1st of 6

[NextYearBill]

RL sets screens like he has money on the opposing team

[billiken_roy]

while i wont defend loe's screen (agree they arent good), jett might be the worst in the world at using a screen. rarely makes an attempt to rub his man on the screen and more times than not goes in the opposite direction of the actual screen. while i understand not using the screen occasionally might be nice diversion and keep your man guessing, it probably is best to actually use the screen effectively and create a mismatch. mccall and barnett arent the best at it as well. but not as bad as jett. ironically that rarely happened last year. another example of "the little things" and percission that crews isnt focused on.

[Westy03]

I agree Roy, our guards arent doing a very good job of setting up the screen and using it to their advantage. On the other hand, Mitchell is one of the best at setting up his man for the screen and using it to either drive, shoot, or dish.

[waldo027]

So is the season over or not, Clock?

[jbizzle09]

Sorry, hit the wrong key. My post continues:

5. JM played very well down low. Hopefully, Crews keeps playing him alot these next 5 games so that JM keeps developing, keeps gaining confidence and hopefully provides the interior threat we need as I just don't see CR, RL and CE stepping up to do so and I see DE trying but being too small.

6. We have very little outside shooting. And relying upon RL, CE and JB to do so will not be pretty. Hopefully, the biggest improvement caused by the return of KM will be that MM can be freed up to provide the outside shooting we desparately need -- which in turn, will help open things up for the bigs.

We relied on Cody and Rob to do much of our outside shooting last season and that turned out pretty well. Last year they accounted for 42% of SLU's three-point attempts. The team shot 35.9% for the season last year, which was 93rd in the nation. In 7 games this year, they are shooting 36.9%, which is 81st. I think you might be over-inflating our lack of outside shooting a bit. Any percentage over 33% is perfectly acceptable, and SLU is currently over that. In the past five games, SLU has shot over 35% from three in each game, twice going over 40%. In the losses to Kansas and Washington, SLU shot a combined 19-49 from three (38.8%).

Kwamain's return will provide another outside shooter, but there is no desperate need for one right now, as we are actually shooting a decent percentage. I expect the team's percentage to stay around the same when he returns, as Cody will probably get his percentage a little higher than where it currently is (33.3%), McCall won't be able to keep his percentage that high (55%), Loe is basically a 33% shooter (which is where he's at) and Kwamain will probably shoot in the high 30s or low 40s. Barnett (38.9%) probably won't see any real action once Kwamain returns.

[Tonka]

We relied on Cody and Rob to do much of our outside shooting last season and that turned out pretty well. Last year they accounted for 42% of SLU's three-point attempts. The team shot 35.9% for the season last year, which was 93rd in the nation. In 7 games this year, they are shooting 36.9%, which is 81st. I think you might be over-inflating our lack of outside shooting a bit. Any percentage over 33% is perfectly acceptable, and SLU is currently over that. In the past five games, SLU has shot over 35% from three in each game, twice going over 40%. In the losses to Kansas and Washington, SLU shot a combined 19-49 from three (38.8%).

Kwamain's return will provide another outside shooter, but there is no desperate need for one right now, as we are actually shooting a decent percentage. I expect the team's percentage to stay around the same when he returns, as Cody will probably get his percentage a little higher than where it currently is (33.3%), McCall won't be able to keep his percentage that high (55%), Loe is basically a 33% shooter (which is where he's at) and Kwamain will probably shoot in the high 30s or low 40s. Barnett (38.9%) probably won't see any real action once Kwamain returns.

bizzle, once again you do a great job of bringing reality to this Board. People's emotions tend to get to them when their expectations are high and not being met.

[brianstl]

The problems in the losses has been our 3 pt defense far more than our 3 pt shooting.

