Where will we end up ranked next year roughly

[kshoe]

1 hour ago, DoctorB said:

I scanned through this thread, and yes it's early, and so I will only say this:  if we end this next season only at #80 I will be fairly disappointed if not alarmed.  Maybe I am missing something here but this assemblage of talent bodes well for AT LEAST top 50...

I'm with Doc and skip. It's obviously very much unknown but there's really no formula for how you handle a team where potentially 7 of the top 8 players weren't in the team last year. It makes no sense to compare it to last season's team. It's all about whether the transfers and freshmen are as good as we hope and really the sky is the limit. I'm expecting top 60 or better.

[3star_recruit]

If we are as bad a free throw shooting team as I'm expecting, that alone would keep us out of the top 50.  It's rare for a top 50 team shoot under 65% from the free throw line.

[wgstl]

Im gonna put us in the B+ range, and on the high (or I guess low) side of that.

 

This team has way too many upgrades for a team to sit around 100.  Even if your new recruits take a while to adapt, as some on here think will/may happen, I like how we have players such as johnson, welmer, and bishop who can fill the void.  Butler losing their coach will also help with that ranking, going in there and stealing a win wont be easy, but it'll be easier now.  

[RiseAndGrind]

Top 25. 

 

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

If we are as bad a free throw shooting team as I'm expecting, that alone would keep us out of the top 50.  It's rare for a top 50 team shoot under 65% from the free throw line.

Good point on FT.  But last year we hit 66% and the year before 70%.  The team's 30 year best was 72.7% in 1992-93.  Worst was 61.9% in 09-10 when we went to the CBI.

Career FT shooters below 65%:

Bess 53%, Foreman 53%, Goodwin 55% (HS), Graves 60% (3 of 5), and Welmer 63%.  I can't find French HS stats but a couple of single game box scores suggest FT is an area where French has an opportunity for improvement.

Career FT above 65%,

Bishop 85%, AD 73%, Hines 68%, Johnson 73%, and Roby 70%.  Anthony has a career 71% on 12 of 17. 

With creative lineups, particularly at appropriate times, there is no reason this team can't hit near 70%. 

 

[The Wiz]

Point of information

Ft %  grades  for 2017 

A= 75.4

B= 72.3

C=69.9

D=67.6

F = 64.4

Bills finish at 66.3 = D-...

[3star_recruit]

So other than Roby, all the slashers who get to the line shoot under 60%.  The guys who shoot over 70% get to the line less than 3 times a game.  Not a recipe for hitting anywhere near 70%.

[bauman]

12 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Falling outside the curve is like rolling an 11 with a pair of dice. You are correct in that if we just talk about the upside (2.5%) ...B+ or better...  than we will actually need to roll a 12.

I am basically an optimist ..I go into every season thinking the Bills will do well....How else can you be a long time season ticket holder....The numbers side of the equation has always kept me grounded...usually on the down side...but during the Majerus years I actually swept to the upside when I saw an early trend  that showed we were going to be an A team and probably go Dancing while many were still predicting doom and gloom...the famous MB73 confrontations.

Over the years the board has always been overly optimistic which has led to some letdowns...and thus coining the phrase...it isn't easy being a Bills fan.

I do believe if anyone can lead us to outlier land...it would be Ford. It just won't be easy ...even if a lot of things go right.....Everything has to go right.   I will tell you this , I watched a number of practices last year and got a chance to see the transfers...the worst transfer was better than anyone we had playing last year...we have a significant upgrade in talent. And no matter how things go we will be a much better team this year.  .We may not win every game this year but we will be able to compete in every game.

I think last year Ford did more with less...This year he will be able to do more with more.

Want to know what is really going to happen?

See me at game 8.

Go Bills

 

" the worst transfer was better than ANYONE WE HAD PLAYING LAST YEAR."

