Excitement abounds

[Billikan]

2008-2009 SCHEDULE

WIN 11/14/08 vs. Missouri-St. Louis Chaifetz Arena 7:00 p.m. CT

WIN 11/19/08 vs. Kent State Chaifetz Arena 7:00 p.m. CT

LOSS 11/22/08 vs. Boston College Chaifetz Arena 1:00 p.m. CT

LOSS 11/25/08 at Nebraska Lincoln, Neb. 7:00 p.m. CT

WIN 11/29/08 at Detroit Mercy Detroit, Mich. 1:00 p.m. CT

LOSS 12/02/08 at Southern Illinois Carbondale, Ill. 7:00 p.m. CT

WIN 12/06/08 vs. Savannah State Chaifetz Arena 7:00 p.m. CT

WIN 12/13/08 vs. Samford Chaifetz Arena 4:00 p.m. CT

WIN 12/17/08 vs. USC Upstate Chaifetz Arena 7:00 p.m. CT

WIN 12/19/08 vs. Liberty Chaifetz Arena 7:00 p.m. CT

WIN 12/22/08 vs. DePaul Las Vegas, Nev. 7:00 p.m. CT

LOSS 12/23/08 Creighton or Fresno State Las Vegas, Nev. 6:30 p.m./9:00 p.m. CT

WIN 12/30/08 vs. UMBC Chaifetz Arena 8:00 p.m. CT

WIN 01/02/09 vs. North Carolina A&T Chaifetz Arena 7:00 p.m. CT

LOSS 01/08/09 at Xavier * Cincinnati, Ohio 7:00 p.m. CT

LOSS 01/14/09 vs. Massachusetts * Chaifetz Arena 7:00 p.m. CT

WIN 01/17/09 vs. George Washington * Chaifetz Arena TBA

LOSS 01/22/09 at Temple * Philadelphia, Pa. 7:00 p.m. CT

WIN 01/25/09 vs. Richmond * Chaifetz Arena 2:00 p.m. CT

LOSS 01/29/09 at Dayton * Dayton, Ohio 7:00 p.m. CT

WIN 01/31/09 at Fordham * Bronx, N.Y. 6:00 p.m. CT

WIN 02/04/09 vs. Duquesne * Chaifetz Arena TBA

WIN 02/08/09 at Richmond * Richmond, Va. 1:00 p.m. CT

WIN 02/11/09 vs. Charlotte * Chaifetz Arena 7:00 p.m. CT

LOSS 02/14/09 at Rhode Island * Kingston, R.I. 1:00 p.m. CT

WIN 02/18/09 vs. Saint Joseph's * Chaifetz Arena 9:00 p.m. CT

WIN 02/21/09 vs. Dayton * Chaifetz Arena TBA

WIN 02/25/09 at St. Bonaventure * St. Bonaventure, N.Y. 6:00 p.m. CT

LOSS 03/04/09 at Duquesne * Pittsburgh, Pa. 6:00 p.m. CT

WIN 03/07/09 vs. La Salle * Chaifetz Arena 7:00 p.m. CT

This would be a 20-10 regular season record, and didn't include a single "stretch" win. I don't think 20+ wins is an unreasonable expectation given this schedule.

I would be delighted if we beat Kent State-my reading of the preseason gurus indicates that they are expected to be a very good team again even though they have a new coach.

Beating DePaul would be nice but they are predicted to have a solid team.

Your list, which includes these two iffy wins does not include a single loss in a game we might be 50\50 including some road games in the conference. I sure hope you are right. My hope would be that the tougher early schedule will prepare our youngsters for conference play and we can actually beat some of the good teams you have us beating. I would not predict it but I cannot argue with your positive approach>

[davidnark]

I would be delighted if we beat Kent State-my reading of the preseason gurus indicates that they are expected to be a very good team again even though they have a new coach.

Beating DePaul would be nice but they are predicted to have a solid team.

Your list, which includes these two iffy wins does not include a single loss in a game we might be 50\50 including some road games in the conference. I sure hope you are right. My hope would be that the tougher early schedule will prepare our youngsters for conference play and we can actually beat some of the good teams you have us beating. I would not predict it but I cannot argue with your positive approach>

My understanding is that Kent State has a new coach and lost several key players; I would therefore expect us to beat them at home.

