The State of the Season

[ACE]

It seems like some of the freakout on the board has subsided after the Indiana State game. The performance was more reminiscent of what we saw much of January and February of last year. Indiana State actually did a really nice job of counter-punching throughout the game, but unlike the Wichita State game, we punched back and finished it out. I know WS is a better opponent, but I think we win that game if we play like we did on Wednesday.

In the big picture, really the only thing that bothers me is the last three minutes of the Wichita State game. They are a heck of a team, so not a bad loss, but certainly a lost opportunity to get a good win. The Wisconsin game is certainly a "good loss", so we're really not that far away from where we should be at this point. We won a couple of potentially tricky games, Valpo on the road and Indy State. A BIG game is the Vandy game. A game we certainly can win, but it is always tough to win on the road, unless we are playing somebody like SIUE. If we win that one, I will feel pretty good about how the nonconference schedule went. If we lose, I will be a bit disappointed, as I will feel like we are still about a game behind where we should be.

We're OK at this point. Some of the hand ringing over style points in the buy games is a bit ridiculous. Some people are expecting perfection. Plenty of good teams have subpar performances in the nonconference schedule - Duke v. Vermont, Michigan State v. Oakland are just a couple of many examples out there. We had our share last year too - trailing North Texas and Savannah State in the last 5 minutes.

We're still in position to have an outstanding season, but I have a few questions about this team. Can we avoid some of these scoring droughts? We still had one in the first half against Indiana State, but that was it. Last year, we were so good at times at building a lead and keeping the foot on the gas pedal. I wonder if this team is lacking a "true point guard" to run the offense when things get stagnant. Remember we had a lot of uneven play until KM came back last year. I love MM and JJ, but I still don't really view them as guys who really run the offense and get things organized the way KM could. I know JJ gets a ton of assists, but he is not really the prototypical point. MM has always seemed to be more of a 2/1 type guard. Same with what I have seen of AM. I was encouraged that McBroom seemed to slow things down a bit last game and let the offense flow rather than try to force things like he has done in previous games. I hate to say it, at the risk of having that d-bag from Valpo come back, but we could use a player like Keith Carter, who was described as more of a pure point, to be in our guard rotation.

Also, I think people should drop this expectation that the freshmen were going to make a big impact this year. I still think Reggie can work back in the rotation when he gets healthy, but that's it. The freshman have played about as much as I thought they would. This is a veteran team that will go as far as our seniors carry us. The future is now. Quit worrying about playing time for the freshmen. It also seems Crews may be willing to go with a shorter rotation and I'm fine with that. He will play 8 and even 7 primarily against good opponents.

[JettFlight5]

Indiana State (who is a good team) cured some of the disaster scenarios, that's for sure. Wichita State at home is a game the Bills should have had; but if that's the one we're saying that about in March, I'm not too worried about the effects of it. Vandy is going to be a tough game simply because of its location...and Yale isn't terrible (lost to BE's Providence by 2). Run the table until January 11, and 13-2 going into league play with the only losses to Top 10 teams will be a nice start.

The seniors are the go-to guys, and they're going to be the ones driving the bus the rest of the way.

[bauman]

Ace, whiile I'm hopeful that the ISU represents a turning point for the season, it takes more than one game to convince me we are on track to repeat last year and even go beyond (in the Tournament) as many of us projected before the season began. I don't have confidence in any of our guards to control a game for any significant amount of time so as to prevent the droughts we seem to experience just about every game.

I am pleased with the progress JM seems to have made and while he is no RL, at least I don't see a significant dropoff when he spells Rob for short periods. Same with AM giving us a lift when he replaces either MM or JJ. My only concern at the 1/2 position is a bit of a tendency to make some careless turnovers. Which takes me to my biggest concern for this season-the rest of the short rotation JC is using, JB and GG. If you are satisfied with what they are giving us, I suggest you adjust your expectations. If JB can't produce from outside what is he going to give us? GG is just a bundle of energy with not much else except a few rebounds against 2nd-3rd tier teams. He makes at least 2 mistakes every game that drive JC up the wall and cause him to be pulled from the game. That group of seven ain't gonna cut it unless MM starts playing like he cares about offense, JJ starts making free throws, RL continues to play like he did against ISU and DE becomes the DE he was at the end of last year.

