St. J over The Bills by 9

[The Wiz]

Post season A-10.....NCAA...Day 3rd seed....NIT chances...Rich ...80%...St. B...60%...VCU...54%...

General Outlook........Great game against LaS...Yes, I know LaS  isn't the best but they are far from the worst team we have played this year...and we whomped them AT THEIR PLACE with a record 102 points....The most points the Bills have scored in an A-10 conference game ever... plus the 2nd most in any conference game since the Bills beat Wichita St in 1956 when they scored 103. ...A tip o' the cap to Parker who scored 33 pts and 6 rebs... So what happened?  First,  we neutralized the TO spread (10-10)  ... defense was a wash since both are about equal which then leads us to  shooting...where we were the clearly superior team. I mentioned in the LaS forecast we should beat them across the entire slash line...we did and the rest is history.

So is it over ? Are we out of the funk? Are we trending up now?  Not yet...1 game does not make a trend BUT this could be a turning point ...not just because we won and broke the losing streak but because the numbers turned it into a signature game.

Let's take a look at the St. J  game...

Game Preview....This would be a great follow up win  especially on the road.  As you can see by the spread , this will not be an easy task.  While The Bills have moved back up to C-...St. J is sporting a solid B overall....a much better team than LaS.  When you look at the report card below, it won't give you much hope as St. J leads in every category but FT% where they tie us. So is that it...do we have any chance ?  The answer is YES.  I will tell you there was an asterisk by the computer's results....which means the computer thinks we can win this game.  Don't forget , we have already beaten St. J about a month ago by 3.  Since then, the current spread is showing a 12 pt shift (3pt win last time+ 9 pt projected loss this time)   Seven of the 12 pts are home field advantage swap.....the other 5 is that we have slipped backwards as a team.  So what is different  from the last time that will give us a chance this time.  On the downside, we are missing Dalger who had one of his best games scoring 15pts and 3 reb.  Meanwhile,  it was Parker's first game back ..he played 3 mins and couldn't continue ...0 pts.  So the computers posits the following question...can a healthy Parker now play at least 21 min and score at least 15 pts and 3 rebs and replace the Dalger production...The answer is a strong yes. In addition, Hargrove had an uncharacteristically bad game....8 pts (1-7 FG%) and 1 reb...can he do better than this...again another strong yes.  The computer also thinks Ezewiro is a better player than a month ago particularly if he can stay out of foul trouble.....So the elements for a win are there.   Btw, our last game with St J was strange...it was one of the few games that we  lost the TO battle (7-5) and won the game.(17% chance) In order to overcome the deficit and win the game  , the computer says we need to shoot 54% from the arc.  We shot 54%.  In the only other game  where we lost the TO spread (badly...10-0) and won(La Tech)...we again made the 54% threshold.... this time shooting 56%.  Can we just match the TOs this time and shoot  the regular projected target slash.

Let's look at the card....

Report Card.... 

The card is positive.....2 up ( Off ) and one down (Def)

.................SLU............St. J................SLU..................St. J

...........................OFF........................................DEF..........

PPG..........C-..................B.....................F+...................C+

FG%..........C-..................B-...................D.....................A-

3P%...........B+..................A.....................D+.................C

FT%..........B-...................B-...........................................

Reb...........D.....................B-..................D+...................B-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....FG%...PPG....Def...none

Down.........Off...none......Def...PPG

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

 Min /gm...Jimerson ...55th...up

St. J

Blks...1.5....Fleming...87th

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills...

Meadows...Questionable...2/7...back

St. J....

Haskin... 11/14...out for season...Red Shirt

Winborne...1/26...Out indefinitely...Personal

Lange...1/31...out for season...Concussion

Keys to the Game.....St. J  Depth... the missing players have shortened their bench ...they go with 6...I think one of the reasons we won last time is one of their key players fouled out and they couldn't hang on. .... They can shoot the 3...even better than us and we are pretty good....We stopped them last time (34%)...we need to do it again.....Stop Reynolds and Greer ...especially Reynolds ...These 2 guys will take half of the team's shots.

WWN2D2W...Target slash....47/ 39/ 74.....Match them in  TOs and Rebs....Hold Reynolds and Greer to 30 pts. ...St. J slash...38/33/ 71

Bottom line....If we play to our potential...we can stop the Hawk flappin' and start the Billiken clappin'.

