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The Bills over LaS by 10


The Wiz

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5 minutes ago, Bills71 said:


Perhaps that’s why we can discount you contributions.  Suggest you find a higher level of experience than a 2nd grader!

 

Chance 2 Dance...

The Bills ....59%...

Day.............58%...

VCU............44%.…

Chance 2 Dance is different than winning the A10 tourney. Yes multiple teams can have a >50% chance of dancing, but that’s because multiple teams can get bids. Only 1 team can win the A10 tourney so the %s must add up to 100%. This isn’t even debatable haha this is just how math works.  

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Let me clarify things here a bit. My model differs from most others in that I force the computer to pick a winner The 59% is mainly the auto bid.  Anybody left then goes into the selection committee bucket. So yes you can have over 100%...And this is why 40% is a cutoff on C2D. Teams that are below 40% don't make it to the selection committee.....And the percent in the selection bucket has a wide margin of error because the committee has a lot of subjectivity.. that subjectivity could push the margin anywhere from 40 to 66%. 

BTW, one of the few scenarios that gives the A10  two bids is ...SLU and Day winning out and facing each other in the championship game.  SLU and Day both go Dancing ...59% & 58%  Chance 2  Dance

 

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1 minute ago, The Wiz said:

Let me clarify things here a bit. My model differs from most others in that I force the computer to pick a winner The 59% is mainly the auto bid.  Anybody left then goes into the selection committee bucket. So yes you can have over 100%...And this is why 40% is a cutoff on C2D. Teams that are below 40% don't make it to the selection committee.....And the percent in the selection bucket has a wide margin of error because the committee has a lot of subjectivity.. that subjectivity could push the margin anywhere from 40 to 66%. 

BTW, one of the few scenarios that gives the A10  two bids is ...SLU and Day winning out and facing each other in the championship game.  SLU and Day both go Dancing ...59% & 58%  Chance 2  Dance

 

Yes, we’ve established you can have more than 2 bids so chance to dance can be >100% but you can’t have greater than 100% chance of winning the A10 tournament
 

Does your “model” still think SLU has a 57% chance of winning A10 tourney? If so, you’re probably wasting your time with it.

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7 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

Yes, we’ve established you can have more than 2 bids so chance to dance can be >100% but you can’t have greater than 100% chance of winning the A10 tournament
 

Does your “model” still think SLU has a 57% chance of winning A10 tourney? If so, you’re probably wasting your time with it.

This isn't what he's saying, I don't think. The C2D percentage is an aggregate of our total chances out of 100% to make the NCAA tournament, with the majority being winning the A10 and 2% or so being At-Large. The chance of us winning the A10 Tournament is not included in this calculation, just the assumption that we do win the tournament is the majority of our chances to make the NCAA Tournament. I would like to see an individual calculation of our chances to win the A10 Tournament, though, for fun.

 

The computer likes what it sees, I'm not gonna argue 🤷‍♂️

Edited by BrettJollyComedyHour
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31 minutes ago, BrettJollyComedyHour said:

This isn't what he's saying, I don't think. The C2D percentage is an aggregate of our total chances out of 100% to make the NCAA tournament, with the majority being winning the A10 and 2% or so being At-Large. The chance of us winning the A10 Tournament is not included in this calculation, just the assumption that we do win the tournament is the majority of our chances to make the NCAA Tournament. I would like to see an individual calculation of our chances to win the A10 Tournament, though, for fun.

 

The computer likes what it sees, I'm not gonna argue 🤷‍♂️

I guess I don’t see how Wiz isn’t implying we are >50% chance to win A10 tourney if he is saying we are 59% chance to make tourney and essentially unable to get an at-large. 

 

I second BrettJollyComedyHour and would like to see your odds for who wins A10 tourney (you can just include the 6 good teams if that makes it easier) 

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You did an excellent job choosing your name for this board. Let's try to simplify things. If you have a single game with two opponents, one wins, the other one gets a loss. In this case the percentages (probability to win the game prior to it) add to 100%. What we are discussing here is very different, we have 6 more games to play before the tournament, and ? number of games to play in the tournament, we do not what seed number we are going to get or who we are going to play in the tournament. Every team going to the tournament is in a similar situation, each one with its own capabilities and probabilities to win the tournament. This is not a simple one on one calculation with one winner and one loser, this is pretty complex.