If all of this happens-great. Left unsaid is any help Reggie can provide. My only concern there is that JC doesn't seem to want to play his most recent recruits so I don't know what to expect there. My bigger concern, to repeat myself (sorry) is not the title of this thread but another thread which would be entitled "State of the Program." With who we are playing, even in the final minutes of a double digit win against a quality program, we will enter next year with the following short list of players who have any significant experience as a Billiken---JM, GG and AM. That's it-pretty scary huh. I really like our incoming freshmen but if JC doesn't want to play freshmen we got big problems next year. Hardly the way to build a PROGRAM! I continue to believe that we need to get TL into some games instead of the Engegizer Bunny and MC in instead of the 5th year senior, JB who forgot how to shoot from the perimeter.

[brianstl]

We still got stuff to fix for this year before we can worry about getting guys minutes for next year.

[bauman]

We still got stuff to fix for this year before we can worry about getting guys minutes for next year.

I believe fixing stuff this year would be easier if we got some minutes for RA, TL and MC. Who's playing in front of them are things that "need to be fixed."

I know most of the Board has a different opinion than mine and that's fine. I just want a consistently building program that goes to the NCAA every year-I don't want to see a big drop off next year, especially if we get the BE invite. I want us doing everything necessary to be a Gonzaga, not a George Mason.

[Billikenswin]

I believe fixing stuff this year would be easier if we got some minutes for RA, TL and MC. Who's playing in front of them are things that "need to be fixed."

I know most of the Board has a different opinion than mine and that's fine. I just want a consistently building program that goes to the NCAA every year-I don't want to see a big drop off next year, especially if we get the BE invite. I want us doing everything necessary to be a Gonzaga, not a George Mason.

No one disagrees that we want the team to excel in every phase of the game and be the best they can be. But no team has perfect players, particularly perfect players coming off the bench. But we have tough hardnosed defenders who when they shoot the ball well can play with almost everyone. But the key is now and always will be the defense. I thought the rotation used for the Indy St game was excellent. We defended well continuiously and our offense was solid except for a bit of a down period in the second half of the first half. But that happens against good teams and we still won by 17 points in a game which everyone on this board thought would be a very tough game to win. I have been to practice and seen the frosh and they all have talent and potential but they are green and need more practice to understand our defensive strategies which are complex and difficult to pick up. They are working hard, as is Ash, and they will be players in the future but this staff really understands what we are trying to accomplish on the floor and they understand what it takes to get it done and they know how to use the players they have in the best way. Next year will be very different and I think very exciting in terms of how many new talented but green players we will need to integrate with manning, glaze, mcbroom and Ash and the then three sophs. But the staff knows that we now need to focus on this year and the rotation of the experieinced players so we have the best chance to win.

[dlarry]

I believe fixing stuff this year would be easier if we got some minutes for RA, TL and MC. Who's playing in front of them are things that "need to be fixed."

I know most of the Board has a different opinion than mine and that's fine. I just want a consistently building program that goes to the NCAA every year-I don't want to see a big drop off next year, especially if we get the BE invite. I want us doing everything necessary to be a Gonzaga, not a George Mason.

we are seeing a Gonzaga system right here.

Look at their roster.

5 freshman 1 is being redshirted, out of the other 4 the leader in minutes has 41 on the season. He has played in 8 of 11 games. So 5 minutes a game for their freshman leader.

The other 3 are around or under 20 minures on the season.

[AlumniFan]

Yes, a 10-2 team with losses to top ten teams needs a "turning point". Good grief.

[bauman]

Yes, a 10-2 team with losses to top ten teams needs a "turning point". Good grief.

I certainly didn't mean a turning point from the perspective of our record, but I did mean it from a how-we-are-playing aspect. Our record is ok, but just ok. It's what most of us expected as a minimum since the 9 wins prior to ISU were, in effect, buy wins. I think with who we had returning many of us thought a win against either/both Wis or WSU could have been expected. If the ISU game is not a turning point, with regard to how we are playing then we will be in trouble when we get to the A-10 part of our schedule.

[Quality Is Job 1]

I certainly didn't mean a turning point from the perspective of our record, but I did mean it from a how-we-are-playing aspect. Our record is ok, but just ok. It's what most of us expected as a minimum since the 9 wins prior to ISU were, in effect, buy wins. I think with who we had returning many of us thought a win against either/both Wis or WSU could have been expected. If the ISU game is not a turning point, with regard to how we are playing then we will be in trouble when we get to the A-10 part of our schedule.

I vehemently disagree. No road win is a "buy win." The Bills have three road wins, and the win at Valpo is respectable. Moreover, the neutral win over Old Dominion also negates your point. Sure, we may have been disappointed that they didn't beat Wisconsin, but that doesn't make the win over ODU a buy win, in effect, as you say. At least four of the nine wins prior to Indiana State cannot fairly be compared to guarantee games or cupcake city.

