Lunardi Update 5/15

[Taj79]

@cgeldmacher ---better than last year? Wow! That would seem to be a rather lofty goal and tremendously weighty expectation. That's saying a lot for a team that went a best-ever 28 and 7, and won it's first outright league title since the 70's. I like your guts.

I think that's too unrealistic. However, I think they can have a better season but still post a lesser record. Success would have to be measured by making the Sweet Sixteen. Playing at least a game longer than last year is the only way we surpass last year. Can it be done? Don't know but I think so.

We essentially return four starters ---- Jett, McCall, Evans and Loe. We had these four last year plus Mitchell, Ellis, Barnett and Remekun. Only Barnett (limited at best) returns in that group. The rest are unknowns. McBroom is a possible replacment for Mitchell but we still need to see. The rest are unproven freshmen.

These are my question going forward: do Manning and Glaze produce anything worthwhile (and Glaze to me is meaningless as a returning starter)? Does Agbeko provide at least as much/little as Remekun did? Does Lancona/Crawford replace Ellis' three point option? Does Barnett improve? Is McBroom good enough to provide a similar three guard rotation like last year's, let alone replace some of Mitchell's production? Does Evans continue his beast mode performance from the end of last year? Will everyone stay healthy? What will Loe be -- the same, or improved?

I like us better than any other team in the A10 with maybe the exception of VCU. And only VCU because you don't see a knuckleballer every day and they are especially tough in their place. I stil take nothing for granted. When we make the Dance, season one is complete. Then, success is defined by season two, which is elevated now to Sweet 16.

[slu72]

KM and CE will be missed. Maybe KM more because of his leadership. We got a whole lot better when he came back from his injury. Key players this year who need to make a leap forward are RL and MM. RL has to take some heat off of DE on the inside and find his 3 pt shot. MM has to be more of a leader and more aggressive. Any thing we get from the Frosh will be icing on the cake.

[JettFlight5]

I think Taj is right. The overall record is secondary to what round of the NCAA this season ends in.

[NH]

KM and CE will be missed. Maybe KM more because of his leadership. We got a whole lot better when he came back from his injury. Key players this year who need to make a leap forward are RL and MM. RL has to take some heat off of DE on the inside and find his 3 pt shot. MM has to be more of a leader and more aggressive. Any thing we get from the Frosh will be icing on the cake.

KM will also be missed more because he was a better player.

CE's production alone will not be that hard to replace. However may be difficult to duplicate some of the intangibles he brought: spacing the floor, taking charges, decent passer.

[Tonka]

Last year, I did a number of posts about MM and his play and how the results of that play often tied into our wins and losses. MM played better when KM was hurt. I expect a big year from MM. Jett also needs to stay healthy. His style of play makes his chances of getting hurt pretty good. While JJ is tough and will play through pain and injury, this team is best when he is 100%. DE needs to consistently bring his "A" game the whole season. I am hoping we will see a tougher RL. He showed flashes of that last year. Word from people around the program say AM is the real deal. Small, but the real deal. Let's hope that translates well in real games. I have total confidence in JB as a solid role player this year. Great teammate, leader, hard worker, smart, and knows the system.

Not even mentioning anything about the freshmen, but if we are firing on all pistons this will be one special team.

[Quality Is Job 1]

I'm expecting the Billikens to be better in 2013-14 than in 2012-13, even after losing Kwamain Mitchell. The foundation of the last two NCAA Tournament teams has been Dwayne Evans, Jordair Jett, Mike McCall, and Rob Loe -- the 2010 recruiting class. Yes, Brian Conklin, Mitchell, and Cody Ellis were significant contributors -- if not close to stars -- but without the '10s, they wouldn't have been Dance-worthy. Many of you expected the '12-13 team to be a step down from '11-12 because of the loss of Conklin, the leading scorer, but that wasn't the case, at all. Some of you are pointing to the difference between how the '12-13 team played when Mitchell was out and after he returned, but that's because the team prepared in the offseason to be "his" team. They weren't expecting him to be out. But now they know he's not going to be there, so they'll prepare (mentally) differently. McCall won't have anyone to defer to, so he'll play like the team's leader. He won't be looking over his shoulder knowing that his role will change. We'll see a better, more mature version of the 2010-11 McCall, who led that team in scoring.