Beating DePaul is probably my biggest stretch, but I also think we have a chance to steal a win against UMass or BC at home or a young Carbondale team on the road.

I figure the margin for error is about 5 wins or losses, but based upon this schedule I would set the regular season over/under at 20 wins.

[Malibubill]

My understanding is that Kent State has a new coach and lost several key players; I would therefore expect us to beat them at home.

Beating DePaul is probably my biggest stretch, but I also think we have a chance to steal a win against UMass or BC at home or a young Carbondale team on the road.

I figure the margin for error is about 5 wins or losses, but based upon this schedule I would set the regular season over/under at 20 wins.

I hope we win 18-20 games, and I think we have a very good chance of doing so, but I will not be disappointed if we do not. I think that is a very different statement.

[davidnark]

I hope we win 18-20 games, and I think we have a very good chance of doing so, but I will not be disappointed if we do not. I think that is a very different statement.

To win less than 18 games, we would have to lose at home to some really bad teams. I would be really disappointed if it happened.

[3star_recruit]

Beating DePaul would be nice but they are predicted to have a solid team.

Not so fast my friend.

http://www.examiner.com/x-726-College-Spor...-Preview-DePaul

Fortunately for Wainwright, he still has the support of DePaul's athletic director and it doesn't appear that his job is in jeopardy - at least not yet. Unfortunately for Wainwright, his team is in for another long season.

DePaul returns only two seniors and one junior. Gone is last year's leading scorer Draelon Burns, who averaged 17.6 points, along with center Wes Green, forward Karron Clarke and guard Cliff Clinkscales. That's a lot of contributers to lose from a team that didn't play that well together to begin with.

[3star_recruit]

My understanding is that Kent State has a new coach and lost several key players; I would therefore expect us to beat them at home.

Look a little deeper. Despite the losses they are projected to finish 1st in their conference and be a borderline top 25 team. They return all but two players from last year's rotation, they bring back the conference player of the year and they managed to sneak a former top 75 recruit with a criminal record past admissions.

[billiken_roy]

If .500 is a reasonable record to expect when we're starting three seniors then using the same logic we'll finish a few games below .500 when we lose 60% of our scoring and they're replaced by three sophomores. Yet the prevailing wisdom on this board is that expectations for next year should be ratcheted up dramatically. That seems backward to me.

SIU's starting lineup is even younger than ours, they lost more production than we did, they don't have any proven scorers outside of Mullins and yet they're projected as a top 60 team. We should be a top 100 team, minimum.

The only way I see a .500 record with our schedule is if ALL of the freshmen struggle. I'm not saying that can't happen but expecting that many players handpicked by RM to flounder is incredibly pessimistic.

3 star, i hope you dont get in too much trouble for making sense.

those of you thinking this is a 500 team, please remember that we have a minimum of 6 game head start (7 if we lose to depaul and get the consolation game in vegas).

[billiken_roy]

My understanding is that Kent State has a new coach and lost several key players; I would therefore expect us to beat them at home.

Beating DePaul is probably my biggest stretch, but I also think we have a chance to steal a win against UMass or BC at home or a young Carbondale team on the road.

I figure the margin for error is about 5 wins or losses, but based upon this schedule I would set the regular season over/under at 20 wins.

to defend david's bottom line, if depaul is a loss instead of a win, fresno state is expected to be horrible this year. thus, either way we should be 1-1 in vegas.

i also agree with david that umass, bc and siu are opportunities to win. in fact if lisch shuts down rice, i think more of the chance to beat boston college than kent state.

i was extremely impressed last wednesday. the components are there to immediately be better than last year. i cannot see anyway we havent upgraded talentwise from what we lost. if rickma is indeed the great teacher and molder of lumps of coal, i dont care if these kids are just freshmen. it appears to me they have the talent and size to fill our needs.

if we were depending on freshmen to be the focal point (think larry hughes) of course our current freshmen arent that. but we have 3 seniors that are fearless and will step up to take and make those shots. our freshmen need to defend and rebound and minimize mistakes. think about it. that is rickma's M.O.

i cant see any reason this team is 500 or less. i picked 18 wins, but i wouldnt be surprised if it is more like 23.

