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SLU's NET as of 1/13/19:  61.  Other A10 NET's:  VCU 52, Davidson 67, Dayton 69, URI 130, Geo. Mason 143, Duquesne 160, St. Joe's 170, UMass 181, St. Bona 185, Richmond 210, Fordham 225, LaSalle 267, Geo. Washington 279. 

SLU's RPI is 62;   Other A10 RPI's of relevance:  VCU 28, Davidson 37, Dayton 72. 

Other SLU ratings:  kenpom:  88, Sagarin 88.

The A10 has regressed this season in Conference RPI, is only 12th, behind the #6 American, #7 PAC-12 (a Power 5), #8 MAC, #9 WCC, #10 Ivy, and #11 Southern.  For Missouri Valley fans, the MVC is #14, with C-USA at #13.

Conclusion:  Win in Brooklyn or Bust?  A #12 Conference RPI has the markings of a one bid (Juan Bid) league.

As for the next game vs. Fordham, Sagarin has SLU as a 7 point road favorite over the Fordham Rams (9-7, 0-3).  Fordham is 8-3 at historic Rose Hill Gym.

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Not so fast Bay Area Bill. It depends on how well we do in the remaining games of the conference. I think this is not likely to happen but just for the sake of making an argument, suppose we are undefeated in conference play but lose the championship very closely. In that case I believe we would probably make the NCAA. Do I think we are going to waltz through the conference undefeated? No, I do not, but it is a nice thought isn't it.

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In the Conference NET, the A10 fares a bit better, 10th overall, not in its usual spot, but better than the RPI.  The A10 ranks behind the #8 MAC and #9 WCC.  The MVC is down the list at #15.  I'm afraid that road loss to SIU is looking worse.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conferencenet

 

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whats better for SLU and the NET?  hope UD and davidson keeps winning all their games, so if we beat those two it looks better?   Or does it not matter?

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2 minutes ago, wgstl said:

whats better for SLU and the NET?  hope UD and davidson keeps winning all their games, so if we beat those two it looks better?   Or does it not matter?

the only thing we can control at this point is to just win.   i am not even sure how that helps as we dont recognize how the net even remotely works yet.   for example, last night pitt beats florida state.  granted we lost to both, but we came close to pitt.   seems like at least this is a draw to our net, maybe since we came close to pitt it helps.   

no we lost 2 spots in the net last night.   

it will be tough gaining 20+ places to get us an at large spot.  

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57 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

In the Conference NET, the A10 fares a bit better, 10th overall, not in its usual spot, but better than the RPI.  The A10 ranks behind the #8 MAC and #9 WCC.  The MVC is down the list at #15.  I'm afraid that road loss to SIU is looking worse.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/conferencenet

 

The MAC is buoyed by Buffalo, and the WCC by Gonzaga.  In years past, the A-10 got propped up by Xavier or Temple.  It is hard getting a high rating without a highly ranked team.  A highly ranked team also provides matchups for the rest of the conference teams to play against helping every other team's SOS.

Just look at the MVC now that Wichita State is gone.

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Just need to go 15-3 in conference or better and our NET will be fine.

It's gone up a tad since conference play started but it's not going to move materially when you beat bad teams. It'll move for real when we beat teams like Davidson, Dayton etc. and go at least 6-3 on the road which is what a 15-3 conference record requires.

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55 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

the only thing we can control at this point is to just win.   i am not even sure how that helps as we dont recognize how the net even remotely works yet.   for example, last night pitt beats florida state.  granted we lost to both, but we came close to pitt.   seems like at least this is a draw to our net, maybe since we came close to pitt it helps.   

no we lost 2 spots in the net last night.   

it will be tough gaining 20+ places to get us an at large spot.  

The reason we dropped two spots is that Pitt was ranked 65 and jumped to 52. Clemson was ranked 63 and "jumped" to 59, likely related to the Syracuse/Duke result. Either way, Pitt's jump makes perfect sense and Clemson was more rounding error than anything material.

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1 hour ago, wgstl said:

whats better for SLU and the NET?  hope UD and davidson keeps winning all their games, so if we beat those two it looks better?   Or does it not matter?

We really need Dayton, LaSalle, St. Joes, RI and Duquesne to win as much as possible.  Those are the teams we play twice.  

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I really don't get the Dayton love.

Lunardi has Dayton as the lone A10 team in as a 12 seed. VCU in the Next Four Out category. 

