GM over The Bills by 10

[The Wiz]

General Outlook....  The Loy game was painful because had we just shot our season FT average we probably would have won the game.  But as Coach K use to say after a loss....next game. Unfortunately, it doesn't get any easier.  The good news is we hung onto our grade of C AND any games we win going forward will boost our GPA quickly.....the bad news is we are trending down. Can we turn the ship around?  Parker would be a plus but it doesn't look like he will be ready for this game.  If we cut down the TOs and just shoot average and play a little defense we can win any game on any given night. Let's take a look at what Sat has in store for us.

Game Preview....The Patriots enter the game with a B+ and listed as the 2nd best team in the A-10 on The Wiz scale.  They play 4 guards and a forward. One of their guards K Hall is 17th ITN in reb and 6th in Dbl-Dbl tied with 7'4" Zach Edey of Purdue and 7'2 Hunter Dickinson of KU.  How can a guard do that? ....because he is 6'7 and 230 .  And of course, he isn't their only threat.   Kelly is their "big man" (6' 9") and is shooting 57% from the field while Maddox is their 3P threat. So are we doomed ? ....not yet....While they have great numbers on Off and Def there are some weak spots for the Bills to exploit.  GM doesn't play 3P def (good time for the Bills to get hot from the arc) and they have a tendency to TO the ball if bothered ( a good time for the Bills to protect the ball and go after the other team). Perhaps the secret to this game  is for the Bills to come out at the tip off and play as if there were 2 min left on the clock  and we are down 3 AND do that for the entire game.. Play with a sense of urgency.

Report Card.... 

Report card... The report card is showing negative with no categories up and 3 down.  Offense is average - FT% fell a full grade....Def is limping ...badly. 

....................SLU.............GM..........SLU...........................GM

..............................OFF..........................................DEF.............

PPG...............C-................C.................D-............................A-

FG%...............C.................A-................F+...........................A+..9th ITN

3P%...............A-................A-.................D+..........................D+

FT%...............C..................B.....................................................

Reb...............D-.................B...................D..............................A-

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off....none....Def....none

Down.........Off......FT%....Def....FG%...3P%

Top 100 In The Nation

SLU

none

GM

Reb....Hall....17th

FT%...Maddox...19th(93.8%)

Dbl-Dbl...Hall...6th

Injury /Illness report and misc

The Bills....

Parker ....Nov 17....Out indefinitely...fractured foot....no more recent official updates

GM...

Dinkins....G...Nov 6.....Back....Out indefinitely

Keys to the Game.......Stop Hall or at least slow him down.  Protect the ball...pressure them ... make some 3s & FTs...play with a sense of urgency.

WWN2D2W...Target slash...48/40/73....Hold Hall, Maddox and Kelly to 34 pts....Beat GM on TOs...Stay within 3 on Rebs...Hold GM to 72 pts

Bottom line....If we close the Hall, we can win this game,  by George.

[HoosierPal]

Meadows is tied for 33rd ITN in Assist to Turnover Ratio.

[Soderball]

Soderball line is 45% from the arc. We shoot 45% or better we have a chance; under and it's over.

[The Wiz]

38 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Meadows is tied for 33rd ITN in Assist to Turnover Ratio.

Thanks for the update...He was missing from my list do to a technicality.   My qualifiers are tougher  than the NCAA which tends to be more inclusive than elite.  My list has 7 qualifiers ...all related to mins and pace of mins....e.g.  on pace for 300 min /season...120 min pace for home games ...etc.  The technicality is ...one of the qualifiers is 21 mins/ last 2 weeks.  Of course The Bills didn't play for 2 weeks.  Had we played a few days ago , I am showing he would have come in at 96th ITN....once again the difference in rankings has to do with more stringent qualifiers.

[OkieBilliken]

Those Defense grades for SLU make me sick to my stomach.   We could always defend.  Even when we were undersized, we could always defend.   Grawer, Spoon, Romar....we could always defend.   

[Cowboy II]

2 hours ago, OkieBilliken said:

Those Defense grades for SLU make me sick to my stomach.   We could always defend.  Even when we were undersized, we could always defend.   Grawer, Spoon, Romar....we could always defend.   

-took the words right off of my keyboard

[Aquinas]

I dont know what to expect this game. A beat down or suprising rally. 

