The Wiz Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Ugly game last night...For those with a strong stomach ...see UTM thread for post game analysis As Coach K would say...next game The Bills have fallen to C after yesterday's game. While that doesn't seem like much it is still a lot for 1 game. Some will argue with the C designation but that's where we are now....an average D1 team. C teams are frequently inconsistent... sometimes dominant, sometimes lost. Great wins with flashes of greatness, sometimes terrible plays that make you shake your head.. Want to see a bad team ...then look at the Bills last year after 9 games (F+). We may get there again but we are not there now. So how can i pick the Bills to win during a Board meltdown? Ind St is also a C team that is trending down...in fact they are trending down faster than we are. Numbers wise they are very similar to us in many ways. I am showing on a neutral court this game would be OT. The spread is a home field advantage...You all better be yelling loud next game. Here is what we need to do to win.. Keep the good stuff going...while the last game was dismal there were some good takeaways...FT shooting...88%...and TOs ..12...These were 2 weak spots that will be important in a tight game. INST slashline...36% / 27% Hold Brown to 11 pts.....Scott is their shooter...don't foul him ..especially on 3's...83% T Reb 34...Smith 4 reb Bills slashline....46/ 33 / 72 TO 12....Reb 37 Bottomline....If we can avoid mistakes AND play 2 halves we should win....It won't be easy..but hey, that's what being a Bills fan is all about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box and Won Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 .. Want to see a bad team ...then look at the Bills last year after 9 games (F+). We may get there again but we are not there now. In your Bills Outlook thread the other day you said a C- was the worst-case scenario. How badly would we have to do to get all the way back down to an F+? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 In your Bills Outlook thread the other day you said a C- was the worst-case scenario. How badly would we have to do to get all the way back down to an F+? It would be difficult . You would need for the team to collapse. There are some who think that is happening now but the numbers don't bear that out at this point. A loss to Ind St would be another damaging loss but even if they blew us out it might drop us to only C-. Then too it is not just what we do but what the teams we have played do and the teams they play. Each game we play makes it more difficult to move up or down grade wise. That is why by the time conference play starts the grade movement narrows to 1 notch. Could we move to F+ again? It is possible but not probable at this time. Another way of saying this is....Are we as bad as last year..Not now.....It's possible later but not probablle. For now we are a better team than last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Agree Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenbill Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Ugly game last night...For those with a strong stomach ...see UTM thread for post game analysis As Coach K would say...next game The Bills have fallen to C after yesterday's game. While that doesn't seem like much it is still a lot for 1 game. Some will argue with the C designation but that's where we are now....an average D1 team. C teams are frequently inconsistent... sometimes dominant, sometimes lost. Great wins with flashes of greatness, sometimes terrible plays that make you shake your head.. Want to see a bad team ...then look at the Bills last year after 9 games (F+). We may get there again but we are not there now. So how can i pick the Bills to win during a Board meltdown? Ind St is also a C team that is trending down...in fact they are trending down faster than we are. Numbers wise they are very similar to us in many ways. I am showing on a neutral court this game would be OT. The spread is a home field advantage...You all better be yelling loud next game. Here is what we need to do to win.. Keep the good stuff going...while the last game was dismal there were some good takeaways...FT shooting...88%...and TOs ..12...These were 2 weak spots that will be important in a tight game. INST slashline...36% / 27% Hold Brown to 11 pts.....Scott is their shooter...don't foul him ..especially on 3's...83% T Reb 34...Smith 4 reb Bills slashline....46/ 33 / 72 TO 12....Reb 37 Bottomline....If we can avoid mistakes AND play 2 halves we should win....It won't be easy..but hey, that's what being a Bills fan is all about. LOL. Wiz, you're the man but my God, Indiana State must suck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 -here comes Ind St who we beat last year on their floor, do they play to avenge that result? do we sit back saying we beat them last year at their place? -that's why they play the games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 The Billikens do suck. The thing is that the teams we are scheduling suck just as bad or worse. We are a better team than last year.. but considering how bad last year it is very hard to be that bad again. We are functioning on a level of middling OVC teams.. We just have the budget to pile in buy games. It is god damned hard to lose at home. It truly is. The 20-point recovery on UTM yesterday was proof of this. You have to suck to lose at home. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billboy1 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 We are a better team than last year???? Really. It is very hard to be that bad again?? We're sure as he!! trying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dwayne's_World Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Didn't last year's team at least win these types of buy games? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 We are a better team than last year???? Really. It is very hard to be that bad again?? We're sure as he!! trying. We are a better team this year. So I set up a game between the 2014 Bills and the 2015 Bills....Adjusted last year's team numbers to fit into this year's matrix of teams...The results... Bills 2015 ( C ) over Bills 2014 ( F + ) by 11 A significant beating Questions....Yes the Fetz is a neutral court...And yes Crews 2014 is coaching against Crews 2015...and yes it was a quick game (no timeouts) ...And no, I didn't have to change the fans...same ones left early Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Didn't last year's team at least win these types of buy games? In the non conference schedule we were 8-5 last year with wins against SIUC (by 3), @Indiana State, NC A&T (by 3), Bradley (by 3), Rockhurst, SIUE (by 6), Texas-Pan American (by 6), and Vermont (by 3) and losses to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Mississippi State (by 25), @Wichita State (by 29), South Dakota State, and Vanderbilt. So we had some bad losses in non conference play and were close to disaster in a number of the wins. Thru the opening 4 games we did a better job of pulling away late from the weaker opponents (games where the team showed some of the same weaknesses, but also the ability to go on runs and pull away), but things appear to be trending in the wrong direction since the encouraging win over North Florida so the next week could be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 We are a better team this year. What did you have us rated prior to conference play last year? I see in a thread prior to the Vandy game that you had just barely moved us up to D- after the Vermont win and then to F+ after losing to Vandy. Just looking at our results from last year and how close our non conference wins were, I can definitely see why we are rated better this year. One thing I found interesting with regards to last season, you had us rated at C- prior to the Wichita State game and then we went onto get blown out by them and lost to South Dakota State dropping us to F+. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 What did you have us rated prior to conference play last year? At this time last year we were F+...By the start of conference play we climbed to D- continued up to D+ ..peaking around the 1st VCU game...then started a slide at that point which took us back down to D-. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Last year the two embarrassing home losses were Corpus Christi and SD State--they ended up at 211 and 99 in RPI. So far Morehead and TN-Martin are 98 and 217. Disturbingly similar, but there are also two depressing differences: 1) We never trailed by double digits in the two losses last year and actually led in the final three minutes of both. In both the losses this year we trailed by 20+ and for the entire second half of both games. And 2) we still have two more chances to lose to more bad non-conference teams at home this year. So yeah, the wins and "good" losses have been better this year, but the bad losses have also been a hell of a lot worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 At this time last year we were F+...By the start of conference play we climbed to D- continued up to D+ ..peaking around the 1st VCU game...then started a slide at that point which took us back down to D-. In my books (and i've said as much all year), this team has looked like a D from the start. I wish the Wiz had graded my papers back in college. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billboy1 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Too bad statistics don't do the actual playing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonka Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 In my books (and i've said as much all year), this team has looked like a D from the start. I wish the Wiz had graded my papers back in college. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Too bad statistics don't do the actual playing +1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Too bad statistics don't do the actual playing I think a stats book could do a better job handling timeouts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bonwich Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 I think a stats book could do a better job handling timeouts. That's a coin toss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 That's a coin toss. So 50/50? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BACKHANDtheRICAN Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Wiz gets dominated again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted December 20, 2015 Author Share Posted December 20, 2015 Ugly game last night...For those with a strong stomach ...see UTM thread for post game analysis As Coach K would say...next game The Bills have fallen to C after yesterday's game. While that doesn't seem like much it is still a lot for 1 game. Some will argue with the C designation but that's where we are now....an average D1 team. C teams are frequently inconsistent... sometimes dominant, sometimes lost. Great wins with flashes of greatness, sometimes terrible plays that make you shake your head.. Want to see a bad team ...then look at the Bills last year after 9 games (F+). We may get there again but we are not there now. So how can i pick the Bills to win during a Board meltdown? Ind St is also a C team that is trending down...in fact they are trending down faster than we are. Numbers wise they are very similar to us in many ways. I am showing on a neutral court this game would be OT. The spread is a home field advantage...You all better be yelling loud next game. Here is what we need to do to win.. Keep the good stuff going...while the last game was dismal there were some good takeaways...FT shooting...88%...and TOs ..12...These were 2 weak spots that will be important in a tight game. INST slashline...36% / 27% Hold Brown to 11 pts.....Scott is their shooter...don't foul him ..especially on 3's...83% T Reb 34...Smith 4 reb Bills slashline....46/ 33 / 72 TO 12....Reb 37 Bottomline....If we can avoid mistakes AND play 2 halves we should win....It won't be easy..but hey, that's what being a Bills fan is all about. Another ugly game. There is one stat that did us in....TO's...22... way to many...It is like giving up 10 walks in a baseball game and expecting to win. The 22 TO's leads to us being outscored 28- 13 on points off of TO's...and there is the difference in the game. For those that are a glutton for punishment ...here are the rest of the stats....... The last game we couldn't shoot baskets but shot 88% FT's and had only 12 TO's...This game was just the opposite ...great shooting but bad FT% and lots of TO"s. What we needed to do to win.....................Actual Bills slash..........45 / 33 / 72.......................52%- pass/ 50%- double pass / 57% fail...missed FTs =2 pts TO's ......................12...................................22............Double fail Reb.........................37..................................33.............Fail Ind St slash.............36.................................41.5........Fail....an extra 3 baskets = 6pts ................................27..................................26.1.......pass Brown......................11...................................24.........Double fail Scott ....................Shooter & FTs..................off on FTs and 3s...but still shot 50% overall Reb..........................34...................................31..............pass Smith Reb................4.....................................6.................fail Another couple of FT stats that were killers....Brown who is averaging 63.5% for the season ....shot 100%...14-14 ...plus the team as a whole normally shoots 64%...shoots 83% Bottomline from original post........avoid mistakes and play 2 halves.......we didn't and we didn't. and we lose Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 How many more games will we be favored in the rest of the way. I'd think only 2 or 3. Obviously numbers change but as of now it's hard to see us winning a whole lot more Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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