SF over the The Bills by 9

[The Wiz]

Game preview...

A nice win over JkSt ...not pretty but nice. Had we shot normal FTs (9 more pts) and just matched them in TOs (13 more pts) we win by 30. But instead,  winning by 8 keeps us at a C+...in all fairness, a blowout against this team wouldn't have changed things much either.  

We will be facing off against a good( B+ ) SF  team.  A team slightly better than Santa Clara(B ). Santa Clara is a team we could have beaten if we played them now as opposed to opening day.  At first glance it seems that SF is a way better team than SC when you look at their record except for the fact that SF has a C- schedule and SC has an A schedule. The point here is if you think we could have or should beaten SC than we should have a chance to beat SF.

Our offense is as good as SF's.  They have the edge in defense but their weakness on D is defending the 3.  Sooo, if we can have a good night from the arc and beat them on TOs we can win this game.  Won't be easy, but we have shown flashes that we can do this.  Start strong and finish strong and we have a chance.

Report Card.... 

 

.................SLU..................SF.....................SLU......................SF

...........................OFF...................................................DEF..........

PPG...........B....................B-...........................D+.......................A

FG%..........B....................A-...........................B-.......................A-

3P%...........B...................C+...........................C-.......................C

FT%.........  F+..................C-..........................................

Reb...........B-.................C-.............................D.........................B+

 OFF Rebs  = total Bills rebs...DEF Rebs = opp total reb

Report Card change....6 up...2 dn...+4

UP.....OFF...FG%...3P%...FT%...Reb.........DEF...PPG...FG%...Reb

Dn....OFF...FT%.....DEF...3P%

 

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU...

PPG...Jimerson ....34th...up

.........Swope.........37th....up

3PM......Jimerson...18th...dn

..............Swope......42nd....up

Reb,,,,,Anya...........5th...dn

FG%....Thames.....77th...dn

Asst...Swope...46th...up

Dou-Dou....Anya....58th...dn

SF...

FG%...Riley...94th

Stls...Thomas...48th

Injuries....

SLU....Warlick....12/3...Ques....undisclosed injury

SF...No injuries to report

Keys to the game....Thomas is their go to player....when they are in trouble or need points, he is their guy.  They have 3 guards...Thomas, Riley and Williams . They can all shoot and will be on the floor at the same time. Don't foul these guys...they don't miss at the charity stripe. This team like us, has a tendency to turn the ball over especially Williams.  Williams is a  Majerus type player with 187 slash line. Majerus use to say he would take a 180+ player sight unseen. This guy's flaw is if you pressure him he will turn the ball over. Riley is shooting 60% from the floor. For the Bills...Keep TOs down...and make some FTs. Finally play 40 min of bball...start strong...finish strong.

WWN2D2W....Bills target slash 50/36/ 73...Win the TO battle...keep TOs to 10 or less...Win the rebs by 2...Hold Thomas to 13 pts ....Keep the Dons to less than 75 pts. 

Bottom line....A win here would not only boost our grade but also our Net ranking.      No more wons for the Dons.

[Bay Area Billiken]

USF has started the same 5 players all 8 games. The Dons go 10 deep. All 13 players have logged minutes. In addition to the 2 star guards, Thomas (17.3 ppg, 6’5” USC transfer) and Williams (11 ppg, 6’2” Wyoming and Texas A&M transfer), the 6’6” freshman Riley is averaging 13 ppg.  Thomas and Williams are returnees, played together last year for USF. 

The starting 7’0” Center, Lingard, played at K-State and UTSA, averages 7 ppg. The 6’7” power forward, Newbury, from London, England, averages 9.3 ppg. 
 

USF plays tight away from the basket defense by West Coast standards. Like most WCC teams, the shot clock is rarely an issue when the Dons are on offense. 
 