[dlarry]

28 minutes ago, Aquinas said:

I dont know what to expect this game. A beat down or suprising rally. 

A surprise first half rally followed by a second half collapse and beat down? 

[Soderball]

Fire Travis Ford!

[The Wiz]

Well we came in pretty much at the point spread. The slash was almost right on....48/35/73 vs the target of 48/40 /73....just one 3P shot off....it was pretty much a winnable game. But again the same 2 factors  that beat us in the Loy game did it again in this one.....FTs and TOs

1...FTs...We lost the Loy game shooting  a horrific 42%....This game we hit the target exactly...73%...BUT...GM had an EXTRA 23 shots and as a result made an extra 21 pts.....GM 27-34 vs the Bills  8-11 ....  GM had an extra 14 shots over their average which resulted in an extra 12pts...final game  spread ...12 pts.

2. TOs ...The Bills for the second consecutive game had 16 TOs....Over 15 /gm is considered an F-....Also, a general rule of thumb is that any time you have 10 or more TOs than your opponent it is an automatic loss...today's spread was 16-5....Pts off TOs  21-10...11 extra pts for GM...plus when you consider the lost opportunities for the Bills to score on those extra 11 TOs it is well above 11pts....again a game changer.

Bottom line...Took too many fouls and turned over the ball too much...another potential win slipped away.

[TheChosenOne]

It feels unproductive to analyze this as a 12 point loss. The end of game run produces flawed conclusions. That was not a potential win that slipped away, they ran us and when the result was decided Hughes x3 and Thames hit some 3s while they were content to run out the clock, but that was merely cosmetic during garbage time. We are one of the best garbage time teams I’ve ever seen though.

[3star_recruit]

5 minutes ago, TheChosenOne said:

It feels unproductive to analyze this as a 12 point loss. The end of game run produces flawed conclusions. That was not a potential win that slipped away, they ran us and when the result was decided Hughes and Thames hit some 3s while they were content to run out the clock. We are one of the best garbage time teams I’ve ever seen though.

I agree.  Good to see LJ get some threes to go, though.  He was struggling mightily even before the injury.

[TheChosenOne]

22 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

I agree.  Good to see LJ get some threes to go, though.  He was struggling mightily even before the injury.

For sure, nice to see some 3s go down for him and Thames, but in no way was that “another potential win slipped away.” It was 74-53 at the under 4 media TO, that is where I’d stop any meaningful analysis of the game. We were hunting for 60 points as they approached 80. The game wasn’t within 10 points after the first few minutes of the 2nd half with their lead getting up to 23 multiple times. Most of us watched the game, so to read that line felt like Chris May propaganda. That might work for the folks paying his salary who know d!ck about hoops, but not us diehards.

[The Wiz]

22 minutes ago, TheChosenOne said:

It feels unproductive to analyze this as a 12 point loss. The end of game run produces flawed conclusions. That was not a potential win that slipped away, they ran us and when the result was decided Hughes x3 and Thames hit some 3s while they were content to run out the clock, but that was merely cosmetic during garbage time. We are one of the best garbage time teams I’ve ever seen though.

I understand what you are saying.  The computer looks at the extra 11 TOs  as not just 11 extra points for GM but 11 lost opportunities for The Bills ( more pts for The Bills and less for GM)...The data shows that SLU and GM are equal in season TOs...around 12/gm.  In a game simulation with TOs equal at the normal 12 a piece and everything else pretty much the same....there is 21 pt swing and SLU wins by 9.  The computer stays with the conclusion that this was a  winnable game. 

Computer bottom line...Failure was caused by human error.

[Soderball]

2 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I understand what you are saying.  The computer looks at the extra 11 TOs  as not just 11 extra points for GM but 11 lost opportunities for The Bills ( more pts for The Bills and less for GM)...The data shows that SLU and GM are equal in season TOs...around 12/gm.  In a game simulation with TOs equal at the normal 12 a piece and everything else pretty much the same....there is 21 pt swing and SLU wins by 9.  The computer stays with the conclusion that this was a  winnable game. 

Computer bottom line...Failure was caused by human error.

I agree that the TOs are a core issue; but I stand by the Soderball Theory that the Billikens live and die with 3pt% and most other stats aren't relevant in comparison.

