The Wiz
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40 minutes ago, Minerva N. Owl said:
What's the difference between a wildcat and cougar?
A cougar goes after younger prey. A wildcat is less picky.
- billiken_roy and CenHudDude
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2
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Our last game with Dav a couple of weeks ago was away and I had the game as even...we won by one. Now being on a neutral court we should be able to win by more. Plus they had a tough, tight game against Rich yesterday...another edge. Finally, Dav is a poor 3P defending team yet we only shot 33% last time. If we have a more normal game this time we can beat the spread.
5 step plan to make it to March Madness
Step 1...Win
Step 2 ...Win
Step 3 ...Win
Step 4 ...Win
Step 5...Go to NCAA tourney
Short and simple
Let's look at the Card...
Report Card....
Report Card change....4 up...3 dn...2 unchanged = +1....Offense up and improving ...defense down although still pretty good.....We have Dav beat on offense and defense....we now just have to execute.
UP.....OFF....PPG...FG%...3P%...Rebs...DEF.....none
Dn....OFF...none....DEF.......PPG...FG%...3P%
................SLU...........Dav...................SLU....................Dav
.........................OFF..............................................DEF..........
PPG...........C+...............C-.........................B..............................B-
FG%..........A-................B-..........................A-............................D+
3P%..........B.................C............................B.............................D-
FT%..........D-.................B............................................................
Reb............C+...............D-.........................D...............................C-
OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU...
2P%....Team...........4th.......up
PPG.....Avila............92nd....up
............Jimerson... 65th.....up
Asst....Swope........90th.....up
3PM......Jimerson...13th...dn
..............Swope.......34th...unch
Reb....Anya............71st...dn
Dav...
PPG....Bailey...39th
Injuries
SLU...
Casey & Dotzler...OFTS
Thames...Out Indefinitely....3/2/25...undisclosed
Dav...
None to report
Keys to the game.... Play 2 halves...Last Dav game we didn't play in the 1st half...if we play 2 halves we win easily.
WWN2D2W....Let's try something different here. I am going to plagiarize some of my last post game analysis on Dav. I checked with myself and myself gave permission to do so in the interest of time. Statements in (parenthesis) are current statements.
Mr. Davidson is Bailey. He is 18th ITN in scoring and leads the team in most other categories...beat him and beat Dav. Yes we did. Hold Bailey to 15 pts...Excellent ...we held him to 14. (Bailey is now 39th in PPG...Let's hold him and Kochera to 14pts this time)...
They also have a 3 shooter, Durkin, who we need to keep an eye on. Durkin...limit to two 3PM....Check...he had two 3PM. (Let's do it again)
(keep a lid on the POTs...keep them even...Target slash 48 / 61 / 36 / 73 )
Bottom line...Make 3s to see victories.
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1 hour ago, Lord Elrond said:
Is it true that this is a picture of @The Wiz at his computer? I have my doubts
This can't be me....I never have less than 4 large screens going at once....this guy is a computer midget.
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1 hour ago, Taj79 said:
@WUH: Based on the above, I don't know if I'd say our schedule is better. Their two wins over noted Power 4 teams were at neutral sites likely because of MTE schedules. Included in the one MTE was Miami of Florida and Florida Atlantic, all were wins. Other than those games, they played nobody but the Valley.
What I don't know is how the lower echelon of the Valley compares to the pits of the A10. How does Missouri State and Valpo line up with Fordham and La Salle, for instance. What kind of athleticism exists throughout the Valley? I think Robbie and Schertz would both say the A10 was more athletic than thoguht.
Per KenPom on Conf Rankings...A10...8th...MVC...11th
How the best and worst compare...
Best 4 MVC ...Drake...B+...Brad & No Ia...B...Bmont...B-
Best 4 A10...VCU...A-....GM, Day & St. J...B+
Worst 2 MVC...Mo St...D+...Eville...D
Again A10 is better than MVC
Here is an interesting experiment...I ran simulations on Drake being in the A10 and SLU in the MVC...Here is what it showed....
In the A10 ...Drake finishes at 12-6...3-5th place
In the MVC...SLU finishes at 15-5...2nd or 3rd place.