[Taj79]

I think it is still a little premature to go into any "state of the season" recap and report on "trending" as kshow knows I like to call it. I am content to keep my observations and projections on my couch with me until January 5th. At that point, the OOC schedule is done and it makes for a logical jump off point as the second part of the season kicks off.

Things change. Situations change. Rotations get settled. There was a tremendous positive change just going from the Wofford game to the Indiana State game. There is much to be seen even with only two games left in the OOC. Vandy will be an interesting test. Then the Yale game too. Some would likely argue that the NC A&T game showed a positive for Tanner Lancona. Frankly, I didn't see the game so no comment. Lancona logged nearly a quarter's worth of work so at least that's better.

More to follow; too soon to call.

[b.hayes]

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Saint%20Louis.html

I believe this site excludes Rockhurst (and perhaps matches us with our #122 Kenpom ranking), but we aren't "expected" to lose for the next 15 games. Our final record is still expected to most likely be either 23-7 or 24-6. Our 5 remaining toughest games are @Dayton, @StJoes, vsVCU, @VCU and @UMass, so its more likely than not we'll carry on winning the last 2 nonconference games. That means we end up 13-2 nonconference (including Rockhurst) and then either 11-5 or 12-4 in conference play. That also would include 8 true road wins, 4 each in conference and nonconference.

Of course these are all just foofoo computer simulations, but we are in good shape at the moment. Need to keep improving.

[MB73]

We are fine. Not optimal, but fine.

A win over either MVC's Wichita State or Big 10 Wisconsin and we'd all be thrilled.

Without that, we need a good 9-1 type streak to get back into the top 25 fray and it appears the team chemistry is starting to improve as Crews determines the best combinations and the players accept their roles. Our last few games we have shown improvement. Upcoming Vandy, though, is a bit of a concern, we must play well.

It will be difficult to achieve what we did last year, but 2nd or 3rd in A-10, an NCAA bid, and a win in the first round of the Big Dance seems well within range and we can do even better if we truly jell and someone emerges as a "plus" scorer, a shooter, above and beyond contributions thus far (Barnett?)... maybe someone who has been scoring OK so far but now takes charge, steps up and becomes a 20 ppg type man (McCall? Loe?) will put us over the top.

We shall see.

[Bizziken]

We will know more about this team by January 11th...we have 3 Road games (@ Vandy, @ Rhode Island, and @ Dayton) in a span of about 10 days, with St. Bonaventure at Chaifetz mixed in. I expect a 3-1 record, would be VERY impressed at 4-0, and disappointed at 2-2.

[NH]

For me, analyzing where we stand in this point of this season is tricky. On one hand, we are a shot or two in the Wichita State game from being 12-1, ranked and giddy about our chances of winning the A-10. Additionally, we are playing better now than we were at that point of the season. I predicted we would lose two games during the non-conference and I also predicted us to be very good, so if we could follow through on that projection, it would seem suitable reason for optimism.

On the other hand, no one player has stepped up beyond what I expected this season. We don't have a big win. And there is a chance that not one of the teams we have beaten even makes the NIT this year. That is not SLU's fault and it is not reason for saying we are not a very good team, it simply makes it a little tougher to judge. Our only losses have been close games to KenPom teams ranked 7th and 15th, respectively. However, our best win is against the 75th best team. So what do we know: we are better than average, but there is no indication yet that we are elite.

When my own observations fail me as they have this year, it seems like the most reasonable place to turn is the numbers:

KenPom: 24th (103rd OEff, 4th DEff)

Sagarin: 34th

TeamRankings: 31st

RPI: 52nd (depending on where you look)

Overall our Massey Score (which combines 31 basketball rankings) has us at 34th. This means we should make the tournament and should be a middle seed. I think what the realistic hope for fans of this team should be is that we can creep into the 15-25 range by season's end on a lot of these predictive rankings.

[For-DaLove]

Indiana State is at least an NIT team, and possibly an NCAA team. Valpo or Oral Roberts could also make the NIT or NCAA

[Aquinas]

Just arrived in St. Louis for Christmas from Florida with the family. 22 degrees and no Billiken games tis week. Bad timing, though I'm thankful for a good team and look forward to the new year with many good games and another trip to the big dance.