[wgstl]

Wiz, did the computer not see how we handled the mighty LaSalle?? Bills are on a roll.

[The Wiz]

Here is an interesting simulation.... If we change just 1 stat in all our losses ...TOs...and make the TOs at least  equal to our opponent...our record right now would be 6-4 in conference  and 1 game out of the double bye 4th place.  In addition,  we would be 16-7 overall (a B team) ranked at 93. In many cases we are talking about only changing a few TOs as in forcing the opp to TO the ball over 1 more time and for us to lose it one less time. As they say ...the game is a matter of inches.

[OkieBilliken]

Any chance St Joes plays that excellent match-up zone that was so effective for them in the 2nd Half of our first meeting?  

[Billikenbooster]

5 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

Here is an interesting simulation.... If we change just 1 stat in all our losses ...TOs...and make the TOs at least  equal to our opponent...our record right now would be 6-4 in conference  and 1 game out of the double bye 4th place.  In addition,  we would be 16-7 overall (a B team) ranked at 93. In many cases we are talking about only changing a few TOs as in forcing the opp to TO the ball over 1 more time and for us to lose it one less time. As they say ...the game is a matter of inches.

Last game Medley played but 14 minutes but had 3 TO’s, highest for the game. Hughes hasnt particularly shone when PG, but might be a better choice going forward, especially if Meadows continues MIA

[The Wiz]

26 minutes ago, Billikenbooster said:

Last game Medley played but 14 minutes but had 3 TO’s, highest for the game. Hughes hasnt particularly shone when PG, but might be a better choice going forward, especially if Meadows continues MIA

I think you are correct.

Here is what the data shows.... This is TO/mins  arranged in order ...fewest to highest...ie ...Thames 1 TO every 21.9 min

Thames....21.9 min

Hughes.....21.2

Meadows...21.2

Curcic.........20.7

Hargrove....20.2

Parker.......19.8

Jimerson...18.8

Ezewiro...16.8

SvB.........16

Zhang.....12.7

Evans......11

Medley....9.6

So yes ...you are spot on...Hughes for Medley would drop our TO ratio as Medley turns the ball over at nearly twice the rate Hughes does.

[TRN]

 

[Soderball]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I think you are correct.

Here is what the data shows.... This is TO/mins  arranged in order ...fewest to highest...ie ...Thames 1 TO every 21.9 min

Thames....21.9 min

Hughes.....21.2

Meadows...21.2

Curcic.........20.7

Hargrove....20.2

Parker.......19.8

Jimerson...18.8

Ezewiro...16.8

SvB.........16

Zhang.....12.7

Evans......11

Medley....9.6

So yes ...you are spot on...Hughes for Medley would drop our TO ratio as Medley turns the ball over at nearly twice the rate Hughes does.

That's an astounding stat list. That is some seriously bad play. There's a reason why i kept ripping Medley especially earlier in the season.(i still am but i pretty numbed to just how bad he is.. he may be the worst guard we have ever brought to SLU)

[SLU_Lax]

3 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I think you are correct.

Here is what the data shows.... This is TO/mins  arranged in order ...fewest to highest...ie ...Thames 1 TO every 21.9 min

Thames....21.9 min

Hughes.....21.2

Meadows...21.2

Curcic.........20.7

Hargrove....20.2

Parker.......19.8

Jimerson...18.8

Ezewiro...16.8

SvB.........16

Zhang.....12.7

Evans......11

Medley....9.6

So yes ...you are spot on...Hughes for Medley would drop our TO ratio as Medley turns the ball over at nearly twice the rate Hughes does.

Except of course that the PG actually has the ball and is in a position to turn the ball over twice as much.  Minutes does not capture the usage rate.  It is not a perfect scenario.  Or maybe we can have SVB bring the ball up as his turnover rate on a per minute basis is also much better.

[The Wiz]

And  now it is time for the last piece of the TO puzzle...the + /-  stat also known as the net worth statement.   In other words , is a player adding value when he is on the floor or subtracting value. And if he is adding or subtracting value,  how much is he contributing during the game.

We will start with the TOE. (Turn Over Effect)  This stat is more than just a POT (Points Off Turnovers...these are the points that the player has lost for the team as a result of the TO) .  It also includes the LOP  (Lost Opportunity Points) . This refers to the points that would have been potential scored by the team on the lost possession by the player. So let's review. 