The venue, War Memorial at the Sobrato Center, is the renovated War Memorial Gym. Expect the game to be called tighter than what SLU gets in the A10 vs. VCU. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

Matchup Predictor according to ESPN Analytics:  USF 86.5%, SLU 13.5%.

Torvik has SLU as an 11.1 point underdog, with predicted score 81-70 USF. 

But the game is played on the court.  Let's give them a holiday season surprise. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

CBS Sports has SLU +9.5/USF -9.5, Total 151.5.

[slu72]

Finally a benchmark game. Of course the last 3 games should have been blowouts so we’re still not sure what we got going here. But struggling against Q, UML, and JSU doesn’t actually fill me with confidence for this game. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

After opening at USF -9.5, the spread is down to USF -7.5 at ESPN, Total 151.5. 

[Old guy]

Spread at TeamRankings is USF -8.5 

[Bay Area Billiken]

ESPN line has moved again- to USF -8.5, Total 152.5. 
 

Get ready to shake, rattle and roll. Let’s Go Bills️

[Old guy]

From the point of view of the bettors, we are not that far from picking up a win. We will see tonight.

[Box and Won]

36 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

ESPN line has moved again- to USF -8.5, Total 152.5. 
 

Get ready to shake, rattle and roll. Let’s Go Bills️

Were I a gambling man, I'd take USF all day at -8.5. So that means the Bills will keep it close.

[gobillsgo]

17 minutes ago, Old guy said:

From the point of view of the bettors, we are not that far from picking up a win. We will see tonight.

If you consider that not that far, then I’m not that far from landing a date with Ana de Armas. 

[The Wiz]

Not a good night for the Bills...

Bolded phrases from original post...

Bills target slash 50/36/ 73...This was the failure in a nutshell...particularly the 3 pt  number....here is the actual slash...45/ 17/56....This means had we had just an ordinary night....we would have had 5 more 3s and 2 more FTs...Total 17 pts....the difference in the game....you can then throw in an unacceptable 17 TOs which created 5 extra SF  TO pts ....SF had trouble holding onto the ball too, by turning the ball over 15 times...a failure to cash in on another opportunity.

Bottom line... The biggest disappointment in this game was that as good as SF is,  had the Bills just had an average night they would have won this game. I read the posts on the board...we don't have the players...we don't have the defense...we don't have right strategy...etc. etc.  This is a team that is built on 3 s.... The report card for the entire D1 shows that any team that shoots below 30.1% from the arc gets an F-....What does it say about a team that is 3 dependent  that shoots 16.7% and this is not the first sub 20% game.

What is the answer going forward?  Shoot to your "potential average" to win.   Potential average is a number you can reach easily based on past performance. ...in the case of 3s it is 36.5 %.  For this team,  36.5% should and could be a C average.  Remember just a couple of games ago we shot 63.2% from the arc. The team doesn't need an extraordinary  performance to win games.  We have had 10 TOs in a game a few times....16+ is an F-....11 or 12 would win games for us. Do I dare say foul shooting? A few games ago we were 13th ITN in FT shooting hitting 80%+.  Now we can't make 60% or even 40% the game before. ...64.6% is F-...shoot 75% and win games.

Well, you get the idea...play "average"...play Billiken average...  and you will win most of the games.

 

[billiken_roy]

wiz is right.   i agree the 2024-25 billikens are built on the three and getting up and down the floor.   win or die with shooting the three and playing fast.  it is what it is and when we are not hitting from byond the line, other means will be a fail.  swope, avila, thames, whoever.   cannot go hero ball this team is not capable of success with any imitations of allen iverson.  

[CenHudDude]

5 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Not a good night for the Bills...

Bolded phrases from original post...

Bills target slash 50/36/ 73...This was the failure in a nutshell...particularly the 3 pt  number....here is the actual slash...45/ 17/56....This means had we had just an ordinary night....we would have had 5 more 3s and 2 more FTs...Total 17 pts....the difference in the game....you can then throw in an unacceptable 17 TOs which created 5 extra SF  TO pts ....SF had trouble holding onto the ball too, by turning the ball over 15 times...a failure to cash in on another opportunity.

