b.hayes Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I know that our final 10 games will have a much higer degree of difficulty than the last 10 had, but I can't see us going worse than 7-3 down the stretch here unless something drastic happens. Split Philly, Split VCU, and a loss either @UMass or home to GW. That leaves us at 26-5 heading into the A-10 tournament and would nearly ensure the #1 seed in the A10 tournament. Per RPIForecast.com, a 26-5 record would leave us with an RPI around 21-22. Richmond was pretty comfortably projected to be the best opponent we're gonna play the rest of the season outside of UMass, VCU and GW and we thrashed them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b.hayes Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Again, per RPIForecast, are the probabilities of winning each of the 10 remaining games. GMU - 89% SJU - 61% LAS - 62% VCU - 57% GMU - 76% GWU - 66% DUQ - 92% VCU - 36% DAY - 74% MASS - 35% If you assume we win any games at 75%+, that locks us in 3 wins. There is an 85% chance we win at least 1 game in Philly, so that makes 4 wins. There is an 83% chance we win at least one of Dayton + UMass, which makes 5. The last games to consider are VCU, GW and @VCU. There is a 67% chance we take at least 2, which gets us to the 7 wins I'm looking for. But, that doesn't exceed the 75% assumption threshold, so I wouldn't claim it's an MB73 **** Lock or anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Throw all the numbers out the window. The Bills are on the warpath. But seriously, 26-5 at worst, is pretty special. Hell, how about if we only drop 2 more, repeat in Brooklyn, and head into the Dance at 30-4? Lot of Kool-Aid going down tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b.hayes Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 26-5 would also mark two straight years that I correctly predicted their regular season record on the dot. Posted 04 November 2013 - 01:16 PM 26-5, regular season (including Rockhurst). A10 regular season and conference champions. (3-0 in A10 tourney makes it 29-5). 3-seed in the tournament. 2-1 in the tournament for a final record of 31-6. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Glad your predictions turn so well, but I hope we do better this year than that. I could see a loss to GW, amd maybe a loss to VCU but no more. I am going for 27-4 by the end of the regular play. Will be delighted if we manage to win another game and end 28-3 in the regular season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DirtyRican Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 One at a time. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Pine Jim Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 One at a time. Thanks. +1, Rican ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b.hayes Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Fair enough. Hard not to get fired up after that game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills By 40 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Or we enter the NCAA tournament on a 26 game winning streak and finish the season on a 32 game winning streak. Sounds alright to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Glad your predictions turn so well, but I hope we do better this year than that. I could see a loss to GW, amd maybe a loss to VCU but no more. I am going for 27-4 by the end of the regular play. Will be delighted if we manage to win another game and end 28-4 in the regular season. I see losses at UMass and VCU and maybe one other -- like in Philly -- but the Bills better not lose at home, not even to GW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I see close games, maybe, at UMass and VCU and maybe one other -- like in Philly -- but the Bills better not lose at home, not even to GW. Fixed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Fixed. Believe me, I'd love for the Bills to go undefeated the rest of the way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Believe me, I'd love for the Bills to go undefeated the rest of the way. Wouldn't we all, but hard to see any sure-fire losses on the schedule after the game tonight.. UMass and VCU haven't been taking the world by storm of late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Our toughest game the rest of the season will be the @VCU game. It was 1 of only 3 losses I had picked in the preseason (the other 2 were Wisc and Wich St.)....But long before that we will face St. J....that will be our most difficult in the next 7....more so than VCU @ Fetz and GW...Everyone likes to focus on the "good" teams. It would be a mistake to overlook St. J. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Our toughest game the rest of the season will be the @VCU game. It was 1 of only 3 losses I had picked in the preseason (the other 2 were Wisc and Wich St.)....But long before that we will face St. J....that will be our most difficult in the next 7....more so than VCU @ Fetz and GW...Everyone likes to focus on the "good" teams. It would be a mistake to overlook St. J. Yes, but the Bills have owned St. Joe's even more than Rhode Island had owned the Bills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We surely have to take them one game at a time but the way we are coming together is starting to remind me of post R I last year. Jett is giving us a super charged upturn like DE did last year at this time. Plus this season A 10 not nearly as good as last years. VCU and Butler as 2 and 3 were tougher than VCU and Umass this year. no X or Temple. It took a while to really feel it but team is now playing like we thought they might as we were returning 4 senior starters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yes, but the Bills have owned St. Joe's even more than Rhode Island had owned the Bills. Hope you are right..... And if we can get Evans rolling ....I know his numbers were good (15pts and 10 rebounds) but he still looked off to me...not like the DE of old. If he can get that back, we could be on a roll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills By 40 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 And if we can get Evans rolling ....I know his numbers were good (15pts and 10 rebounds) but he still looked off to me...not like the DE of old. If he can get that back, we could be on a roll. Agreed! He may have recorded a nice double double, but he still didn't play like I would've expected. If you told me the final score of the game and asked me to guess DE's stat line, it would've been a lot nicer than in reality. On the bright side, it's nice to see big roles played by people like JJ AM and even MM chimed in a couple times last night. We're gonna need that if DE's gonna stay stuck in this stage of mediocrity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NextYearBill Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Jett = Chris Paul Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACE Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Our toughest game the rest of the season will be the @VCU game. It was 1 of only 3 losses I had picked in the preseason (the other 2 were Wisc and Wich St.)....But long before that we will face St. J....that will be our most difficult in the next 7....more so than VCU @ Fetz and GW...Everyone likes to focus on the "good" teams. It would be a mistake to overlook St. J. Both Philly games will be very tough. I will be fine with a split. Let's get that first to take a little pressure off that second one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorB Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We were very, very impressive last night. I was blown away by how easily we dominated Richmond, and their supposedly great guards (but man they are little); and the game was over by halftime. We made the Spiders' offense look silly out there, we were very impressive on defense; and their guards made Jordair look like an all-American. this team could be very tough come tournament time -- IF we can shoot from outside (remember Oregon!!!). That said; I'm going out on a limb here: I think the LaSalle game is big trouble. I'm ready to concede that it may well be our first loss in A10. What will the spread be? Ace is correct: My main worry right now is the 2 road game swing next week. And if not LaSalle-- I think our losses will come to hard to predict teams -- like @ Duquesne, which was a very lackluster effort ... I hope I'm wrong but 2 wins in Philly will be very tough. Look at UMass losing in Olean last night... I think we'll definitely lose 2-3 in conference before it's said and done -- our schedule is back-loaded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Jett = Chris Paul Jett = Tony Parker with defense (dribble penetration, fundamental passing, mid-range game, etc.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 That said; I'm going out on a limb here: I think the LaSalle game is big trouble. I'm ready to concede that it may well be our first loss in A10. What will the spread be? I just do not think so. LaSalle has won one and lost one with GW, lost to VCU and to St. Bonnie. They did defeat Duquesne and RI. I do not see them defeating us unless we have an injury or our game is really off that night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I just do not think so. LaSalle has won one and lost one with GW, lost to VCU and to St. Bonnie. They did defeat Duquesne and RI. I do not see them defeating us unless we have an injury or our game is really off that night. You continue to downplay the difficulty of winning at St. Joes and LaSalle. Both teams are far superior to Rhode Island and Duquesne and we all know how difficult getting those wins were. For anyone dreaming of running the table, Ken Pomeroy currently gives it a 2.3% chance of happening. Sagarin has it as a 1.5% probability. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 My guess....11-0 in the last 10 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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