MB73 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 He hit .285 this year. His first ten yrs he averaged .331; he's folding like a cheap lawnchair. 46 point dip. And his OBP was only .343, after all those years always over .420 or so. Only 85 runs scored after always 115+ or so. Yes, the aging slugger got his 30 HR's and 105 RBI's, still a solid productive player, and he played most all of the year, > 600 at bats, didn't get hurt, but he is not worth $ 254 M over 10 years. Aging superstars still usually hit their HR's when someone grooves a pitch, the issue is they lose that .01 of a second eyesight and cannot see the ball that is off the plate and swing at it, and their average goes down, OBP goes down. I had predicted (jbizzle look it up) .290 this yr after his .299 last year started his slide from .331. And I said .280 next year. Its coming, maybe even lower. NO WAY he plays until 2021. He is 36+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 In the post season, last year, Albert was amazing. If we had the bases loaded with no one out and Albert at the plate it didn't seem like we'd ever leave without a run.....maybe a double play scoring the runner from third...... Yesterday sucked...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 He hit .285 this year. His first ten yrs he averaged .331; he's folding like a cheap lawnchair. 46 point dip. And his OBP was only .343, after all those years always over .420 or so. Only 85 runs scored after always 115+ or so. Yes, the aging slugger got his 30 HR's and 105 RBI's, still a solid productive player, and he played most all of the year, > 600 at bats, didn't get hurt, but he is not worth $ 254 M over 10 years. Aging superstars still usually hit their HR's when someone grooves a pitch, the issue is they lose that .01 of a second eyesight and cannot see the ball that is off the plate and swing at it, and their average goes down, OBP goes down. I had predicted (jbizzle look it up) .290 this yr after his .299 last year started his slide from .331. And I said .280 next year. Its coming, maybe even lower. NO WAY he plays until 2021. He is 36+. Yea, I guess seeing the greatest player of our (my) generation play his entire career for your favorite team, the opportunity to see every one of his at bats, chase every milestone, record, etc., would have been pretty lame. Happens all the time these days. Players decline? Great point! Take out his horrible April (adjusting to the AL? slow starter now?) and his number are even better. He'll hit for a higher avg. next season I'm guessing (quick, write it down!). He was criminally underpaid for awhile, and now he'll be criminally overpaid for awhile. But yea, f*ck 'em. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 He hit .285 this year. His first ten yrs he averaged .331; he's folding like a cheap lawnchair. 46 point dip. And his OBP was only .343, after all those years always over .420 or so. Only 85 runs scored after always 115+ or so. Yes, the aging slugger got his 30 HR's and 105 RBI's, still a solid productive player, and he played most all of the year, > 600 at bats, didn't get hurt, but he is not worth $ 254 M over 10 years. Aging superstars still usually hit their HR's when someone grooves a pitch, the issue is they lose that .01 of a second eyesight and cannot see the ball that is off the plate and swing at it, and their average goes down, OBP goes down. I had predicted (jbizzle look it up) .290 this yr after his .299 last year started his slide from .331. And I said .280 next year. Its coming, maybe even lower. NO WAY he plays until 2021. He is 36+. If he retires after the 2014 season, then I will agree that he was lying about his age. If he completely falls off the map next year or in 2014, and has a terrible season at the plate, then I will agree that he was hiding his 'real' age from everybody. But I just don't see that happening. There would have been no reason that Pujols would drag out that type of contract negotiation and hold out for a 10 year deal if he was just going to fall apart after 3 seasons because he is really 4+ years older than he has stated, and then abruptly retire, leaving millions and millions of dollars on the table. And that isn't even mentioning the personal services contract he has with the Angels after he retires. Is he going to put up worse numbers in the 2nd half of his career than the first half? Of course he is! That is just a fact of life. His numbers are going to slowly degrade. However, the way I see how this season played out, he looks to still have an MVP-caliber season or two left in him. He started off this season terribly, and was below .200 into mid-May. However, after May 15th, he put up the following line: .312/.374/.589/.964, 42 2B, 29 HR, 93 RBI, 75 R Extrapolate that over an entire season, and you have the following: 58 2B, 40 HR, 127 RBI, 103 R (along