And the updated NET heading into a big week of hoops:

55 . VCU
63 . SLU
66 . Davidson
73 . Dayton

131 . URI
143 . George Mason
156 . Duq
170 . St. Joseph's
181 . UMass
184 . SBU

210 . Richmond
226 . Fordham
267 . La Salle
279 . GW

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Those NET ratings don't take last night's games into account.

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before yesterdays games:

 

there were 21 conferences that do not have a top 40 NET team.   i.e. 21 automatic berths to the ncaa tourney.   

there are 11 conferences represented in the top 40 teams.   i.e. 40 more likely bids made up of both automatic and at large bids.

assuming no upsets in the 11 conferences that represent the top 40 teams in their respective conference tourney's, that would leave 7 bubble teams that would get bids.   i.e. at this time it behooves the billikens to get under that 47 rankings in the NET.

yes occasionally the committee will shank a worthy top 47 team or two and go with a lesser ranked team.  but that doesnt mean they would get a 60 NET ranking which is where the top A10 teams are currently hanging out.   

just saying.  

for the record, 

here are the likely multibid conferences:

AAC - Houston, UCF and Cincy

ACC - Virginia, Duke, Virginia Tech, UNC, NC State, Louisville, and Florida State

Big 12 - Texas Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and TCU

Big East - Marquette, Villanova, St John's, and Seton Hall

Big 10 Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio State

Mountain West - Nevada, and Utah State

SEC - Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU and Miss State

the following conferences only have one worthy team at this time in the season:

MAC - Buffalo

PAC-12 Washington

Southern Conference - Wooford

West Coast - Gonzaga

Bold indicates the Billikens beat

 

 

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After last night's 3 point Win/escape in The Bronx, SLU's NET fell to 67.  Other A10 NET's of note:  VCU 55, Dayton 73, Davidson 75.  SLU's next opponent, St. Joseph's has a NET of 163.

Per a pure following of the NET, the A10 would be a One Bid (Juan Bid) league, and it isn't even close to having 2 NCAA teams.  The NCAA would cut off at #49 Syracuse, with #50 Arizona being the first team OUT.  Of course, that will never happen, as a Lipscomb (NET 46) would be OUT, as the Atlantic Sun will not get 2 NCAA teams.  Liberty at 44 has the best NET in the Atlantic Sun.

This new NET looks like further gerrymandering for the Power 5, extended by 2.  The Big 10 would have 10 NCAA Tournament teams, the ACC 8, SEC 7, Big XII 6.  Other multi-bid leagues would be the American 4, Big East 4, WCC 2 (#6 Gonzaga and #40 San Francisco), and Mountain West 2.

The Missouri Valley is way down, with Conference NET of 15 to the A10's 10.  The only Valley NCAA team would be the automatic bid, with Loyola Chicago having the best NET in the Valley at 105.  This being said, if the NET is strictly followed, the only A10 NCAA team would also be its automatic bid team.

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10 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

After last night's 3 point Win/escape in The Bronx, SLU's NET fell to 67.  Other A10 NET's of note:  VCU 55, Dayton 73, Davidson 75.  SLU's next opponent, St. Joseph's has a NET of 163.

Per a pure following of the NET, the A10 would be a One Bid (Juan Bid) league, and it isn't even close to having 2 NCAA teams.  The NCAA would cut off at #49 Syracuse, with #50 Arizona being the first team OUT.  Of course, that will never happen, as a Lipscomb (NET 46) would be OUT, as the Atlantic Sun will not get 2 NCAA teams.  Liberty at 44 has the best NET in the Atlantic Sun.

This new NET looks like further gerrymandering for the Power 5, extended by 2.  The Big 10 would have 10 NCAA Tournament teams, the ACC 8, SEC 7, Big XII 6.  Other multi-bid leagues would be the American 4, Big East 4, WCC 2 (#6 Gonzaga and #40 San Francisco), and Mountain West 2.