Let me start by showing you that when you are dealing with. Let's limit our discussion here to a system with just two separate outcomes, one after the other. The percentages for outcome one plus outcome two do not add correctly. The error margin of the percentages  is more pronounced the more games and opponents you need to beat. Do you understand that basic fact? To make it real simple for you and your kid, let's use a pretty fixed model using just money. Let's say that you have $10,000 in the market, the first day you gain 10%, the second day you lose 10%. If you add the percentage gain and percentage lost, the answer is 0%, means the amount you have in the market remains intact. But it is not, check this out:

Day 1 start $10,000 + gain 10% (+$1000), end of the day total $11,000 total.

Day 2 start $11,000 - loss !0% (-$1100), end of the day total $9900 total.

You cannot add and subtract percentages from two different individual outcomes. Do you get this now, or not?

Statistics and probability are not arithmetical expressions, even if they look like them, they change with separate outcomes.

Jesus, Lord, do the numbers. After every single outcome after the stats change, as do the probabilities. What is available to us right now is an approximate overall projection based upon sophisticated calculations, this is not arithmetic. Do you get it?

 

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Just now, Old guy said:

You did an excellent job choosing your name for this board. Let's try to simplify things. If you have a single game with two opponents, one wins, the other one gets a loss. In this case the percentages (probability to win the game prior to it) add to 100%. What we are discussing here is very different, we have 6 more games to play before the tournament, and ? number of games to play in the tournament, we do not what seed number we are going to get or who we are going to play in the tournament. Every team going to the tournament is in a similar situation, each one with its own capabilities and probabilities to win the tournament. This is not a simple one on one calculation with one winner and one loser, this is pretty complex.

Let me start by showing you that when you are dealing with. Let's limit our discussion here to a system with just two separate outcomes, one after the other. The percentages for outcome one plus outcome two do not add correctly. The error margin of the percentages  is more pronounced the more games and opponents you need to beat. Do you understand that basic fact? To make it real simple for you and your kid, let's use a pretty fixed model using just money. Let's say that you have $10,000 in the market, the first day you gain 10%, the second day you lose 10%. If you add the percentage gain and percentage lost, the answer is 0%, means the amount you have in the market remains intact. But it is not, check this out:

Day 1 start $10,000 + gain 10% (+$1000), end of the day total $11,000 total.

Day 2 start $11,000 - loss !0% (-$1100), end of the day total $9900 total.

You cannot add and subtract percentages from two different individual outcomes. Do you get this now, or not?

Statistics and probability are not arithmetical expressions, even if they look like them, they change with separate outcomes.

Jesus, Lord, do the numbers. After every single outcome after the stats change, as do the probabilities. What is available to us right now is an approximate overall projection based upon sophisticated calculations, this is not arithmetic. Do you get it?

 

Old guy, shout-out for an all-time bad post haha. Once again, you are incorrect here. I’m talking about the 14 teams and their respective chances to Win the A10 tournament. That adds up to 100%. There is only one winner and always one winner. In a hypothetical tourney where all 14 teams were equal, every team would have a  7.14% chance of winning …adding up to 100%. 

 

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OK, so let's have you calculate using your own math the probability for each team in A10 to win the tournament. I do not do this kind of modeling but the Wiz does, are you capable of making your own estimate?

By the way, I gave you a simple example with numbers, do you understand that the probabilities change after very single game?

 

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8 minutes ago, Old guy said:

OK, so let's have you calculate using your own math the probability for each team in A10 to win the tournament. I do not do this kind of modeling but the Wiz does, are you capable of making your own estimate?

By the way, I gave you a simple example with numbers, do you understand that the probabilities change after very single game?

 

A reasonable estimate would look like this. I would guess vegas/other predictive metrics have somewhat similar numbers. 

Davidson 15%
SLU 20%
Bonnies 15%
Dayton 15%
VCU 15%
Ricmond 13%
Mason 3%
Rhody 3%

All other 1%
 

And yes obviously probabilities change all the time in the regular season and throughout the A10 tourney. But, they still always add up to 100% if we are talking about which team wins the A10 tourney.

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14 minutes ago, glazedandconfused said:

A reasonable estimate would look like this. I would guess vegas/other predictive metrics have somewhat similar numbers. 

Davidson 15%
SLU 20%
Bonnies 15%
Dayton 15%
VCU 15%
Ricmond 13%
Mason 3%
Rhody 3%

All other 1%
 

And yes obviously probabilities change all the time in the regular season and throughout the A10 tourney. But, they still always add up to 100% if we are talking about which team wins the A10 tourney.

OK, if you say so.

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What a great win...Just what we needed...a dominant win to get back on track.