Bottom line... The biggest disappointment in this game was that as good as SF is,  had the Bills just had an average night they would have won this game. I read the posts on the board...we don't have the players...we don't have the defense...we don't have right strategy...etc. etc.  This is a team that is built on 3 s.... The report card for the entire D1 shows that any team that shoots below 30.1% from the arc gets an F-....What does it say about a team that is 3 dependent  that shoots 16.7% and this is not the first sub 20% game.

What is the answer going forward?  Shoot to your "potential average" to win.   Potential average is a number you can reach easily based on past performance. ...in the case of 3s it is 36.5 %.  For this team,  36.5% should and could be a C average.  Remember just a couple of games ago we shot 63.2% from the arc. The team doesn't need an extraordinary  performance to win games.  We have had 10 TOs in a game a few times....16+ is an F-....11 or 12 would win games for us. Do I dare say foul shooting? A few games ago we were 13th ITN in FT shooting hitting 80%+.  Now we can't make 60% or even 40% the game before. ...64.6% is F-...shoot 75% and win games.

Well, you get the idea...play "average"...play Billiken average...  and you will win most of the games.

 

17% from three and 17 TOs.  That says it all for me.

[Old guy]

4 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Not a good night for the Bills...

Bolded phrases from original post...

Bills target slash 50/36/ 73...This was the failure in a nutshell...particularly the 3 pt  number....here is the actual slash...45/ 17/56....This means had we had just an ordinary night....we would have had 5 more 3s and 2 more FTs...Total 17 pts....the difference in the game....you can then throw in an unacceptable 17 TOs which created 5 extra SF  TO pts ....SF had trouble holding onto the ball too, by turning the ball over 15 times...a failure to cash in on another opportunity.

Bottom line... The biggest disappointment in this game was that as good as SF is,  had the Bills just had an average night they would have won this game. I read the posts on the board...we don't have the players...we don't have the defense...we don't have right strategy...etc. etc.  This is a team that is built on 3 s.... The report card for the entire D1 shows that any team that shoots below 30.1% from the arc gets an F-....What does it say about a team that is 3 dependent  that shoots 16.7% and this is not the first sub 20% game.

What is the answer going forward?  Shoot to your "potential average" to win.   Potential average is a number you can reach easily based on past performance. ...in the case of 3s it is 36.5 %.  For this team,  36.5% should and could be a C average.  Remember just a couple of games ago we shot 63.2% from the arc. The team doesn't need an extraordinary  performance to win games.  We have had 10 TOs in a game a few times....16+ is an F-....11 or 12 would win games for us. Do I dare say foul shooting? A few games ago we were 13th ITN in FT shooting hitting 80%+.  Now we can't make 60% or even 40% the game before. ...64.6% is F-...shoot 75% and win games.

Well, you get the idea...play "average"...play Billiken average...  and you will win most of the games.

 

Assumptions made in the evaluation were not  met, therefore the results calculated were also not met. This is genuine actuarial style thinking, very Bayesian, very "regression to  the means" style. We have enough games played to establish a statistical basis for average calculation. You are entirely correct, the Bills did not play their average game, the question is why? I think injuries may be playing a bigger part in the Bills inability to reach average levels of play than it seems.

Is Thames ready to play 15 minutes in a game at his full capacity? I really do not know, but I suspect he cannot do so. Should Brockhoff be played more minutes while Thames is played less minutes?

[HoosierPal]

I am not liking this hesitancy to shoot the mid range jumper.  Schertz has all but banned it, and the players won't take open mid rangers.  I've been watching, and in the past three games, the team has taken three mid range jumpers (making one).  There are visible opportunities where the jumper is there, but it isn't taken.  And do you think our opponent knows this?  Pack the arc and pack the paint.  When you are hitting 35% from the arc, and 65% under the basket, the math works.  When you hit 20% from the arc, the math doesn't work.