[TheChosenOne]

The game was never within reach after the first few minutes of the 2nd half. We had no offense and couldn’t defend. Obviously if we don’t turn the ball over it produces a different result, but we did and got blown out. I probably don’t need to read a computer breakdown of a game that I watched. TOs (both turning it over - 16 and not forcing TOs - 5) and defense continue to be problems for this team and until the final 3 minutes we did not hit enough 3s to keep the game competitive (we were 3-15 from 3 prior to the final 3 minutes, so those final 3 minutes completely skew that portion of the slash line). Wiz, I don’t mean to go after you, I’m just pissed off.

[The Wiz]

7 hours ago, TheChosenOne said:

The game was never within reach after the first few minutes of the 2nd half. We had no offense and couldn’t defend. Obviously if we don’t turn the ball over it produces a different result, but we did and got blown out. I probably don’t need to read a computer breakdown of a game that I watched. TOs (both turning it over - 16 and not forcing TOs - 5) and defense continue to be problems for this team and until the final 3 minutes we did not hit enough 3s to keep the game competitive (we were 3-15 from 3 prior to the final 3 minutes, so those final 3 minutes completely skew that portion of the slash line). Wiz, I don’t mean to go after you, I’m just pissed off.

I understand you've been under the weather. When you are feeling better you may wish to come back and reread some of these posts.

I was not trying to tell you or other posters things you already know about the TO problem.  The point I was trying to make was that by providing the data and simulation runs,  it  show how just a small change in TO results (4-7 per team)  can result in a huge point swing(19-21pts)  in a game.  And these changes are not extraordinary .  Asking the Bills to hold TOs to 12/gm is not an unreasonable request since not only are they averaging that for the season but until recently they were in the 10-11 range.  And also to have The Bills be able to force 12 TOs against GM was  very doable.  GM has not only been averaging 12 TOs/ game (5 against The Bills) but they have done so against weak teams ( SOS = D-.....  Teams that are much weaker than The Bills).  TOs are damaging where ever they occur....beginning , middle or end of the game.   In this game as well as the LOY  game they came  fast and frequent in the first half....digging  quick holes.    Sloppy play, bad passes and protecting the ball are fixable problems.   Again, this is just one way the computer saw the GM game as winnable.

Hope you are feeling better soon....sending healing energy your way and The Bills way  so you may both get back to your better selves. 

[TheChosenOne]

10 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Hope you are feeling better soon....sending healing energy your way and The Bills way  so you may both get back to your better selves. 

Thanks Wiz, I’m getting there! I’m sorry for going off, I just read that line and didn’t want to hear it haha. The data behind it certainly makes sense, I just couldn’t take that line right after what I watched and in my current head space! And these analysis do demonstrate the fine line between not only winning and losing, but winning and not being overly competitive. I really do enjoy the content though, I just didn’t need it right after the game yesterday as I was still cooling down from the frustration. My apologies. Better days ahead!

[Soderball]

15 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I understand you've been under the weather. When you are feeling better you may wish to come back and reread some of these posts.

I was not trying to tell you or other posters things you already know about the TO problem.  The point I was trying to make was that by providing the data and simulation runs,  it  show how just a small change in TO results (4-7 per team)  can result in a huge point swing(19-21pts)  in a game.  And these changes are not extraordinary .  Asking the Bills to hold TOs to 12/gm is not an unreasonable request since not only are they averaging that for the season but until recently they were in the 10-11 range.  And also to have The Bills be able to force 12 TOs against GM was  very doable.  GM has not only been averaging 12 TOs/ game (5 against The Bills) but they have done so against weak teams ( SOS = D-.....  Teams that are much weaker than The Bills).  TOs are damaging where ever they occur....beginning , middle or end of the game.   In this game as well as the LOY  game they came  fast and frequent in the first half....digging  quick holes.    Sloppy play, bad passes and protecting the ball are fixable problems.   Again, this is just one way the computer saw the GM game as winnable.

Hope you are feeling better soon....sending healing energy your way and The Bills way  so you may both get back to your better selves. 

Weaker teams, but not teams weaker on defense.

The Bills grades are strengthened by 3pt shooting. We would be an F- without our great 3pt shooting.

[3star_recruit]

15 hours ago, The Wiz said:

I understand you've been under the weather. When you are feeling better you may wish to come back and reread some of these posts.

