hsmith19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think they announced in August that he would be out for the whole season. Everyone knew going in Crews was going to be the coach for at least the entirety of that season. The November announcement was just that he wouldn't be coming back in the future. I remember it as seeming like stating the obvious by that time. His contract was going to be up anyway, and he ended up dying a couple weeks later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgeldmacher Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 With average improvement I do not see a Tourney team in 2 years. With even a couple guys showing uncommon improvement, I see it for sure in 2 years and if 4 or 5 guys do it, I could see it next year. I really want to be drinking the Koolaid. I have season tickets and have seen the Billikens play on the road for each of the past 5 seasons. I agree that with average improvement, we won't be in the tourney in two years. My problem, and you and I (and Pistol) just disagree, is that I don't see reason to believe that uncommon improvement will occur with any player, much less 4 or 5 guys. I typically formulate my opinions on what my eyes see, and they are not seeing players having uncommon improvement under Coach Crews. If this trend continues, we're going to have catastrophic down turn for our program at the worst possible time since were are trying to get an elite player, who we actually have a shot at, to come (JT) and get into our dream conference (BE). These dream scenarios have expiration dates and right now our program is being left on the counter on a warm day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 By his own admission, Crews inherited a great roster in 2012-2013 and put them on autopilot, letting the juniors and seniors keep running things as Majerus had. It was November 19 before SLU and Majerus announced he wouldn't be coaching that season. The players in that class collectively made a nice leap. But in their senior year, the offense declined on the whole even as a couple of their averages went up (Jett, mostly, as he carried the team on his back in the second half when offense was stalling). It seems bizarre to me that Crews would be credited for the way these guys decided to step up in late 2012. It seems much, much different when we're talking about transfers or younger guys that he's been coaching for multiple seasons now. It's every single class after the Jett-Evans-Loe-McCall class that I worry about. Building on this point, the previous class seemed to all have chips on their shoulders. Evans clearly worked hard at his game and his body, and the same can be said, albeit to a lesser degree, for Jett, McCall, and Loe. I get the feeling (and this could just be my flawed perception) that this freshman class expected to come in and win from Day 1 without putting in the necessary blood, sweat, and tears. I am hoping that this current class will have the intense desire that the previous class displayed. They need to be willing to get their asses in the gym and weight room every single day over the summer...or else we could be in a real pickle come next season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARon Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I don't think these freshman don't expect to have to work. But as freshmen I doubt they truely know just how hard the work really will be. Yarborough in particular I think has just hit a wall. That's something you only learn the hard way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenboy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 He has hit a wall but it will be up to this staff to show him the way. I also see the way the O is being run by the guards and Ash puts him at a disadvantage as well. Not to mention, defenses know his tendencies and he has made it easier to be guarded because his shot selection is awful. When he starts to become more selective about his shots, his efforts will be rewarded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARon Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Some interesting stats courtesy of Marty Kovarik's Twitter @martyk23. - Roby has the 2nd lowest turnover rate of any SLU freshman guard in the last 10 years. - Crawford has the 2nd highest True Shooting % of any Billiken in the last 13 years. Only behind Hall of Famer Kevin Lisch. - Reynolds has the highest fouls drawn rate of any Billiken in 16 years. - Gillmann has the 2nd highest assist rate of any Billiken big man in the last 12 years. - The Billikens rank as the 9th least experienced team in D1 yet they have more wins than over 105 D1 teams. (This is reminds me that while we keep hearing about team that are nearly as inexperienced as the Bills doing better. Who is looking for more experienced teams performing worse than us.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billikenboy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Some interesting stats courtesy of Marty Kovarik's Twitter @martyk23. - Roby has the 2nd lowest turnover rate of any SLU freshman guard in the last 10 years. - Crawford has the 2nd highest True Shooting % of any Billiken in the last 13 years. Only behind Hall of Famer Kevin Lisch. - Reynolds has the highest fouls drawn rate of any Billiken in 16 years. - Gillmann has the 2nd highest assist rate of any Billiken big man in the last 12 years. - The Billikens rank as the 9th least experienced team in D1 yet they have more wins than over 105 D1 teams. (This is reminds me that while we keep hearing about team that are nearly as inexperienced as the Bills doing better. Who is looking for more experienced teams performing worse than us.) Great info. Shows you that we are a good team that needs time to develop and a good coaching staff to get the