Double Bye Clinched?

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, ARon said:

Yeah but we're not going to win one more so the other scenarios are of interest.

 

We still get the double bye even with 2 losses. There are many different permutations for us to get the double bye...there is 1 scenario that knocks out of the D bye...The Bills lose both games...UMass wins @ DQ ...Then DQ wins @Fham ....Mason beats Fham....then Mason wins @ Rich...chances of that all happening...2.7% ...In real life , the Bills would have to lose both games AND you would then need to roll a 12 with a pair of dice.

Have we clinched?...No... But I wouldn't bet against The Bills at this point to grab the double bye.

[HoosierPal]

This table says it all.  Click on it to view in full.  We have a 99.30% chance of a double bye, but 66.7% chance of the 4th seed.  Fordham has a 79.7% chance of a double bye, yet their highest % for a seed is 3rd, at 59.8%.  George Mason still alive with a 2.9% chance at a double bye.  Put some $ down on them tonight.  It would be a nice payout if they make it.

 

[CenHudDude]

16 hours ago, HoosierPal said:

This table says it all.  Click on it to view in full.  We have a 99.30% chance of a double bye, but 66.7% chance of the 4th seed.  Fordham has a 79.7% chance of a double bye, yet their highest % for a seed is 3rd, at 59.8%.  George Mason still alive with a 2.9% chance at a double bye.  Put some $ down on them tonight.  It would be a nice payout if they make it.

Fordham hasa 10.81% chance of finishing 5th though.  The Billikens only have a .71% chance of that.  In other words everything would have to go against the Billikens this week for them not to get the double bye.

 

[HoosierPal]

Dayton grabs Double Bye #2 with their win tonight.

[billikenbill]

On 2/27/2023 at 6:01 PM, The Wiz said:

We still get the double bye even with 2 losses. There are many different permutations for us to get the double bye...there is 1 scenario that knocks out of the D bye...The Bills lose both games...UMass wins @ DQ ...Then DQ wins @Fham ....Mason beats Fham....then Mason wins @ Rich...chances of that all happening...2.7% ...In real life , the Bills would have to lose both games AND you would then need to roll a 12 with a pair of dice.

Have we clinched?...No... But I wouldn't bet against The Bills at this point to grab the double bye.

At this point, betting on the Bills to do anything is pure folly because… SLU.

[HoosierPal]

Interesting update on the chart.  Our odds of a double bye went down from 99.3% to 98.9%.  Okay, nothing to worry about.  Still have the best chance at the 4th seed going from 66.7% to 78.9%. after last night's game.  See what happens tonight. 

 

[The Wiz]

9 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Interesting update on the chart.  Our odds of a double bye went down from 99.3% to 98.9%.  Okay, nothing to worry about.  Still have the best chance at the 4th seed going from 66.7% to 78.9%. after last night's game.  See what happens tonight. 

 

In the calculation  I made earlier in this thread we had a 97.3% chance to make the double bye vs 99.3 that the above chart originally forecast.  The difference was that I figured in the worst case scenario ie we would lose both the VCU and the Dayton games.  Now that we have lost to VCU , our chances have dropped .4% to 98.9%.  If we played Dayton this morning and lost our chances would drop to 97.3% as mentioned above.  Our chances  would drop more(slightly) than in the VCU game because we will be favored to beat Dayton (also slightly)

Hopefully, all this handwringing over a 37-1 chance to not make the double bye will be over today with a win by DQ over UMass. A DQ win  is not our only path to the double bye (hence the 37-1 odds) but it is the quickest and easiest.

[Bay Area Billiken]

The answer to the thread headline is now in the affirmative, Yes. 
SLU becomes the 3rd A10 team to clinch the Double Bye.

[Bay Area Billiken]

SLU has clinched no worse than the 4 seed and the Double Bye.

Even if SLU loses to Dayton, if Fordham loses at home to Duquesne, and Mason wins at Richmond, SLU would still get the 3 Seed. While both DUQ and Mason are slight underdogs in those games, they are two of the hottest teams in the A10.

[HoosierPal]

4 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

SLU has clinched no worse than the 4 seed and the Double Bye.

Even if SLU loses to Dayton, if Fordham loses at home to Duquesne, and Mason wins at Richmond, SLU would still get the 3 Seed. While both DUQ and Mason are slight underdogs in those games, they are two of the hottest teams in the A10.

Mason has won five in a row.  They beat Fordham last night in OT, with Odoro on the bench having fouled out in regulation time.  They have recent ROAD victories at Dayton and at GW.  I don't care what seed we get.  I'd rather not draw the Patriots.

[Bay Area Billiken]

19 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Mason has won five in a row.  They beat Fordham last night in OT, with Odoro on the bench having fouled out in regulation time.  They have recent ROAD victories at Dayton and at GW.  I don't care what seed we get.  I'd rather not draw the Patriots.

Per Sagarin, DUQ and Mason are both mere 1 point underdogs Sat.
 

