren't great shooters in a close game it could be the difference------They weren't great foul shooters.....65.5% but it was as I mentioned... this was the difference....The Bills a dismal 54.5%... as mentioned above ...70%= 4 pts Rebs equal--- fail...35-31...another probable difference maker in this game TOs ..single digit or at least 5 TO differential. --- fail and fail....if we make 9 TOs...we win by 9...we also lose the TO battle..O 12 SLU 15...a 5 differential and we win by double figures. Stop Eubanks and Tinkle---fail and fail...stopping even 1 of them and we win.... Making an extra FT or 3 pt shot could be the difference in this game----Actually, making 1 FT and 1 three and we win. Failing on all those bottom line items...Why wasn't it a blowout? Because the computer thought we were the better team. But because of the probability of failure in a number of areas ...it felt a loss was possible.... Our failures cancel out our better team team status....computer goes even spread. Final analysis...They didn't beat us....we lost a game we should have won...again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Wiz, I think the team we are fielding this year is really two separate and distinct teams. 1. The team Ford prepared to field up to the time of situation 2. This team had better offense, more players, and more balance. It probably would not have lost all the games we have lost, and 2. The team which he actually fielded after situation 2. This team is short in players and short in offensive capacity. Since he did not prepare for a decent amount of time to play with team 2, there are flaws and bloops that become evident as we play games. This team has probably lost more games than team 1 would have. This team is also not fully practiced in what they have to do, they get it at times and blow it other times. This loss to Oregon State was painful because we really could have won, but we just did not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 17, 2017 Author Share Posted December 17, 2017 Let me be clear here. There are many variables that come into play in determining outcome. But the key one for the Bills not only this game but so far this season is...8 players. Which is why I list it 1st each time. In the OSU game we finished with 6 1/2 players. (4 foul players are like a half) ...French gone... Anthony 4 fouls. All the other variables in the game feed into this one factor. ....Can you win with 8? ....Yes...The real question is can you win with less than 8....yes, but only against weak teams and good teams that have a bad night. The problem is there is no leeway ...no margin of error. You will always have someone who is sick or injured or etc....What are the chances of getting through a game with no one fouling out or accumulating 4 fouls. ( 1/2 players) In a normal situation (13 or 14 players) foul trouble or short term injuries can be absorbed. But not in the Bills situation. The very fact that Ford has to change his strategy because of depth changes the whole game. As long as we continue in this short handed pattern we will have erratic predictions and results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 17, 2017 Share Posted December 17, 2017 Could not agree more with what you say. We are too short handed to be able to win consistently and the refs can screw us any time they wish by fouling our players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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