The Wiz
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Posts posted by The Wiz
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Here is a pod cast that is worth a listen. This guy is the U of L announcer, sports caster for channel 12 in Lville and recruiting analyst. More importantly, he has his finger on the pulse of the AD, boosters and fan base of UL. In this podcast he talks about the 3 candidates under consideration...Schertz, Kelsey and Holloway. He gives a 3rd party view of pro's and con's on each coach. At one point , he says he thinks Schertz would be a good fit for SLU...better than U of L. Also interesting to hear his take on the other 2 coaches.
This is a must listen if you are interested in the SLU coach search (and if you're not why would you be on this thread) and you are concerned that UL is about swoop and grab our next coach. Of course, nothing is done until it's done but remember this....nothing happens till ISU loses.....tick...tick...tick
MusicCityBilliken likes this -
50 minutes ago, brianstl said:
Since Holloway / Seton Hall seems to be another piece of the puzzle...I have SH over UNLV by 6 .
Nothing happens till ISU loses...
Tick...tick ...tick
MusicCityBilliken likes this -
The clock is ticking...
We are coming down to the wire ...in more ways than one.
I am sure many on this board are not happy with the headline. If you think the Schertz deal is done, you are ok with an ISU win ...if not, you are a Bearcat fan.
This is a meeting of 2 A- teams both who were wrongfully shunned by the NCAA and both who were trying to make a point. That point is ...The NCAA should have listened to their own computer.. Btw...as you may know the NCAA turns off its computer on Selection Sunday. But mine keeps going and mine shows that if today were Selection Sunday ISU would have a 57% chance to Dance. Of course that is based on a combo of NET and Selection committee. In order to overcome the humans (assuming you are not P5) you need about 70% to Dance. If you are P5, you are good to go at 50% +.
Game Preview...This will be ISU toughest challenge so far in the NIT. If the computer is right, we are looking at Apr 2 or 4 as a decision day which is what the program has been showing from the beginning. As mentioned above these are 2 evenly matched teams at A-... The computer warns there is a flashing red light on Cinn... they are missing 3 players all seriously injured in the last few games ...no questionable...out for season. These players average a combined 70 min /gm. Cincy is hurting both in production and depth. Computer says if ISU can have an average game... it could turn into a blowout.
Bottom line....Rule #1...Nothing happens till ISU loses...Rule #2...In case of speculation, always follow Rule #1
Tick...tick...tick
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18 minutes ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said:
They doubled the spread on this one.
Yes, they looked good against a big physical team....
Some quick important stats...TOs.. Ind St 10... Mn 15 ...And then we look at the next 2 stats FG% and Reb ...ISU won both ...usually indicates a sure win. (80% of the time)... TOs alone were worth 11 pts on a projection
Next up Cinn...the toughest NIT opp so far BUT the computer has ISU winning ...stay tuned for tomorrow's numbers.
The long and winding road to the new coach continues.
Rule #1....Nothing happens till ISU loses
Rule #2....When basketball speculating ...always check Rule #1
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2 hours ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said:
The band has been told via email the AD expects to make an announcement regarding the new men's basketball coach between Tuesday and Thursday of this week upcoming. Take that for what it is.
If you read my earlier spread thread post, I show ISU winning today's game by 6. If they win, they will play Cinn. ISU would be favored in that game too. But the cumulative probability of winning both games is only 42%. So a 58% chance of mid week announcement.
No one from the athletic department called me, so here is how it probably went down.
Hey, ISU has 2 games this week. What happens if they lose one of those games. We better give the band a couple of days notice to make sure someone shows up. If ISU loses today, let's make it for Tues or Wed. If they lose on Tues or Wed , we can make it on Wed or Thur.
What happens if ISU wins both games? Then tell the band we were just kidding ...and to be ready for Wed through Fri of next week ...for sure.
GoSluBills, CenHudDude, BrettJollyComedyHour and 2 others like this -
Post season rules for SLU followers.....
Rule #1....Nothing happens till ISU loses
Rule #2....What about alternative plans and speculation...always follow Rule #1
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A nice win for ISU.
Next up is Minn at 1PM on Sun (ESPN2)...A tad better than SMU but a game ISU should win.
The team most likely to win overall is Wake Forest....In fact the computer is showing a matchup with Wake and ISU. But because they are on the other side of the bracket that wouldn't happen till April 4 in the Championship game....not something that most Bills fans want to hear.
Well at least the TV coverage will be better so that Bills fans can watch...Bills 2 or Bills too or Bills East or just plain BS ( Bills -Sycamores)
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19 minutes ago, Old guy said:
The computer cannot predict the future, what it can do and actually does is to extrapolate stats from this season into the next season. However, it cannot accounts for factors like injuries, loss of players to the portal, or new players coming into a team from the portal. In other words, it cannot account for changes that have not happened yet but that will have an impact upon next season.
