Bills by 3 1/2 over New Mex

[The Wiz]

This should be a Bills win if we play up to par. New Mex should suffer a psyche letdown coming into the Fetz. A big win for them beating #8 Cinn....they were up for that game after being humilated by SDakSt. ...a chance to regain their swag by beating a ranked team. And they did. A hard fought close game drains you as well as a long road trip (time and distance) Then on Monday they will come to the Fetz right after being put back in the polls.... to play the unranked Bills....a letdown for them.

I do not have them as a top 25 team nor did I have them before SDakSt. But it doesn't matter where I have them ranked....the fact is they will be ranked which is a great thing for the Bills. Make no mistake about it UNM is a great team...I currently have them as A-. The Bills are B+ now. A win over the Lobos would move us up to A-.

I will be watching the opp 3pt shooting % again as a key factor.

With a revved up nice size crowd ...if the Bills bring their A game (or at least their A- game) this should fall into the Bills win column.

[Billiken Rich]

This should be a Bills win if we play up to par. New Mex should suffer a psyche letdown coming into the Fetz. A big win for them beating #8 Cinn....they were up for that game after being humilated by SDakSt. ...a chance to regain their swag by beating a ranked team. And they did. A hard fought close game drains you as well as a long road trip (time and distance) Then on Monday they will come to the Fetz right after being put back in the polls.... to play the unranked Bills....a letdown for them.

I do not have them as a top 25 team nor did I have them before SDakSt. But it doesn't matter where I have them ranked....the fact is they will be ranked which is a great thing for the Bills. Make no mistake about it UNM is a great team...I currently have them as A-. The Bills are B+ now. A win over the Lobos would move us up to A-.

I will be watching the opp 3pt shooting % again as a key factor.

With a revved up nice size crowd ...if the Bills bring their A game (or at least their A- game) this should fall into the Bills win column.

They are meeting us in nearly the same circumstance we met them last year if memory serves......

[Taj79]

Edwardsville was pretty bad. So too was Loyola, Eastern and TN-Martin. We shot 29% from three last night and barely broke 50% from the free throw line. Are these the marks of a B+ team? I agree with the psycho-analysis portion of the Wiz's comments but we will need a little more come Monday then we have needed since likely the Kansas game. Even w/o KM and still failing to replace th einterior threat of BC, we are only one win away from where I thought we'd be. In hindsight, if we had had KM, we might be looking at a one-loss season so far.

[willie]

I am not sure we beat Santa Clara that night even if we had KM. They put it to us pretty good. We do beat Washington.

[AlumniFan]

We will need a healthy Manning on Monday. Alex Kirk, their 7'0", 250 lbs RS sophomore, is averaging 11.4 points and has 19 blocks. Cameron Bairstow is their forward at 6'9", 250 lbs (from Australia as is Hugh Greenwood one of their guards - 7.8 pts per game). Two of their guards go 6'4" and 6'7" - big kids and are the Lobos' top two scorers. Unless Rob is hitting from the outside, it would appear that WE have more of a matchup problem than they have.

[The Wiz]

Edwardsville was pretty bad. So too was Loyola, Eastern and TN-Martin. We shot 29% from three last night and barely broke 50% from the free throw line. Are these the marks of a B+ team? I agree with the psycho-analysis portion of the Wiz's comments but we will need a little more come Monday then we have needed since likely the Kansas game. Even w/o KM and still failing to replace th einterior threat of BC, we are only one win away from where I thought we'd be. In hindsight, if we had had KM, we might be looking at a one-loss season so far.

Well, yes ...these are the marks of a B+ team. Even with bad numbers the Bills win by 27. The mark of a good team is to beat the bad teams when you have an off night. I think the Bills play to the level of their competition. They will step it up a notch against NM.

[Billikeniner9]

We will need a healthy Manning on Monday. Alex Kirk, their 7'0", 250 lbs RS sophomore, is averaging 11.4 points and has 19 blocks. Cameron Bairstow is their forward at 6'9", 250 lbs (from Australia as is Hugh Greenwood one of their guards - 7.8 pts per game). Two of their guards go 6'4" and 6'7" - big kids and are the Lobos' top two scorers. Unless Rob is hitting from the outside, it would appear that WE have more of a matchup problem than they have.

Agreed re Manning. The best thing we can do is bench RL. He's terribly soft and slow in the post and we don't need his 3 point shot. We have plenty of fire power beyond the arc. CR and JM should get all the minutes in the low post.

[JohnnyJumpUp]

The best thing we can do is bench RL. He's terribly soft and slow in the post and we don't need his 3 point shot. We have plenty of fire power beyond the arc.

I disagree with that..... I think the best thing for SLU would be, that Loe be on his game, gets 18-20 minutes, hits about 4 3's, gets a few boards, doesn't set any moving screens and throws down a nasty windmill dunk on Alex Kirk. Ok, maybe not that last one, but he needs to get his head right and find his game, hopefully this happens Monday. If not, I think his minutes should be cut but we can't give up on him, he is a huge weapon offensively if he's on. When you look over his game stats since he arrived at SLU, he's a streaky shooter from 3pt....he will shoot near .500 over a few games then hit a skid, then back to near .500 over four or five games. He's 0 of 8 from 3pt through the last six, he was 8 of 20 the five previous. If history holds true, he will be hitting close to .500 over the next four or five games, at least I focking hope so.