[kshoe]

to defend david's bottom line, if depaul is a loss instead of a win, fresno state is expected to be horrible this year. thus, either way we should be 1-1 in vegas.

This is the 2nd post in a row you intimated that Fresno will be horrible. I admit I have absolutely no knowledge of what they have coming back, etc. and yes they were bad last year but 2 years ago they were 22 and something and ranked in the top 100. All I am saying is I wouldn't exactly call a neutral site game against a program like Fresno a lock for a win.

That being said I tend to believe that we are closer to a 20 win team than a 15 win team.

[billiken_roy]

This is the 2nd post in a row you intimated that Fresno will be horrible. I admit I have absolutely no knowledge of what they have coming back, etc. and yes they were bad last year but 2 years ago they were 22 and something and ranked in the top 100. All I am saying is I wouldn't exactly call a neutral site game against a program like Fresno a lock for a win.

That being said I tend to believe that we are closer to a 20 win team than a 15 win team.

fresno was a final rpi of 243 last year. unless they have an incoming class far superior to ours, i cant see them as an expected L.

[Pistol]

To win less than 18 games, we would have to lose at home to some really bad teams. I would be really disappointed if it happened.

Freshman-lheavy teams are unpredictable. Before the exhibition game, I thought we'd win 16 and stay just above .500. I might say 18 now, winning a couple more conference games.

[3star_recruit]

This is the 2nd post in a row you intimated that Fresno will be horrible. I admit I have absolutely no knowledge of what they have coming back, etc.

Since you mentioned it:

http://www.wjactv.com/cbask/17932728/detail.html

FRESNO STATE: Back for his fourth year at Fresno State, head coach Steve Cleveland might prefer to be hiding out in the city the Browns, Indians and Cavaliers call home after he gets a good look at what he has to deal with this season. The coach has lost the bulk of his scoring from a year ago when the Bulldogs were sixth in the WAC with their 68.8 ppg.

FSU lived and died out on the perimeter in 2007-08 as they placed first in the conference and 39th in the nation with 8.3 three-point baskets per game, so where those points will come from this season is still a mystery. The lone returning starter for the Bulldogs is senior guard Dwight O'Neil who averaged 8.8 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.8 assists for a team that finished just 13-19 and was 2-11 on the road.

O'Neil is listed as a returning starter for the Bulldogs almost out of desperation because while it is true that he was in the lineup in a dozen games, he appeared in a total of just 14 contests, shooting a mere 36 percent from the field and 53.3 percent at the charity stripe.

[cheeseman]

Those of you arguing that we will be a 20 plus win team have good points so I want to say I hope you are correct. There are still two things that make me somewhat cautious: 1. How will the freshmen respond on the road and can TL and KL really carry the load consistently? I am not doubting Barry being able to add something but he really did not do much last year. 2. RM's continued dampening of expectations - you could say that he is only doing this to cover himself but he did it last year and many said all he was doing was covering himself and you saw how the year went. He has been honest about everything up to date with his readings on this team since he got here so why disregard him now?

I can see both sides of this argument but I guess that year under Brad when we lost 21 games and had losses to the Bonnies, Dukes, SEMO and some non conference opponent at home which sent most of us over the cliff - can not remember the school - still is a little too fresh in my mind. I hope you are all right.

[Clock_Tower]

Those of you arguing that we will be a 20 plus win team have good points so I want to say I hope you are correct. There are still two things that make me somewhat cautious: 1. How will the freshmen respond on the road and can TL and KL really carry the load consistently? I am not doubting Barry being able to add something but he really did not do much last year. 2. RM's continued dampening of expectations - you could say that he is only doing this to cover himself but he did it last year and many said all he was doing was covering himself and you saw how the year went. He has been honest about everything up to date with his readings on this team since he got here so why disregard him now?

I can see both sides of this argument but I guess that year under Brad when we lost 21 games and had losses to the Bonnies, Dukes, SEMO and some non conference opponent at home which sent most of us over the cliff - can not remember the school - still is a little too fresh in my mind. I hope you are all right.

If TL and KL don't carry this team, then they will down in Billiken history as merely above average guys who bridged the gap for awhile. I don't think that will be the case. Last year was more than the learning curve of a new coach/offense/defense - instead, it was playing without real talent. Still, TL improved his overall game last year (cut down on turnovers, better positioning and better decision with and without the ball) and KL played well despite being doubled and tripled at times. They simply had little help.