I will have to partially disagree with you on this. Have you ever seen a maiden horse race...10 horses that have never raced before yet there is a favorite and an finishing order for each horse even though there is no public data. Again, there can be surprises but there can be surprises even with data. There are algorithms for everything ....see my preseason forecast when there isn't any real data but the computer uses a Bayesian model to forecast what is going to happen. In the A-10 this year, it was pretty spot on when it said that 9 teams would be bunched together at the top and pretty much had that correct. While 1 game here or there might change the order...at the end of the season their was a huge gap between the haves and the have nots (9th and 10th place in the A-10) . The computer knew that at the 8th game of the season the BIlls were doomed for the season. You could say everybody knew that after a 40 point drubbing by SIU. But the computer made that forecast in early Nov before any games had been played.
Even in the game last night with all the uncertainty , the computer had a forecast that said ISU would win by 6-8pts ...I consider a win by ISU by 1-3 over the spread a pretty good forecast. While SMU and ISU have never played , the computer looked at each game that each team had played this season and then connected the data dots of the other 360 teams to the current teams through a series of simulations. There is even a "luck" factor...when things seem "even" a team always seems to win (or lose).
The computer thinks that The Bills luck is about to change .
Soderball likes this -
Just a quick review before we get to the main stuff....
TO s were equal at 10...which mean we move on to the next 2 categories...FG%...ISU won that 55% to 48%....and rebs ...36-31 won that too...which gives you an 80% chance to win ..in this case 100%....Interestingly ISU trailed most of the game in score and TOs...but once the TOs turned around the score did too. Some things never change.
The important take away in this game was the uncertainty going in....Coach and players in a no man's land...a lot of distracting turmoil,...who will be where next year, .... what about the fans especially since it is a home game...portal questions...As a result there was a great deal of uncertainty...this could easily have been a loss. Add the fact that they were down through the 1st 3 quarters ...this outcome bodes well for the Coach, the players and The Bills. CJS was able to rally the troops...change things up at half time......get the team back on track...speaks volumes about the Coach and the players....a sign of a winning attitude.
As far as the computer is concerned, it was looking for ISU to win by 6-8 pts and they pretty much came in on target. It answered the computer's main question...can the team handle the non basketball distractions. The answer was yes and as a result the machine feels more confident about future NIT predictions regarding ISU.
While the team could have easily called it a season and moved on to the next phase, they finished the job at hand....again this bodes well for The Bills. While I am anxious for the team to start doing Billiken things, it was fun to watch and see what a team that knows how to win looks like. The computer also thinks there is a good chance we may have to wait till April to get a final answer.
Buckle up and enjoy the ride...
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Here is an update....
ISU over SMU by 6
A lot has happened in a couple of days....a lot of distractions...not always quantifiable . In addition to the distraction, there is the question if home field will be affected. SMU however is one of the weakest teams in the NIT. In the end, ISU is the better team and should still win this game.
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38 minutes ago, Scoop said:
What was Cian's assist to turnover ratio? It couldn't have been good.
1.86....
Usually 2.6 or higher is great
2 is good
The top 5 assist people this year range from about 2.5 to 2.75
Yuri came in at 2.23.
This is not one of my favorite stats...You could be a great passer generating lots of assists and you could be bad at holding onto the ball which has nothing to do with passing.
Bottom line ...He was doing better all around and had potential to be something in the coming years. He may have left because he feared the new coach would bring in new guards. Again, as I pointed out in an earlier post, it usually makes sense to meet the new guy and see what the situation is before you give up your roster spot and scholarship.
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3 hours ago, David King said:
Right, guys that average 16 pts/20 min, hit 42.6% from 3pt, and score 30+ pts three games in a row are a dime a dozen.
LOL!
I agree on the LOL....If you can shoot 42.6% you come in at #101 out of 5522 D1 players. More like a million dollars a dozen.
TheChosenOne likes this -
34 minutes ago, Aquinas said:
The other stats area that seemed to kill us was turnovers. Wiz can you say where we ranked in turnovers?
Ah...you have been reading my stuff....
Yes this was the season killer....Regular TOs weren't bad...#170....C ...But it was the opponent TOs that was the crusher...330...F ....It was the TO differential ...the one stat that could trigger a loss. When we lost the TO battle there was about an 80% chance we would lose the game. We did OK protecting the ball but we weren't very good at forcing TOs.
