Double Bye Clinched?

[Bay Area Billiken]

Davidson wins at Duquesne 71-67. SLU defeated all 3 9-7 teams, Duquesne, George Mason, and George Washington. This Duquesne home loss should clinch the Double Bye for SLU. Am I correct, @TheWiz or anyone else out there knowledgeable of the matter? 

[CenHudDude]

6 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Davidson wins at Duquesne 71-67. SLU defeated all 3 9-7 teams, Duquesne, George Mason, and George Washington. This Duquesne home loss should clinch the Double Bye for SLU. Am I correct, @TheWiz or anyone else out there knowledgeable of the matter? 

 

6 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Davidson wins at Duquesne 71-67. SLU defeated all 3 9-7 teams, Duquesne, George Mason, and George Washington. This Duquesne home loss should clinch the Double Bye for SLU. Am I correct, @TheWiz or anyone else out there knowledgeable of the matter? 

That’s my understanding, but I’m not The Wiz.

[Taj79]

Yes.  Top Four.  Even if we lose the last two and finish at 11 and 7, we own the head-to-head tiebreakers on Duquesne, Mason and Geedubya.  Beat all three straight up.  

We have two games that are easily losable.  Duquesne hosts Umass and goes to Fordham.  Mason hosts Fordham and goes to Richmond.  Geedubya goes to Davidson and hosts VCU.  Logic suggest Duquesne beats Umass but loses at Fordham.  Finishes at 10 and 8.  Mason could take Fordham down and even beat a Richmond team that plays pretty well at home.  Winning both would pout them at 11 and 7.  Geedubya could win out or lose out and even if they accomplish the former, that's 11 and 7 also.  So there is really no risk to the top four finishers right as it stands.  

VCU has a two game lead with two to play.  Beat us and they are the regular season champs.  Lost to us and Geedubya, and that is 13 and 5 and it gets interesting.  Dayton hosts La Salle and then finishes with us.  Two wins and they are still in the running for the top spot.  Tied with VCU, and with the head-to-head even, it then reverts comparing records from the top down.  In such a scenario, Dayton would get the #1 based on sweeping us, provided they do and we beat VCU to even the top up at 13 and 5.  Fordham could win out and go 13 and 5 as well.  But they'd lose any tiebreaker to VCU and/or Dayton.  If all four of us go 13 and 5, you compare head-to-head amongst everyone.  We can't be there because if we were, that would mean beating Dayton and dropping them to fourth with six losses.  VCU would get first given a composite 2 and 1 record versus us and Fordham.  That would give Fordham second because they beat us.  

Any and all projected results above won't matter because the shite always hits the fan in March in the A10.  I believe the best we can finish is second but at least the double bye is secured.  

[Bay Area Billiken]

I believe SLU has clinched the Double Bye. 

The Three or More-Team Tie first tiebreaker is head-to-head competition using each team's record against the tied teams as a group rather than performance against individual teams.  

 

[SluSignGuy]

Not quite:

 

 

[Bay Area Billiken]

I’m afraid Stu is correct. SLU has not completely clinched the Double Bye, must avoid a 3 way tie with Fordham and Mason. That’s why that earlier Tweet said Mason had to lose to Dayton. 
 

We need Mason to lose to either Fordham or at Richmond. Of course, the Billikens could end the drama themselves by winning at either VCU or at home over Dayton. 
 

SLU’s magic number to clinch the double bye is 1. 

[Taj79]

I am not surprised I am wrong because in regards to the annual A10 kabuki dance youneverknow.

[Bay Area Billiken]

2 minutes ago, Taj79 said:

I am not surprised I am wrong because in regards to the annual A10 kabuki dance youneverknow.

Is this vintage A10 or what? You could throw a blanket over the whole league. 

[The Wiz]

36 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

I’m afraid Stu is correct. SLU has not completely clinched the Double Bye, must avoid a 3 way tie with Fordham and Mason. That’s why that earlier Tweet said Mason had to lose to Dayton. 
 

We need Mason to lose to either Fordham or at Richmond. Of course, the Billikens could end the drama themselves by winning at either VCU or at home over Dayton. 
 

SLU’s magic number to clinch the double bye is still 1. 