[willie]

Mitchell's stats:

http://statsheet.com...4-tony-mitchell

He doesn't look like anything TOO special according to these stats, but he will beat us if we let him. He is one of the most athletic players in the nation, with a decent jumper. He isn't afraid to shoot the three, but hasn't exactly shot lights out this year, 29%. I think Evans is the clear favorite to guard him, but Remekun and maybe Ellis could also. His athleticism and length are the only problem, as he probably won't beat us from outside. They are much more balanced than one would think, as he has only played 28.9 min/game. Should be an interesting matchup.

the problem I see with Evans guarding Mitchell is fouls. Evans is our best low post option and we need to keep him in the game. If he does start on Mitchell I would not let him pick up his second on him in the first half.

[jbizzle09]

The problems in the losses has been our 3 pt defense far more than our 3 pt shooting.

Yup.

In the three losses, the opponent shot 58.8%(!!!) from three. The Bills shot 36.4%, pretty much on par for the season. If the opponents and SLU shot at their averages for the three games, SLU has one possession games against all three teams with the potential of winning any one of them. Those 3-point shooting percentages in the three losses were insanely high!

[jbizzle09]

the problem I see with Evans guarding Mitchell is fouls. Evans is our best low post option and we need to keep him in the game. If he does start on Mitchell I would not let him pick up his second on him in the first half.

I think it would be wise to have Cody play on Mitchell early. Mitchell has already fouled out of two games, and Cody is very adept at drawing charges. I can see a scenario where Mitchell has to sit most of the first half.

[The Wiz]

I agree with brian and bizzle...the key to this team is to keep the 3pt % for opp down. Last year we were 9th in the nation with a 25.6% for 3's against us. It was something RM hammered away at. If we let up we struggle. In the Valpo game the Crusaders shot 23.8% ....RM would have been proud....and we won the game easily.

If we can keep that % below 30 we could go on a long run.I want us to be so good at defending the 3 that the other team passes on the shot.

[Bobby Metzinger]

the real problem in this debate is not manning. the truth is he is still shakey at best and has a lot of learning to do. that said, he looked better than what loe has the entire season. the real problem is loe. it is time for rob loe to have some sort of come to jesus meeting with himself or sit and let manning learn on the job. but folks if that happens, dont expect john manning to be our answer to the inside immediately. he isnt ready and shouldnt be expected to be the man. the more he plays the more his shortcomings will be exposed.

+1,000,000 and Division I basketball isn't the place for that.

[billikens747]

bizzle, once again you do a great job of bringing reality to this Board. People's emotions tend to get to them when their expectations are high and not being met.

MIssed shots are overlooked when we come out with the W, magnified when we lose. Good stat bizzle.

I, for one, would like to see RL set his feet and shoot. Even with the height advantage, he looks awfully afraid to get stuffed.

[Clock_Tower]

So is the season over or not, Clock?

Yes if we play in conference like we did against Valpo. What's your thought genius??

[Clock_Tower]

We relied on Cody and Rob to do much of our outside shooting last season and that turned out pretty well. Last year they accounted for 42% of SLU's three-point attempts. The team shot 35.9% for the season last year, which was 93rd in the nation. In 7 games this year, they are shooting 36.9%, which is 81st. I think you might be over-inflating our lack of outside shooting a bit. Any percentage over 33% is perfectly acceptable, and SLU is currently over that. In the past five games, SLU has shot over 35% from three in each game, twice going over 40%. In the losses to Kansas and Washington, SLU shot a combined 19-49 from three (38.8%).

Kwamain's return will provide another outside shooter, but there is no desperate need for one right now, as we are actually shooting a decent percentage. I expect the team's percentage to stay around the same when he returns, as Cody will probably get his percentage a little higher than where it currently is (33.3%), McCall won't be able to keep his percentage that high (55%), Loe is basically a 33% shooter (which is where he's at) and Kwamain will probably shoot in the high 30s or low 40s. Barnett (38.9%) probably won't see any real action once Kwamain returns.

Another classic bizzle post!! Good stuff!!

You do know that 93rd in the nation means that 92 teams were better, right?? And thanks for making my point. We did not shoot the ball good enough last year or this year. And BTW, be careful with stats and percentages after less than 10 games (7 to be exact).

