pooch1918 Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Don't laugh...at least not out loud---yet. SLU's 14-10 right now...if you factor in a road loss at Charlotte while taking care of business at home---at the same rate they have been---the Bills are 17-11 going into the A-10 Tourney. If---IF---they continue to catch lightning in a bottle...by the end of the league tourney they'd have to be on ESPN's "bubble watch". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenbooster Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 La Salle is a road game, last game of the season. That will be a tough game as well. May be for the last 'bye' spot in the league tourney. mhg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooch1918 Posted February 19, 2006 Author Share Posted February 19, 2006 you're right. I forgot LaSalle was so good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Basketbill Posted February 19, 2006 Share Posted February 19, 2006 Yes Curtis Withers is excellent, but their team as a whole is not as good as the team we took to overtime at home without TL and KL. In my book it is a winnable game. Plus their ought not to be any surprises from the coaching staff. It was a close one there, down by only 2 with three minutes left last year. 54-52 with IO at the line for 1-1 he missed it and they hit a 3 in transition. We missed 6 FT done the stretch as well and lossed 65-59. They are beatable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetorch Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 We may be on the bubble but short of winning the conference tourney this team does not make the tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STLfan Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 I was thinking about this earlier today. If we finish 18-10 or 17-11 plus win two in the conference tournament we would probably be talked about but while we would have wins and SOS working in our favor but our RPI right now is 94. Our remaining opponents have RPI's of 151, 97, 175, and 99. So I don't see ours going down 50 or so spots. I hope I am wrong but I think we would need to win the conference tournament to get into the NCAA's. That is why we need to finish 4th or higher. I think we can beat anyone in the A10 but it would be alot easier getting the bye and having the first day off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go_Bills Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 lose to charlotte hell no never happen any one agree (i think will beat them easily) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenbooster Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 possible, but definitely not easily. Think we definitely need a big get together at Sportzone on Sat. I'm already thinking about a BIG turnout for this one. Can't watch this one at home. Anyone else? mhg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Billiken Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Unfortunately, I think in order for us to make the Tourney we have to win the Conference Tournament. While we have a good strength of schedule we haven't been able to beat any of those teams. Official Billikens.com sponsor of Kevin Shortal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMM28 Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Had we beat one of UNC, Gonzaga, GW, or Iowa then yes. The strength of schedule was great, but we are still 1-5 against the RPI top 50 (SIU) . Also, the 3-3 record against the 100-200 teams isn't too hot. Being 15-9 at this point with a win over Gonzaga or GW, would put us firmly on the bubble. And finally, Xavier taking a dump did not help matters. At the time we first beat them, they were around the 50's. Had they continued hot, they'd still be around there giving us 3 top 50 wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooch1918 Posted February 20, 2006 Author Share Posted February 20, 2006 this is still pie-in-the-sky conjecture---BUT, keep in mind the selection committee favors teams that finish hot. A 19 or 20 win streaking team from the A-10 could get the nod over a 22 win fading team from a similar conference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lefty Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Where's that coming from ? According to KenPom it's 89. Not horrible but hardly a committee earth-shaker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenbooster Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 But to be considered we would have to probably win 3/4 next games, which would be another win over LaSalle or Charlotte, then at least 2 wins in the conference tourney. Those games will help alot. this will be an interesting next two weeks, for sure. mhg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STLfan Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 I didn't realize it had fallen that low. It used to be a lot higher. Looking back through our schedule there are some teams that are really hurting us. RPI - School 307 - Eastern Illinois 263 - Jackson State 283 - Oakland 251 - Kennesaw State 270 - Chicago State 294 - St. Bonaventure 302 - Duquesne There is nothing we can do about Duquesne and St. Bonaventure but we need to be more carefull in our ooc part of the schedule. Seven teams below 250 in the rpi really hurts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 buy games are stupid. it would be different if we were in one of the top 5 conferences where the sos would recover once conference season starts, but the a-10 is not the acc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 seemed to be to schedule four "buy" games with teams we are guaranteed to beat. Truly bad teams ranked 250 and below. In past years we've always lost to a "buy" team duing the year and he didn't want it to happen this year. However, this is an absolute RPI killer as playing a game vs. Gonzaga and a game vs. Eastern Illinois is virtually the same as playing two .500 teams. People wonder why the Valley is ranked so high its precisely because of this and the fact they don't schedule the 250+ teams. I hope next year somebody talks to Brad about this and says if you are going to play 4 "buy" games make them teams ranked 150-200. There might be a small chance you lose to one of those but the RPI benefits are huge. Oral Roberts last year is a good example of a team we should play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 kshoe said, "I hope next year somebody talks to Brad about this and says if you are going to play 4 "buy" games make them teams ranked 150-200. There might be a small chance you lose to one of those but the RPI benefits are huge. Oral Roberts last year is a good example of a team we should play." the fact is if we cant sweep at home vs 150-200 rpi teams, we dont deserve to go on anyway. keep in mind we are likely going to always have the bottom feeder games from the a-10 for guarantees as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VTIME Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 >We may be on the bubble but short of winning the conference >tourney this team does not make the tourney. I think the expectations are a little too high. I dont think its a disappointment if this team doesnt make the NCAA's. When the season started people were just hoping to be above .500 after last year's debacle. Look how far this team has come. Already a 5 game improvement over last year and still climbing with two of our top 3 players being freshman. A strong run in the NIT, which I think we can win a national championship in would be nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoop Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 If we could win out and get 2 games in the A10 tourney it would be hard to keep us out. Granted, that's winning the next 6 games and 8 in a row total. 20-11, wishful thinking. But I'll keep thinking it until we lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 judging from the fact that we made virtually no advance in the rpi after beating temple with their very good sos and ok rpi, what would make you think that winning against even worst rpi teams will put us in the 40 rpi range? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
courtside Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 SLU had two ways to help themselves. 1) beat Gonzaga, Iowa etc...at home 2) Win conference road games. They didn't do this. I think the A-10 gets one team this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 courtside, if gw wins the conference tourney, i agree. one team. but gw is in regardless so an upset in the tourney would give the a-10 two teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluSignGuy Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 Not to be a pessimist, but the last time we started talking bubble (which I don't think we are), we lost to Richmond immediately following. Those Dayton and Richmond losses are killer right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 which this team might be capable of doing.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 20, 2006 Share Posted February 20, 2006 The reasons we didn't move up vs. Temple was 1) it was a home game 2) temple's W-L% isn't very good and W-L% is the most important determinant in analyzing a teams' affect on your RPI and 3) losses by teams like SIU, Iowa etc. can also affect us. Given that we play two teams with good winning % on the road, wins over those teams would significantly benefit us. Wins over Dayton and RI would only move us up a few spots. Add in a couple neutral court wins and I think we'd be in the 40-50s range. All that being said, it won't happen as we are still too inconsistent to win both games at LaSalle and Charlotte. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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