Yes it is not a clinch yet...magic number is still one due to the tie breaker....And the only one that can catch us is DQ....GM doesn't matter...A win by The Bills or a loss by DQ and we get the double bye...

I had run the simulations  before yesterday and the  thing that changed everything was the unexpected loss by Day to Mason. That created the 3 way tie which also changed the tiebreaker outcome  once Day was added to the mix.  I would normally have run the A10 seedings  again today but ran the VCU spread thread instead.  

FWIW, , we are still showing as the 4th team(double bye) in the most probable outcome.

As always, it isn't easy being a Bills fan.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Running through the scenarios, I believe the only way SLU misses the Double Bye would be in three way tie with Fordham and George Mason, all at 11-7.  That scenario would involve both SLU and Fordham losing their last 2 games, and Mason winning its last two.

SLU could clinch as early as Tuesday night by winning at VCU.  At the other end, this could go to the completion of Saturday's games, Duquesne at Fordham and Mason at Richmond.

[The Wiz]

39 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Running through the scenarios, I believe the only way SLU misses the Double Bye would be in three way tie with Fordham and George Mason, all at 11-7.  That scenario would involve both SLU and Fordham losing their last 2 games, and Mason winning its last two.

SLU could clinch as early as Tuesday night by winning at VCU.  At the other end, this could go to the completion of Saturday's games, Duquesne at Fordham and Mason at Richmond.

I tried that and it doesn't work.  In a true 3 way tie Mason, Fham and SLU,  we are in because DQ is out....The only way for a 3 way tie with Fham, Mason and us  is for DQ to lose to UMass and beat Fham...3 way tie ....Mason, Fham and us ...and we are in on the tiebreaker because DQ is not involved in the tie..  In that 3 way tie scenario we actually finish 3rd..DQ 4th and Fham is 5th and out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HoosierPal]

 

[The Wiz]

Again for simplification...magic number is one ...we win 1 game  and we are in ...OR   DQ loses 1 game and we are in

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[almaman]

3 hours ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Is this vintage A10 or what? You could throw a blanket over the whole league. 

and they wouldn't be missed

[Bay Area Billiken]

If all three finish 11-7, SLU loses the 3 way tie with Fordham and Mason by the 2nd tiebreaker. First tiebreaker is record of all 3 against each other, which all three would be 1-1. Then the next tiebreaker is won-loss record vs. highest common opponent, which is VCU. SLU would be 0-2 vs. VCU while Fordham and Mason are both 0-1 vs. VCU. 
 

This 3 way tie occurs by SLU losing its last 2 (@VCU and Dayton), Fordham losing its last 2 (@Mason, Duquesne), Mason winning its last 2 (Fordham, @Richmond), and Duquesne losing at home to UMass, winning at Fordham. 
 

So after rooting against Duquesne today vs. Davidson, we actually want Duquesne to defeat UMass in Pittsburgh Wed. Night. 

Or how about the Billikens just winning themselves, baby! They only need to win 1 of their last 2. I’ll take 2 just for prosperity, optics, and good trending. My mantra has always been if you’re going to play the game, win the game. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

https://youtu.be/E3iVVCttwPw

 

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

If all three finish 11-7, SLU loses the 3 way tie with Fordham and Mason by the 2nd tiebreaker. First tiebreaker is record of all 3 against each other, which all three would be 1-1. Then the next tiebreaker is won-loss record vs. highest common opponent, which is VCU. SLU would be 0-2 vs. VCU while Fordham and Mason are both 0-1 vs. VCU. 
 

This 3 way tie occurs by SLU losing its last 2 (@VCU and Dayton), Fordham losing its last 2 (@Mason, Duquesne), Mason winning its last 2 (Fordham, @Richmond), and Duquesne losing at home to UMass, winning at Fordham. 
 

So after rooting against Duquesne today vs. Davidson, we actually want Duquesne to defeat UMass in Pittsburgh Wed. Night. 

Or how about the Billikens just winning themselves, baby! They only need to win 1 of their last 2. I’ll take 2 just for prosperity, optics, and good trending. My mantra has always been if you’re going to play the game, win the game. 