And also, your raw percentages don't take into consideration which positions players are doing the shooting. Don't forget that outside shooting helps the interior game and that, to date, we have not been strong at the interior game. Now, if our guards would hit from the perimeter, then our bigs would have more room and be more effective on the inside. Instead, MM is not shooting as much b/c he is occupied at running the point and JJ and DE are not shooting from the perimeter b/c, well, b/c neither are any good at it. The problem, of course, is that when our two (2) bigs, CE and RL are doing most of our outside shooting and are missing their shots, then we really don't have anyone rebounding. Then, when they are making their perimeter shots, they are certainly scoring much needed points for us, they are creating mismatches and they are adding to/improving our shooting percentages, etc. but they are not helping the interior game - b/c they ARE the interior game!! If only RL would bring his man outside and then either hit the 3 or dump the ball back inside to CE, and vice versa, then the perimeter shooting would serve a dual purpose. We saw that last year but not so much this year. Also, last year, CE and RL drew their men outside but BC remained inside and was quite effective. This year, at times, DE has been good and lately JM has shown some promise on the inside - which frankly gives me much needed hope. At the same time, IMO, RL and CE will simply need to be more effective on the interior if we are going to be a Top 25 team, if we are going to beat a Top 25 team, if we are going to have success in Conference play (especially on the road) and if we are going to be Tourney team.

Sunday, for instance, our interior big was immediately double-teamed when the ball was thrown to him inside. DE and CR each had trouble with the double teams while JM had some good moments. My point, though, is that if a double team is occurring, then someone is wide open. If that wide open person is one of our guards on the perimeter who will not shoot it, then advantage Valpo. If, on the other hand, that guard will shoot it, and makes a good percentage of his shots, then advantage us as we make Valpo for it. For much of the second half, we did have CE play on the perimeter while DE posted his man up on the block. The problem, of course, is that DE was not all that productive and not nearly as productive as BC was for us last year.

Don't get me wrong. I want our Bills to win as much as the next guy but, to date, I just don't see a team that is NCAA Tournament quality. Now, if KM comes back healthy and not only leads the team at point guard but adds much needed scoring, gets the ball inside to open bigs with his dribble penetration skills and allows MM to provide the outside shooting needed to create room for RL and others ; and if JM can become a more consistent interior threat; and if the team defense not only increases its intensity but also provides this intensity for closer to 40 minutes per game rather than 20 minutes per game; and if Crews is able to knock the "rust" off, realizes that calling a timeout are an option and is then reminded that set plays and adjustments are good topics to discuss at timeouts, then we might have a chance at the post-season.

[bk18]

Cody Ellis matches up well in size. I'll be looking for Cody to get Tony Mitchell in foul trouble early with his ability to draw the charge.

Seriously, Cody Ellis has made drawing fouls an art. He has to be near the top of the country in charges taken/ game/

[bk18]

RL sets screens like he has money on the opposing team

He has 17 rebounds all season thus far (2.4 rpg) and 18 personal fouls and 13 TO's.

[kmbilliken]

the real problem in this debate is not manning. the truth is he is still shakey at best and has a lot of learning to do. that said, he looked better than what loe has the entire season. the real problem is loe. it is time for rob loe to have some sort of come to jesus meeting with himself or sit and let manning learn on the job. but folks if that happens, dont expect john manning to be our answer to the inside immediately. he isnt ready and shouldnt be expected to be the man. the more he plays the more his shortcomings will be exposed.

Agreed. If Loe isn't scoring 12 points a game he's a liability. He gives up that much on defense and is about as ineffective at rebounding as a 6'11" guy can be. Weakest hands on the team.

[JMM28]

Agreed. If Loe isn't scoring 12 points a game he's a liability. He gives up that much on defense and is about as ineffective at rebounding as a 6'11" guy can be. Weakest hands on the team.

I agree right now. But Rob Loe is still only a junior. Remember the leap that Conk made in his second half of JR/all of SR years? That is typical of big men. Maybe it will take Loe a little longer, but I expect him to be dominant as a senior.