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16 minutes ago, 2010andBeyond said:
They’d get more credit if the turnaround wasn’t from terrible to slightly better than mediocre.
I think Schertz can pan out long term, but in year one McCollum appears to have been a much better hire.
Of the 3 first year starts in Schertz's career, this will be his best one.
As for long term vs short term...
Crews...short term...A+...Long term....F-....Long term is always more important.
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So who do we want to win?...We might have a little bit bigger edge on Rich but it doesn't matter. We beat both on their home court, Dav by 1 and Rich by 4. So it should be a bit easier on a neutral court.
Regardless of who wins...we just need to take care of business.
- CenHudDude, Old guy, billiken_roy and 2 others
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5
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As predicted in the "last chance" thread we are a 5th seed. As I mentioned in that thread 4th place was a long shot (but we were close with 2 of the 3 games falling our way). Our most probable finish was 5th place. While there is no easy path to the Championship game ...I thought 5th was better than 6th. The reason was our 2nd tourney game as a 5th would be Loy...as a 6th our 2nd game would be Day. Thus 5 is better than 6.
The A10 has been about parity all season. If you take a parity league and put them on a neutral court, the games will be close. The ones that aren't will be because the losing team tires because of the bye system.
This is the most probable path for SLU...
First we start with the Dav/ Rich game , SLU's first opponent. I have Dav winning by 4. SLU should then beat Dav in our 1st game. Next up Loy. We should win that in a close one. On to VCU ...We won't be favored in that one but if we win, we would play Day in the Championship game.....again not being favored. So it is a long shot to make it but if we can play like we did against Duq (minus the TO's) we have a decent chance.
On another note...VCU is the only team that can receive an at large bid. Does this mean they can lose and get the bid. Not quite. They would have to lose in the championship game to have a chance. And then it would depend on how many other "qualified" teams teams are looking for a bid. Since we may be playing VCU in the game before the championship game, what this means is...We may be the only thing that stands between VCU and a bid. A loss to SLU and they are out.
Again, because the games will be close , it should be a good tourney.
The Bills can win if they make 3s ...not TOs.
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20 Gibson Jimerson 415 2020 2025 Saint Louis 21 Stephen Curry 414 2007 2009 Davidson 22 Curtis Staples 413 1995 1998 Virginia In addition to making top 20 all time 3PM, he passes Mr. 3P shooter, Stephen Curry.
Another big jump in the standings ...again passing some notable names.
124 Gibson Jimerson 2391 2020 2025 Saint Louis 125 Dell Curry 2389 1983 1986 Virginia Tech Kellan Grady 2389 2018 2022 Kentucky 127 Johnny Newman 2383 1983 1986 Richmond Henry Williams 2383 1989 1992 Charlotte 129 Ricky Minard 2381 2001 2004 Morehead State 130 Byron Houston 2379 1989 1992 Oklahoma State 131 Ron Harper 2377 1983 1986 Miami (OH) 132 Chasson Randle 2375 2012 2015 Stanford 133 Jim McCoy 2374 1989 1992 Massachusetts 134 Jamal Mashburn 2371 2021 2025 Temple 135 John Williams 2370 1983 1986 Indiana State 136 Bryant Reeves 2367 1992 1995 Oklahoma State 137 Sam Sessoms 2362 2019 2023 Coppin State 138 C.J. McCollum 2361 2010 2013 Lehigh 139 George Dalton 2357 1952 1955 John Carroll 140 Ryan Kalkbrenner 2352 2021 2025 Creighton -
2 hours ago, cheeseman said:
You are forgetting the 3 made as the clock rain out by the Dukies so it would have only been by 4 but close enough
I didn't forget it . But with a 7 point lead and 10 seconds left to play it would be a 3 possession game. Most teams at that point would let the clock run out especially if it is a meaningless game ...ie wouldn't change the standings for them in any way.
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What a great win...Did you know that if Jimerson makes the final 2 FTs in OT with 10 secs left in OT, we win by 7 and make the spread. It's OK... he did everything else right scoring 35 pts in 45min (played the entire game). He had for lack of a better phrase a Gattpow and TOPO night. Speaking of Gattpow , check it out tomorrow for some interesting data and a key breakthrough.
As for the game, we did a lot of things right to the point that it should have been a blowout. Let's see what happened...bolded statements from original post.