Imagine all four of those foundational players having just 67 percent of the junior-senior jump that Conklin had! And that's not factoring in Barnett. Moreover, I'm expecting John Manning and Grandy Glaze to improve and be steady, and I'm expecting Austin McBroom, Reggie Agbeko, Mike Crawford, and Tanner Lancona all to be ready to contribute -- though we might not have to really count on more than one of them (likely McBroom) to play heavy minutes. I'm expecting a dominating team, and if all of the cylinders are clicking in March and the bracket shapes up right, Sweet Sixteen should be the floor, not the ceiling of what the team could accomplish in the Tourney and I wouldn't be surprised if they're playing in April.

[jimbofive]

I'm expecting the Billikens to be better in 2013-14 than in 2012-13, even after losing Kwamain Mitchell. The foundation of the last two NCAA Tournament teams has been Dwayne Evans, Jordair Jett, Mike McCall, and Rob Loe -- the 2010 recruiting class. Yes, Brian Conklin, Mitchell, and Cody Ellis were significant contributors -- if not close to stars -- but without the '10s, they wouldn't have been Dance-worthy. Many of you expected the '12-13 team to be a step down from '11-12 because of the loss of Conklin, the leading scorer, but that wasn't the case, at all. Some of you are pointing to the difference between how the '12-13 team played when Mitchell was out and after he returned, but that's because the team prepared in the offseason to be "his" team. They weren't expecting him to be out. But now they know he's not going to be there, so they'll prepare (mentally) differently. McCall won't have anyone to defer to, so he'll play like the team's leader. He won't be looking over his shoulder knowing that his role will change. We'll see a better, more mature version of the 2010-11 McCall, who led that team in scoring.

Imagine all four of those foundational players having just 67 percent of the junior-senior jump that Conklin had! And that's not factoring in Barnett. Moreover, I'm expecting John Manning and Grandy Glaze to improve and be steady, and I'm expecting Austin McBroom, Reggie Agbeko, Mike Crawford, and Tanner Lancona all to be ready to contribute -- though we might not have to really count on more than one of them (likely McBroom) to play heavy minutes. I'm expecting a dominating team, and if all of the cylinders are clicking in March and the bracket shapes up right, Sweet Sixteen should be the floor, not the ceiling of what the team could accomplish in the Tourney and I wouldn't be surprised if they're playing in April.

HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE HATE

[GOSLU68]

KM was a better player before he got hurt senior year. MM, JJ, AM will be a better threesome and I hope we get the same or better from JB who I say was flawless and played up to his ability.

I would rate our guards last year as very good 8+. This year they could be 8.75

[prebilliken]

I'm expecting the Billikens to be better in 2013-14 than in 2012-13, even after losing Kwamain Mitchell. The foundation of the last two NCAA Tournament teams has been Dwayne Evans, Jordair Jett, Mike McCall, and Rob Loe -- the 2010 recruiting class. Yes, Brian Conklin, Mitchell, and Cody Ellis were significant contributors -- if not close to stars -- but without the '10s, they wouldn't have been Dance-worthy. Many of you expected the '12-13 team to be a step down from '11-12 because of the loss of Conklin, the leading scorer, but that wasn't the case, at all. Some of you are pointing to the difference between how the '12-13 team played when Mitchell was out and after he returned, but that's because the team prepared in the offseason to be "his" team. They weren't expecting him to be out. But now they know he's not going to be there, so they'll prepare (mentally) differently. McCall won't have anyone to defer to, so he'll play like the team's leader. He won't be looking over his shoulder knowing that his role will change. We'll see a better, more mature version of the 2010-11 McCall, who led that team in scoring.