The Missouri Valley is way down, with Conference NET of 15 to the A10's 10.  The only Valley NCAA team would be the automatic bid, with Loyola Chicago having the best NET in the Valley at 105.  This being said, if the NET is strictly followed, the only A10 NCAA team would also be its automatic bid team.

so we win on the road and our NET continues to drop.  thus as i have been saying for weeks.   the strength of our A10 brethern will make it near impossible to get into a at large or even a bubble position even if we win the regular season title of the A10 

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5 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

so we win on the road and our NET continues to drop.  thus as i have been saying for weeks.   the strength of our A10 brethern will make it near impossible to get into a at large or even a bubble position even if we win the regular season title of the A10 

I wonder if our NET would have dropped had we won by the max margin, 10 pts

 

Edit: also, I hesitate to say the NET is biased against us (and other non-P6 teams) because it ranks us 20 points better than Kenpom. And 30 places higher than Sagarin. If anything, it looks like it’s biased towards us 

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Just now, billiken_roy said:

so we win on the road and our NET continues to drop.  thus as i have been saying for weeks.   the strength of our A10 brethern will make it near impossible to get into a at large or even a bubble position even if we win the regular season title of the A10 

We've also played 2 of the 3 bottom teams in the league, and 3 of the 6 worst. Only URI (5th) has been one that won't hurt our number so far. And we play a middle-A10 team on Friday that's dropping quickly. So all 4 of our games against the other 3 best teams are still to be played.

Then again, we still have La Salle again, Richmond, and GW.

We shouldn't drop *too* much if we continue to win. But we're not going to keep getting lucky enough to pull out these close ones.

Roundabout way of saying that the NET isn't our ticket. We have to win the A10 Tournament.

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Dayton and VCU are playing against one another tonight. This game will change the NET results for the top of A10.

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10 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

so we win on the road and our NET continues to drop.  thus as i have been saying for weeks.   the strength of our A10 brethern will make it near impossible to get into a at large or even a bubble position even if we win the regular season title of the A10 

Agreed.  Plus, winning by small margins, escapes, even on the road, evidently doesn't help either.

Whether the A10 will get at least a morsel of traditional deference and at least 2 NCAA teams, the auto bid and 1 at large, such as the regular season conference champion if different than the A10 Tourney Champion is unknown at this point and remains to be seen.

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22 minutes ago, GBL_Bills said:

I wonder if our NET would have dropped had we won by the max margin, 10 pts

 

Edit: also, I hesitate to say the NET is biased against us (and other non-P6 teams) because it ranks us 20 points better than Kenpom. And 30 places higher than Sagarin. If anything, it looks like it’s biased towards us 

This. It's how we are winning. If we beat these teams better than projected, then our ranking  will go up. We keep winning close games to bad teams. It's not a coincidence that the teams we keep playing move up after playing us. 

Below is a high level explanation on how they calculate the net rankings. Everyone gets stuck on just the 10 point margin when that's just a part of the calculation. If you could teams out, your ranking goes up.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.backingthepack.com/platform/amp/nc-state-basketball/2018/12/12/18137613/ncaa-net-rankings-college-basketball-tournament-nc-state-acc

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3 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Agreed.  Plus, winning by small margins, escapes, even on the road, evidently doesn't help either.

Whether the A10 will get at least a morsel of traditional deference and at least 2 NCAA teams, the auto bid and 1 at large, such as the regular season conference champion if different than the A10 Tourney Champion is unknown at this point and remains to be seen.

so you think a 10 point win vs a 3 point win would have made a substantial difference?   i dont. 

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10 minutes ago, Old guy said:

Dayton and VCU are playing against one another tonight. This game will change the NET results for the top of A10.

It looks like the only A10 school that has a shot at an At Large is VCU.  So I'm for VCU winning all but one more game, and then getting dumped late in the tourney.

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2 minutes ago, billiken_roy said:

so you think a 10 point win vs a 3 point win would have made a substantial difference?   i dont. 

I think we need to consult The Wiz.  I'm still trying to figure out this new NET, am basically parroting what I've read.

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10 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

FWIW, SLU's RPI is 56, 11 points better than its NET.

This has to do with date it was calculated.

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It is true that you can't play really crappy teams and beat them by 3 points and expect your rankings to improve. To expect otherwise is insane. To further that point, while we are 4-0 in A-10 play, we haven't had an easy win yet and our rankings have dropped accordingly. 

The NET ABSOLUTELY cares about margin of victory (although they cap it at 10 points) but the NET also includes an efficiency statistic which is of course better if you win a game by 25 points instead of by 3 points. The Bills need to not only win games down the stretch but it would be really helpful if they played better and won the games convincingly. 

An at large bid is still very much in play so long as we go 15-3 or better in conference. It is even more in play if we don't win all 15 of those games by really close margins. Let's start blowing some teams out.

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