[JettFlight5]

Indiana State is at least an NIT team, and possibly an NCAA team. Valpo or Oral Roberts could also make the NIT or NCAA

I'm betting Valpo wins the Horizon League as well.

[NH]

Indiana State is at least an NIT team, and possibly an NCAA team. Valpo or Oral Roberts could also make the NIT or NCAA

You say that like it is so cut and dry. Indiana St. is projected to finish with an RPI of 86, which would most likely not get them into the NIT. Their only chance of an NCAA is likely winning with MVC tourney, which obviously could happen. Oral Roberts would have to win their conference to make the NIT (again possible but can't be counted on). Valparaiso is expected to finish with an RPI of 146.7, which again would not get it done for the NIT.

So while I hope you are right, you have to at least be realistic with those predictions, and you can't just say that ISU will at least make the NIT. I hope they do, though.

[slufan13]

I mean any of our opponents could make the tournament, but none of them will be any better than about a 14 seed so I don't see what good that does us. Indiana State could probably make the tournament if they finish a close 2nd to Wichita St, but I still don't know how likely that is.

I kind of see this season as 2 years ago. We didn't really have a noteworthy win (Xavier twice was good, but they were just a 10 seed. Washington? Didn't make the NCAA. Villanova? Didn't make the NCAA) but we still end up in the tournament somewhere between a 7 and a 10 and have to face a top 8 team to get to the Sweet 16. Now there is plenty of time to improve our resume but I think the A10 has come back down to earth a little bit lately. VCU was overrated from the start and I think a split against them this year was the most likely scenario anyway. We couldn't win at UMass 2 years ago so it will be a challenge this year, but that appears to be the biggest chance at a noteworthy win. Dayton is falling and I think we all know they'll be 8-8 in A10 play anyway. La Salle has just flat out looked bad this year. People wanted to make them out to be great because they made the Sweet 16 but it was somewhat of a fluke. People on here will probably get pumped if we beat George Mason because they made the Final Four 8 years ago but they aren't any good. If you look at the schedule, I don't see any reason why we can't go at least 12-4 in conference play. Giving us a loss @VCU and @UMass, and then maybe 2 games where we can't beat the zone and lose. I think 12-4 plus a win in the A10 Tourney puts us right around a 7 seed which is at least safely in the tournament, but doesn't give potential for a deep run. 2 years ago we had 2 losses in non conference, went 12-4 in A10 play, got 1 win in the A10, and got a 9. I think that should get us a little better of a seed this year due to losing to 2 top 10 teams and just the fact that we have a better reputation.

I think we've looked a lot better as of late and I think Crews if finding the right lineups. The right lineup is whatever gets Dwayne the most space down low (which I think means less Grandy but what do I know?) I'm still worried about our outside shooting but it appears lately that our approach has just been to take more outside shots because that means that we'll probably make more. I feel like we've made more 3's over the last 2 games but still shooting roughly the same percentage.

Edit to add that GW could end up being a decent win by the end of the season. They've actualyl looked pretty good.

[b.hayes]

I mean any of our opponents could make the tournament, but none of them will be any better than about a 14 seed so I don't see what good that does us. Indiana State could probably make the tournament if they finish a close 2nd to Wichita St, but I still don't know how likely that is.

I kind of see this season as 2 years ago. We didn't really have a noteworthy win (Xavier twice was good, but they were just a 10 seed. Washington? Didn't make the NCAA. Villanova? Didn't make the NCAA) but we still end up in the tournament somewhere between a 7 and a 10 and have to face a top 8 team to get to the Sweet 16. Now there is plenty of time to improve our resume but I think the A10 has come back down to earth a little bit lately. VCU was overrated from the start and I think a split against them this year was the most likely scenario anyway. We couldn't win at UMass 2 years ago so it will be a challenge this year, but that appears to be the biggest chance at a noteworthy win. Dayton is falling and I think we all know they'll be 8-8 in A10 play anyway. La Salle has just flat out looked bad this year. People wanted to make them out to be great because they made the Sweet 16 but it was somewhat of a fluke. People on here will probably get pumped if we beat George Mason because they made the Final Four 8 years ago but they aren't any good. If you look at the schedule, I don't see any reason why we can't go at least 12-4 in conference play. Giving us a loss @VCU and @UMass, and then maybe 2 games where we can't beat the zone and lose. I think 12-4 plus a win in the A10 Tourney puts us right around a 7 seed which is at least safely in the tournament, but doesn't give potential for a deep run. 2 years ago we had 2 losses in non conference, went 12-4 in A10 play, got 1 win in the A10, and got a 9. I think that should get us a little better of a seed this year due to losing to 2 top 10 teams and just the fact that we have a better reputation.