In college ball, 2 good senior guards should be able to carry the team for quite a few games. As has been noted, we are only asking the 7 freshman to get the ball to KL and TL (whether by dribbling/passing at the point or by rebounding/passing at the 4/5) and also to contribute as additional role players in scoring offense/defense. We are not looking to them as our "go to guys" at critical times of each game. KM will not be the first freshman college point guard and is replacing DP and not Marquee Perry. Similarly, BT will be replacing BH and not IV. After losing 25 pounds and coming into his final season, BE should double his ppg from 6 yo 12.

I am not saying we will win 25 games and get to the Sweet 16 or this season will be a failure but to say we will be .500 and keep complaining about our youth (and then ignore the youth on other teams like Carbondale) is not realistic. 20 wins in today's college game (especially with our schedule) is not the mark of an awesome team. 3 Star is correct, next year (w/o TL, KL and BE) will be a significant test where will be need a few of these freshmen - or next year's freshmen - to defend the other team's best player (KL this year) and to score at critical moments (both TL and KL).

[ACE]

If TL and KL don't carry this team, then they will down in Billiken history as merely above average guys who bridged the gap for awhile. I don't think that will be the case. Last year was more than the learning curve of a new coach/offense/defense - instead, it was playing without real talent. Still, TL improved his overall game last year (cut down on turnovers, better positioning and better decision with and without the ball) and KL played well despite being doubled and tripled at times. They simply had little help.

In college ball, 2 good senior guards should be able to carry the team for quite a few games. As has been noted, we are only asking the 7 freshman to get the ball to KL and TL (whether by dribbling/passing at the point or by rebounding/passing at the 4/5) and also to contribute as additional role players in scoring offense/defense. We are not looking to them as our "go to guys" at critical times of each game. KM will not be the first freshman college point guard and is replacing DP and not Marquee Perry. Similarly, BT will be replacing BH and not IV. After losing 25 pounds and coming into his final season, BE should double his ppg from 6 yo 12.

I am not saying we will win 25 games and get to the Sweet 16 or this season will be a failure but to say we will be .500 and keep complaining about our youth (and then ignore the youth on other teams like Carbondale) is not realistic. 20 wins in today's college game (especially with our schedule) is not the mark of an awesome team. 3 Star is correct, next year (w/o TL, KL and BE) will be a significant test where will be need a few of these freshmen - or next year's freshmen - to defend the other team's best player (KL this year) and to score at critical moments (both TL and KL).

I agree with much of your analysis and I think Barry will be better, but I would be very surprised if he doubled his ppg. I hope you are right.

Some fans might be overly cautious about what our freshmen can do because our program doesn't have a long history of freshmen who make an impact. Typically our freshmen either sit the bench or are role players. But if you look around college basketball, it seems more and more freshmen play a bigger role. We haven't had impact freshmen since KL and TL. This year's freshmen are coming into a better situation because TL and KL are now the veteran anchors. The freshmen will be asked to play a big role (especially Mitchell), but they won't be expected to carry the scoring load. If Barry can step up and get us 8-10ppg and one of the freshmen can also provide 8-10 ppg, then hopefully scoring won't be as big of a problem.

[kshoe]

fresno was a final rpi of 243 last year. unless they have an incoming class far superior to ours, i cant see them as an expected L.

There is a difference between an expected loss and a guaranteed win which is what you are calling them. I think we'd win the game, and 3-Star's post indicates their expectations aren't high, but its still neutral court and they are still a decent program. If a team can drop from an RPI of mid 80s to 243 in one year they certainly could be expected to increase by a similar amount if things click.

You want to count the South Carolina Upstates of the world as guaranteed wins, that is fine. But counting any road or neutral court game against a mid major program like Fresno or Detroit as a guaranteed win is a mistake, no matter what their RPI was last year or what articles predict them to do this year.

