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About kwyjibo

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  • Birthday 03/08/1965

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    Norwich, VT

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    Kevin McKinney

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  1. The Bills over Det M by 12

    Only as good as the algorithm driving it (intention, virtue, and intellect of the individual are only worthy in this context if they are embodied in the code).
  2. The Bills over Det M by 12

    This is all true but some computers are ahead of Vegas/Wiz/Sagarin; Pugh (ComPughter Ratings) has SLU + 25 and 7 Overtimes has SLU +23. There are some computers on the other side ESPN BPI predictor only has SLU at +8, Massey is only +7, and Talisman Red is only at +7.5.
  3. Calling Pistol!

    I see Grand(y) Canyon as a good argument against the profitability of college sports (at a minimum it proves there are huge barriers to entry). If college sports were so profitable there would be nothing stopping for-profit schools starting big sports programs or for even starting a for profit college to jump on the gravy train. Yet, there is only Grand Canyon and they WANT to be non-profit. Sports, and that also involves a lot investments in athletes outside of athletic department funding are way less profitable than usually acknowledged (the bulk of sports are funded by university losses and student fees not athletics revenue). Also, Grand Canyon only has one potentially revenue sport (OK, some others are potentially revenue sports but are not likely in the near future). They seem to have a well run athletics department but they are not a profit center. They have men's basketball and they are not making that much money. Dan Majerle comes at a bargain (he has bars in the area that benefit from him being in the local news) so that worked out. I think part of it is about being a recruiting tool as the university is not terribly selective and has a large online division. But that strategy only pays off when your goal is superficial academic gains. Sports can bring more attention and applications but they tend to decrease the quality of applicant. I would say that sports then might hurt a bit but that is not the case either as getting more applications has become more of a way to game the USNews rankings. So, sports success could be a minor help to your USNews rankings but you would not actually make the university better off (something for-profit universities would likely be have to be honest about). Sports are more likely to be a better draw in the actual student athletes themselves (better high school achievement is correlated with sports achievement) than in the spectators wanting college sports. This is the argument made by people I have talked to in elite college athletic departments (admittedly some of these are D-III). For the Ivy League, sports are important financially but that is about maintaining connections with wealthy alumni (rowing/crew programs are extremely expensive and are huge money pits except for the fact that crew alumni give generously and adamantly demand crew resources are maintained). Sports are also seen as a way to draw good student athletes so the notion of revenue becomes less important (Ivy football works out in that it gets alumni wallets flowing, gets lots of smart kids a chance to keep playing, and maintains enough of curiosity factor that NBC sports has a TV deal with them).
  4. SLU Soccer 2017

    I just want to note to the intelligent soccer fans (or at least one's who have watched a game in the last decade) that Fordham is in the Sweet 16. Fordham is not the only sweet 16 team that SLU beat this year as Stanford is in the sweet 16. Akron, whom SLU tied, is also in the sweet 16. A bunch of teams SLU lost to are in the Sweet 16 as well. I think SLU had a broadly talented team this year that were not particularly coached well. The A-10 had a good season and VCU got a seeded NCAA berth (UMass crapped out in the first round but they were really playing over their heads all year). The last few bids went to Washington, UNC-Wilmington (with 11-7 record), Pacific, Virginia Tech (YES! they made it with a .500 record), and Charlotte (8-5-6). It was a pretty strict RPI selection (although the seeding was not) with NC State (8-6-4) getting the non-RPI selection.
  5. You are certainly right that the poor A-10 start makes it look like SLU will have very few losses to play with (right now RPI forecast using Sagarin to determine Ws and Ls shows that SLU could only lose 6 or 7 regular season games and still be considered a reasonable at-large chance). I think the A-10 needs for Davidson to be good so their upcoming game against Nevada will be a good test. Even in a down A-10 most of SLU's losses will likely be there because they play 18 conference games. So it would be a dramatic improvement for this team to go 9-3 non-conf and then 15-3 in conference. I suspect this year that the 3rd place A-10 team will be 13-5 or so (balance and inconsistency). Everything is still possible right now but nothing is going to be easy.
  6. Other games

    Pomeroy bases his ratings on opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies. Beating Virginia Tech and holding a highly efficient offense to such a dismal performance has improved our rating. However, his system with limited number of games (3) still factors the "preseason" rating in highly. Pomeroy's "preseason" are good enough to account for personnel changes (it aggregates individual projections of efficiency from player histories including transfers). His system initially cannot adapt well for freshman to playing a lot of minutes or transfers with improved play. It will adapt and more accurately rate the Billikens over the year as others have noted although I am wondering if his model gives proper weight to good rebounding teams (SLU fans have not had to worry about this bias in a while but my thoughts are that lowered offensive FG percentages with more offensive rebounds may look less efficient than equivalent points scored with fewer rebounds).
  7. Recruiting - 2018 class