Imagine all four of those foundational players having just 67 percent of the junior-senior jump that Conklin had! And that's not factoring in Barnett. Moreover, I'm expecting John Manning and Grandy Glaze to improve and be steady, and I'm expecting Austin McBroom, Reggie Agbeko, Mike Crawford, and Tanner Lancona all to be ready to contribute -- though we might not have to really count on more than one of them (likely McBroom) to play heavy minutes. I'm expecting a dominating team, and if all of the cylinders are clicking in March and the bracket shapes up right, Sweet Sixteen should be the floor, not the ceiling of what the team could accomplish in the Tourney and I wouldn't be surprised if they're playing in April.

Amen! So say we all! Here, here!

However you went to say it, I think this is how pumped we should be for this season.

[Vasalos]

Updated October bracketology:

www.explorertownbracketologist.com

[Billikenswin]

KM was a better player before he got hurt senior year. MM, JJ, AM will be a better threesome and I hope we get the same or better from JB who I say was flawless and played up to his ability.

I would rate our guards last year as very good 8+. This year they could be 8.75

I am with the folks who are very optimistic about this coming season but I saw a National publication which rated us just outside of the top 25 and it gave reasons for the first 5 out including our Bills. They questioned our ability to win as many games without KM and cited a winning record of something like 42-16 with him in the lineup since 2011 and only slighly over .500 when he was out. it is for that reason that the national pundits are cautious about our team this year despite our returning many of our top players. From a fan;s perspective the other question mark will be the loss of Cody and Cory. Cody really improved his defense last year and Cory helped us play "big" in some crucial games down the stretch. In my view, there is a simple question to be answered about this team--can it defend at the level of the teams the past two years? I think on the offensive end MM will return to his pre Kwaimain aggressive self and he will be a fine scorer. MM, Jordair and Barnett and Evans are givens in terms of the defense but can McBroom defend against big tough guards? From everything I have heard he is a fine offensive player and an excellent shooter who we will need when they double and triple team Dwayne. Can Loe finally give us the great shooting big center we hoped to have and emerged at times last year? Will the frosh mature quickly and give us very good players on the bench? If all of these questions are answered positively for our Bills then we should be a really good team come March with toughness and scoring ability. But, in truth, we do not yet know the answers. I will stay optimistic and attend every game! In any event, it should be a very fun season for the fans.

[Old guy]

Predicting the future is never easy. If and when you (plural) make the correct prediction it is almost always a matter of chance rather than rational reasoning. This applies to many fields including sports, the stock and commodities markets, etc... There are just too many variables (some hidden) which determine what actually happens before it happens.

[jimbofive]

Predicting the future is never easy. If and when you (plural) make the correct prediction it is almost always a matter of chance rather than rational reasoning. This applies to many fields including sports, the stock and commodities markets, etc... There are just too many variables (some hidden) which determine what actually happens before it happens.

[kwyjibo]

ESPN is having another A-10 preview day (the Saint Louis article is INSIDER: http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9663038/2013-14-college-basketball-preview-saint-louis-billikens).

There are two free VCU articles though and they are getting a lot of love from the hacks. They are a very good team but not that different from SLU (or LaSalle) but yet Dana O'Neill writes "the only sure thing in the Atlantic 10 is VCU" and refers to them as "team Glam". That is just pointless hyperbole. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9742926/vcu-stands-team-beat-atlantic-10

[Billikenswin]

ESPN is having another A-10 preview day (the Saint Louis article is INSIDER: http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9663038/2013-14-college-basketball-preview-saint-louis-billikens).

There are two free VCU articles though and they are getting a lot of love from the hacks. They are a very good team but not that different from SLU (or LaSalle) but yet Dana O'Neill writes "the only sure thing in the Atlantic 10 is VCU" and refers to them as "team Glam". That is just pointless hyperbole. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9742926/vcu-stands-team-beat-atlantic-10

I read the Billikens article and it is overall very positive--it was the coach who was tempering expectations, not the ESPN writer!

[kwyjibo]

I read the Billikens article and it is overall very positive--it was the coach who was tempering expectations, not the ESPN writer!

The SLU article is by a completely different (junior) writer. I was referring (by name) to Dana O'Neill who decided to go all "hype-city" on VCU.