These might be the most important words written on this Board in a long time and also the reason that comparing this year's team to last year's is meaningless. If Wiz saw enough of last year's practices to make this statement, and if he is correct, that means that we have 4 players (Foreman, AD, Bess and Graves) who are better than Roby and/or Johnson.  Add in the two top 100 Freshmen as likely meeting that same criteria, and we have 6 players better than Roby/Johnson.  Again, if he is correct in that assessment then making comparisons between last year and this year is like comparing apples and oranges.  I think all the math/SD discussion does not apply to the 2017-18 team.

As I stated in another post, I don't follow the other A-10 teams as closely as some of you, but if you are correct as far as some of them taking a step backwards this year, then I really believe that a top 3 conference finish is possible as is a Conference tournament championship.  How can a team that finished roughly in the middle of the A-10 standings last year and which added 6 players better than any they had last year not, at least likely, meet the above stated standards, both of which would result in a NCAA bid.

Call me crazy, but..................

[bauman]

5 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

So other than Roby, all the slashers who get to the line shoot under 60%.  The guys who shoot over 70% get to the line less than 3 times a game.  Not a recipe for hitting anywhere near 70%.

How about some of them working on this aspect of their game and improving?  I imagine Ford and staff are aware of this weakness and are spending some time on improving it. 

A serious suggestion--------TF's son plays for the all-time leading FT shooter in NCAA history (I believe that is correct or, if not, pretty close to correct)  Have the player Brad didn't think was good enough to play at SLU work with some of our current players and I suspect our numbers would show a somewhat significant improvement.

[kshoe]

This focus on fts seems a little odd to me. An average team shoots about 20 a game so a 5% difference (65% vs 70%) equates to 1 point per game. Sure 1 point per game could be a big deal but I'm not sure it's as big an issue as some would make it.

[Band Legend]

We should be a steadily improving team that wins the conference tournament, rendering our rankings and free throw percentage meaningless.

[teamarete]

1 hour ago, bauman said:

 

1 hour ago, bauman said:

A serious suggestion--------TF's son plays for the all-time leading FT shooter in NCAA history (I believe that is correct or, if not, pretty close to correct)  Have the player Brad didn't think was good enough to play at SLU work with some of our current players and I suspect our numbers would show a somewhat significant improvement.

I was hoping that blake ahearn was joining the staff 2 yrs ago.

[HoosierPal]

2 hours ago, bauman said:

A serious suggestion--------TF's son plays for the all-time leading FT shooter in NCAA history (I believe that is correct or, if not, pretty close to correct)

It's a good suggestion, but Travis Ford had a career FT average at KY of 88%, hitting 91% (103 of 113) his senior year.  If he can't teach the team how to shoot FT, no one will be able to.

[bauman]

Just now, HoosierPal said:

It's a good suggestion, but Travis Ford had a career FT average at KY of 88%, hitting 91% (103 of 113) his senior year.  If he can't teach the team how to shoot FT, no one will be able to.

good point-I was not aware of his stats.

[TFord and TRavs]

It's silly to look at previous season stats when those who played will be on the back end of playing time this upcoming season. Also I got to see the team play this week and French is the best one on the court. Goodwin is good but just got back to full recovery so he has time. From what I saw, best guys were the new recruits and transfers. Roby and Johnson did well but the new guys are legit. 

[Quality Is Job 1]

1 hour ago, Band Legend said:

We should be a steadily improving team that wins the conference tournament, rendering our rankings and free throw percentage meaningless.

Exactly.

Last season the team was "trending" in late February/early March nearly two letter grades better than their actual, full-season numbers, according to The Wiz.  If they start 2017-18, after 8 games, at B or B-, then "trending" in late February/early March by 1 to 1&1/3 letter grades would put them at A- to A+ and primed to win the conference tournament.  They might not be a likely at-large team or get a good seed as an automatic qualifier, but I think they'll have an excellent shot at winning that pool in Pittsburgh.

[Old guy]

However happy it may make us to think this way (and it does make me very happy make no mistake about  this), at this time and until the first 8 games are played all we have is speculation. But, we do have a much improved team over what we had last year and so it is reasonable to think that our baseline after the first 8 games will be above the D level we had last year. How much over this level, I really cannot say.

