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The Wiz's Friday Forecast


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2 hours ago, Fraz said:

I personally have a hard time believing we have > 50% chance to Dance if we don’t make the championship but this is why we have the Wiz

At the start of the season, we were the best team in A-10...during most of the season we were the best team in the A-10....we are the best team in the A-10 now...that isn't me talking...that is what the numbers are showing.   Finishing 4th in a conference where no team played the same amount of games or even played one another, is good enough..... Meaning,  winning the conference this year is less important....which also means the seeding on the tourney is screwed up too. To finish in the top 2 , especially if the other team is the "home" team, will also be good enough.  My model is very close to the net tool ....however, one thing mine is missing,  is the category of subjective...which can be as high as 15%.  The Net tool is much more transparent than models from previous years...BUT... there is this subjective cloud that is used for "corrective" purposes.  "Corrective" usually spells doom for mid majors, however I think this year at least part of the cloud will be used to fix Covid injustices. The NCAA is looking for "deserving " teams.   I think if we win 3 games,  part of that cloud may float our way.   Also, this is a team of momentum...3 wins would not be that difficult to turn into 4 wins  just on the energy alone.

You gotta Bill-ieve.

If we win 3 games, we will be back to Xmas eve ...our previous peak.....and that might mean another month of Bills basketball.

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17 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

At the start of the season, we were the best team in A-10...during most of the season we were the best team in the A-10....we are the best team in the A-10 now...that isn't me talking...that is what the numbers are showing.   Finishing 4th in a conference where no team played the same amount of games or even played one another, is good enough..... Meaning,  winning the conference this year is less important....which also means the seeding on the tourney is screwed up too. To finish in the top 2 , especially if the other team is the "home" team, will also be good enough.  My model is very close to the net tool ....however, one thing mine is missing,  is the category of subjective...which can be as high as 15%.  The Net tool is much more transparent than models from previous years...BUT... there is this subjective cloud that is used for "corrective" purposes.  "Corrective" usually spells doom for mid majors, however I think this year at least part of the cloud will be used to fix Covid injustices. The NCAA is looking for "deserving " teams.   I think if we win 3 games,  part of that cloud may float our way.   Also, this is a team of momentum...3 wins would not be that difficult to turn into 4 wins  just on the energy alone.

You gotta Bill-ieve.

If we win 3 games, we will be back to Xmas eve ...our previous peak.....and that might mean another month of Bills basketball.

If we win three games we will be an automatic qualifier.

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1 minute ago, gister said:

If we win three games we will be an automatic qualifier.

3 wins would not be that difficult to turn into 4 wins

You know ,  I meant to write... turn 2 into 3 ....but I think will leave it the way I wrote it.. Beware 1st round Big Dance opponent....you are doomed..

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How do I apply to give more reactions in a day? 8:22am Eastern and I’m out of reactions??

Great analysis, TheWiz, although I think you might be shortchanging the Joeys a little. Rarely do you see a team catch lightning in a bottle the way they have since Daly’s return. I guess you have to stick to the numbers as the lightning in a bottle phenomenom is difficult to quantify, but the Joeys are the scariest team with a lousy record I’ve seen going into a post-season.

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5 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

How do I apply to give more reactions in a day? 8:22am Eastern and I’m out of reactions??

Great analysis, TheWiz, although I think you might be shortchanging the Joeys a little. Rarely do you see a team catch lightning in a bottle the way they have since Daly’s return. I guess you have to stick to the numbers as the lightning in a bottle phenomenom is difficult to quantify, but the Joeys are the scariest team with a lousy record I’ve seen going into a post-season.

As I pointed out above, St. J has the better trend line.  ...playing better recently than LaS.  I think my model has evened things up by going EVEN.  That is more aggressive than Vegas which is showing LaS by 2.5 pts. They are sticking more to the... LaS is the slightly  better team overall....even though they haven't shown it lately.

Should be a good game.

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35 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

How do I apply to give more reactions in a day? 8:22am Eastern and I’m out of reactions??

Great analysis, TheWiz, although I think you might be shortchanging the Joeys a little. Rarely do you see a team catch lightning in a bottle the way they have since Daly’s return. I guess you have to stick to the numbers as the lightning in a bottle phenomenom is difficult to quantify, but the Joeys are the scariest team with a lousy record I’ve seen going into a post-season.

i believe if you are a donor to billikens.com you are awarded extra reactions.  not sure of that, but maybe steve can weigh in.   we should all be donors to the best sports messageboard in the world to keep it alive.  

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In March 1988, me and the posse got up and busted azz to hustle to Indianapolis to see the #3 seed Billikens play the #6 seed Detroit Titans in a noon game at Market Square Arena.  The Titans were 5 and 22 and coming in on a seven-game losing streak.  Monroe was a junior, Roland Gray was a junior, Bonner was a sophomore.  Overall it was a bad year as we finished at 14 and 14 overall with arguably the three best players in SLU history to that point.  Mercy was led by Guard Archie Tullos and they beat us 66 to 63.  There was the possibility of Detroit being the MWC rep that year with a seven-win record but Xavier destroyed them in the title game 122 to 96 after they upset Evansville 75 to 74.  

That feeling sat dormant for 26 years until Bonaventure hit that last shot three at Barclays in 2014.  Bonaventure was ninth in the A10 that year; we were first.  It is one thing to lose but it is far more demoralizing to lose to underdogs of this nature which is what St. Joe's would be.

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1 hour ago, billiken_roy said:

i believe if you are a donor to billikens.com you are awarded extra reactions.  not sure of that, but maybe steve can weigh in.   we should all be donors to the best sports messageboard in the world to keep it alive.  

You're right, was thinking about this last night when I saw the "donor" notations on poster's IDs. Where's the link to donate?

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2 minutes ago, billikenbill said:

You're right, was thinking about this last night when I saw the "donor" notations on poster's IDs. Where's the link to donate?

send steve a private message and he can line you up.   plus you can ask then what the reaction benefit is exactly.

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So, follow up question- in the profile, it says “days won” what does that mean?

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I am a donor but I still only have 3 reactions per day. I think there is a certain minimum donation that has to be met to get bonus reactions. 
 

(My donation didn’t meet the criteria)

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Next up on a trek to Friday is St. J / UMass.

I have UMass  over St. J by 4 as I did in the original post above.....

On the surface this seems relatively easy... a 13th seed playing a 5 seed....This is borne out by the overall grade  of B-  ( UMass ) to C- (St.J)...again seemingly an easy pick....UNTIL we look at the trend line ...UMass again comes in as a B- team but so does St. J.  What this means is that  UMass is the better team but recently both teams have been playing about equal.

A factor that tips the game to UMass is that St. J is missing 2 guards including Forrest who is a 2nd or 3rd guard.  This  issue is magnified by the fact that this is the 2nd game in 2 days for St. J. , so depth becomes a little more important.

Again, on the surface this should be a relatively easy pick  but St. J will make a game of it and then probably fade in the 2nd half...... but if they can stay close till the end .....it could become a coin toss.

 

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