First , let's start with the great shooting. The Bills exceeded the Holy Grail of basketball shooting....180... coming in at 193.5...64.3/  62.5 / 66.7 ...here is the full line including 2P shooting....64.3/ 65 /62.5  / 66.7....a very unusual line, all 4 components were within 4.2% of one another... amazing and remarkable. Even the FTs which look low were only 1 shot off because of the low number of FTA. (12)

We had an extra four 2s and an extra four 3s and we missed 1 extra FT...

Let's see what happened in yesterday's game. Bolded statements from original post...

LaS slash line...less than40/ less than 30/ less than 60....34/ 27 / 94 ...excellent....can't do much about the FT shooting but  1 missing 3 pointer plus 2 missing 2s(7pts) made up for the extra 6 FTM.

Hold Moore and Nickelberry to 30 pts...25pts...great D

Out reb by 10....19 works just fine

Hold Moore to 6....5 is good.

Pressure Brickus and he will give up 4 TOs....We did pressure him and while he only gave up 1 TO  the pressure worked as LaS leading 3P shooter shoots zero going 0-4...Another nice job.

Make 3s  38%.   LaS has one of the worst 3 P defenses....And did we ever...63%...far exceed

SLU TOs 11...This was the only fly in the ointment. But fortunately no harm done.  Bills 16...LaS 11..  A couple of  items here...Pts off TOs... LaS 2 extra pts...In the 1st half when the game was still in contention the Bills only had 6 TOs.  While the TOs didn't matter in this game  and 16 is better than 18, it is still too many. We need to tamp this down to around 11 for the upcoming games.

And finally from @HoosierPal

15 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Bills by 20. Angry but focused team. 

The Wiz...If ALL my numbers come to be in the LaS report.... Then you will be correct. ....And the numbers came to be and far exceeded surpassing my target and even HPs optimistic outlook.

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One of the interesting features of last night's game is that Collins (5 pts), Linssen (4 pts), and Okoro (6 pts), did not score much, the big scorers of the night were Thatch (21 pts), Nesbitt (16 pts), Gibson (12 pts), and Hargrove (13 pts). Strickland who did not play against St. Bona had 6 pts. I think, Gibson was neutralized early in the first St. Bona game with his nose injury, by the pack that limited his breathing and by the pain. He just could not play up to par for the rest of the game. He did OK in the second game score wise.

The  point I want to make is that we do have depth in our team and should use it in all the games we play. When we play a reduced number of players against a tough opponent and lose, we might have improved the score and maybe even win if we had used the bench depth more effectively. That said, I am certainly not a basketball player or a coach, far from it, but those are my two cents worth about the prior game and the St. Bona games.

Although I believe it will not be easy to achieve, It think we can still manage to get to the dance this year.

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7 hours ago, The Wiz said:

What a great win...Just what we needed...a dominant win to get back on track.

First , let's start with the great shooting. The Bills exceeded the Holy Grail of basketball shooting....180... coming in at 193.5...64.3/  62.5 / 66.7 ...here is the full line including 2P shooting....64.3/ 65 /62.5  / 66.7....a very unusual line, all 4 components were within 4.2% of one another... amazing and remarkable. Even the FTs which look low were only 1 shot off because of the low number of FTA. (12)

We had an extra four 2s and an extra four 3s and we missed 1 extra FT...

Let's see what happened in yesterday's game. Bolded statements from original post...

LaS slash line...less than40/ less than 30/ less than 60....34/ 27 / 94 ...excellent....can't do much about the FT shooting but  1 missing 3 pointer plus 2 missing 2s(7pts) made up for the extra 6 FTM.

Hold Moore and Nickelberry to 30 pts...25pts...great D

Out reb by 10....19 works just fine

Hold Moore to 6....5 is good.

Pressure Brickus and he will give up 4 TOs....We did pressure him and while he only gave up 1 TO  the pressure worked as LaS leading 3P shooter shoots zero going 0-4...Another nice job.

Make 3s  38%.   LaS has one of the worst 3 P defenses....And did we ever...63%...far exceed

SLU TOs 11...This was the only fly in the ointment. But fortunately no harm done.  Bills 16...LaS 11..  A couple of  items here...Pts off TOs... LaS 2 extra pts...In the 1st half when the game was still in contention the Bills only had 6 TOs.  While the TOs didn't matter in this game  and 16 is better than 18, it is still too many. We need to tamp this down to around 11 for the upcoming games.

And finally from @HoosierPal

15 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

Bills by 20. Angry but focused team. 

The Wiz...If ALL my numbers come to be in the LaS report.... Then you will be correct. ....And the numbers came to be and far exceeded surpassing my target and even HPs optimistic outlook.