I was not trying to tell you or other posters things you already know about the TO problem.  The point I was trying to make was that by providing the data and simulation runs,  it  show how just a small change in TO results (4-7 per team)  can result in a huge point swing(19-21pts)  in a game.  And these changes are not extraordinary .  Asking the Bills to hold TOs to 12/gm is not an unreasonable request since not only are they averaging that for the season but until recently they were in the 10-11 range.  And also to have The Bills be able to force 12 TOs against GM was  very doable.  GM has not only been averaging 12 TOs/ game (5 against The Bills) but they have done so against weak teams ( SOS = D-.....  Teams that are much weaker than The Bills).  TOs are damaging where ever they occur....beginning , middle or end of the game.   In this game as well as the LOY  game they came  fast and frequent in the first half....digging  quick holes.    Sloppy play, bad passes and protecting the ball are fixable problems.   Again, this is just one way the computer saw the GM game as winnable.

Hope you are feeling better soon....sending healing energy your way and The Bills way  so you may both get back to your better selves. 

You are a numbers guy.  In addition to being one of worst defensive teams in D-1, this is one of the worst passing teams in D-1.  You're not going to survive in the 2nd half once the teams turn up the pressure if you're bad at passing AND you're bad at stopping teams on the other end.   

If the players aren't good at a particular skillset -- passing, defending -- I don't think that's fixable this year.  You can, for example, go from being a horrible defense to a below average defense.  You can only fix that problem by bringing in players who are better defenders.

The coaching staff hoped to have a Big Three to cover up their offensive and defensive deficiencies.  For much of the season they only had a Big One (Jimerson), recently they became a Big Two (Jimerson and Big Brad).  Not enough.  They need a healthy Parker.

This team is so bad at defense, they need to average 80 ppg to win.  Maybe after marginal improvement on defense they can get by with averaging 77.

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, 3star_recruit said:

You are a numbers guy.  In addition to being one of worst defensive teams in D-1, this is one of the worst passing teams in D-1.  You're not going to survive in the 2nd half once the teams turn up the pressure if you're bad at passing AND you're bad at stopping teams on the other end.   

If the players aren't good at a particular skillset -- passing, defending -- I don't think that's fixable this year.  You can, for example, go from being a horrible defense to a below average defense.  You can only fix that problem by bringing in players who are better defenders.

The coaching staff hoped to have a Big Three to cover up their offensive and defensive deficiencies.  For much of the season they only had a Big One (Jimerson), recently they became a Big Two (Jimerson and Big Brad).  Not enough.  They need a healthy Parker.

This team is so bad at defense, they need to average 80 ppg to win.  Maybe after marginal improvement on defense they can get by with averaging 77.

I am showing The Bills are giving up an average of 76 pts /gm,  not 80.  So if you think with some marginal defensive improvement The Bills could knock off 3 points that makes it 73 pts/gm.  SLU is currently averaging 73.5 pts on offense.  It sounds like you think with some marginal improvement on defense, we could start winning some games. 

I agree with you.

 

[3star_recruit]

27 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

I am showing The Bills are giving up an average of 76 pts /gm,  not 80.  So if you think with some marginal defensive improvement The Bills could knock off 3 points that makes it 73 pts/gm.  SLU is currently averaging 73.5 pts on offense.  It sounds like you think with some marginal improvement on defense, we could start winning some games. 

I agree with you.

 

With Big Brad in the lineup, we're giving up 79.

[3star_recruit]

The Good:  We won!  Gibby made 7 threes!!
Bad: With Big Brad in the lineup, we're now giving up 80 points a game.

[wgstl]

24 minutes ago, 3star_recruit said:

The Good:  We won!  Gibby made 7 threes!!
Bad: With Big Brad in the lineup, we're now giving up 80 points a game.

Not sure this one’s a lot on Brad

[VeniceMenace]

On 1/7/2024 at 6:54 PM, The Wiz said:

I am showing The Bills are giving up an average of 76 pts /gm,  not 80.  So if you think with some marginal defensive improvement The Bills could knock off 3 points that makes it 73 pts/gm.  SLU is currently averaging 73.5 pts on offense.  It sounds like you think with some marginal improvement on defense, we could start winning some games. 

I agree with you.

 

What about shooting more 3 point attempts per game—that seems low vs their success rate.