[Fraz]

8 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Not a good night for the Bills...

Bolded phrases from original post...

Bills target slash 50/36/ 73...This was the failure in a nutshell...particularly the 3 pt  number....here is the actual slash...45/ 17/56....This means had we had just an ordinary night....we would have had 5 more 3s and 2 more FTs...Total 17 pts....the difference in the game....you can then throw in an unacceptable 17 TOs which created 5 extra SF  TO pts ....SF had trouble holding onto the ball too, by turning the ball over 15 times...a failure to cash in on another opportunity.

Bottom line... The biggest disappointment in this game was that as good as SF is,  had the Bills just had an average night they would have won this game. I read the posts on the board...we don't have the players...we don't have the defense...we don't have right strategy...etc. etc.  This is a team that is built on 3 s.... The report card for the entire D1 shows that any team that shoots below 30.1% from the arc gets an F-....What does it say about a team that is 3 dependent  that shoots 16.7% and this is not the first sub 20% game.

What is the answer going forward?  Shoot to your "potential average" to win.   Potential average is a number you can reach easily based on past performance. ...in the case of 3s it is 36.5 %.  For this team,  36.5% should and could be a C average.  Remember just a couple of games ago we shot 63.2% from the arc. The team doesn't need an extraordinary  performance to win games.  We have had 10 TOs in a game a few times....16+ is an F-....11 or 12 would win games for us. Do I dare say foul shooting? A few games ago we were 13th ITN in FT shooting hitting 80%+.  Now we can't make 60% or even 40% the game before. ...64.6% is F-...shoot 75% and win games.

Well, you get the idea...play "average"...play Billiken average...  and you will win most of the games.

 

Wiz, thank you for the data points.  I’m wondering the significance of the now 8 game sample.  I believe in previous posts you’ve acknowledged this is the magic number to determine what the team actually is.

With multiple sub 20% shooting games for the arc, it’s possible we just aren’t a good shooting team right?  And a team built to shoot that can’t shoot will not get the results

[Lord Elrond]

At this point, I don’t think we can hit reliably from 3 pt range, which is the kiss of death for a team that’s supposed to get points from 3 pt range.  So, Billikens, GO PROVE ME WRONG!  Not just in streaks, but CONSISTENTLY.

[The Wiz]

3 hours ago, Fraz said:

Wiz, thank you for the data points.  I’m wondering the significance of the now 8 game sample.  I believe in previous posts you’ve acknowledged this is the magic number to determine what the team actually is.

With multiple sub 20% shooting games for the arc, it’s possible we just aren’t a good shooting team right?  And a team built to shoot that can’t shoot will not get the results

Yes the 8th game is coming up. I will do a review of the season on Mon after the Chi St game(8th D1 game). The 8th game is not a  perfect sample size . It is a minimum sample size to be able to draw some observations. To answer your question, about our we a bad shooting team and thus are not good enough to win ...I think the real answer is we can shoot and we are good enough to win but we our inconsistent. Part of the problem is a series of injuries that have not only taken out some key players but have reduced depth to the point where players start to fade in the 2nd half.

Bottom line is inconsistency.....If we can become consistent we can win.   Here is a quick hypothetical example....Imagine the Bills are about to play 10 games and we have been shooting 40% from 3 (hypothetically).  If we alternate between 60% and 20% from the arc each game ....we go 5-5. Now take another 10 games and the Bills are still a 40% team from 3 and this time they  do it every game...The projected record is 8-2.  Same team...same players ...same final shooting stat. The first team is a C team...the 2nd team is an A team.  Can the C team become an A team?  Yes...but it will take practice, focus and being ready to play every game. It will also take some depth...meaning we need to get some players back and stay healthy.  The season is still young and there is still time to turn the ship around...we have about 3 weeks for something to happen.... the clock is ticking.