SLU is Pick’em vs. Dayton, Dayton -.42, less than half a point. That game won’t affect SLU’s seeding, but could have an effect on what team SLU plays in the quarterfinals. If SLU beats Dayton, DUQ wins at Fordham, and Mason wins at Richmond, 3 seed SLU would play 6 seed Fordham, assuming Fordham wins in the 5-12 (15) round. That is the scenario avoiding Mason and Duquesne. Caveat: Hometwon Fordham fans are fired up in support of their resurrected Rams. Word is Fordham is bringing at least 2 buses filled with Fordham students from The Bronx to Brooklyn. 

[HoosierPal]

4 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

Per Sagarin, DUQ and Mason are both mere 1 point underdogs Sat.
 

SLU is Pick’em vs. Dayton, Dayton -.42, less than half a point. That game won’t affect SLU’s seeding, but could have an effect on what team SLU plays in the quarterfinals. If SLU beats Dayton, DUQ wins at Fordham, and Mason wins at Richmond, 3 seed SLU would play 6 seed Fordham, assuming Fordham wins in the 5-12 (15) round. That is the scenario avoiding Mason and Duquesne. Caveat: Hometwon Fordham fans are fired up in support of their resurrected Rams. Word is Fordham is bringing at least 2 buses filled with Fordham students from The Bronx to Brooklyn. 

Yes Fordham will have the 'home court advantage' but 150 or even 300 students in the Barkley Center will get lost.  But they should have the loudest section until or unless they play Dayton.

Our best case scenario is that a PIG team beats whomever we draw.  I really don't want to face Mason, Duquesne, Mason, Fordham or GW.  Our game against Dayton is somewhat meaningless, as Dayton has 2nd place wrapped up and whether we get 3rd or 4th seed really doesn't matter.  The only issue is Senior Night and the emotions surrounding it.  Typically that can be an extra spark to boost a team.  If I'm Dayton, my biggest concern is to not get Smith (or any other player) hurt.  Lot's of Flyer subs.

[wgstl]

26 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

 

  I really don't want to face Mason, Duquesne, Mason, Fordham or GW. 

If I could pick who I'd want to play, it would be #1 Fordham, GW, Mason, Dukes. 

[Scoop]

Dayton is a big game for multiple reasons. 20 wins, team confidence, need to get a big W at home for the fans, so this board doesn’t completely go global meltdown before Brooklyn.

[wgstl]

1 minute ago, Scoop said:

Dayton is a big game for multiple reasons. 20 wins, team confidence, need to get a big W at home for the fans, so this board doesn’t completely go global meltdown before Brooklyn.

Agreed.  I don't even know why I care, just beat dayton.

[Bay Area Billiken]

16 minutes ago, HoosierPal said:

Yes Fordham will have the 'home court advantage' but 150 or even 300 students in the Barkley Center will get lost.  But they should have the loudest section until or unless they play Dayton.

Our best case scenario is that a PIG team beats whomever we draw.  I really don't want to face Mason, Duquesne, Mason, Fordham or GW.  Our game against Dayton is somewhat meaningless, as Dayton has 2nd place wrapped up and whether we get 3rd or 4th seed really doesn't matter.  The only issue is Senior Night and the emotions surrounding it.  Typically that can be an extra spark to boost a team.  If I'm Dayton, my biggest concern is to not get Smith (or any other player) hurt.  Lot's of Flyer subs.

We should not underestimate the number of Fordham fans that will be at Barclays Center, which I expect will be significantly more than 150-300 students. (The Fordham message board relates that 3 Subway lines run from Fordham to Brooklyn.) The number of Rambunctious Fordham fans might approach the ~ 6,000 the Bonnies had in the ‘19 Final. Fordham has many alumni in the NY Tri-State Area. Fordham is 23-7, 11-6 in this season of resurrection, one of the Talks of the (Big) Town.

The 3 seed is slightly better than the 4 IMO. SLU will have to play someone on TH. Duquesne 108, Mason 120 (and Davidson 119) have better Sagarin ratings than Fordham 136. GW is way down the list at 186. The good Billikens beat all of them. SLU will be favored vs. any TH opponent. 

No SLU vs. Dayton game is meaningless. If and when the Big East expands, Dayton is a prime competitor. SLU needs to show it can beat Dayton in Men’s Basketball, can’t lose at home to Dayton. 

[cheeseman]

9 minutes ago, Scoop said:

Dayton is a big game for multiple reasons. 20 wins, team confidence, need to get a big W at home for the fans, so this board doesn’t completely go global meltdown before Brooklyn.

Well Ford and the team has earned our meltdown.  We all want them to be successful but honestly it is pretty hard to have any faith in them.

[The Valley Sucks]

1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

Yes Fordham will have the 'home court advantage' but 150 or even 300 students in the Barkley Center will get lost.  But they should have the loudest section until or unless they play Dayton.

Our best case scenario is that a PIG team beats whomever we draw.  I really don't want to face Mason, Duquesne, Mason, Fordham or GW.  Our game against Dayton is somewhat meaningless, as Dayton has 2nd place wrapped up and whether we get 3rd or 4th seed really doesn't matter.  The only issue is Senior Night and the emotions surrounding it.  Typically that can be an extra spark to boost a team.  If I'm Dayton, my biggest concern is to not get Smith (or any other player) hurt.  Lot's of Flyer subs.