[billiken_roy]

Those of you arguing that we will be a 20 plus win team have good points so I want to say I hope you are correct. There are still two things that make me somewhat cautious: 1. How will the freshmen respond on the road and can TL and KL really carry the load consistently? I am not doubting Barry being able to add something but he really did not do much last year. 2. RM's continued dampening of expectations - you could say that he is only doing this to cover himself but he did it last year and many said all he was doing was covering himself and you saw how the year went. He has been honest about everything up to date with his readings on this team since he got here so why disregard him now?

your first apprehension, lisch and liddell, i would agree if our replacements didnt seem to better what left. it is pretty obvious that we have sufficent talent to better what left even with luke and danny having nice seasons.

your second apprehension, barry eberhardt. isnt your own statement somewhat conflicted? you wonder what he can add and then state he basically gave us little last year. he now is a year older, wiser and reportedly in better physical condition. one would think he would be at least marginally better.

your third apprehension - rickma just covering himself or is he geniunely worried. let's not forget he spent all of december trying to pound a square peg in a round hole for whatever reason. at least a couple of unneeded losses in december imo. and who knows what the first gw game would have actually yielded if he had not enacted a marine boot camp over xmas break and exhausted the team. my point is rickma himself pushed down our results last year from what they could have been imo.

now he has his players, he will do all he can to maximize his results from day one.

[billiken_roy]

There is a difference between an expected loss and a guaranteed win which is what you are calling them. I think we'd win the game, and 3-Star's post indicates their expectations aren't high, but its still neutral court and they are still a decent program. If a team can drop from an RPI of mid 80s to 243 in one year they certainly could be expected to increase by a similar amount if things click.

You want to count the South Carolina Upstates of the world as guaranteed wins, that is fine. But counting any road or neutral court game against a mid major program like Fresno or Detroit as a guaranteed win is a mistake, no matter what their RPI was last year or what articles predict them to do this year.

well i will bet you a beer on the fresno state game. i get the billikens.

[cheeseman]

If TL and KL don't carry this team, then they will down in Billiken history as merely above average guys who bridged the gap for awhile. I don't think that will be the case. Last year was more than the learning curve of a new coach/offense/defense - instead, it was playing without real talent. Still, TL improved his overall game last year (cut down on turnovers, better positioning and better decision with and without the ball) and KL played well despite being doubled and tripled at times. They simply had little help.

In college ball, 2 good senior guards should be able to carry the team for quite a few games. As has been noted, we are only asking the 7 freshman to get the ball to KL and TL (whether by dribbling/passing at the point or by rebounding/passing at the 4/5) and also to contribute as additional role players in scoring offense/defense. We are not looking to them as our "go to guys" at critical times of each game. KM will not be the first freshman college point guard and is replacing DP and not Marquee Perry. Similarly, BT will be replacing BH and not IV. After losing 25 pounds and coming into his final season, BE should double his ppg from 6 yo 12.

I am not saying we will win 25 games and get to the Sweet 16 or this season will be a failure but to say we will be .500 and keep complaining about our youth (and then ignore the youth on other teams like Carbondale) is not realistic. 20 wins in today's college game (especially with our schedule) is not the mark of an awesome team. 3 Star is correct, next year (w/o TL, KL and BE) will be a significant test where will be need a few of these freshmen - or next year's freshmen - to defend the other team's best player (KL this year) and to score at critical moments (both TL and KL).

I am not sure where you are getting my comments as complaining. I never said anything about other teams - SIUC included. They will have their own problems due to their youth. I have said before that I think the future is bright for us but the problem with the future is it is not now. TL and KL might be fantastic as a duo this year - but doing and hoping are not the same thing. I will be very happy if all comes to past that is being predicted.

[cheeseman]

your first apprehension, lisch and liddell, i would agree if our replacements didnt seem to better what left. it is pretty obvious that we have sufficent talent to better what left even with luke and danny having nice seasons.

your second apprehension, barry eberhardt. isnt your own statement somewhat conflicted? you wonder what he can add and then state he basically gave us little last year. he now is a year older, wiser and reportedly in better physical condition. one would think he would be at least marginally better.

your third apprehension - rickma just covering himself or is he geniunely worried. let's not forget he spent all of december trying to pound a square peg in a round hole for whatever reason. at least a couple of unneeded losses in december imo. and who knows what the first gw game would have actually yielded if he had not enacted a marine boot camp over xmas break and exhausted the team. my point is rickma himself pushed down our results last year from what they could have been imo.

now he has his players, he will do all he can to maximize his results from day one.

