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The Bills over Prov by 1


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Brutal game yesterday...If you have a strong stomach, you can take a look at the Wrap under the Md spread thread or you can just turn the page and move on..  In any case, all is not lost. The computer at the start of the season had us going 2-2 over this crucial 4 game stretch... we are now 1-1 . This is an important game not only for the numbers but for team momentum (flow)...Remember Prov came off a tough loss yesterday too. The winner today will be the team that wants it the most.

 

Chance 2 Dance

55%...The good news is we are still listed although our % took a big hit. I will not post C2D if we drop below 50%.  We dropped 17% since yesterday. We can regain some of that with a win today.  We remain an A- team ... Prov comes in with a B+.    We need a win to retain the A- and C2D standing.

Crucial 4 games

2 down 2 to go...A win today and we will still be in pretty good shape.

Let's take a look at the report card

 
...................SLU....................Prov..........................SLU..........................Prov

.................................OFF..........................................................DEF.............

PPG...............B+......................B...............................F+............................C-

FG%...............C+......................B+...........................B-.............................D

3P%..............B-........................B-..............................C-...........................F-...2nd worst ITN

FT%...............A.......................C+.................................................................

Reb...............B+........................D+.............................D+...........................A

 OFF Rebs  = total rebs...DEF Rebs = opp reb

UP...............Off...FT%.............Def.....none

Down.........Off...PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb......Def...PPG...FG%...3P%...Reb

Top 100 ITN (In The Nation)/ gm

SLU

Assts...Collins... 1st...unch

Reb...Okoro...21st...dn....Pickett...68th...dn

3PM...Jimerson...10th......up

Rebs/gm....The Bills...19th...dn

Def Rebs......The Bills ...23rd

Prov

Blks....Moore...26th

Injury /illness report and misc

The Bills

10/21/22...Rivera ....out for the season...foot surgery

11/13/22...Kramer...Red shirting the entire season

Prov

Berry...undisclosed injury...has missed last 4 games...Questionable for today

 

Key to the game.....3P shooting....Prov does not defend the 3 at all....we will get open shots BUT we still have to make them. 

 

WWN2D2W...Hopkins is their go to guy...hold him to 12pts 6rebs...another low depth team...they have a starting 6...after Hopkins hold the next 5 guys to 50 pts...Target slash...50/40/75...especially the 40...Rebs will be a battle , win the reb battle...TOs 11...keep them under 70 pts. 

Bottom line....As the spread says , this is a very close game...keep the errors down, make some shots, keep the Prov point total down and we win.

 

 
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1 minute ago, Old guy said:

I am positive that the Providence fans felt they should by all rights have won this game, but somehow they lost it.

They should feel lucky. If it wasn’t for a stretch at the end of the first half and the beginning of the second when we could do nothing right, we win that game by double digits.

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14 minutes ago, brianstl said:

They should feel lucky. If it wasn’t for a stretch at the end of the first half and the beginning of the second when we could do nothing right, we win that game by double digits.

Sorry but I feel lucky. Yes we had some bad calls earlier but got some very good calls later. I am sure they could pick plays where they say except for we win by double digits. 

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A  nice win...a needed win. What I liked most about this game is we came from behind. But this was not a case of Prov folding, it was an unrelenting will to win.  The team showed some grit.  After trailing by 6 at the half we dropped back to down 13 early in the 2nd half.   We could have easily folded at this point but we didn't.  At 16:05 down 13, we started to chip away at the lead...one point at a time...10min later we tied it . For the next 4 min the lead swung back and forth and then at 1:48 we were down 4...looking bleak at this point for the home town heroes.  Another fade away loss ??  Not tonight...the Bills dug in and through an unwavering determination finally took the lead at 26 sec left in the game and clinched the game  when Prov missed a desperation shot at the buzzer. ...Bills fans breathed a sigh of relief at that point.

As I said in the post game wrap in the Md spread thread but before the Prov game...The Md game was a double outlier. Both teams had an exceptional game...Md good , the Bills bad.  The fact that we beat Prov by almost the exact spread(Bills up by 1 with 4 sec left in the game) after the loss to Md is further conformation that the numbers  are right on and Saturday was an anomaly.

One last point before we get into the game  numbers, I read where some are ready to crown Md as the national champion or that we way under estimated them. Md is a good team...but so is SLU , Mia and Prov. If we were to play Md tomorrow... it again would be a close game. How could that be?  Yes, you could have a double outlier  again.  But it is not the most probable outcome.  We and the others have only played 5 games. It is to early to declare anybody anything at this point. In 3 more games, there will be enough real data to start drawing some conclusions about who the good teams are and who are the bad ones.  Get back to me if Md is 8-0.   Btw, the computer picked the Bills to be 4-1 after 5 games this season. So we are right where we are supposed to be.

Let's look at this game...

Key to the game.....3P shooting....Prov does not defend the 3 at all....we will get open shots BUT we still have to make them. ...This was right on and disappointing...we did have open shots but we were unable to make them...20% The saving grace is we were hot from inside the arc shooting a very strong 58% We also made the wise decision to slow up on 3PA , shooting only half of what we normally do.

Hopkins is their go to guy...hold him to 12pts 6reb ...this was a fail as he finished 20pts 9 rebs

after Hopkins hold the next 5 guys to 50 pts...this was a pass...they scored 47...made it by 3 pts...hmmm wasn't the final spread 3 pts.

Target slash...50/40/75...actual 48/20/88...looks good except for the 3s

Rebs will be a battle , win the reb battle ...Another fail 38-35 ...missed it by 3 ...but close enough to keep us in the game

keep them under 70 pts...again missed by 3 but just close enough

TOs 11...This may have been the key to the game...Prov had an outstanding 11  but we bested them with  9.   Why was this key?...Pts off TOs...Prov 18 ...the Bills 21.... again the magic 3 ...as in difference maker.

Bottom line....As the spread says , this is a very close game...keep the errors down, make some shots, keep the Prov point total down and we win...It was a good conclusion  pre game and still a good one post game.....4-1... I will take it at this point.

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One observation I made. Maryland blew the Bills. But it also did a job on Miami. MD was expected to win over Miami by 1 pt, they won by 18 pts. It looks to me that MD arrived at the tournament and just romped their way through it. I have no idea why but I would not doubt if this 2 day stretch of time turns out to be the best and most productive time of the whole season for Maryland.

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