The Wiz Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 4th seed....NIT chances...Rich ...87%...VCU...74% General Outlook........Yesterday , we were 2nd ITN in TOs ...LeMoyne had 1 more at 23. However, we still took the TO crown because LeM's TO spread was only 9 to our 12. While everyone will focus on the TOs in the coming days and getting that 22 number down, it is the spread which is important. Let's say we get get that 22 number for the VCU game down to 12...there will still be a problem if we only force them to TO 3 times(9 spread). So how do things look for the rest of the season. Again, let's look at the VCU game. If we match them in TOs, the 5 pt spread is gone and then it will be about basketball stuff....slash line/shooting...rebs ...assists...defense. ...but unless we match TOs the rest won't matter. Here are some interesting projections....if we match teams in TOs the rest of the season we win half of the remaining games. If we match AND make the slash we win most of the rest of the games. If we match and play like we did on offense the last 2 games...we win all the remaining games...most of them being blowouts for SLU. Take a deep breath ...count to 3 and then let it out. One of the things that surprised me in looking over today's data is our overall standing. We are still a C- team...but beyond that we didn't move. On my rankings, I have SLU at 206...before the St. J game we were 207. I am thinking a 1 pt loss on the road to a pretty good team and virtually no change. So I asked the computer ...what gives?....It started talking about the United Way...artificial intelligence...what do you expect. Once we returned to SLU basketball it said it had projected a 9 pt win for St. J....7 of those pts were based on the home field advantage swap...which would then take it down to 2 pts ...we lost by 1 pt ....take out the rounding errors amounted to a difference of less than 1 pt. What this means is that between now and the last time we played St. J a month ago the computer didn't see any overall improvement. No question that certain areas have improved... offense and rebounding but other areas have declined ...TOs and defense...canceling out the gain. Result equals no overall change ...no overall improvement. Let's take a look at the game Game Preview....VCU comes in as a B+ team. Right now listed as an NIT team. I don't list a team for the Dance unless they have at least a 50% chance of making it. If you read the above paragraph, you see we have a chance to win this game. VCU playing at our place is pretty much the same as us playing at St. J. On offense, we are the better team right now. On the other side of the coin , VCU has one of the best defenses ITN. Let's look at the card.... Report Card.... The card is positive.....4 up ( 3 Off & 1 Def ) and none down .................SLU............VCU................SLU.....................VCU ...........................OFF..........................................DEF.......... PPG..........C-..................D+...................F+......................A FG%..........C-..................C-...................D........................A+..13th ITN 3P%...........A-..................B.....................D+.....................A+..13th ITN FT%..........B...................A+...10th ITN............................. Reb...........D+.................C+..................D+......................B+ OFF Rebs = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb UP...............Off....3P%...FT%...Reb.....Def...FG% Down.........Off...none......Def...none Top 100 In The Nation SLU Min /gm...Jimerson ...54th...up VCU Blks...Fermin...63rd FT%....Shulga...97th Injury /Illness report and misc The Bills... Meadows...Quest...2/10...back VCU... None Keys to the Game.......Guard Bamisile from the arc....he killed us from 3 ( 70%..7-10) His 5 extra 3PM cost us 15 pts and the game. We need to shoot much better than the last VCU game...36/20/94...We missed 4 extra 3P shots (12pts) ...even the 94% didn't matter because they had more FTM because of an extra 7 FTAs. (they shot 80%) WWN2D2W...Target slash--Beat VCU across the slash line...Hold VCU to 70 pts....Match them in TOs and Rebs....Hold Bamisile to 12pts...Hold the top 4 VCU scorers to 40 pts. Bottom line......... TOs to match Layups to jam Exceed their slashline And beat the Ram. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 We don't match up with VCU. They play defense. VCU by 12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 VCU is a strange team to watch. They remain uber-athletic but seem to compete in games by committee. One night it's Bamisile, as he did against us with 29 or whatever. But overall he's only averaging 12 ppg. Shulga and Bairstow are decent transfers from Utah State and play complimentary, controlled ball. Shulga is the team's leading scorer at almost 15 ppg. Bairstow is at 11 ppg and the fourth double digit scorer is Zeb Jackson. From a scoring standpoint, their interior players don't jump out at you. Fermin starts and gets spelled by Lawal and the other front line guy is Kuany Kuany. These guys are offensive Jekyl-and-Hydes. But defensively, takign the ballto the rim with both Fermin and Lawal is pure dangerous. Kuany likes to shoot the three but is streaky even at nearly 40%. Surprisingly, two of their three conference losses have come at Siegel. But very early in the conference slate. They've won 8 of their last nine including the 49 to 47 slugfest with Dayton last Friday. Going to be a tough test no matter what. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 If you want look at it from a " what have they been doing lately" - Over their last 4 games, their offense is 239th int and their defense is a measly 2nd int. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juniorbill76 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 On 2/12/2024 at 10:49 AM, wgstl said: If you want look at it from a " what have they been doing lately" - Over their last 4 games, their offense is 239th int and their defense is a measly 2nd int. Yet VCU gave up 85 pts and scored 95. Chaifetz Arena is a different part of the multiverse. billikenbill likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wgstl Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, juniorbill76 said: Yet VCU gave up 85 pts and scored 95. Chaifetz Arena is a different part of the multiverse. I had thought about this about three minutes into the second half lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Billikens defense needs to go to F-, wiz. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 11 minutes ago, Soderball said: Billikens defense needs to go to F-, wiz. Yeah, seriously, I think they are just that bad. F- seems the correct grade Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Game Review Well the good news is we beat them on TOs. But if you have been reading along, you know that only evens up the game so we then have a chance to win. The next measuring stick after we we meet the TO requirement is the slash line. Let's take a look at some highlights from my original post above. Bolded statements from original post.... Keys to the Game.......Guard Bamisile from the arc....he killed us from 3 ( 70%..7-10) His 5 extra 3PM cost us 15 pts and the game. ...I guess this info didn't make it to the team. He only scored 27 pts instead of the 29 he had the first game....15 of those pts from the arc. Here is guy when he is not playing the Billikens averages about 11 ppg. Once again this guy costs us the game with an extra 16pts. He is also the reason we didn't make the next parameter... Beat VCU across the slash line...Had we scored 3 more 3PM plus 4 more FTs we would have beat them across the slash and won the game. We are the better shooting team...and yet they beat us across the slash. There is more but this is enough...you get the idea...match up the TOs and we have a chance to win....if we don't win on matched TOs it means we played poorly...poor 3 Pt shooting...poor reb...poor defense...etc. 51 minutes ago, Lord Elrond said: Yeah, seriously, I think they are just that bad. F- seems the correct grade Well, we are not yet there but we are sinking toward that. Generally, when you give up 81 pts , it is considered an F- game. Could the Bills drop that low? It is possible but not probable. We would have to give up about 88 ppg over the next 6 games to reach that low. We don't have to reach that low to prove we are bad. And yet with all the negativity, the game was winnable. Remember the game was tied at 61 deep into the 2nd half...it was anyone's game and we let it slip away. No, this isn't a terrible team....it is a team that has some good parts but hasn't yet gelled. It is through that missing gel that victories slip away. The clock is ticking.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 9 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Game Review Well the good news is we beat them on TOs. But if you have been reading along, you know that only evens up the game so we then have a chance to win. The next measuring stick after we we meet the TO requirement is the slash line. Let's take a look at some highlights from my original post above. Bolded statements from original post.... Keys to the Game.......Guard Bamisile from the arc....he killed us from 3 ( 70%..7-10) His 5 extra 3PM cost us 15 pts and the game. ...I guess this info didn't make it to the team. He only scored 27 pts instead of the 29 he had the first game....15 of those pts from the arc. Here is guy when he is not playing the Billikens averages about 11 ppg. Once again this guy costs us the game with an extra 16pts. He is also the reason we didn't make the next parameter... Beat VCU across the slash line...Had we scored 3 more 3PM plus 4 more FTs we would have beat them across the slash and won the game. We are the better shooting team...and yet they beat us across the slash. There is more but this is enough...you get the idea...match up the TOs and we have a chance to win....if we don't win on matched TOs it means we played poorly...poor 3 Pt shooting...poor reb...poor defense...etc. Well, we are not yet there but we are sinking toward that. Generally, when you give up 81 pts , it is considered an F- game. Could the Bills drop that low? It is possible but not probable. We would have to give up about 88 ppg over the next 6 games to reach that low. We don't have to reach that low to prove we are bad. And yet with all the negativity, the game was winnable. Remember the game was tied at 61 deep into the 2nd half...it was anyone's game and we let it slip away. No, this isn't a terrible team....it is a team that has some good parts but hasn't yet gelled. It is through that missing gel that victories slip away. The clock is ticking.... The computer going to give us odds on canning Ford? I say we hire the computer to coach the team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 I watched the game, I thought we did reasonably well until we got the Technical against Hughes. This got us down and lowered our game effectiveness and scoring for some time. By the time we had recovered, we had lost 6 pts against VCU that we just did not manage to regain later on. We are still in the last spot in A10. It was a good effort but we lost again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 hours ago, The Wiz said: Game Review Well the good news is we beat them on TOs. But if you have been reading along, you know that only evens up the game so we then have a chance to win. The next measuring stick after we we meet the TO requirement is the slash line. Let's take a look at some highlights from my original post above. Bolded statements from original post.... Keys to the Game.......Guard Bamisile from the arc....he killed us from 3 ( 70%..7-10) His 5 extra 3PM cost us 15 pts and the game. ...I guess this info didn't make it to the team. He only scored 27 pts instead of the 29 he had the first game....15 of those pts from the arc. Here is guy when he is not playing the Billikens averages about 11 ppg. Once again this guy costs us the game with an extra 16pts. He is also the reason we didn't make the next parameter... Beat VCU across the slash line...Had we scored 3 more 3PM plus 4 more FTs we would have beat them across the slash and won the game. We are the better shooting team...and yet they beat us across the slash. There is more but this