I would agree that I am conflicted with Barry - I hope he improves this year but we have seen this happen before where the senior who was a Juco transfer did not progress much past their junior year. Once again, I am not saying we will not have a 20 plus win season - I am just not ready to say that we absolutely will.

[STL Hoops Insider]

I think Cassity will be key this season. He can sub for anyone of the starters except the center and you dont lose any size. Also, with his pg ability, he pretty much allows Cotto to focus on sg exclusively and he can concentrate on scoring and not have to harness himself as trying to set up others and he can just pass when he draws helpside defenders. Landing those 2 in the spring was an absolute steal. I already thought it was a great class that was signed in the fall. To add those 2 late was just great. I'm excited.

[SShoe]

I agree with much of your analysis and I think Barry will be better, but I would be very surprised if he doubled his ppg. I hope you are right.

Some fans might be overly cautious about what our freshmen can do because our program doesn't have a long history of freshmen who make an impact. Typically our freshmen either sit the bench or are role players. But if you look around college basketball, it seems more and more freshmen play a bigger role. We haven't had impact freshmen since KL and TL. This year's freshmen are coming into a better situation because TL and KL are now the veteran anchors. The freshmen will be asked to play a big role (especially Mitchell), but they won't be expected to carry the scoring load. If Barry can step up and get us 8-10ppg and one of the freshmen can also provide 8-10 ppg, then hopefully scoring won't be as big of a problem.

Great post. I personally think we have 2 or 3 (maybe even 4) freshmen who will have a similar type of impact as KL and TL did in their first year, and this year's upperclassmen, albeit only 3 of them, are better than that year's set of upperclassmen. I also think that each of the remaining freshman will be at the very least solid role players, which is probably more than our graduating seniors last year except Luke.

[jimbofive]

Great post. I personally think we have 2 or 3 (maybe even 4) freshmen who will have a similar type of impact as KL and TL did in their first year, and this year's upperclassmen, albeit only 3 of them, are better than that year's set of upperclassmen. I also think that each of the remaining freshman will be at the very least solid role players, which is probably more than our graduating seniors last year except Luke.

Danny Brown was a shot caller and I won't take any less from anyone. Unless that was an unintentional slight on your behalf.

[jjray]

I think Cassity will be key this season. He can sub for anyone of the starters except the center and you dont lose any size. Also, with his pg ability, he pretty much allows Cotto to focus on sg exclusively and he can concentrate on scoring and not have to harness himself as trying to set up others and he can just pass when he draws helpside defenders. Landing those 2 in the spring was an absolute steal. I already thought it was a great class that was signed in the fall. To add those 2 late was just great. I'm excited.

STHI seriously, you're going to play Cassity at 4? All 6'4" 185 of him. He's not physically strong enough for that. I even question how well he'll do at wing as a freshman. Luke Meyer way underwhelmed me as a freshman. Not to say these are the same types of players but Cassity physically has to mature (which I am sure he will). I think we are getting our expectations up a bit on Kyle if we expect him to be a serious contributor this year. Right now he's best suited to be a combo guard but he's behind Kevin, K. Mitchell, and Cotto in that department. He'll get minutes for sure but how many? I think John is going to get minutes at 3 before Cassity due to physically being able to defend the position and help on the boards. We'll see. Perhaps Kyle has put on muscle since last spring and I am completely unaware.

[STL Hoops Insider]

STHI seriously, you're going to play Cassity at 4? All 6'4" 185 of him. He's not physically strong enough for that. I even question how well he'll do at wing as a freshman. Luke Meyer way underwhelmed me as a freshman. Not to say these are the same types of players but Cassity physically has to mature (which I am sure he will). I think we are getting our expectations up a bit on Kyle if we expect him to be a serious contributor this year. Right now he's best suited to be a combo guard but he's behind Kevin, K. Mitchell, and Cotto in that department. He'll get minutes for sure but how many? I think John is going to get minutes at 3 before Cassity due to physically being able to defend the position and help on the boards. We'll see. Perhaps Kyle has put on muscle since last spring and I am completely unaware.

No, when Cassity would sub in for the pf, Liddell would slide over to pf as he's done every other year when the Billikens want to play quicker. You wouldnt lose any size because Liddell is only an inch shorter that Eberhart, if that, and Cassity only an inch shorter than Liddell. I thought you would put that together.