POT+ LOP =TOE...The TOE is a bad number ...it is the negative effect of the player turning the ball over...It is the minus of the plus minus formula.  The plus is the player's PPG.  Which leads us to the final formula...PPG- TOE = Player net worth (+/-)

So the way this works is you take each player's PPG  and then you subtract  their TOE  you then have the player's net worth. Here is the net worth chart.

Parker....+12

Jimerson...10.3

Ezewiro...10.3

Hargrove...9.1

Hughes...3.8

Thames...3.4

Meadows...3.1

Curcic.......1.9

Evans.......0.9

Zhang......0.8

SvB.........+0.5

Medley...-0.8

This chart gives a more balanced approach to TOs  by balancing it against PPG...much the same way that TOs are used to balance  assists. Of course there are other factors that affect the game and a player's time on the floor such as rebs, blks, stls, assts etc.  But this is an important stat for the Bills in light of the fact that TOs are a major factor in the outcome of Bills games. 

If the computer were coach , it would start the first 5 on the list and go down the list as subs were needed. And of course the computer would work for cheap. You could pay it in giga-bit-coins.  Of course , you could always pay it in cash ...as long as it was in Bills.

[The Wiz]

29 minutes ago, SLU_Lax said:

Except of course that the PG actually has the ball and is in a position to turn the ball over twice as much.  Minutes does not capture the usage rate.  It is not a perfect scenario.  Or maybe we can have SVB bring the ball up as his turnover rate on a per minute basis is also much better.

I must have anticipated your question.  While the above follow up chart doesn't exactly deal with usage, it does add more balance and context . The first TO chart is just the raw data used to produce the second chart.  You will be happy to see that the computer in the 2nd chart agrees with you and doesn't want SvB bringing the ball up either.

[VeniceMenace]

5 hours ago, Billikenbooster said:

Last game Medley played but 14 minutes but had 3 TO’s, highest for the game. Hughes hasnt particularly shone when PG, but might be a better choice going forward, especially if Meadows continues MIA

Bingo. Lineup that appeared to click most was Hughes, Parker, Jimer, Hargrove and EZ, with Thames 6th man.

[Soderball]

22 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

And  now it is time for the last piece of the TO puzzle...the + /-  stat also known as the net worth statement.   In other words , is a player adding value when he is on the floor or subtracting value. And if he is adding or subtracting value,  how much is he contributing during the game.

We will start with the TOE. (Turn Over Effect)  This stat is more than just a POT (Points Off Turnovers...these are the points that the player has lost for the team as a result of the TO) .  It also includes the LOP  (Lost Opportunity Points) . This refers to the points that would have been potential scored by the team on the lost possession by the player. So let's review. 

POT+ LOP =TOE...The TOE is a bad number ...it is the negative effect of the player turning the ball over...It is the minus of the plus minus formula.  The plus is the player's PPG.  Which leads us to the final formula...PPG- TOE = Player net worth (+/-)

So the way this works is you take each player's PPG  and then you subtract  their TOE  you then have the player's net worth. Here is the net worth chart.

Parker....+12

Jimerson...10.3

Ezewiro...10.3

Hargrove...9.1

Hughes...3.8

Thames...3.4

Meadows...3.1

Curcic.......1.9

Evans.......0.9

Zhang......0.8

SvB.........+0.5

Medley...-0.8

This chart gives a more balanced approach to TOs  by balancing it against PPG...much the same way that TOs are used to balance  assists. Of course there are other factors that affect the game and a player's time on the floor such as rebs, blks, stls, assts etc.  But this is an important stat for the Bills in light of the fact that TOs are a major factor in the outcome of Bills games. 

If the computer were coach , it would start the first 5 on the list and go down the list as subs were needed. And of course the computer would work for cheap. You could pay it in giga-bit-coins.  Of course , you could always pay it in cash ...as long as it was in Bills.

Better lineup. I'd probably play Zhang and SVB a little bit but otherwise those 8 at the top are the best lineup. SVB and Zhang have the factor of being "bigs" which makes them have more defensive utility around the basket and frankly the ability to just bash around the opponent and make the game less fun for them. At least it won't matter if they get in foul trouble. They're terrible but they are big, something to be said for that.

