The Wiz Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Chance 2 Dance... The Bills ....59%...up 1 pt Day.............58%....up 8 pts VCU............44%.....new No other A-10 teams were 40% or above. Well, at least I don't have to answer anymore questions about why Davidson was never listed. However this report brings up new questions like... 1...How did we move up in the C2D after a loss to SB? 2...How can we be in the running at all? 3...And why do I keep saying we are the best team in the league after 2 losses to SB? First let's take a little trip down C2D lane. In order to understand this report and the probability of The Bills getting a C2D, you first have to understand how the computer thinks. First lesson is, the computer doesn't think like a Bills.com poster. It first figures out the wins and losses of the remaining Bills games plus all the remaining games of the other 357 teams. From there it tries to figure out how many bids each league will get. When it looks at the A-10, it sees the auto bid for winning the A-10 tourney. After that , it doesn't see to much. With the A10 cannibalizing itself down the stretch maybe there will be a couple of teams in the 50%s. One will get the auto bid the other will be at the mercy of the Committee....which is a bleak outlook if you are going in from a position of weakness. In other words , the computer is not wasting much storage space trying to figure out the NET or the Committee when it comes to the A-10. In the end , what you see is pretty much the chance for the auto bid. So let's answer the questions above.... 1...As teams show their weakness in wins and losses, the computer figured after Sat close loss to SB away that...that was better than expected compared to what other A-10 teams showed on Sat. I should point out that while we gained 1 pt on Sat, we lost 5 since last week. 2&3...We are still in the running because the computer thinks we are the best team in the A-10...And it thinks that because it thinks we will win the A-10 tourney. We will win because of what we have shown so far against the other A-10 teams...in addition we may not have the best offense or the best defense BUT we have the best combined off and def in the league. We have the best depth to make it through a grueling tourney. Again, I need to point out we have just a 1 point lead on C2D so our " goodness" can only take us so far... We do need to win at least enough games to finish in the top 4 which the computer thinks we will do. If that happens, it thinks we will win the tourney. Bills can't be beat...they can only give it away. Enough dancing around, it's time to look at the report card. ...................SLU.....................LaS..........................SLU.........................LaS .................................OFF..........................................................DEF............. PPG...............A.......................D+.............................C+............................D- FG%...............B+.....................D-.............................B...............................C- 3P%..............B+......................D+.............................B+.............................F FT%...............A+ 16th ITN......D.................................................................... Reb...............A.........................B+.............................A-.............................D+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP....Off...FG%...FT%.....Def.....3P%...Reb Down....Off...none.....Def...PPG...FG% Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm SLU Assts...Collins... 1st... unch Stls......Collins....24th....dn Dou-Dou....Collins...48th...dn FG%....Okoro....45th...up Off Reb...Okoro...88th...dn FTA/FGA....Linssen...15th...up Team FTM...9th LaS Blks...Moore....19th Injury/ Illness None Keys to the game.....It can be argued whether D+ rated LaS will become the A-10 bottom feeder but there is no question that they will be a PIG team. This is just a bad team... Moore and Nickelberry are pretty much their team...Stop them and we win or should I say we win by more. We should use this game as a tune up...not just for a win but getting back on track to avoid careless mistakes and excess TOs. WWN2D2W....LaS slash line...less than40/ less than 30/ less than 60....Hold Moore and Nickelberry to 30 pts. Out reb by 10...Hold Moore to 6 rebs. SLU TOs 11...Pressure Brickus and he will give up 4 TOs. Make 3s 38%. LaS has one of the worst 3 P defenses. Bottom line...We finished strong in the 2nd half at SB. Let's put 2 good halves together against LaS and Explore new ways to win. CBFan likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Bills by 20. Angry but focused team. billiken_roy and CBFan like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Wiz - I’m surprised your line is this low. Last week you had SLU by 10 at La Salle. Is the reason it’s the same at home because you don’t see much homecourt advantage, or has SLU dropped in your rankings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 hope you are right. the players should be! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Bills by 20. Angry but focused team. If ALL my numbers come to be in the LaS report.... Then you will be correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, NH said: Wiz - I’m surprised your line is this low. Last week you had SLU by 10 at La Salle. Is the reason it’s the same at home because you don’t see much homecourt advantage, or has SLU dropped in your rankings? Both... See my response to HPal above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glazedandconfused Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 59% chance for SLU to make NCAA is certainly a choice Wiz, do you have a breakout of how much of that is assuming we win A10 tourney or get an at-large. Hard to see how our at-large chances are >10% and obviously no one has a 50% chance at winning a 14 team tourney. Might need to F5 your model haha BigMouthBilliken likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Both... See my response to HPal above. Gotcha, sounds like the smart money is on La Salle +14 then. Nobody beats the Wiz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, glazedandconfused said: 59% chance for SLU to make NCAA is certainly a choice Wiz, do you have a breakout of how much of that is assuming we win A10 tourney or get an at-large. Hard to see how our at-large chances are >10% and obviously no one has a 50% chance at winning a 14 team tourney. Might need to F5 your model haha As I mentioned in the original post ... Most of the 59% is A-10 tourney win... Maybe 1-2% is of that is an at large bid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glazedandconfused Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, The Wiz said: As I mentioned in the original post ... Most of the 59% is A-10 tourney win... Maybe 1-2% is of that is an at large bid. do you by chance have the breakout of the top 6 teams by % to win A10 tourney? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, NH said: Gotcha, sounds like the smart money is on La Salle +14 then. Nobody beats the Wiz. I don't advise people what to do with their money... well at least their gambling money but when I differ with Vegas by at least 3 pts, it is time to sit up and take notice. Vegas is now giving LaS 13.5 pts. 2 caveats... 1...things can change on the Vegas end by game time.... 2.. read my response to HPal above Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, The Wiz said: As I mentioned in the original post ... Most of the 59% is A-10 tourney win... Maybe 1-2% is of that is an at large bid. So you're saying we have a 1-2% of an at large? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said: do you by chance have the breakout of the top 6 teams by % to win A10 tourney? If a team doesn't have at least a 40% chance by mid-Feb than it isn't worth wasting the computer's time. It would rather spend time looking at the new computer chips coming out than waste time figuring out LaS chances to win the tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, wgstl said: So you're saying we have a 1-2% of an at large? I will let another poster cue the Jim Carrey clip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glazedandconfused Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, The Wiz said: If a team doesn't have at least a 40% chance by mid-Feb than it isn't worth wasting the computer's time. It would rather spend time looking at the new computer chips coming out than waste time figuring out LaS chances to win the tourney. Haha yes, i wasn’t asking about LaSalle (but you knew that) Just pointing out the humor in your model saying SLU has a 57% chance to win a10 tourney and that implies teams like Dayton, Davidson, VCU, Bonnies, Richmond all have like an 8% chance to win. Also, if we look at it game by game, that implies (assuming top 4 finish which itself is probably like 57%): Quarters: Neutral site vs Bonnies (83% chance to win) Semis: vs Davidson (83% chance to win) Finals: vs VCU/Dayton (83% chance to win) If we play 18 Neutral site games vs Bonnies/Davidson/Dayton, Wiz, your model says we would 15 of them. I do agree we have a legit chance to make a run, but your model says if you get even odds SLU vs the field in the A10 tourney, to easily take SLU. Lol. Oh well have a good day - just got a good laugh out of 57%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BilliesBy40 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said: Haha yes, i wasn’t asking about LaSalle (but you knew that) Just pointing out the humor in your model saying SLU has a 57% chance to win a10 tourney and that implies teams like Dayton, Davidson, VCU, Bonnies, Richmond all have like an 8% chance to win. Also, if we look at it game by game, that implies (assuming top 4 finish which itself is probably like 57%): Quarters: Neutral site vs Bonnies (83% chance to win) Semis: vs Davidson (83% chance to win) Finals: vs VCU/Dayton (83% chance to win) If we play 18 Neutral site games vs Bonnies/Davidson/Dayton, Wiz, your model says we would 15 of them. I do agree we have a legit chance to make a run, but your model says if you get even odds SLU vs the field in the A10 tourney, to easily take SLU. Lol. Oh well have a good day - just got a good laugh out of 57%. Team Ranking has our odds of winning the A10 tournament at 19%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glazedandconfused Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, BilliesBy40 said: Team Ranking has our odds of winning the A10 tournament at 19%. Reasonable. Realistically the top 6 (Dav, Day, VCU, SLU, Bonnies, Rich) all have somewhere between 10-20% chance…with no one else having a >1% chance. League is way too wide open to have a 57% favorite. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 I think the thing about the Wiz model is that somebody has to win the A-10 tourney. It's not like Powerball, where it's possible no one wins. And we (and Dayton) are the most likely to win it all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glazedandconfused Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, juniorbill76 said: I think the thing about the Wiz model is that somebody has to win the A-10 tourney. It's not like Powerball, where it's possible no one wins. And we (and Dayton) are the most likely to win it all. No one forgot this or posted anything that would make it seem like they forgot this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 58 minutes ago, juniorbill76 said: I think the thing about the Wiz model is that somebody has to win the A-10 tourney. It's not like Powerball, where it's possible no one wins. And we (and Dayton) are the most likely to win it all. This is correct, as long as the full A10 tournament is played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgeldmacher Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 hours ago, The Wiz said: As I mentioned in the original post ... Most of the 59% is A-10 tourney win... Maybe 1-2% is of that is an at large bid. Color me confused. Maybe you can help explain. If SLU's chances are 59% to make the tournament, and 1-2% is coming from our at-large bid chances, then you are saying we have a 57% or so chance of winning the A-10 tournament. You also say that Dayton has a 58% chance of making the tournament and VCU has a 44% chance. I assume that their at large chances are also 1-2%. This means that you are saying that Dayton has a 56% chance of winning the A-10 tournament at VCU has a 42% chance. How can we have a 57% chance of winning the A-10 tournament while at the same time Dayton has a 56% chance and VCU has a 42% chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 31 minutes ago, cgeldmacher said: Color me confused. Maybe you can help explain. If SLU's chances are 59% to make the tournament, and 1-2% is coming from our at-large bid chances, then you are saying we have a 57% or so chance of winning the A-10 tournament. You also say that Dayton has a 58% chance of making the tournament and VCU has a 44% chance. I assume that their at large chances are also 1-2%. This means that you are saying that Dayton has a 56% chance of winning the A-10 tournament at VCU has a 42% chance. How can we have a 57% chance of winning the A-10 tournament while at the same time Dayton has a 56% chance and VCU has a 42% chance? Because probabilities are not calculated like numbers and do not have to add up to "100%". Probabilities are calculated against the whole set of opponents. What matters is who has the highest probability. Several teams may have over 40-50% probability to win the tournament, as is the case here. What happens is that as teams are eliminated out of the tournament the probability to win the tournament for the remaining teams increases. This goes on until the finals when only one team wins. Take life expectancy, which is a form of applied probability. At age 65 a non smoker has a life expectancy average of 22.6 years (these are old numbers, current data is probably different). Does that mean that 50% of the people reaching age 65 who do not smoke will survive past this number, and 50% will not? Not so, as the ones with a high disease burden die, the average life expectancy for everyone else remaining alive in that cohort will increase. The older you get past 65 the longer your life expectancy becomes, at least until you pass the 22.6 years of average survival. At some point in time most of the people in the cohort just die, usually in their 80s and 90s, and only a handful will be left. The ones left after this "extinction event" in the cohort are the ones that may live over 100, not many do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glazedandconfused Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, Old guy said: Because probabilities are not calculated like numbers and do not have to add up to "100%". Probabilities are calculated against the whole set of opponents. What matters is who has the highest probability. Several teams may have over 40-50% probability to win the tournament, as is the case here. What happens is that as teams are eliminated out of the tournament the probability to win the tournament for the remaining teams increases. This goes on until the finals when only one team wins. Take life expectancy. At age 65 a non smoker has a life expectancy average of 22.6 years (these are old numbers). Does that mean that 50% of the people reaching age 65 who does not smoke will go over this number, and 50% will not? Not so, as the ones with a high disease burden die, the average life expectancy for everyone else in that cohort will increase. Same thing happens, the older you get past 65 the longer your life expectancy becomes, at least until you pass the 22.6 years of survival. At some point most of the people in the cohort just die and only a handful are left. Old Man, no. in this case the probabilities must add up to 100%. There can’t be 3 teams with a 50% chance of winning the A10 tournament. I’ve just confirmed with a 2nd grader. cgeldmacher likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bills71 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said: Old Man, no. in this case the probabilities must add up to 100%. There can’t be 3 teams with a 50% chance of winning the A10 tournament. I’ve just confirmed with a 2nd grader. Perhaps that’s why we can discount you contributions. Suggest you find a higher level of experience than a 2nd grader! Chance 2 Dance... The Bills ....59%... Day.............58%... VCU............44%.… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said: Old Man, no. in this case the probabilities must add up to 100%. There can’t be 3 teams with a 50% chance of winning the A10 tournament. I’ve just confirmed with a 2nd grader. Good thing, the 2nd grader is a natural for a career in life insurance as an actuary. Make sure he gets a lot of math during his education. dennis_w likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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