Target slash...48/ 60 / 36 / 73...Actual 59/ 72/ 44/ 67...we missed this target by only 1 FT...the rest was a far exceed. This was the key to the win. Make 3s...We did.
Beat them on rebs by 2...We beat them by 4...This was a big help.
POTs even...This was a miss...we had 18 TOs. ...16 is considered an F- ..20 is considered an automatic loss no matter what you shoot. The POTs produced an extra 11 pts for Duq. If we even out the TOs , we win easily by at least 13. Many of the TOs were unforced. Can't do that in the Tourney.
Bottom line...We have a 5th seed and some momentum. In the coming days , I will put out some new spread threads and projections as to who we will be playing ...in the meantime ...bask in the glory of victory. It isn't always easy being a Bills fan ...but sometimes it is sweet.
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Good question MNO...
VCU is the only A10 team capable of getting an at large bid. Another loss would make them iffy. Using the scenario I projected above ...the SLU 5th seed one...VCU would meet SLU in the 2nd to last game ...and would probably be out if they lost to the Bills. If in fact they beat the Bills in that game and lost the final to GM or Day, VCU would still be in the running for an at large bid...It then would depend on how many extra surprise teams get in...ie a team winning the conference tourney who didn't win the conference. If too many of those teams get in , they eat up the extra spaces...spaces the Committee would just as soon give to a Power Conference.
You know the saying ...it is hard being a Bills fan...you can add...it is hard being an A10 member.
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First off, can you believe this? We need 3 underdogs to win. The 2 underdogs (Day & LaS) picked to lose by 10... both win...the 3rd team (Mass) is an even pick to beat Loy and they get bombed by 23 pts. If UMass wins that game we have the double bye.
Which leaves tonight's game....This game still means something...We win and we finish 5th...we lose and we finish 6th.
Since we are picked to win ...let's play the scenario out...we finish 5th. The 4 projected teams we would play in order would be...Dav...Loy...VCU...Mason
We need to win this game tonight. While there is no easy path to the Championship game. I think the 5th seed is better than the 6th. You see what the 5th seed looks like above...Here is what the 6th seed looks like...UMass...Day...Mason...VCU....I would take the 5th seed. I think we have a better chance of reaching the 3rd round as a 5th seed.
And the clock starts over....tick... tick...tick
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The clock is still ticking...
Here are the spreads for the 2 games that affect the Bills...
Loy and UMass....EVEN....chances are good for OT
St. J over LaS by 3
We need Loy and St. J to lose...Both will be close. BUT the toughest one was Day to win as Day was a 10.5 pt underdog playing at VCU. Both UMass and LaS have better chances of winning their games than Day did.
In any case The Bills will have an answer at least 3 hours before game time tomorrow.
Tick...tick...tick
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Dayton a 10 pt underdog beats VCU by 3 to keep the Bills double bye hopes alive...Need losses by Loy and St. J tomorrow to grab the 4th spot....both are away. I am cranking out those spreads as we speak. Stay tuned
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A10 Tourney
See "the last chance to make 4th place" thread. One thing is for sure ...by the time we play this game, we will know whether it matters or not as we are the last game played in the regular A10 season.
Game preview....
Welcome to the worst offense in the A10. We are talking Duq here. We beat them in every major Offensive category...Yes, even our D- in FT shooting swamps there F-. And while their Def isn't bad, there one weakness is 3P defense....so we got this ...right? Well , we should...but with a caution sign flashing. In the last 7 games, Duq has beaten GM, Loy and lost to Day @ Day by 1. So what's the deal?...they don't seem very good on paper. When you can't shoot or score, you try to slow the game down or as @Bay Area Billiken would say ...this is going to be an East Coast Bus League slow, defensive chess match. The lower the score the better chance they have to win. If we have a good night from the arc, then we can win by double digits. But if we struggle from 3, it could be a coin toss.
The Bills remain at B continuing our sideways journey. Duq comes in at B-. We can't lose this game BUT we can give it away.
Let's look at the Card...
Report Card....