[Pistol]

Her article is baffling. She offers virtually no support for VCU being the premier program this season. She references a big-time 2014 recruiting class, which has no bearing on this season. She references Smart's relationships with other coaches and well-run HAVOC defense. It's short on detail as to why the team may actually be good in 2013-2014.

Darius Theus and Troy Daniels are gone to graduation. DJ Haley, Justin Tuoyo, and Teddy Okereafor are gone. They're being replaced by six freshmen, two of whom redshirted last season. I know Reddic, Brandenburg, Weber, and Graham are back, but they have a lot of new pieces this season. Who knows how well it will come together?

I guess my point is that the program that beat them twice last season, once for the regular season conference title and once for the conference tournament title, has more stability on the roster heading into this season. VCU may well end up winning the conference this season, but I'd have a harder time picking against SLU.

[kwyjibo]

Her article is baffling. She offers virtually no support for VCU being the premier program this season. She references a big-time 2014 recruiting class, which has no bearing on this season. She references Smart's relationships with other coaches and well-run HAVOC defense. It's short on detail as to why the team may actually be good in 2013-2014.

Darius Theus and Troy Daniels are gone to graduation. DJ Haley, Justin Tuoyo, and Teddy Okereafor are gone. They're being replaced by six freshmen, two of whom redshirted last season. I know Reddic, Brandenburg, Weber, and Graham are back, but they have a lot of new pieces this season. Who knows how well it will come together?

I guess my point is that the program that beat them twice last season, once for the regular season conference title and once for the conference tournament title, has more stability on the roster heading into this season. VCU may well end up winning the conference this season, but I'd have a harder time picking against SLU.

Far better analysis than Dana O'Neill.

[majerus mojo]

Saint Louis Billikens

2012-13: 28-7 (13-3 A-10)

In-conference offense: 1.08 points per possession (6th)

In-conference defense: 0.92 points allowed per possession (1st)

These are heady times in the shadow of the Gateway Arch. The Billikens won the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament titles en route to a school-record 28 victories last season. They landed a No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament and finished the season ranked 13th in the AP poll. And with four senior starters back, this season could be even better.

Bright and sunny isn't Jim Crews' M.O., though. He's quick to point out the three seniors the team lost. But now in his second season at the helm -- and his first since being named the permanent coach after the passing of Rick Majerus -- Crews has a loaded group that plays with intensity and energy, especially at the defensive end.

Saint Louis allowed just 86.9 points per 100 possessions last season, eighth in the nation. They'll be just as gritty this time around. Jordair Jett, who came off the bench last season, still was a first team all-defense selection in the A-10, and should take over at point guard for the departed Kwamain Mitchell. Considering that Jett led the team in assists and shot better than 50 percent on his way to 9.0 points per game, the team is in good hands.

Plus, Jett will have plenty of help. Rock-solid Dwayne Evans, a first team all-conference pick last season, is back inside, coming off a season in which he averaged 14.0 ppg and 7.7 rpg. He'll again be flanked by 6-foot-11 Rob Loe, a skilled big man who had more 3-pointers (29) than blocked shots (10) a season ago. Mike McCall Jr. led the team in 3-point shooting (40.2 percent) and steals (46), while junior Grandy Glaze, who started 20 games but only averaged 12 minutes, moves into a bigger role at forward. That's a lot of firepower for a team still smoldering after an upset loss to Oregon in the third round of the NCAA tourney.

Crews still wants to temper expectations, though. "One of our traits is we don't get too high or too low," he says. "We've got a good nucleus coming back, but I can't overemphasize that we lost three guys that were very, very wise basketball players." That trio of Mitchell, Cody Ellis and Cory Remekun will be missed, surely, but some of that change can be offset by Austin McBroom's impact. The 5-9 guard sat out last season after transferring from Central Michigan, where he averaged 10.9 ppg as a frosh. Along with holdovers Jake Barnett and John Manning, he should give Saint Louis plenty of depth, which will only grow if any of the three freshmen contribute.

So even if Crews won't say it, that's a top-notch lineup. And with a group that is as gritty as it is talented, another conference title could be in the offing.