is enough...you get the idea...match up the TOs and we have a chance to win....if we don't win on matched TOs it means we played poorly...poor 3 Pt shooting...poor reb...poor defense...etc. Well, we are not yet there but we are sinking toward that. Generally, when you give up 81 pts , it is considered an F- game. Could the Bills drop that low? It is possible but not probable. We would have to give up about 88 ppg over the next 6 games to reach that low. We don't have to reach that low to prove we are bad. And yet with all the negativity, the game was winnable. Remember the game was tied at 61 deep into the 2nd half...it was anyone's game and we let it slip away. No, this isn't a terrible team....it is a team that has some good parts but hasn't yet gelled. It is through that missing gel that victories slip away. The clock is ticking.... Ok, so what grade does giving up 81.4 pts per game give us? During the season, our stats show we have scored 74 per game, but given up 78.3 points per game. During A10 play, our scoring has been 74 points per game, but our defense has sunk to 81.4 points per game. How about the last 3 games, when Sincere Parker has scored over 30 points per game? Our defense the last 3 games has given up 88.7 points per game (F- grade level). Yes, over the last 3 games we have played defense at a F- grade level. Sincere Parker has just had an unbelievable 3 game stretch of scoring over 30 points per game, but it just hasn’t helped us all that much to win games (which sounds insane). In conference play, we are 1-9 when Sincere Parker fails to score at least 30 points per game, but we are 1-2 when he scores higher than 30 points per game. He needs to score over 40 per game to make us consistent winners with our lousy defense. The more he scores and the faster he scores, the more we give up. CenHudDude likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenbooster Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Do ya think SP is the defensive liability when SP is in the game?….,I do. mhg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Elrond Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 24 minutes ago, Billikenbooster said: Do ya think SP is the defensive liability when SP is in the game?….,I do. mhg Yeah, but they aren’t just scoring with the man Sincere Parker is guarding, now are they? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Finding the defensive liability on this team is finding hay in the haystack. billikenbill, Dr. Holly Hills and Billikenbooster like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Again the simple stat is TOs You lose the TO battle...you lose the game ...85% of the time. In order to overcome that stat (the 15%) we need to shoot 20% higher than the opponent from the arc...no simple task. Failure to do so spells auto loss. If we win the TO battle , we win 55% of the time....the deciding factor being FG% and reb...we usually lose both factors in games we lose with one of those stats becoming a double digit negative. Last night's game was a good example. We won the TO battle...but lost the 2 key factors...FG% and reb with one being by double digits...FG% lost 49%-47% and rebs 39-24 (double digit loss) Bottom line...This team has no margin for error. We can't give opponents extra chances...be it TOs or Rebs. If we do it almost always will spell loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Lax Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 So if we out rebound, out shoot, and have less turnovers we should win? The only possible way to lose in that scenario is if the number of free throws is way different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 2 hours ago, SLU_Lax said: So if we out rebound, out shoot, and have less turnovers we should win? The only possible way to lose in that scenario is if the number of free throws is way different. Almost.... Step 1....Match or have less TOs....if this doesn't happen...about 80% chance for a loss....step 1a (if you don't match or have fewer TOs...score 20% more than your opponent from the arc for a chance to win. You may only go on to step 2 if you complete step 1...noncompletion of step 1 = loss Step 2.... Out rebound your opponent OR have a higher FG% than the other team Step 3...Bills win....70% if you out rebound....80% if your FG% is higher....95% if you do both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 55 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Almost.... Step 1....Match or have less TOs....if this doesn't happen...about 80% chance for a loss....step 1a (if you don't match or have fewer TOs...score 20% more than your opponent from the arc for a chance to win. You may only go on to step 2 if you complete step 1...noncompletion of step 1 = loss Step 2.... Out rebound your opponent OR have a higher FG% than the other team Step 3...Bills win....70% if you out rebound....80% if your FG% is higher....95% if you do both. If the Billikens weren't bad we would win more games billiken_roy likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLU_Lax Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 42 minutes ago, The Wiz said: Almost.... Step 1....Match or have less TOs....if this doesn't happen...about 80% chance for a loss....step 1a (if you don't match or have fewer TOs...score 20% more than your opponent from the arc for a chance to win. You may only go on to step 2 if you complete step 1...noncompletion of step 1 = loss Step 2.... Out rebound your opponent OR have a higher FG% than the other team Step 3...Bills win....70% if you out rebound....80% if your FG% is higher....95% if you do both. Makes sense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 8 minutes ago, Soderball said: If the Billikens weren't bad we would win more games Worst billiken defense in my fandom (back to 1977). Worst Billiken point guards in my fandom. Worst Billiken game, practice and development coach in my fandom. Besides that they aren't bad. At least we get the chance to watch Parker, who in my opinion is the best Billiken scorer since the Larry the Legend Hughes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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