with the same average marks as above.) Pretty much a typical Pujols season. And despite the slow start, he still finished 3rd in the AL in extra base hits and 2nd in doubles. He ended up with 14 more extra base hits than he had all of last year. And, he started off slow and finished up strong. Typically, older players will start off strong and peter out at the end. Just take a look at Beltran this year. Thru Jun 25th, his line was .313/.402/.590/.992 with 20 HR. After that date, he was at .230/.295/.412/.707 with 12 HR. Carlos is 35 years old. Berkman, at 35, also had a precipitous decline after a hot start last year, thought not as pronounced a decline as Beltran's. We can go round and round with this, MB. And, judging by the fact that you started this topic, it seems like you want to. It would appear that you do not want this conversation to ever die. It will be 2019, Pujols will still be playing, and you will still bring it up on this board, pointing out that he is still lying about his age and trying to point to his stats as proof. The thing is, all signs point to him having a better season next year than this. The Marimers are bringing in their fences. The Astros, who are completely terrible, are joining the AL West next year. Pujols now has a full year in the division and league under his belt. The focus on his contract will have died down, especially with Hamilton looking to get big bucks this offseason. I have mentioned this in regards to this topic many times, but there are two main reasons why I believe Pujols isn't lying about his age. One, he would be in breach of contract if it was ever discovered. All one has to do is look at the Fausto Carmona and Leo Nunez situations that occurred over the past year. They were discovered to have taken on false identifications, got into trouble with the Dominican government and had their contracts voided. Both teams brought them back, but they had to deal with MLB suspensions and sign new deals with the teams. Two, Pujols has obtained citizenship in the US. He became a citizen in 2007. If it was discoverd that he used false documents when becoming a citizen, he would be in violation of the law. While I don't think he would have his citizenship revoked, it would still be a possibility, and there would be potential fines and penalties involved. If he knew that he was lying about his age, why become a citizen while you are still an active player? He also was playing in the majors when the Patriot Act was passed, and when many Dominican players were discovered to be of different ages. His name did not come up then. MB, he is going to play out his contract. He is not retiring after 3 years. It is true, he is not going to be as productive with the Angels over that time as he was with the Cardinals. No matter how great they are, no player is going to put up their best numbers at the end of their careers than at the beginning or middle. (Unless they are Barry Bonds.) The main reason the Angels signed him to that contract is so he will hit milestones while wearing their uniform and playing in their stadium. He will be a productive first basemen/DH for them for several years going forward. He will get his 3,000th hit with them, his 500th, 600th, 700th (and maybe more) HRs with them, and perhaps even set the all-time marks in 2B and RBI with them. That is why they paid the man his money. Not because they think he will hit .330 over that span, but because they can have him wear the Angels hat when he goes into the Hall of Fame. So, MB, you have gotten your wish. I have made a Taj-length post in response to you. We get to carry on this conversation YET AGAIN. But, remember this...I did not start this conversation. You did. You used to complain that I would always bring up Pujols (or Duke) when responding to you. However, in the past year, you have been the only one to bring him up, all in an effort to bait me. I thought we were done with this back when he signed the contract last winter. But, I guess I should have known better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 If he retires after the 2014 season, then I will agree that he was lying about his age. If he completely falls off the map next year or in 2014, and has a terrible season at the plate, then I will agree that he was hiding his 'real' age from everybody. But I just don't see that happening. There would have been no reason that Pujols would drag out that type of contract negotiation and hold out for a 10 year deal if he was just going to fall apart after 3 seasons because he is really 4+ years older than he has stated, and then abruptly retire, leaving millions and millions of dollars on the table. And that isn't even mentioning the personal services contract he has with the Angels after he retires. Is he going to put up worse numbers in the 2nd half of his career than the first half? Of course he