[HoosierPal]

3 hours ago, kshoe said:

This focus on fts seems a little odd to me. An average team shoots about 20 a game so a 5% difference (65% vs 70%) equates to 1 point per game. Sure 1 point per game could be a big deal but I'm not sure it's as big an issue as some would make it.

How many front ends of 1 and 1 did we miss last season?  I don't know either.  But there were too many.  I think you need to look at 2 to 4 point spread, but I'm not backing that up with a Wiz regression analysis. 

(We averaged only 18.1 FT attempts per game last year v 21.8 FT for our opponents.  We made 11.2 and they made 14.5 per game. We need those extra points.)

[NextYearBill]

big time talent doesnt need free throws.... look at Calipari Memphis teams... cost them a title at the end, but won A LOT of games

[3star_recruit]

6 hours ago, kshoe said:

This focus on fts seems a little odd to me. An average team shoots about 20 a game so a 5% difference (65% vs 70%) equates to 1 point per game. Sure 1 point per game could be a big deal but I'm not sure it's as big an issue as some would make it.

Because free throw shooting affects the outcome of close games.  It's the difference between a 20 win team and a 22 win team.

[3star_recruit]

1 hour ago, NextYearBill said:

big time talent doesnt need free throws.... look at Calipari Memphis teams... cost them a title at the end, but won A LOT of games

If you look at the best player in the conference at each position, we don't have the first or second best player at any position.  We are not the Memphis of this conference.

[cheeseman]

First of all lets not get crazy here - our talent is not Calipari Memphis quality - if so then show me so I can be educated.  Also, at the Big Tuna said - you are what your record says you are - in other words, you are a what your % shows you are in shooting FTs.  Can a player improve - of course but how many actually do that?  Most may tick up a little but a 10% improvement is pretty rare.  Hoosier is right - the key here is hitting the front ends of a 1 and 1.  If you miss those front ends you can leave a lot of points on the table.  I agree with those who are saying - lets watch them play first in games before we let the blue kool aid  drown us.

[brianstl]

Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Michigan St. and Kansas were decent enough last season despite being awful free throw shooting teams.  

[3star_recruit]

54 minutes ago, brianstl said:

Wisconsin, Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Michigan St. and Kansas were decent enough last season despite being awful free throw shooting teams.  

So if your point is that great talent can overcome poor free throw shooting, I think that's obvious.  But I thought we were talking about teams like ours who don't have magic bullets.  I don't see the first or second best player at any position on our roster.  Unlike the teams you mentioned:

Big 12 All Conference
First Team
Frank Mason, Kansas, POY
Josh Jackson, Kansas
Second Team
Devonte Graham, Kansas

Big 10 All conference
First Team
Ethan Happ, Wisconsin
Second Team
Miles Bridges, Michigan State
Bronson Koenig, Wisconsin

Big East All Conference
First Team
Angel Delgado, Seton Hall
Second Team
Khadeen Carrington, Seton Hall

Atlantic 10 All Conference
Second Team
Hassan Martin, Rhode Island
Defensive Player of the Year
Hassan Martin, Rhode Island

[kshoe]

4 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

How many front ends of 1 and 1 did we miss last season?  I don't know either.  But there were too many.  I think you need to look at 2 to 4 point spread, but I'm not backing that up with a Wiz regression analysis. 

(We averaged only 18.1 FT attempts per game last year v 21.8 FT for our opponents.  We made 11.2 and they made 14.5 per game. We need those extra points.)

Read your numbers closer: we took 3.7 fewer fts per game last year and made 3.3 fewer. Doesn't sound like the ft percentage was a major problem.

As for the one and ones. The MAXIMUM number of one and ones a team have have in a given game is 6. Since we are talking about a 5% made difference here that difference could lead to 0.3 extra fts per game. Now multiply that 0.3 by the expected percentage of 70% and you get .2 extra points per game. So 1 ppg turned into 1.2 at maximum when you you factor in the one and ones.