Report Card change....0 up...2 dn...7 unchanged = -2
Relatively unchanged except for 1 area ...Rebs...we need to pick it up on the boards
UP.....OFF....none......DEF.....none
Dn....OFF...Rebs....DEF........Rebs
................SLU................Duq.....................SLU.........................Duq
.......................OFF...............................................DEF..........
PPG...........C..................D-.........................B..............................A-
FG%..........B+................D..........................A-............................B-
3P%..........B-.................C...........................B.............................D-
FT%..........D-.................F-..12th WITN........................................
Reb............C.................D+.........................D...............................B
OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU...
2P%....Team...........5th.......dn
PPG.....Avila............99th....dn
............Jimerson... 82nd.....dn
Asst....Swope........95th.....dn
3PM......Jimerson...12th...up
..............Swope.......34th...up
Reb....Anya............55th...dn
Duq....
Blks...Dixon...95th
Injuries
SLU...
Casey & Dotzler...OFTS
Thames...Out Indefinitely....3/2/25...undisclosed
Duq...
Michele...Doubtlful...hasn't played since Nov.. undisclosed
Keys to the game.... Make 3s... a lot will depend on whether this game will matter...ie will it change the standings.
WWN2D2W.....Target slash...48/ 60 / 36 / 73... Beat them on rebs by 2.....POTs even...Magic number is 70 ..we need to score at least 70 and hold them to less than 70...
Bottom line...Let's Duke it out with them and take the win.
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GJ moves up 3 more spots and is only three 3PM from Stephen Curry
20 Stephen Curry 414 2007 2009 Davidson 21 Curtis Staples 413 1995 1998 Virginia 22 Gibson Jimerson 411 2020 2025 Saint Louis Jack Leasure 411 2005 2008 Coastal Carolina 24 Keith Veney 409 1993 1997 Marshall Another nice jump of 18 spots on Total Points...passing a number of notable players including recent grad Marcus Carr.
139 Gibson Jimerson 2356 2020 2025 Saint Louis 140 Nate Wolters 2352 2010 2013 South Dakota State 141 Travis Bader 2351 2011 2014 Oakland 142 Marcus Carr 2350 2018 2023 Texas Bo Kimble 2350 1986 1990 Loyola Marymount Antonio Reeves 2350 2020 2024 Kentucky Isaiah Stevens 2350 2020 2024 Colorado State 146 Craig Smith 2349 2003 2006 Boston College 147 Armando Bacot 2348 2020 2024 North Carolina Alec Peters 2348 2014 2017 Valparaiso 149 Dana Barros 2342 1986 1989 Boston College Shawn Long 2342 2013 2016 Louisiana 151 J.J. Anderson 2341 1979 1982 Bradley Anthony Roberts 2341 1974 1977 Oral Roberts 153 Randy Culpepper 2338 2008 2011 UTEP 154 Dave Jamerson 2336 1986 1990 Ohio Todd Lichti 2336 1986 1989 Stanford 156 Lawrence Moten 2334 1992 1995 Syracuse Robert Parish 2334 1973 1976 Centenary (LA) -
OK...This thread was about the best case scenario for The Bills....
Now let's look at what is most probable....
We will have to make a few assumptions but they will be most probable assumptions. ..a lot of variables but this came up as the most likely scenario...
First the assumptions for the final game of the season......VCU beats Day.....Loy beats UMass...RI beats Fham... and St. J beats LaS.
This all sets up the best case for The Bills being a 6th seed....Day and VCU on the other side of the bracket...ie you only have to face one of them and not until the last game...
From there we enter the A-10 tourney...
In the 1st round ...UMass beats LaS
In the 2nd round SLU beat UMass
In the 3rd round we face Loy...if we beat Loy (play like we did against them the last game) we move onto ....
The 4th round to face GM....if we beat them...
The Championship game....SLU vs VCU
And that's how it all works.
- CenHudDude and billiken_roy
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2
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First, let me say that the computer shows us finishing 6th place in the A10...win or lose against Duq. assuming VCU , St. J and Loy win
BUT...
When I asked the computer is there a scenario where The Bills could still finish 4th...the answer was yes. It is not probable but possible. What has to happen is the following...
Day has to beat VCU....I am showing VCU winning the game BUT Day is capable of beating them.
Next Loy and St. J need to lose....again both are picked to win BUT both teams are playing away...so the computer is showing both games being very close.