Projected 2013-14 conference finish: 2nd 1st

Fixed. HEADY TIMES IN THE SHADOW OF THE GATEWAY ARCH, YOU GUYS.

[Billikenswin]

Saint Louis Billikens

2012-13: 28-7 (13-3 A-10)

In-conference offense: 1.08 points per possession (6th)

In-conference defense: 0.92 points allowed per possession (1st)

These are heady times in the shadow of the Gateway Arch. The Billikens won the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament titles en route to a school-record 28 victories last season. They landed a No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament and finished the season ranked 13th in the AP poll. And with four senior starters back, this season could be even better.

Bright and sunny isn't Jim Crews' M.O., though. He's quick to point out the three seniors the team lost. But now in his second season at the helm -- and his first since being named the permanent coach after the passing of Rick Majerus -- Crews has a loaded group that plays with intensity and energy, especially at the defensive end.

Saint Louis allowed just 86.9 points per 100 possessions last season, eighth in the nation. They'll be just as gritty this time around. Jordair Jett, who came off the bench last season, still was a first team all-defense selection in the A-10, and should take over at point guard for the departed Kwamain Mitchell. Considering that Jett led the team in assists and shot better than 50 percent on his way to 9.0 points per game, the team is in good hands.

Plus, Jett will have plenty of help. Rock-solid Dwayne Evans, a first team all-conference pick last season, is back inside, coming off a season in which he averaged 14.0 ppg and 7.7 rpg. He'll again be flanked by 6-foot-11 Rob Loe, a skilled big man who had more 3-pointers (29) than blocked shots (10) a season ago. Mike McCall Jr. led the team in 3-point shooting (40.2 percent) and steals (46), while junior Grandy Glaze, who started 20 games but only averaged 12 minutes, moves into a bigger role at forward. That's a lot of firepower for a team still smoldering after an upset loss to Oregon in the third round of the NCAA tourney.

Crews still wants to temper expectations, though. "One of our traits is we don't get too high or too low," he says. "We've got a good nucleus coming back, but I can't overemphasize that we lost three guys that were very, very wise basketball players." That trio of Mitchell, Cody Ellis and Cory Remekun will be missed, surely, but some of that change can be offset by Austin McBroom's impact. The 5-9 guard sat out last season after transferring from Central Michigan, where he averaged 10.9 ppg as a frosh. Along with holdovers Jake Barnett and John Manning, he should give Saint Louis plenty of depth, which will only grow if any of the three freshmen contribute.

So even if Crews won't say it, that's a top-notch lineup. And with a group that is as gritty as it is talented, another conference title could be in the offing.

Projected 2013-14 conference finish: 2nd 1st

Fixed. HEADY TIMES IN THE SHADOW OF THE GATEWAY ARCH, YOU GUYS.

For those who did not see the original--the pick of 2nd was in the original and it became 1st only after our fan changed it! I am not suggesting that we cannot come in 1st!

[billikenfan05]

For those who did not see the original--the pick of 2nd was in the original and it became 1st only after our fan changed it! I am not suggesting that we cannot come in 1st!

gee thanks....my puny brain would have never figured that out.

[billiken_roy]

lunardi doesnt have a clue. identifies evans as an inside player. worthless.

[majerus mojo]

For those who did not see the original--the pick of 2nd was in the original and it became 1st only after our superfan changed it! I am not suggesting that we cannot come in 1st!

Fixed again.

[Vasalos]

College basketball is finally here! Good luck this season.

www.explorertownbracketologist.com

[AMDG]

There are two free VCU articles though and they are getting a lot of love from the hacks. They are a very good team but not that different from SLU (or LaSalle) but yet Dana O'Neill writes "the only sure thing in the Atlantic 10 is VCU" and refers to them as "team Glam". That is just pointless hyperbole. http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9742926/vcu-stands-team-beat-atlantic-10

This is the problem with women sports writers. Apparently logic is directly linked to the Y chromosome. Someone ought to the unplug the computer in her kitchen so we don't have to suffer her anymore.