[billiken_roy]

7 hours ago, Soderball said:

That's an astounding stat list. That is some seriously bad play. There's a reason why i kept ripping Medley especially earlier in the season.(i still am but i pretty numbed to just how bad he is.. he may be the worst guard we have ever brought to SLU)

I think medley is worse.  They both are bad.

[wgstl]

Can’t sleep. Way too excited about this game today 

[Soderball]

9 hours ago, billiken_roy said:

I think medley is worse.  They both are bad.

Aaron Hines was better.

Crews had better guard play and much worse wings than this bunch. Either way the roster has to be purged just like it did then.

[Bay Area Billiken]

SLU @ St. Joe's today, 12:30 Eastern, 11:30 Central on USA. Joey's are 9.5 point favorites, o156.5, per cbssports.com.

[wgstl]

1 hour ago, Soderball said:

Aaron Hines was better.

Crews had better guard play and much worse wings than this bunch. Either way the roster has to be purged just like it did then.

It’s been like 4 or 5 games since I last checked, but at that point in time, cian and yuri freshman year stats were very similar across the board. 

[Soderball]

39 minutes ago, wgstl said:

It’s been like 4 or 5 games since I last checked, but at that point in time, cian and yuri freshman year stats were very similar across the board. 

Yuri's frosh year we were 23-8; 12-6 and finished 4th in the A10 with Collins averaging 31 mins a game.

 

Okay dude. Love the revisionist history. He was a much better point guard than what we have now. Were we really good that year? No absolutely not; it wasn't the raging burning dumpster fire of this year, just more CTF mediocrity back then. Fire Ford.

[wgstl]

8 minutes ago, Soderball said:

Yuri's frosh year we were 23-8; 12-6 and finished 4th in the A10 with Collins averaging 31 mins a game.

 

Okay dude. Love the revisionist history. He was a much better point guard than what we have now. Were we really good that year? No absolutely not; it wasn't the raging burning dumpster fire of this year, just more CTF mediocrity back then. Fire Ford.

Point is has Cian been great? Absolutely not.  but he's just 1 of 50 reasons this team sucks. I never count on frosh players to help in year 1, he had to step up early cause Ford can’t recruit. Never understand the Cian shade

[The Wiz]

What can I say?...After 2 months of talking/harping  about TOs (Just check the charts in this thread above on TOs)  the St. J star of the game  was our TOs.  St. J didn't beat us ...we gave them the game.  If we match them on TOs we win by 20+ ...In other words, we do the same thing we did to LaS to a much better team ...blow them out at home. There were so many things that went right in this game BUT as I have pointed out many times before...Lose the TO battle...lose the game.  The stat right now stands at 85%...If you lose the TO battle you have an 85% chance to lose the game.  Hard to overcome that.

The most amazing set of numbers was to give up 22 TOs (TO spread was 12) and to only lose by 1. Usually 20 TOs or a TO spread of 10 spells automatic loss.  Some of the things that went right...bolded from above...

can a healthy Parker now play at least 21 min and score at least 15 pts and 3 rebs and replace the Dalger production...yes...34 pts ...9 reb ...27 min ...far exceeded

Can Hargrove score more than the 8Pts and 1 reb from the last St. J game ....yes...19 pts ..8 reb...far exceeded

Match rebounds.....Yes..40-30...again far exceeded

Hold Reynolds and Greer to 30 pts....17pts and yet another  far exceed

Target slash....47/ 39/ 74... another yes...actual  49/42/86

We ALMOST did everything we needed to do to win...I leave you with 1 thought...

Lose the TO battle...lose the game.

 

[Old guy]

Wiz, I think you are absolutely correct that our stats for the game were indicative of failure. However things that are expected to go one way go the opposite, at least from time to time. We should have lost this game and were expected to do so by 10 points, Team Rankings betting based predictions. We lost by one, in the last second and against all of the self created problems we made for ourselves.

The team did a lot more than was expected, both in terms of bad stats, and in terms of scoring. We are still at the absolute bottom of the A10. If this was not enough, Ford came quite close to a physical fight with a StJ's fan.  Something that would have his required firing on the spot, plus having to face law suits, etc. This is particularly true if the fight had been broadcasted. Having coaches physically fighting a fan is an occurrence that cannot be modeled with stats, thanks the Lord it did not happen.