slufanskip Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Using these grades which come close to Wiz's rankings last year where will we end up. List Possible, likely, and what you would be disappointed with A+ 1-15, A 16-30, A- 31-50, B+ 50-75, B 75-100, B- Worse than 100 I'd say A- possible, B+ likely, and I'd be disappointed with a B Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tilkowsky Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 18 minutes ago, slufanskip said: Using these grades which come close to Wiz's rankings last year where will we end up. List Possible, likely, and what you would be disappointed with A+ 1-15, A 16-30, A- 31-50, B+ 50-75, B 75-100, B- Worse than 100 I'd say A- possible, B+ likely, and I'd be disappointed with a B You might get ready to be disappointed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NextYearBill Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 #58 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 76. That would be a jump of about 170 spots. Third greatest turnaround in SLU history. Would be disappointed in a B-. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zink Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Yeah, I think top-80 is a good bet. We have so much variance that it's hard to predict, but I'd be ok with that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Assuming that the Wiz is correct in his calculations and that his system does work (which I believe it does), we will do very well if we finish at a B level, around 75 - 100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 75-100 is realistic, id say. 18-22 wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeniceMenace Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 48 minutes ago, JMM28 said: 75-100 is realistic, id say. 18-22 wins. Agreed ... biggest question is how soon they will be in sync as a team, since just about everyone is new and never played together in a regular season game before... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Now, to throw some spice into the mix. The Wiz's system works within the limits of 95% of the normal statistical distribution curve. However, outliers do occur, there is still 5% of the area under the curve unaccounted for after all. Half of this is in the good side of the distribution curve, the other half is in the dismal side of the distribution curve. So, there is a very very small probability that if all lines up correctly and the team gels together from early on in the season ,as it may be hoped, that we may go above the 2 Standard deviations limit of Wiz's system. The chance of doing this is very very small but what the heck, anything may happen. If we can do this, we would have achieved a true outlier season. However wild this may seem, it must be remembered that last season we were not expected to win anywhere close to what we wound up wining. Some of this, maybe the greater portion of it, was due to Ford. Why not hope for a repeat "better than expected" outlier season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 For those of you interested in numbers, I expanded and gave more detail to my last post above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 I would say the Bills finish ranked in the 75-100 range. That said, I think we will be playing at a B+ level(maybe even A-) at the end of the season. It is going to take the team time to gel and I think Graves is going to be a big part of things when he becomes eligible which further delays the process. This would have been a great season to have a foreign trip, but SLU thought it was a good idea to burn that on Crews last season. That was a very stupid decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoastBilliken Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 I expect 15-20 wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFord and TRavs Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, WestCoastBilliken said: I expect 15-20 wins 3 more wins than last year? Really? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVBilliken Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 55 minutes ago, TFord and TRavs said: 3 more wins than last year? Really? Tougher schedule for sure. But way too early for predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 4 hours ago, brianstl said: I would say the Bills finish ranked in the 75-100 range. That said, I think we will be playing at a B+ level(maybe even A-) at the end of the season. It is going to take the team time to gel and I think Graves is going to be a big part of things when he becomes eligible which further delays the process. This would have been a great season to have a foreign trip, but SLU thought it was a good idea to burn that on Crews last season. That was a very stupid decision. Brianstl if this comes to happen, we will be playing an outlier season in the upper tail of the Standard Distribution curve, and we may well qualify for NIT or NCAA play. That is IF we wind up playing at B+ or A- level. Place your trust in Ford and pray a lot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 57 minutes ago, Old guy said: Brianstl if this comes to happen, we will be playing an outlier season in the upper tail of the Standard Distribution curve, and we may well qualify for NIT or NCAA play. That is IF we wind up playing at B+ or A- level. Place your trust in Ford and pray a lot. I think overall we will be at a B level. I just think we will be playing our best basketball at the end of the season. I think we will have to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 You and me together will be rooting for that my friend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 As I look through this thread, it looks like people got the essence of what I said....The grade of B....2 letter grade improvement ...somewhere around 75-100 ranking...95% probability (2SD).....etc. One key point though needs to be reemphasized...The grade of B