is! That is just a fact of life. His numbers are going to slowly degrade. However, the way I see how this season played out, he looks to still have an MVP-caliber season or two left in him. He started off this season terribly, and was below .200 into mid-May. However, after May 15th, he put up the following line: .312/.374/.589/.964, 42 2B, 29 HR, 93 RBI, 75 R Extrapolate that over an entire season, and you have the following: 58 2B, 40 HR, 127 RBI, 103 R (along with the same average marks as above.) Pretty much a typical Pujols season. And despite the slow start, he still finished 3rd in the AL in extra base hits and 2nd in doubles. He ended up with 14 more extra base hits than he had all of last year. And, he started off slow and finished up strong. Typically, older players will start off strong and peter out at the end. Just take a look at Beltran this year. Thru Jun 25th, his line was .313/.402/.590/.992 with 20 HR. After that date, he was at .230/.295/.412/.707 with 12 HR. Carlos is 35 years old. Berkman, at 35, also had a precipitous decline after a hot start last year, thought not as pronounced a decline as Beltran's. We can go round and round with this, MB. And, judging by the fact that you started this topic, it seems like you want to. It would appear that you do not want this conversation to ever die. It will be 2019, Pujols will still be playing, and you will still bring it up on this board, pointing out that he is still lying about his age and trying to point to his stats as proof. The thing is, all signs point to him having a better season next year than this. The Marimers are bringing in their fences. The Astros, who are completely terrible, are joining the AL West next year. Pujols now has a full year in the division and league under his belt. The focus on his contract will have died down, especially with Hamilton looking to get big bucks this offseason. I have mentioned this in regards to this topic many times, but there are two main reasons why I believe Pujols isn't lying about his age. One, he would be in breach of contract if it was ever discovered. All one has to do is look at the Fausto Carmona and Leo Nunez situations that occurred over the past year. They were discovered to have taken on false identifications, got into trouble with the Dominican government and had their contracts voided. Both teams brought them back, but they had to deal with MLB suspensions and sign new deals with the teams. Two, Pujols has obtained citizenship in the US. He became a citizen in 2007. If it was discoverd that he used false documents when becoming a citizen, he would be in violation of the law. While I don't think he would have his citizenship revoked, it would still be a possibility, and there would be potential fines and penalties involved. If he knew that he was lying about his age, why become a citizen while you are still an active player? He also was playing in the majors when the Patriot Act was passed, and when many Dominican players were discovered to be of different ages. His name did not come up then. MB, he is going to play out his contract. He is not retiring after 3 years. It is true, he is not going to be as productive with the Angels over that time as he was with the Cardinals. No matter how great they are, no player is going to put up their best numbers at the end of their careers than at the beginning or middle. (Unless they are Barry Bonds.) The main reason the Angels signed him to that contract is so he will hit milestones while wearing their uniform and playing in their stadium. He will be a productive first basemen/DH for them for several years going forward. He will get his 3,000th hit with them, his 500th, 600th, 700th (and maybe more) HRs with them, and perhaps even set the all-time marks in 2B and RBI with them. That is why they paid the man his money. Not because they think he will hit .330 over that span, but because they can have him wear the Angels hat when he goes into the Hall of Fame. So, MB, you have gotten your wish. I have made a Taj-length post in response to you. We get to carry on this conversation YET AGAIN. But, remember this...I did not start this conversation. You did. You used to complain that I would always bring up Pujols (or Duke) when responding to you. However, in the past year, you have been the only one to bring him up, all in an effort to bait me. I thought we were done with this back when he signed the contract last winter. But, I guess I should have known better. Good God, you blew my post to hell. Hats off, bizzle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 bizzle, what the hell are the marimers? pull your head out. jeez. and i think the slow start could be attributed largely to learning new pitchers' stuff. every pitcher knows how to pitch to pujols. don't do it. however, pujols doesn't necessarily know how to hit every pitcher, at least not without some ABs against them. regardless, it's all a bunch of colon blow, because i could give a sh!t about the angels. pujols isn't even my favorite player on their team. trout is. complete fuoking badass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Actually aging doesn't explain Pujols dramatic declining walk total. It is pretty unprecedented even if you actually believe he is 36. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Can he dunk? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 Can he dunk? Only one handed and not in traffic. Come on he is 36. What do you expect? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlarry Posted October 8, 2012 Share Posted October 8, 2012 In 1995 Mickey Morandini had a line of 283/350/417 He hit 6 HR and 49 RBI. I wanted to add some more stats that mean absolutely nothing to most people. As for pujols, his best days are behind him but I think there was a reason for this years slow start. He moved to LA and a few weeks later Mrs. Albert told the world she was prego, Albert spent the next two months doing math to figure out if it was his or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Actually aging doesn't explain Pujols dramatic declining walk total. It is pretty unprecedented even if you actually believe he is 36. Agreed. Willie Mays posted his highest ever walk total at the age of 40. Hank Aaron had his most walks at the age of 38. Rickey Henderson had 118 walks at age 39 and was still posting a .400+ OBP at age 40. Ted Williams had no problems drawing walks in his late 30s and early 40s. Players don't start taking less walks just because they are getting older. That isn't really supported by any real statistical evidence. The lack of walks these past two years by Pujols is definitely puzzling. Part of it seems to derive from his lack of intentional walks these past two seasons. He went from 44 in 2009 and 38 in 2010 to 15 in 2011 and 16 this season. But he still had 69 unintentional walks in 2009 and 65 in 2010, then dropped to 46 in 2011 and 36 in 2012, which is significant. Would a different pitching approach to Pujols explain this? Or perhaps how the lineups were stacked in 2011 and 2012 in comparison with previous seasons? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetorch Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Pujols gets to bat behind the best young player since himself for the foreseeable future. He'll be fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted October 9, 2012 Author Share Posted October 9, 2012 His WS against Texas was pathetic except the one 3 hr game on Oct 22. The rest he looked like he was batting on roller skates. This yr he hit .285, 46 pts below his first 10 yr avg of 331. Weak argument using the Partiot Act and all of that, it is ridiculous, naive, he easily overcame that... he is 36+. Again, I said he'd hit .290 this yr but get his 30 and 100. He hit .285 and got his 30 and 100. I said next yr he'd hit .280... now I would say more like .275 - .278 and OBP and walks go down even more. An average IB in MLB. To boot, he is due for some injuries next yr, this yr was a miracle > 600 AB. Sure a few hit well as they age, but most do not. Spud Webb won the NBA slam dunk contest, most 5'7" do not, however. No way he was worth $ 254 M for 10 yrs, and no way the Angels really will pay that despite the latin american owner and the new TV package... there is a confidential clause in a vault somewhere, he'll play another 2 or three, that's it. No way to 2021. We are WAY better off without him rather than pay him those ridiculous figures. I wouldn;t give him $ 25M for 4 years. Mo was brilliant, even spun Pujols as the bad guy, greedy. Nobody cares. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianstl Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 His WS against Texas was pathetic except the one 3 hr game on Oct 22. The rest he looked like he was batting on roller skates. This yr he hit .285, 46 pts below his first 10 yr avg of 331. Weak argument using the Partiot Act and all of that, it is ridiculous, naive, he easily overcame that... he is 36+. Again, I said he'd hit .290 this yr but get his 30 and 100. He hit .285 and got his 30 and 100. I said next yr he'd hit .280... now I would say more like .275 - .278 and OBP and walks go down even more. An average IB in MLB. To boot, he is due for some injuries next yr, this yr was a miracle > 600 AB. Sure a few hit well as they age, but most do not. Spud Webb won the NBA slam dunk contest, most 5'7" do not, however. No way he was worth $ 254 M for 10 yrs, and no way the Angels really will pay that despite the latin american owner and the new TV package... there is a confidential clause in a vault somewhere, he'll play another 2 or three, that's it. No way to 2021. We are WAY better off without him rather than pay him those ridiculous figures. I wouldn;t give him $ 25M for 4 years. Mo was brilliant, even spun Pujols as the bad guy, greedy. Nobody cares. Who is arguing that the Cardinals should have risigned him at that dollar amount and year total? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SShoe Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Weak argument using the Partiot Act and all of that, it is ridiculous, naive, he easily overcame that... he is 36+.So what's your argument/evidence for why he is over 36? To this point, the arguments I hear are that he just looks old and he's from the Dominican, so he must be over 36. Plus, I often hear the, "somebody I know, knows this guy in the Cardinals organization who heard that the Cardinals didn't want to resign him because they knew he was older than he was saying." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I know a guy that knows a girl who's sister does his hair. He says, she says that she says that his hair is too brittle for a 33 year old. It's more like 37 year old hair. I'm with MB on this one. His walk total is down because he's swinging at more pitches and expanding his zone. As his bat speed and reaction time decreases, he needs to do the oposite. Obviously. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Who is arguing that the Cardinals should have risigned him at that dollar amount and year total? Nobody is. What I did say to MB many times prior to Pujols signing was that Pujols was going to get a long term deal like he eventually got. MB claimed that nobody was going to give Pujols a 10 year deal, or even a 7+ year deal, because everyone in MLB knew that Pujols was older that he says. I knew someone was going to pony up for what Pujols wanted, whether it was the Cards or another team. I figured that once Pujols signed the long-term deal with the Angels, we would finally be done with the constant 'Pujols age conspiracy' posts. That appears to not be the case. Now, we are back on conspiracy theories. It is only because the Angels have a Latino owner who is willing to provide cover for Pujols when he ends up retiring early. That there is a confidentiality clause locked away in a vault somewhere. The thing is, it is really easy to argue on behalf of a conspiracy theory. You don't need any proof, because all you need to do say is say, 'Everything is a lie! You are all naive sheep! I know the real truth!'. You don't need any burden of proof. All you end up doing is telling the other person to prove you wrong, to show irrefutable proof that your theory is 100% wrong. You can always feel like you've 'won' the argument, because you framed the debate within your personal context. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clock_Tower Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 Interesting read. http://mlb.sbnation.com/2011/11/21/2577356/how-old-is-albert-pujols Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GOSLU68 Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 I'd rather have A Craig and M Carpenter at first base, now; great fan of AP as an offensive threat-none better last 10 years but his defense is like find him a place to hide until we are at bat...and his base running is the delight of his own reality. Jose Oquendo is a better third base coach without Pujols and Yadier Molina runs out infield hits now that AP is out of town. Beltran was an ideal replacement the first half of the hear for the old Pujols. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted October 9, 2012 Share Posted October 9, 2012 his base running is the delight of his own reality. i'm not sure exactly what in the hell that means, but i think it's just great. i'm guessing it's like how my masturbating is the delight of my own reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony 4 Billikens Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 Everybody in prison is innocent too. Even Jerry Sandusky. McGwire was innocent his whole Cardinal career until he admitted PED use. It doesn't mean he wasn't an admirable ballplayer. Lance Armstrong used PED's but that doesn't mean he should be banned from cycling if he admits to it. Pujols' contract should be voided and then he should be a free agent at his "real" current age. Albert is still a great ballplayer. I'm sure he wants to help as many kids with downs syndrome and his church as far as the money will go. That doesn't mean Albert is the age Albert says he is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I heard that Pujols is actually 4 years younger than his stated age. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billiken Rich Posted October 10, 2012 Share Posted October 10, 2012 I heard from my local Walmart checker that Albert did one of those RealAge® calculators that showed he's only 25....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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