It is a long shot BUT stranger things have happen.
BTW, the reason the last chance for The Bills exists is that a Day win messes up the tie breakers. Day finishes 3rd with its win and 4th place becomes a 3 way instead of a 4 way tie. Once Day is out of the mix, it removes the 2 SLU losses against Day which puts us even with St J and Loy... the tie breaker then becomes our win over VCU.
- The Valley Sucks, Adman, Compton and 1 other
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4
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2 hours ago, Lando Griffin said:
Lord. If that happens, SLU should look for the exit. Quickly.
Are you saying that High Point would be a Low Point?
- NextYearBill, TheA_Bomb, VeniceMenace and 3 others
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5
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1
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A tough loss by again 8 pts.
Bolded statements from original post...
Match them on POTs...This was the good news of the game...I mentioned in the above post we need to fix the TOs ...we did...we went from 19 in the 1st game to 9 in this one...which is excellent ....POTs was 18 SLU to 2 Day ...a great stat but unfortunately we had other breakdowns this time...
Limit Santos and Bennett to four 3PM...This too turned out well ...last time they knocked us off with seven 3s...this time 2 combined. So far so good in the game review....
play energized for 40 min... 1st half good...2nd half bad...This combo won't work against a good team.
Hold Day to 70 pts....This was a miss...Why ? See the next stat...
Beat them on rebs.... We were bombed as they out rebounded us by 15...Last game with Day...Rebs good...TOs bad....This game TOs good ...Rebs bad....both times we lose by 8.
Target slash...48/ 61 / 36 / 73...There was a problem here. For those that follow me, you will note there is something different here. I almost always list a 3 part slash...on this one, I added the 2P%...I had a feeling there might be an issue here. (the computer says ..what is this feeling stuff? ...don't understand...doesn't compute). I don't usually list this because it is one of our most consistent stats ...usually around 60%...keeping us in the top 5 ITN...But not tonight...46.7%... in order to make the 61%, we needed 5 more 2s. Had we had an average 2P night with 5 more 2s, even with the above items not right we could have still won by 2 pts.
Looks like we will have to root for Dav and RI to win on Wed night.
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First off, I had the pleasure of seating next to Davell Roby at the Loy game. He was back for the players Alumni reunion festivities. He said he was ready to be the 6th man if we needed help. Fortunately, that wasn't necessary because we lead by a comfy margin most of the game. And what a game it was ...we didn't just win ...we whomped them. And that is what happens when everything falls into place.
Overall, we are still at B. But things are starting to happen. The way things work is first the trend line starts to turn up. That happened right after the GM game. Then the baseline starts to move. It moves till it reaches our previous high which was happened after the Dav game (equaling the 1st St. J game high point) . The Loy game puts us in new territory. Finally , our grade will move up...if win the Day game. So this game is pivotal not only for the top 4 finish but also to see if we have what it takes (B+ ) to play post season. Let's check the Top 4 race.
Top 4...
I will keep this simple by just copying the key line from my previous spread thread.
Take it 1 game at a time... Beat Loy and eliminate them....Beat Day and eliminate them ...and beat Duq and become a Top 4.......Step 1 complete ...2 to go.
Game preview....
Like the 1st Loy game, we should have beaten Day in the 1st game but played poorly...yet we only lost by 8. In the Loy game there were a number of factors that went bad that cost us the game. In the Day game, we played good enough to win except for 1 factor....TURNOVERS...TOs are always a factor in games ...sometimes more ...sometimes less. In the Day game, it was not only more but was THE reason we lost. We had 19 TOs...you can't win games when you TO the ball that much...16 TOs is considered an F. We lost the Day game by 8. We lost the POTs by 16 pts....In other words had we matched them in TOs the spread would still have been 8 but we would have been the winners. The good news is that in recent games we seem to be protecting the ball better and making less mistakes....PROTECT THE BALL and win the game.
The offenses are close to being equal ...we have the edge on defense. The computer thinks we are the better team but is leaning toward Day because of home field advantage. We are trending up... they are drifting sideways. We have the momentum. We just need to use it.
Let's look at the Card...As you would expect, it is looking up...
Report Card....