Anything we get from Manning this year is a huge bonus. I didn't expect to see him log meaningful minutes until his junior year anyways. That is just the typical development of a big man.

[eastsidejoe]

I agree right now. But Rob Loe is still only a junior. Remember the leap that Conk made in his second half of JR/all of SR years? That is typical of big men. Maybe it will take Loe a little longer, but I expect him to be dominant as a senior.

Anything we get from Manning this year is a huge bonus. I didn't expect to see him log meaningful minutes until his junior year anyways. That is just the typical development of a big man.

That sounds great and I hope you are right. I would like to know what kind of offseason program they put Loe on during the summer. It was either a horrible program or the kid doesn't have the desire to make the progress other Billikens have made and that is not only from Junior to Senior year like Conk.

[jbizzle09]

Another classic bizzle post!! Good stuff!!

You do know that 93rd in the nation means that 92 teams were better, right?? And thanks for making my point. We did not shoot the ball good enough last year or this year. And BTW, be careful with stats and percentages after less than 10 games (7 to be exact).

And also, your raw percentages don't take into consideration which positions players are doing the shooting. Don't forget that outside shooting helps the interior game and that, to date, we have not been strong at the interior game. Now, if our guards would hit from the perimeter, then our bigs would have more room and be more effective on the inside. Instead, MM is not shooting as much b/c he is occupied at running the point and JJ and DE are not shooting from the perimeter b/c, well, b/c neither are any good at it. The problem, of course, is that when our two (2) bigs, CE and RL are doing most of our outside shooting and are missing their shots, then we really don't have anyone rebounding. Then, when they are making their perimeter shots, they are certainly scoring much needed points for us, they are creating mismatches and they are adding to/improving our shooting percentages, etc. but they are not helping the interior game - b/c they ARE the interior game!! If only RL would bring his man outside and then either hit the 3 or dump the ball back inside to CE, and vice versa, then the perimeter shooting would serve a dual purpose. We saw that last year but not so much this year. Also, last year, CE and RL drew their men outside but BC remained inside and was quite effective. This year, at times, DE has been good and lately JM has shown some promise on the inside - which frankly gives me much needed hope. At the same time, IMO, RL and CE will simply need to be more effective on the interior if we are going to be a Top 25 team, if we are going to beat a Top 25 team, if we are going to have success in Conference play (especially on the road) and if we are going to be Tourney team.

Sunday, for instance, our interior big was immediately double-teamed when the ball was thrown to him inside. DE and CR each had trouble with the double teams while JM had some good moments. My point, though, is that if a double team is occurring, then someone is wide open. If that wide open person is one of our guards on the perimeter who will not shoot it, then advantage Valpo. If, on the other hand, that guard will shoot it, and makes a good percentage of his shots, then advantage us as we make Valpo for it. For much of the second half, we did have CE play on the perimeter while DE posted his man up on the block. The problem, of course, is that DE was not all that productive and not nearly as productive as BC was for us last year.

Don't get me wrong. I want our Bills to win as much as the next guy but, to date, I just don't see a team that is NCAA Tournament quality. Now, if KM comes back healthy and not only leads the team at point guard but adds much needed scoring, gets the ball inside to open bigs with his dribble penetration skills and allows MM to provide the outside shooting needed to create room for RL and others ; and if JM can become a more consistent interior threat; and if the team defense not only increases its intensity but also provides this intensity for closer to 40 minutes per game rather than 20 minutes per game; and if Crews is able to knock the "rust" off, realizes that calling a timeout are an option and is then reminded that set plays and adjustments are good topics to discuss at timeouts, then we might have a chance at the post-season.

Just a couple of points:

-93rd in the nation isn't bad when there are 344 teams in D-1. While you point out that means there were 92 teams better than SLU at shooting the three, it also means that SLU was better than 251 other D-1 teams (73%). Thus, while they weren't one of the 10 or 20 best three-point shooting teams in the nation, they were in the top 27% of all teams, which would be considered 'good.' This season, thru 7 games, they are 81st in the nation, or in the top 24%, also considered 'good' when compared to the rest of the teams.