is a MAXIMUM outcome ...not the most likely. If everything goes perfectly ...I wont repeat the dozen or so variables that all have to fall into place....we might get a B. Can we do better...It is possible but not probable. There is roughly about a 5% chance to do better ...Those are not great odds. It is the equivalent of coming up to a crap table and rolling an 11....Possible but not your most likely outcome. A grade B finish in the A-10 gets you a good chance to go to the NIT....Not trying to be a downer here ...just trying to be "most probable" Remember this is a team that hasn't come close to 500 in 3 years....and essentially a new team that hasn't really played together as a unit in real games. Can we go to the Dance this year...Roll an 11 on 1 try and the answer could be yes. "It is very certain that when it is not in our power to determine what is true, we ought to act according to what is most probable. ........Rene Descartes...1636 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Hi Wiz, the remaining 5% of the area under the curve beyond the 2 Standard Deviations are the tails of the curve. Since they are equal, there is only a 2.5% chance of doing better (the other 2.5% tail on the other side of the curve is best left alone) than the 2 letter max arrangement in your system, and indeed getting to the full B rating is something that will take a lot of work and effort. This is absolutely true. I completely agree that the 2SD area of greater probability will be where we end the year at. However, most probable does not mean it will happen, reality may be either better or worse than most probable. And let's be honest, the most probable outcome defined as the area within (+/-) 2SD from last year's results area is huge. It goes from 2 letters below to 2 letters above last year. I for one refuse to even consider the probability that we will be worse this year than last. This just does not compute inside my brain. And this is what makes things interesting, is it not? So, I prefer to continue rooting and praying for good things to happen to the Bills next season. And AMEN to that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 17 minutes ago, Old guy said: Hi Wiz, the remaining 5% of the area under the curve beyond the Standard Deviations are the tails of the curve. Since they are equal, there is only a 2.5% chance of doing better (the other 2.5% tail on the other side of the curve is best left alone) than the 2 letter max arrangement in your system, and indeed getting to the full B rating is something that will take a lot of work and effort. This is absolutely true. I completely agree that the 2SD area of greater probability will be where we end the year at. However, mot probable does not mean it will happen, reality may be either better or worse than most probable. And let's be honest, the most probable outcome defined as the area within (+/-) 2SD from last year's results area is huge. It goes from 2 letters below to 2 letters above last year. I for one refuse to even consider the probability that we will be worse this year than last. This just does not compute inside my brain. And this is what makes things interesting, is it not? So, I prefer to continue rooting and praying for good things to happen to the Bills next season. And AMEN to that Falling outside the curve is like rolling an 11 with a pair of dice. You are correct in that if we just talk about the upside (2.5%) ...B+ or better... than we will actually need to roll a 12. I am basically an optimist ..I go into every season thinking the Bills will do well....How else can you be a long time season ticket holder....The numbers side of the equation has always kept me grounded...usually on the down side...but during the Majerus years I actually swept to the upside when I saw an early trend that showed we were going to be an A team and probably go Dancing while many were still predicting doom and gloom...the famous MB73 confrontations. Over the years the board has always been overly optimistic which has led to some letdowns...and thus coining the phrase...it isn't easy being a Bills fan. I do believe if anyone can lead us to outlier land...it would be Ford. It just won't be easy ...even if a lot of things go right.....Everything has to go right. I will tell you this , I watched a number of practices last year and got a chance to see the transfers...the worst transfer was better than anyone we had playing last year...we have a significant upgrade in talent. And no matter how things go we will be a much better team this year. .We may not win every game this year but we will be able to compete in every game. I think last year Ford did more with less...This year he will be able to do more with more. Want to know what is really going to happen? See me at game 8. Go Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG BILL FAN Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 9 hours ago, brianstl said: I think overall we will be at a B level. I just think we will be playing our best basketball at the end of the season. I think we will have to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA. I don't see why we can't have a top 3 finish in the A-10, and that historically gets you into the tournament. While we have a lot of new players,we do have a fair amount of experience returning. I would be very surprised if we don't have 20+ wins. Top freshman in this day don't need much time to adjust to the college game. If the talent is there, which I think it is, then no need to temper expectations. http://www.richmond.com/sports/college/atlantic-10/number-of-a--teams-in-the-ncaa-tournament-since/article_879b61d1-8a2a-5dd8-8718-8acf959042a3.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorB Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 I scanned through this thread, and yes it's early, and so I will only say this: if we end this next season only at #80 I will be fairly disappointed if not alarmed. Maybe I am missing something here but this assemblage of talent bodes well for AT LEAST top 50... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted July 9, 2017 Author Share Posted July 9, 2017 I appreciate Wiz's work and generally agree with him. However, I think we will be an outlier because the situation with our team is rare. We have 7 new players, However 5 of those players have D1 experience and 4 of those have practiced with the team for a year or close to it. The 2 others are top 100 frosh. Normally when a team adds 7 players probably 5 of them are frosh and with a team finishing as a D or even a C (the teams that could move up 2 levels) those 5 frosh aren't top 100, in fact it's probably rare that 2 of them are top 100 for a team previously ranked as a C or lower. My point is the influx of talent and experience we have added is an outlier with regards to teams ranked as a C or lower. We have added an abnormal amount of talent which I believe will lead us to a rare jump in rankings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3star_recruit Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 54 minutes ago, DoctorB said: I scanned through this thread, and yes it's early, and so I will only say this: if we end this next season only at #80 I will be fairly disappointed if not alarmed. Maybe I am missing something here but this assemblage of talent bodes well for AT LEAST top 50... Hi Doc, For some context, the #72 team at the end of last season was Boise State. Their leading scorer averaged over 17ppg and nearly 50% from the field. Our best offensive player averaged 10ppg on 39% shooting for a 12 win Central Florida team. The Broncos core contributors had already played a full season together. Our guys have never played a single game together. Boise State shot over 70% from the free throw line. Our two top recruits struggle to shoot free throws. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 10 hours ago, The Wiz said: Falling outside the curve is like rolling an 11 with a pair of dice. You are correct in that if we just talk about the upside (2.5%) ...B+ or better... than we will actually need to roll a 12. I am basically an optimist ..I go into every season thinking the Bills will do well....How else can you be a long time season ticket holder....The numbers side of the equation has always kept me grounded...usually on the down side...but during the Majerus years I actually swept to the upside when I saw an early trend that showed we were going to be an A team and probably go Dancing while many were still predicting doom and gloom...the famous MB73 confrontations. Over the years the board has always been overly optimistic which has led to some letdowns...and thus coining the phrase...it isn't easy being a Bills fan. I do believe if anyone can lead us to outlier land...it would be Ford. It just won't be easy ...even if a lot of things go right.....Everything has to go right. I will tell you this , I watched a number of practices last year and got a chance to see the transfers...the worst transfer was better than anyone we had playing last year...we have a significant upgrade in talent. And no matter how things go we will be a much better team this year. .We may not win every game this year but we will be able to compete in every game. I think last year Ford did more with less...This year he will be able to do more with more. Want to know what is really going to happen? See me at game 8. Go Bills Exactly Wiz, exactly. Neither you nor anyone else will really know the starting baseline for this year's team until they have played their 8 games as you say. That baseline will determine where we will be next season. There is one exception to this, we know we will be adding Graves to play about mid season. This is an addition of an apparently heavy dose of new talent midway along the season. He will have had the advantage of practicing with the team for about a full year before he starts playing. This may cause a bump up mid year. However, our baseline is THE important factor here, and as we both agree it will not be determined until we play about 8 games. 44 minutes ago, slufanskip said: I appreciate Wiz's work and generally agree with him. However, I think we will be an outlier because the situation with our team is rare. We have 7 new players, However 5 of those players have D1 experience and 4 of those have practiced with the team for a year or close to it. The 2 others are top 100 frosh. Normally when a team adds 7 players probably 5 of them are frosh and with a team finishing as a D or even a C (the teams that could move up 2 levels) those 5 frosh aren't top 100, in fact it's probably rare that 2 of them are top 100 for a team previously ranked as a C or lower. My point is the influx of talent and experience we have added is an outlier with regards to teams ranked as a C or lower. We have added an abnormal amount of talent which I believe will lead us to a rare jump in rankings Fully agree with you sulfan. We have a very uncommon situation in our hands this year. Our two freshmen are top 100 ranking players (HS), and the bulk of the transfers have been practicing with the team for a year +. Also, and never to be forgotten, we need to add the factor of the increased physical development of our players this year. Add to that the fact that Ford is capable of turning around a depleted team in the middle of a losing season and make them improve, as we saw last season. I think that until proven otherwise our team's baseline this year will be well over the baseline established by last year's team. At least until we have played those initial 8 games we have every reason to be optimistic and dream about a really good SLU team raking up wins this season. So far all we have is conjecture and dreams. As the Wiz says we will see after 8 games. Personally, I can't wait to see what happens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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