I think we've looked a lot better as of late and I think Crews if finding the right lineups. The right lineup is whatever gets Dwayne the most space down low (which I think means less Grandy but what do I know?) I'm still worried about our outside shooting but it appears lately that our approach has just been to take more outside shots because that means that we'll probably make more. I feel like we've made more 3's over the last 2 games but still shooting roughly the same percentage.

Edit to add that GW could end up being a decent win by the end of the season. They've actualyl looked pretty good.

We are shooting 31.7% on threes for the season. We shot 34.8% against NC A&T. 40.0% against Indiana State.

[Old guy]

For me, analyzing where we stand in this point of this season is tricky. On one hand, we are a shot or two in the Wichita State game from being 12-1, ranked and giddy about our chances of winning the A-10. Additionally, we are playing better now than we were at that point of the season. I predicted we would lose two games during the non-conference and I also predicted us to be very good, so if we could follow through on that projection, it would seem suitable reason for optimism.

On the other hand, no one player has stepped up beyond what I expected this season. We don't have a big win. And there is a chance that not one of the teams we have beaten even makes the NIT this year. That is not SLU's fault and it is not reason for saying we are not a very good team, it simply makes it a little tougher to judge. Our only losses have been close games to KenPom teams ranked 7th and 15th, respectively. However, our best win is against the 75th best team. So what do we know: we are better than average, but there is no indication yet that we are elite.

When my own observations fail me as they have this year, it seems like the most reasonable place to turn is the numbers:

KenPom: 24th (103rd OEff, 4th DEff)

Sagarin: 34th

TeamRankings: 31st

RPI: 52nd (depending on where you look)

Overall our Massey Score (which combines 31 basketball rankings) has us at 34th. This means we should make the tournament and should be a middle seed. I think what the realistic hope for fans of this team should be is that we can creep into the 15-25 range by season's end on a lot of these predictive rankings.

If you add the observations made by NH, based upon a number of independent sources, to what MB said and what the Wiz has posted what you really have is a number of analysis using somewhat different techniques. None of these analysis is entirely right, none is entirely wrong. The differences may be due to different weightings used to process the raw data, etc... However you must note that all of the analysis are saying similar things about the Bills. We are not doing bad, we are below the 25th rank, how far down below is hard to determine but I personally do not think we are too distant from it.

When you have data like this, you can reach conclusions by agregating the results and finding a mean to all the different analysis. This becomes metadata, not raw data, but data resulting from the analysis of various analysis results. Metadata is indeed valid, it derives its validity from the validity incorporated into the original set of analysis of the raw data. Therefore, at this time we have every reason to feel that, assuming there is no significant level of player injury, we are going to do well in conference play and that we will go to the NCAA tournament. I cannot say if we will or will not win the A10 tournament, and I cannot say how far we will go in NCAA or what seed we will get. However, we do have enough data and enough independent analysis at this time to start reaching broad conclusions like these.

[Quality Is Job 1]

If you add the observations made by NH, based upon a number of independent sources, to what MB said and what the Wiz has posted what you really have is a number of analysis using somewhat different techniques. None of these analysis is entirely right, none is entirely wrong. The differences may be due to different weightings used to process the raw data, etc... However you must note that all of the analysis are saying similar things about the Bills. We are not doing bad, we are below the 25th rank, how far down below is hard to determine but I personally do not think we are too distant from it.

When you have data like this, you can reach conclusions by agregating the results and finding a mean to all the different analysis. This becomes metadata, not raw data, but data resulting from the analysis of various analysis results. Metadata is indeed valid, it derives its validity from the validity incorporated into the original set of analysis of the raw data. Therefore, at this time we have every reason to feel that, assuming there is no significant level of player injury, we are going to do well in conference play and that we will go to the NCAA tournament. I cannot say if we will or will not win the A10 tournament, and I cannot say how far we will go in NCAA or what seed we will get. However, we do have enough data and enough independent analysis at this time to start reaching broad conclusions like these.

Old Guy, we know we can count on you to say a lot to say a little.

[billslasttermdropout]

I got 2 numbers for ya.

50 and 50

[Old guy]

Thank you Absurd Bills fan, your approval means a lot to me. Metadata analysis is something that is widely used in medical research, epidemiology, actuarial research, and market analysis. It is a good technique even if it does not appear to say much.

Billslattermdropout, it is a lot more than 50 50.