Five of the 16 turnovers were over the last 11 possessions when the game was well in hand. We had 69 possessions so only 11 turnovers in the first 58. That kept the turnover rate to that point below 19% which is acceptable. 
 

What I liked about it was there were no illegal screens and only one charge if I’m remembering it right. Errors when trying to make plays are different from just dumb or out of control ones.

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7 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

Five of the 16 turnovers were over the last 11 possessions when the game was well in hand. We had 69 possessions so only 11 turnovers in the first 58. That kept the turnover rate to that point below 19% which is acceptable. 
 

What I liked about it was there were no illegal screens and only one charge if I’m remembering it right. Errors when trying to make plays are different from just dumb or out of control ones.

I agree with you... The TOs were a very minor part of an outstanding game... As you mention, they did hit my 11 TOs  in the the first 84% of the possessions. 

Just like to see them develop good habits in this important area even when the game is decided. 

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33 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

Five of the 16 turnovers were over the last 11 possessions when the game was well in hand. We had 69 possessions so only 11 turnovers in the first 58. That kept the turnover rate to that point below 19% which is acceptable. 
 

What I liked about it was there were no illegal screens and only one charge if I’m remembering it right. Errors when trying to make plays are different from just dumb or out of control ones.

we set so many worthless screens that dont even come close to touching a defender i am not sure i would pay attention to that stat.   worst team of screen setters probably in billiken history.   rickma likely having panic attacks in heaven over watching that aspect of our games.  

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15 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

we set so many worthless screens that dont even come close to touching a defender i am not sure i would pay attention to that stat.   worst team of screen setters probably in billiken history.   rickma likely having panic attacks in heaven over watching that aspect of our games.  

Maybe Fords manhood is bigger than RM

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One more thing ----- talking about halftime adjustments, not on\ly did Jack Clark NOT score in the second half, he could only muster three shots.  Nesbitt and Thatch were magnificent.  Go back and watch the second half if you can.  Now, the counter to this was Nesbitt also not scoring, and Moore being the go to guy, but the effort on Clark was truly outstanding.

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11 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

we set so many worthless screens that dont even come close to touching a defender i am not sure i would pay attention to that stat.   worst team of screen setters probably in billiken history.   rickma likely having panic attacks in heaven over watching that aspect of our games.  

This is sooo true. My biggest gripe on offense and defense.
GJ got screened off repeatedly vs SB. Seemed like every SB guard was half a body ahead of his defender  with every screen. That was how they had so many good 2pt possessions.

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and it isnt just the screen setters.  it's the player with the ball's responsibility to guide his man into that screen.   he has to dribble right off the screener's hip.    if he circles around the screen, as billiken booster says, the defender can easily get around the screen and continue to defend.   

if the dribbler indeed guides his defender into that screen, he forces the switch, which then makes the smaller defender have to guard the rolling big that set that screen.  the guard typically has an easy pass and the screener (assuming he caught the pass cleanly) has a clear path to score.   

of course the screener also has to roll correctly.   it drives me crazy when i see that screener turn his back to the ball to go to the basket.   think of it this way, the dribbler tells the screener as he goes by the screen to roll with the shoulder the dribbler just went by.  this also keeps that switching defender on the screener's backside. 

one of the best fundamental rickma taught was the pick and roll.   if done correctly it is pretty much undefendable by the two defenders involved in the play.  it will require secondary defenders to "help" which of course then that will leave open someone on the wings or in the corner to pass to for open shots. 

karl malone and john stockton are in the basketball hall of fame because of their ability to run the pick and roll.  oldest and most successful play of all time.  

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All you need to review is how Walter Kessler and Osun Osunniyi did it to us to understand the fundamental look of it all.  As I watch more and more of the Billikens, I come to the conclusion that Ford doesn't really teach that concept or use it.  Ford can go ballistic at times but for all the misuses of screens, he doesn't bother.  So I'm not sure it's that big of a thing to him.

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This is the most effective pick and roll team I can remember SLU having. RickMa didn't even like running pick and rolls at SLU until Porter Moser convinced him to try it because the players were having trouble picking up Rick's passing game motion.

There is not just one way to run a pick and roll. When Okoro or Linssen roll the opposite way of Yuri, it is because they are going to seal the defender for a post up (rather than the traditional role). We have scored countless times off this play. 

Our offense involves a Yuri pick and roll on almost every play and that has led to us scoring 79 points a game. I have trouble believing that the coaching staff doesn't spend time teaching the most important part of our offense. 

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