    A for-profit school that would rather be non-profit (not only for profit actually) because that is where the money is.
  8. SLU Soccer 2017

    The A10 is not a great soccer conference but it had a very good year for its better teams this year. The selection is in a few hours but I expect two at-large bids (Rhode Island is on the bubble but I expect only VCU and Fordham to get in). UMass is the A10 champs and a few years ago they looked terrible. They hired O'Leary a few years and he has done an outstanding job (he was Dartmouth and George Mason coach a while ago but he came from MLS and a DIII school before that). Recruiting is still somewhat difficult for him but he gets a lot out of his players. I admittedly have only seen the Billikens play once this year but they were obviously more talented than UMass yet UMass beat them twice. That is coaching (UMass did not have the skills for a lot of possession and slick passing but they were obviously coached well in positioning and set pieces). Although having seen SLU over the years I do not think this SLU team is particularly talented either -- it did have enough talent to be better than they were and to get an NCAA bid. UMass, with less talent, is getting a bid and a bye. I think recruiting is important and being in the A10 may be a small obstacle for that but you have to get a good tactical/system/teaching mind as well. In fact it is the most important thing--you cannot fake it or gloss over it. If that person has SLU or local connections so be it but there are a lot of rising programs in the NCAA right now that prove that recruiting is not the only factor (this is true in the era where foreign players are being shopped to college coaches by private agencies--you can fill in with competent players and luck without much recruiting savvy).
  9. Signed Recruit Thread

    The Webster game is at 9am ET on a Monday. It could be on ESPNU I guess but that would be an odd time. I saw Tommie Liddell play at the Hoophall Classic many years ago (sat next to Matt Painter) and would consider attending again.
  10. SLU Soccer 2017

    Yeah. There was some decent chances. UMass is well coached in set pieces and positioning. SLU looks better in possession and moves the ball better in midfield but nothing much near the box.
  11. SLU Soccer 2017

    I am guessing those interested will be watching the A10 stream but may post a live note or two.
  12. SLU Soccer 2017

    I am not saying they would be in the tournament without winning the A-10. What I am saying is that SLU is in the unique position when a .500 record could get you in as an at-large. That unique position was created by both a hard non-conference schedule and an unusually successful A-10 year. Some people only look at records (or negatives in general) and do not look at the actual selection criteria. The RPI formula in soccer includes built in rewards for quality wins and penalties for bad losses/ties and that is part of the reason SLU has a good RPI without a great record. Of course, tournament selection is more than RPI and also partly subjective. I cannot predict the subjective reaction of the committee but in general soccer has allowed quite a few teams with around .500 records into the tournament and will do so again this year. That is the point that must be acknowledged. You could say those teams are generally in the best conferences or you could say it is because those near .500 teams played a tough schedule. If the selection of near .500 teams is a function of "big conference conspiracy" then SLU would likely not get a .500 at-large bid but if the latter is true (the SOS is what matters and I think this is likely the reason for .500 at-large bids) then SLU has a good shot if their RPI is in the mid 30's and a decent shot (less than 50% though) if their RPI is in the high 30's.
  13. SLU Soccer 2017

    UMass, while likely in the tournament already, will still be viewing the SLU game as tourney guarantee. They will be ready and I plan on attending (although it will mean convincing my daughter to go). IF SLU wins their RPI will move into the high 30's and make that part of their resume solid. They have a lot of losses (home losses to Dayton and Davidson in particular will hurt) and that will count against them but they are 2-3-1 against top 25 RPI and would be 3-5-1 against top 50 IF they beat UMass. Ideally Fordham will beat Dayton and then beating Fordham will get SLU's RPI into the lower 30's (beating Dayton at home will also have a similar RPI effect but probably not look as good for the committee). Fordham, like UMass, is a likely tourney at large but no doubt are planning to beat Dayton at home to seal it.
  14. SLU Soccer 2017

    SInce you mentioned Sasho here is a nice long interview he gave recently on college soccer and American soccer in general (despite the fact he is Secretly Canadian!). https://www.socceramerica.com/publications/article/75514/sasho-cirovski-we-need-do-rediscover-our-shared-v.html
  15. SLU Soccer 2017

    Luckily Davidson lost so SLU is tied for 7th. Tiebreaker is best win against common opponents so Bonnies get 7th seed. SLU will play UMass and VCU will play Bonnies again.