Report Card change....4 up...0 dn...5 unchanged = +4
UP.....OFF....PPG...3P%(up 2 notches)...FT%......DEF.....Rebs
Dn....OFF...none....DEF........None
................SLU................Day.....................SLU.........................Day
.......................OFF...............................................DEF..........
PPG...........C..................C+.........................B..............................B-
FG%..........B+.................B-.........................A-............................C
3P%..........B-..................B...........................B.............................B-
FT%..........D-.................B........................................................
Reb............C+................D...........................D+............................B
OFF Rebs = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb
Top 100 In The Nation
SLU...
2P%....Team.........4th.......unch ..we are less than 1% away from #1 ITN
PPG.....Avila............80th....up
............Jimerson... 81st......up
Asst....Swope........85th.....dn
3PM......Jimerson...23rd...up
..............Swope.......41st...dn
Reb....Anya............49th...dn
Day....
Asst...Smith...38th
Stls....Cheeks....70th
Injuries
SLU...
Casey & Dotzler...OFTS
Thames...Out Indefinitely....3/2/25...undisclosed
Day...
None reported
Keys to the game.... Protect the ball and no unforced errors......play energized for 40 min....do these things like you have for the last 2 games....they say 3 times is a trend.
WWN2D2W.....Target slash...48/ 61 / 36 / 73... Beat them on rebs...Match them on POTs....Limit Santos and Bennett to four 3PM....Hold Day to 70 pts
Bottom line...If we FLY high over Day, we can land in the Top 4.
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With at least 3 games left to play, GJ is only ten 3PM away from catching Steph Curry....
24 Gibson Jimerson 404 2020 2025 Saint Louis Andrew Rowsey 404 2014 2018 Marquette 26 Joseph Girard 402 2020 2024 Clemson 27 Doug Day 401 1990 1993 Radford 28 Gerry McNamara 400 2003 2006 Syracuse Reyne Smith 400 2022 2025 Louisville 30 Francis Alonso 396 2016 2019 UNC Greensboro Andrew Goudelock 396 2008 2011 College of Charleston GJ has made quite a move here in the Total Points column...moving up over 50 spots in 1 game... catching and passing such notables as Rick Barry, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Drew Timme, Jerry West, David Thompson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Darrell Griffith not to mention Sleepy Floyd.
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A great game...from a numbers point of view, this was The Bills best game of the season....Let's take a quick look at what happened and then you can bask.
Bolded statements from the original post of this thread...
Target slash...48/ 36 / 73...This the biggest reason we not only won but won by a lot. We crushed it...58/53/ 86...Led by a record breaking performance by Jimerson... nine 3PM ...which in turn led to a team record eighteen 3PM. Jimerson finished with 33pts and a slash of 53/53/ 100...he only shot 3s...FT 6-6....nice night. Also having a big night was Avila...67/100/ 87....6-9/ 3-3/ 13-15...total 28pts...great job. Btw, we even exceeded our team 2P% where we are 4th ITN with 60%...we had 71% and are now only 0.9%from being the top shooting 2P team ITN.
Hold Edwards and Dawson to 25 Pts...We did...they killed us in that last game with 43 pts...tonight 17pts.
Keep Rubin under 50 FG%...2 blks and 5 rebs...we didn't sweep here but we did win the battle by taking 2 of 3....He shot 87% from the 2 ft line (which is why he was 16th ITN going into the game ...now ranked at 5th)...BUT we did hold him on his other 2 strong areas...Blks and rebs....1 and 3...which was good enough.
Match them on rebs...we beat them by 7...we have been winning the Reb battles as of late and this is helping with our turnaround.
beat them on the POTs...We did... by 1...both teams had 9 TOs...which are good totals especially for us....the TOs also have been dropping lately. In the last game with Loy, we lost the TO by 5 and the POT by 8pts. Big difference between the 2 games.
Take it 1 game at a time... beat Loy and eliminate them....Beat Day and eliminate them ...and beat Duq and become a Top 4...Step 1 complete ...2 to go.
- CenHudDude, Aquinas and billikenbill
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3
The Bills over Dav by 3
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
TOs are Dav equalizer...last game we had a decent 11 TOs but because they had fewer TOs they still picked up 4 pts on us...we need to do 11 or less TOs again.