It all ties together...we were great at shooting 3s ...but not protecting against them...We protected the ball ok but didn't force TOs enough....Opp rebs not good....It was like we were going through the motions but were a step late. When we didn't have the ball we were not very good.
This season would have been very upsetting to Majerus.
With an average defense we would have been good.
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2 hours ago, Lord Elrond said:
We were only 312 in 3pt % defense? It sure seems we were worse than that…
I certainly don't want to question @Cowboy II 's numbers but I am showing Pomeroy at 329 on 3P% defense. Perhaps his number of 312 was from earlier in the season. But even if the times are in sync data sources can differ...KenPom uses STATS Perform for his database...generally pretty good but their are glitches from time to time... sometimes their are rounding differences... sometimes mistakes. One small mistake not corrected can feed into the data all season. I use Sports Direct as one of my sources( the word source is plural ...that is how you can sometimes spot errors by cross checking)...they have live data...ie the data is updated as soon as a game is completed and they have been pretty accurate over the years. And of course, there is the NCAA which is one of the most widely used sources because...well because they are the NCAA and they say so. Unfortunately, their data base uses 351 teams...there are currently 362 teams. There were 351 teams as recently as 2017-18 and they haven't bothered to update their data program since. And why should they ...things seem to be working well...there haven't been many changes to college basketball since then and if things get askew we can always "fix" things. You gotta love the NCAA...no matter what you say about them at least they are consistent.....in their inconsistency.
To get back to the original question which was Bills 3P% defense...I have the Bills finishing their season at #337 ...they had been as low as 351. That was when they recorded an F-. That 337 isn't final but there are no 338+ teams playing now and the Bills 3P%D is not going to get worse.
Hopefully, are days of 300+ offense or defense are over .
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4 minutes ago, TheA_Bomb said:
Yeah the psychological aspect of being in the NIT makes it tough to handicap.
Can Schertz keep the team focused? If he built the team right they're competitors and when the ball goes up they turn it on. Plus now there's an added incentive show out in games and get paid.
Very interesting. I want the coach at SLU but I want a winner here. So win 2 games then pack up the uhaul.
To your point...Player thinking ...do well and I can go with Coach
Lord Elrond likes this -
I never thought I would be doing spread threads on the NIT particularly if the Bills weren't in it. But in light of the fact that these games do affect the Bills Nation ...here we go. These will not be full analytical threads like the regular Bills threads...just something so you can keep your finger on the pulse (or take your own pulse).
Unfortunately, the computer doesn't think this will be over quickly. In a series of simulations, the program showed that ISU will go at least till Mar 26-27 and probably till the first week in April. Not the news most Bills fans want to hear. But that's what happens when you are placed in the wrong tournament...When you wind up in a lower Tourney , chances are you are going to do pretty well. The only early off ramp is a game on Mar 26-27 when they face a tough Cinn team. Cincy is another snubbed team (37 NET...64% C2D). The computer gives that game to ISU because of the home field advantage...but thinks the game will be close. Going forward to Apr 2 ..Nova has a chance to knock off ISU but again a close game with ISU now showing a 1 pt advantage. And then there is the final game...right now the computer gives Wake Forest the championship as it feels that Wake is the best team in the NIT and consequently the most snubbed.
In this game, ISU comes in as a B+ team...SMU as a B. Overall ranking for SMU would probably be similar to VCU (another participant ...but only a small chance they would meet). As you can see by the spread, the computer expects that ISU will be able to handle SMU. But this is the NIT and different teams handle this tourney in different ways that will not show up in the data. Some teams will want to prove themselves...show the NCAA that they were misplaced. For other teams, the players are thinking about the NIL, the portal or where or who they will be playing for next season.
Word is that the Bills have some sort of deal...but the deal isn't done until it is done AND the longer this drags out the more chance there is that something could go wrong,
Bottom line....
The waiting can be painful
Sometimes it hurts
End the NIT quickly
And get onboard with Schertz
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58 minutes ago, GOSLU68 said:
There is an I in sincere but not team
Wait...are you saying he was "in sincere"?
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Everything on my side went pretty much as expected...The only mini surprise was not that the Committee picked an extra A-10 team (after all there were 6 extra openings with the shun)...but who they picked ...St. J. The mini snub was UMass. I usually only list the teams that have a good chance of getting in (at least 50%) but with exit of 6 teams there was a need to drop into the 40s. Pre selection I had UMass at 45%...also St. B and St. J at 40%. After the exodus...UMass moved to 50% and St. B and St. J. came in at 46%. Again you could make the argument that UMass finished at 11-7 and that the Bonnies tied St. J at 9-9. Of course, if you have been reading my stuff, you understand at this point it is not about data or numbers ...it is about the Committee....or as the computer would say ...Humans...$%^*)(*&!!!