These tiebreakers make my head spin and I agree on your statements.  The double match up with VCU may come back to bite us.  Here is the clause from the A10 Tie Breaker rules.  Best win that game and the rest of this is meaningless.

When arriving at another pair of tied teams, use each team’s record against the tied teams
          as a group. When comparing records against a group of teams, the higher winning  
          percentage will prevail. In case of tied percentages vs. the team or group of 1.000 or .000,
          the following shall apply: 2-0 is better than 1-0; 0-1 is better than 0-2.

Yes, Mason needs to lose at least one, if we take a double loss.  Mason is still alive for the third seed.  They would need a couple of miracles, but they just took out Dayton on their floor, so yaneverknow.  GW still could end up 11-7.  They play at Davidson and then home against VCU, who would have the title already wrapped up if they beat us, and nothing to play for.

[The Wiz]

I have run the software a number of times using the A10 formula  and the only favorable outcome involving SLU is for us to win once OR DQ to lose once.  There are other scenarios  where you can plug in Mason in a 3 way etc etc but they only work when DQ loses.....for example Mason , Fham, and SLU tie...we are in ...why?...because DQ is missing and that means they have a loss.

A guy is new in town and asks a local which way to the grocery  store...the local guy says if you make a right it is one block...if you make a left it is 24901 miles.

[HoosierPal]

 

[The Wiz]

23 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

 

Mason wins 2 ... DQ wins 2 and the Bills beat Dayton....Bills finish 3rd

[BrettJollyComedyHour]

22 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

 

A10 women's standings look just as jumbled. 

[Bay Area Billiken]

http://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=atlantic10m

Take the above link and click on Calculate Seeds. This is the most probable scenario, confirmed by Sagarin ratings.  The most probable scenario has SLU as the 4 Seed.

Of course, upsets happen, especially in the Atlantic 10 Conference.

SLU clinches the Double Bye by 1.  Winning at least 1 game this week (@VCU and Dayton);  2.  By George Mason losing at least 1 game this week (Fordham, @Richmond), OR 3. By Duquesne at home defeating UMass Wed. night. in Pittsburgh.  Thus, we go from rooting against Duquesne yesterday to rooting for Duquesne Wed.

As I see it, the only way SLU could not get the Double Bye would be this unlikely scenario:  SLU loses both games this week (@VCU and Dayton), Fordham loses both games this week (@Mason, Duquesne), Mason wins both games this week (Fordham, @Richmond), and Duquesne loses at home vs. UMass and wins at Fordham.

[HoosierPal]

1 hour ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

http://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=atlantic10m

Take the above link and click on Calculate Seeds. This is the most probable scenario, confirmed by Sagarin ratings.  The most probable scenario has SLU as the 4 Seed.

Of course, upsets happen, especially in the Atlantic 10 Conference.

SLU clinches the Double Bye by 1.  Winning at least 1 game this week (@VCU and Dayton);  2.  By George Mason losing at least 1 game this week (Fordham, @Richmond), OR 3. By Duquesne at home defeating UMass Wed. night. in Pittsburgh.  Thus, we go from rooting against Duquesne yesterday to rooting for Duquesne Wed.

As I see it, the only way SLU could not get the Double Bye would be this unlikely scenario:  SLU loses both games this week (@VCU and Dayton), Fordham loses both games this week (@Mason, Duquesne), Mason wins both games this week (Fordham, @Richmond), and Duquesne loses at home vs. UMass and wins at Fordham.

Cool calculator! 

I was sure we needed Mason to take an L somewhere in here to grease the double bye for us.  That three way tie would be a killer, particularly as the A10 was trying to give us a tougher schedule for an At Large, which is long, long gone.  (I wonder if they will do that again next season.)

[ARon]

20 hours ago, The Wiz said:

Again for simplification...magic number is one ...we win 1 game  and we are in ...

Yeah but we're not going to win one more so the other scenarios are of interest.

 

[SShoe]

This may have been said - but the absolute best case scenario to me is us getting slotted in the 2 or 3 seed with Fordham as the other 2 or 3 seed.  Happens if we go 2-0 and Fordham goes 2-0.  We can also go 1-1 if Dayton goes 0-2 (probably not happening) and Fordham goes 1-1.