-You state that I shouldn't look at the raw percentages or small sample size (7 games) to determine that this team is decent from the outside. However, it also seems like you are completely ignoring those numbers to fit your overall narrative about this team. Shouldn't you wait until they are not shooting the three-pointer well as a team before criticizing them? Considering the team has shot well from behind the arc each of the past 5 games, this recent criticism just doesn't seem to hold water.

-Are you really stating that DE had trouble against Valpo and wasn't all that productive in the 2nd half? Overall, for the game he scored 17 points on 5-6 shooting and 7-7 from the free throw line. In the 2nd half, he was 3-4 from the field and 3-3 at the line for 9 points. Sorry, but that is a productive second half. And, so far in 7 games, Evans has been fantastic offensively. He is averaging 14 ppg, 6.9 rpg, .623 FG%, .816 FT%. He is getting to the line over 5 times a game. His FG% and FT% are terrific. His only downside this season has been his turnovers (2.7 pg.) If he continues at that level, we are talking 1st Team A-10.

-Personally, in my opinion, I just cannot allow myself to find anything to be critical about this team in regards to their performance against Valpo. And the reason is that they had to go out there and play less than 24 hours after their coach, a man who was a huge influence on most of their lives, had passed away. They had heavy hearts and emotions were running high. For them to not only go out there and play, but to beat Valpo by double-digits while shooting 56% and holding them to 32%, is something they should be absolutely praised for. Under normal circumstances, that would be a good, solid performance. Under the circumstances they were under, it was an amazing performance.

[billiken_roy]

I agree right now. But Rob Loe is still only a junior. Remember the leap that Conk made in his second half of JR/all of SR years? That is typical of big men. Maybe it will take Loe a little longer, but I expect him to be dominant as a senior.

Anything we get from Manning this year is a huge bonus. I didn't expect to see him log meaningful minutes until his junior year anyways. That is just the typical development of a big man.

conklin's worth as a junior was far more than loe. conk was rebounding and playing very good defense. plus the intangible of his leadership even as a junior was remarkable. i would love for loe to be the rebounder and defender conklin was as a junior. i wouldnt mind loe being on the floor one bit if he did that. instead he is incredibly soft. he is really a small forward.

[brianstl]

conklin's worth as a junior was far more than loe. conk was rebounding and playing very good defense. plus the intangible of his leadership even as a junior was remarkable. i would love for loe to be the rebounder and defender conklin was as a junior. i wouldnt mind loe being on the floor one bit if he did that. instead he is incredibly soft. he is really a small forward.

That is part of the problem. People are expecting him to be something he isn't and something Majerus didn't recruit him to be. That said, he has to get better on the defensive end.

[waldo027]

Yes if we play in conference like we did against Valpo. What's your thought genius??

I'm just confused as to why you're making all these posts about the Valpo game when you already declared the season over.

My thoughts are that the season hasn't really started yet. Not until Kwamain returns. Then we'll see the true strength of our team.

[kshoe]

I'm just confused as to why you're making all these posts about the Valpo game when you already declared the season over.

My thoughts are that the season hasn't really started yet. Not until Kwamain returns. Then we'll see the true strength of our team.

This is the key to me. Yes, we have not played well to date but if we can hold it together until Kwamain gets back, you have to like our chances.

While KM is not the sole reason for these differences think about the following:

- In 09-10 we go 23-13. Kwamain sat out one game that year with a concussion and we lose by 10 AT HOME to a not that good Missouri St. team.

- in 10-11 we go 12-19 while Kwamian was suspended.

- in 11-12 we go 26-8 as everyone returns and Kwamain is the only meaningful addition.

He's not a perfect player but he's damn good and we miss him tremendously right now. Get through these last few games without him unscathed and we'll be a different team when he returns. Book it.