best out of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If you count games that he didn't play in, Manning is just 3 wins away from being the winningest Billiken ever Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsmith19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 With all due respect and not intending to dis anyone, including Kenpom or the Wiz, I do not see how "luck" can be measured in a standard reproducible fashion. I assume whatever ratings we get for "luck" are based upon speculation or personal bias. Can anyone describe how to measure luck in case I am wrong here? It's mostly about close games, but I wonder if either of them incorporate FT "defense" into their equations. Seems like maybe that should count as luck, and that is the one thing we are "best" at in terms of the national rankings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 With all due respect and not intending to dis anyone, including Kenpom or the Wiz, I do not see how "luck" can be measured in a standard reproducible fashion. I assume whatever ratings we get for "luck" are based upon speculation or personal bias. Can anyone describe how to measure luck in case I am wrong here? I discussed the "luck factor" in the GDT thread "win this one for Dr. P".( post 268) Basically , it means any game where 2 teams finish within 5 points of one another (including OT games regardless of the final score) are worth less in that ranking model. As I pointed out in the other thread, I use one in my model. I hate the word "luck" in this usage but it is what sport stat geeks use. It goes on the assumption that when a game is within 5 pts, it becomes "luck" .I would use the word random instead. The idea is a close game is determined by factors other than skill and coaching....a bad bounce, a player slips, a bad call by a ref, etc etc. Because these games are considered "lucky" they are not weighted as much as other games. The "luck" factor is just a deviation from the norm...usually 60% or 40%. So if you played 10 games and won 6 , you would be considered "lucky". Conversely, if you won 4 you would be considered "unlucky" The Bills this year are 4-3 in close games...56%...so they are neutral. If they win the next close one (pushing them to 62%) , they would be "lucky" (in more ways than one) And why do KenPom and I differ? Because I think he uses 6 pts. In any case,to me it is just a random deviation and given a large enough sample size it would revert to the mean. So if I don't like the term "luck" and it just seems like an aberration, why use it? Because most model systems use it AND it seems to work. One last thing, before you all write posts saying this is stupid or doesn't make sense and arguing about what liuck really means...this system of close game weightings has been determined by the STAT GOD and therefore that is the way it is. It will not be removed from any models until a better system comes along. Right now these models seem to work the best. "Do you feel lucky, punk?....Clint Eastwood....Dirty Harry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Here's why I'm positive: A list of the losses, that I've arranged by drubbing-size, in my own opinion. Stompings: MissSt (Neutral) @Wich St @Davidson Semi-Stomp: Vanderbilt, @GM Second Half Stompings: @Dayton (Billikens down 1 with 17:20 left in second half) @Fordham Close Losses: SD St: Billkens up 1 with 2:00 left in second half, then fell apart TA&M-CC: Billikens up 1 with 2:50 left in second half, then fell apart RI : 50 - 46 with 5 minutes left, fizzled out after that VCU: Down to the wire, last second win for VCU UMASS: Down to the wire @GW: Tied 66-66 with 4:00 minutes left in second half, hung in there until the end Dayton: Billikens up 1 with 3:15 left in second half My main point, and the reason I'm optimistic, lies within the games listed under 'Close Losses'. I think it should be noted that the losses in the other categories have not been home games (with the exception of Vanderbilt). The SD State and TA&MCC losses can be attributed to early season issues, not knowing how to close out a game. Four of the close losses have been to the teams currently tied for 1st in the A10. And GW is tied for 5th. I feel like there is a tendency to analyze our players individually, to put each player in a vacuum, and then piecemeal all of those individal assessments together to come up with a conclusion about the whole team. I prefer to look at the team from an outside-in approach and decide if the team is displaying growth as a unit. I believe the Billikens have already proven that they have the chops, athleticism, desire, talent, and balance to be very good, just by hanging in there with some very good teams. This has been a fluid lineup for the most part, which provides its own challenges, and the Billikens are still finding ways to stay in close games. Closing out a close game takes experience, strength, iq, poise and maturity....all of the things our team doesn't have....yet. I don't see how we can conclude that we haven't seen the potential for progress. After listing all of the close games, I remembered how fun each game was to watch. I'm definitely not bored. luv the headings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 I was just saying that listing all of our close losses ignores that we have also won a lot of close games. I am a management consultant for a small energy consulting firm with a background in finance and accounting, so definitely not rocket science. 32 years of age. Went to high school at Chaminade, college at SLU, and got a MBA at SIUE. Trying to think if there is anything else of note. I worked for the basketball program when I was at SLU as a student manager (one season for Romar and three for Soderberg). Not blessed with a very large penis, but what can you do. any notables in your years @ Chaminade? Before Lee guess Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 If you count games that he didn't play in, Manning is just 3 wins away from being the winningest Billiken ever Would that count? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Yeah, I think he did, although i don't know where the post is. Kenpom also measures "luck," which in my understanding just means "outcomes that my system doesn't account for" (but I could definitely be wrong on that) and has the Bills as the 45th "luckiest" team. watching this season the last thing that jumps in my mind is lucky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 any notables in your years @ Chaminade? Before Lee guess TheChosenOne and I were in Lee's class. Current CCP head coach Frank Bennett was also in our class. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 TheChosenOne and I were in Lee's class. Current CCP head coach Frank Bennett was also in our class. Did SLU recruit Lee, or did he just tell us it wasn't worth it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 Did SLU recruit Lee, or did he just tell us it wasn't worth it? They recruited him for a while, but he was never the least bit interested. I heard him say as much our junior year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheChosenOne Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 They recruited him for a while, but he was never the least bit interested. I heard him say as much our junior year. I was going to say that I know Romar and SLU recruited him, but that there was little interest from him. I remember him mentioning how sad SLU's facilities were in comparison to some of the other programs he visited. I don't remember who his finalists were beyond Florida (obviously) and North Carolina. I know he visited Duke and was recruited by Quinn Snyder and Mizzou as well as Illinois I am sure, but I do not recall who all it came down to. I know Beal was primarily down to Florida and Kansas and I think his finalists included Illinois, Mizzou, and Duke. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pistol Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 I can't find a ton about Lee's final list (so many dead links), but found this and this, with some interesting quotes: "One of the top college basketball prospects in the class of 2001, St. Louis forward David Lee, chose Florida over Kansas, Missouri, Duke, North Carolina and Kentucky. "We tried to recruit David Lee extremely hard," KU coach Roy Williams said of the 6-foot-9, 240-pounder from Chaminade High, who takes a 12.3 scoring, 8.0 rebounding average into tonight's game. "I think David is potentially one of the great players in college basketball." "Picked Florida over Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas and Illinois." I think I remember Duke being the strongest of the other contenders. Here's a July 2000 article about Duke and Lee with a quote that was a little too optimistic for the NC schools: "Although the Chaminade Preparatory College standout has made it clear that Duke and UNC top his list, the natural lefty has already visited Kansas and he is planning to visit Kentucky and Missouri in the near future. Lee is further considering Illinois and Florida, while Stanford is rumored to be a longshot." A little down the page, there's a quote about James White: "Like Lee, White is said to be eyeing crosstown rivals Duke and UNC as his top two choices. And while White's more polished shooting touch has him currently favored over Lee by recruiting analysts, the Blue Devils don't seem as keen on the Maryland native." White and Lee both went to Florida as freshmen (Kwame Brown was the other commitment in that class, but went straight to the NBA), even though White transferred to UC not long after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 TheChosenOne and I were in Lee's class. Current CCP head coach Frank Bennett was also in our class. thnx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It seems silly to say that we can't blame crews for lack of player development and also then say he is handicapped by 3 inexperienced sophomores. There were plenty of chances to get those 3 much more PT last year (and better preserve the legs of our seniors by tourney time). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It seems silly to say that we can't blame crews for lack of player development and also then say he is handicapped by 3 inexperienced sophomores. There were plenty of chances to get those 3 much more PT last year (and better preserve the legs of our seniors by tourney time). -I agree with this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 It seems silly to say that we can't blame crews for lack of player development and also then say he is handicapped by 3 inexperienced sophomores. There were plenty of chances to get those 3 much more PT last year (and better preserve the legs of our seniors by tourney time). no we had an opportunity to win last year and we took it. good move. and agbeko was hurt a lot, he imo is the player with the biggest upside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JettFlight5 Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 He had to take the opportunity to win. But there were some non-conference games where the young guys could have played more last year. It wasn't until league play that every game went down to the last possession. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufanskip Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 no we had an opportunity to win last year and we took it. good move. and agbeko was hurt a lot, he imo is the player with the biggest upside. I'm with you on this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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