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1 hour ago, Lord Elrond said:
A10 only got 2 because Dayton stumbled in the tourney. If Dayton won the A10 tourney, it would have been a one bid league. If Duq was the team that shoved ISU out, as potentially pointed out by @The Wiz’s computer, then could Dayton winning the A10 tournament have gotten ISU in?
The real truth for both leagues is that Dayton was the only team in both leagues good enough to lose their conference tournament and still make it in. That was the margin of difference between the MVC and the A10. Not a very large difference.
Possibly...it would have eliminated 1 bid stealer and possibly changed the other NET numbers just enough for ISU to get in..
And now the official NCAA statement as to what happened.... in the previous 3 years there have been 2 bid stealers (0.67/yr) ...this year alone there have been 5 ...NCAA translation...just a freak happening.... Plus ISU played a weak OOC schedule...NCAA translation...not our fault, ISU should have scheduled better.
Bottom line ...You have a computer system (NET) that is figuring everything in and comes up with an overall rating for ISU of #29 out of 362 teams....yet somehow a miracle happens and #54 UVA gets in...Question....When you look at NET results which is more important ...SOS or the overall rating which takes in SOS plus all the other data and then compares ISU to UVA plus 360 other teams ...the answer seems clear until the humans arrive then the other factors start to plug in...P5 vs mid major....ACC vs MVC...UVA vs ISU.
Hello Mid major...I am from the NCAA and I am here to help you....the computer says run.
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Some interesting observations by the computer...
It thought that Day would be punished for an early exit in the A-10 tourney...didn't happen...it got the 7th seed like the computer had originally projected...Computer says you can't trust humans.
As @HoosierPalmentioned above ISU becomes the highest NET team to not make it. Speaking of ISU a few days ago in the Coach search discussion thread , there was a question about whether an ISU coach would be able to make it in the A10. So I ran some simulations which showed ISU would have finished 2nd this year in the A10.... Now that the bracket info has been fed in , the computer shows that the data reason that ISU didn't make it was there were some unexpected teams that did. The computer speculates that the Duq bid was one of those . Finishing out the simulation from above... had ISU been in the A10 they would have won the tourney( beating Duq by 3) and been the auto bid for the Atlantic 10.....Day and ISU would have both been Dancing....Can we use this info in coach recruiting? That was the data side...the human side shows that ISU was snubbed...or as the NCAA would say ....we are here to correct NET oversights ...we "fix" things and make them right.....the computer response to "fixing" things... *^#(*^%)(@#^^?% !!!!
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31 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:
So does the A10 get no teams, one team, two teams, or three teams in the NIT? Richmond, or VCU, or Loyola???? Your odds from above are fairly tight.
NIT
VCU....74%
Rich....66%
Loy....62%
NIT bid chances
1 team...62-74%
2 teams ..41-49%
3 teams ...30%
0 teams...15%
HoosierPal likes this -
2 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:
I am anticipating the Sycamores getting screwed by the NCAA committee, but getting in the NIT. Will they get a home game? The Chosen 12 all get home games, so that leaves only 4 others to get to host.
Depends on who the other 3 teams are....follow the money
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15 minutes ago, Crewsorlose said:
ISU is below 20% chance of making it. Too many bid thieves, especially yesterday. Dayton 100% in the tourney. I doubt the A-10 gets 2 NCAA teams and 4 NIT teams.
The NIT percentages listed above are for each team separately ...the chances of those 4 all getting in are only about 16%.
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1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:
As you know the NCAA screwed up the NIT selection. Each 6 gets 2 auto bids....yeah look for that exciting Syracuse v Providence game. The First Four Out as designated by the NCAA Committee also make it, but likely they are in the 12 auto bids. So really there are only max 20 At Large bids which will include other teams from the P6. Indiana State should be in there, but for me all bets are off. There is this "based on the NIT Selection Committee's evaluation" clause in the process, which allows them to do anything they want.
I think the computer's thinking is that if ISU don't get an at large bid they will be in the first 4 out and get an NIT auto bid.
Schertz
in Billikens.com Main Board
Posted
How about this for an idea....Pooled money
Give a coach a chunk of money...say $4 million and tell him $1 million is yours...the other cash is for you to spend on NIL...anything left over is yours...IF you make the Big Dance. If you don't, then the money comes back to whoever paid it...boosters, school etc.
You can fiddle with the numbers and make them come out however you like but the answer is to let the Coach decide on his salary and how much he pays the players. A couple of losing seasons and it means he made some poor decisions and not just coaching decisions but money management ones and would probably be gone.
I think this is where things are headed in the future.