Need to send a message and put doubt in Dayton's head. If we play them in the semi that could matter.

[dlarry]

The Bills backing their way into the double bye.

 

Hopefully the momentum form the Loyola game isn’t lost between now and their first A10 tourney game!

[Bay Area Billiken]

SLU did not “back in” to the Double Bye it actually earned. The double bye, whether a 3 or 4 seed, is based upon the entire body of A10 conference season work. Playing @VCU and Dayton the last 2 games is a scheduling sequence matter. Plus, by playing both twice, SLU is playing a tougher, unbalanced conference schedule than others. That is not a complaint, but it is a fact based reality. 

[billiken_roy]

1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

Yes Fordham will have the 'home court advantage' but 150 or even 300 students in the Barkley Center will get lost.  But they should have the loudest section until or unless they play Dayton.

Our best case scenario is that a PIG team beats whomever we draw.  I really don't want to face Mason, Duquesne, Mason, Fordham or GW.  Our game against Dayton is somewhat meaningless, as Dayton has 2nd place wrapped up and whether we get 3rd or 4th seed really doesn't matter.  The only issue is Senior Night and the emotions surrounding it.  Typically that can be an extra spark to boost a team.  If I'm Dayton, my biggest concern is to not get Smith (or any other player) hurt.  Lot's of Flyer subs.

when i was at the epic 2019 tourney in Brooklyn, the only school that probably had more than 300 people in attendance was St Bonaventure.   my point is if fordham indeed brings 300 students, considering they dont open the upper deck, and the tourney packs all attendees below and near the floor, 300+ attendees together will imo be loud in contrast to probably all the other schools there.

[dlarry]

9 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

SLU did not “back in” to the Double Bye it actually earned. The double bye, whether a 3 or 4 seed, is based upon the entire body of A10 conference season work. Playing @VCU and Dayton the last 2 games is a scheduling sequence matter. Plus, by playing both twice, SLU is playing a tougher, unbalanced conference schedule than others. That is not a complaint, but it is a fact based reality. 

Your right. My disappointment in the season is clouding my judgment. 
They earned the double bye during the A10 regular season.

I was just hoping they would head into the tournament on a little more of a roll! 

 

[wgstl]

12 minutes ago, Bay Area Billiken said:

SLU did not “back in” to the Double Bye it actually earned. The double bye, whether a 3 or 4 seed, is based upon the entire body of A10 conference season work. Playing @VCU and Dayton the last 2 games is a scheduling sequence matter. Plus, by playing both twice, SLU is playing a tougher, unbalanced conference schedule than others. That is not a complaint, but it is a fact based reality. 

I think what Dlarry is saying is this has more to do with blowing big leads, and losing to bad teams like UMASS and Richmond and still to some degree - barely getting in.

[CenHudDude]

1 hour ago, HoosierPal said:

Yes Fordham will have the 'home court advantage' but 150 or even 300 students in the Barkley Center will get lost.  But they should have the loudest section until or unless they play Dayton.

Our best case scenario is that a PIG team beats whomever we draw.  I really don't want to face Mason, Duquesne, Mason, Fordham or GW.  Our game against Dayton is somewhat meaningless, as Dayton has 2nd place wrapped up and whether we get 3rd or 4th seed really doesn't matter.  The only issue is Senior Night and the emotions surrounding it.  Typically that can be an extra spark to boost a team.  If I'm Dayton, my biggest concern is to not get Smith (or any other player) hurt.  Lot's of Flyer subs.

The Dayton game is “somewhat meaningless”?  Never.  Don’t forget that we have to win back the Arch Baron Cup.

[Taj79]

It's been my experience that Dayton and VCU both travel very well.  Of course, Dayton folks leave early due to their team losing out.  The others are middling.  Both St. Joe's and Temple (in the old days) traveled well down the 60-mile ACE to Atlantic City when we played this at Boardwalk Hall.  When SignKid graduated from Geedubya, well, there went their fan contingent.  One of my favorite memories was sitting with the Fordham Crew team.  The absurdity of that seemed appropriate; not so much this year.  

Fordhma looked like shite last night at Mason.  They didn't record a field goal over the last 16 minutes of the first half.  Yet trailed only by seven, 23 to 16, because Mason was just as inept.  How they took that to overtime was amazing.   And they lost it at the foul line in overtime, going 2 of 6 to start and falling behind to an Oduro-less lineup.  PG Ronald Politte took over.  Fordham also shot two of seven from the field in OT.  Overall, they shot 24% from the field and a horrid 12% from three.  Moore scored 21 but Quisenberry only 10 on 3-of-13 shooting.  Oduro had 17 but fouled out with 4 minutes to go.  Politte had 12, but he had 8 in the OT and assisted on two other dunks by Mason bigs.  Combined, the team had 33 turnovers and 55 fouls.  And Teddy Valentine was handing out technicals.  

Just another horrible display of A10 basketball.