[For-DaLove]

<blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="JohnnyJumpUp" data-cid="333761" data-time="1356813086"><p>

<br />

<br />

I disagree with that..... I think the best thing for SLU would be, that Loe be on his game, gets 18-20 minutes, hits about 4 3's, gets a few boards, doesn't set any moving screens and throws down a nasty windmill dunk on Alex Kirk. Ok, maybe not that last one, but he needs to get his head right and find his game, hopefully this happens Monday. If not, I think his minutes should be cut but we can't give up on him, he is a huge weapon offensively if he's on. When you look over his game stats since he arrived at SLU, he's a streaky shooter from 3pt....he will shoot near .500 over a few games then hit a skid, then back to near .500 over four or five games. He's 0 of 8 from 3pt through the last six, he was 8 of 20 the five previous. If history holds true, he will be hitting close to .500 over the next four or five games, at least I focking hope so.</p></blockquote>

This. Taking all of his minutes away would be a terrible idea. We can basically kiss anything he could give us next year goodbye if we decide to take away his minutes. I actually think Crews has handled this situation well.

[Billboy1]

If Crews starts RL he better be ready to yank him quick if he is getting manhandled. We can't afford non physical play this game, GC would even be a better choice,

[Billikeniner9]

"When" he gets manhandled. RLs success last year was a product of Conklin's hard work. We need RL to be a man in the paint....not a scared, streaky three point shooter. His sloppy play and poor defense cost more than he can make up on the other end of the ball.

[DirtyRican]

"When" he gets manhandled. RLs success last year was a product of Conklin's hard work. We need RL to be a man in the paint....not a scared, streaky three point shooter. His sloppy play and poor defense cost more than he can make up on the other end of the ball.

Rob is just not a post player, trying to make him one is not working. Bring him off the bench to shoot some 3's and bring the opposing teams big men away from the basket.

[MB73]

Opening Vegas / offshore lines are mostly SLU - 4, some 3 1/2.

[HowlTime]

Sounds like -4 should be easy money for someone.

[majerus mojo]

Sounds like -4 should be easy money for someone.

[joe_davola]

<p></p><blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="HowlTime" data-cid="333830" data-time="1356931981"><p>Sounds like -4 should be easy money for someone.</p></blockquote><p></p><p></p><blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="MB73" data-cid="333829" data-time="1356916979"><p>Opening Vegas / offshore lines are mostly SLU - 4, some 3 1/2.</p></blockquote><p></p>

[Box and Won]

<p></p><blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="HowlTime" data-cid="333830" data-time="1356931981"><p>Sounds like -4 should be easy money for someone.</p></blockquote><p></p><p></p><blockquote class='ipsBlockquote'data-author="MB73" data-cid="333829" data-time="1356916979"><p>Opening Vegas / offshore lines are mostly SLU - 4, some 3 1/2.</p></blockquote><p></p>

[JettFlight5]

I would say must-win, but it's far bigger than that.

[Billikeniner9]

Rob is just not a post player, trying to make him one is not working. Bring him off the bench to shoot some 3's and bring the opposing teams big men away from the basket.

[Billikeniner9]

Rob is just not a post player, trying to make him one is not working. Bring him off the bench to shoot some 3's and bring the opposing teams big men away from the basket.

[AlphaOne]

lol at "not having us as a top 25 team". Not sure if trolling or you're just new to this whole college basketball thing. We're 13-1 against a top 20 SOS, with two wins over ranked teams, including a top ten team on the road. I don't know what your criteria is for a team deserving to be ranked, but I'd be extremely interested to see what you would consider worthy.

[Duff Man]

lol at "not having us as a top 25 team". Not sure if trolling or you're just new to this whole college basketball thing. We're 13-1 against a top 20 SOS, with two wins over ranked teams, including a top ten team on the road. I don't know what your criteria is for a team deserving to be ranked, but I'd be extremely interested to see what you would consider worthy.

To be fair, he did call UNM a great team - just not in the top 25 based on his computer algorithm - which factors in margin of victory, etc...

Coaches' poll has the Lobos at 23.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/polls/

[kwyjibo]

Not sure if trolling (sic) or you're just new to this whole math and rankings thing.

See number 38 here: kenpom.com

See number 28 here: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt1213.htm

See number 47 here: http://www2.isye.gatech.edu/~jsokol/lrmc/ (this method has been the most accurate at predicting tourney success)

HINT: There are dozens of ranking mechanisms that put UNM outside of top 25 right now and the WIZ's method is close to the better ones. RPI is the only one making UNM look real good right now.

Pomeroy SOS has UNM at 87 and LRMC has UNM SOS over 100. You are clearly putting all your eggs in the proverbial RPI basket and it IS NOT a midseason ranking tool.

[Taj79]

For me, tonight's a huge grame in terms of the path forward. Is this the best Bills season in modern history? I don't know. We have obviously come down off the mount that was an overrated #9 ranking by Lindy's. We ain't that. We've weathered the storm of injuries that was KM, JJ, CR, GG and KC. We've movedon from the early season loss of KM and have dealt with the loss of KC from the roster as well. Short of maybe a game or two, we're right where we were expected to be. Now here comes tonight.

On the negative side, we have yet to answer the riddle of interior points production from a steady consistent source. While we can sit here and say how our defense has rounded into shape we have to recognize that the level of compeition that we base that on was putrid. Is that a fair curve to grade ourselves on? We have not really dominated on the boards as far as I can tell and now, with New Mexico and the impending A10 season, will we see exploitation there? GG has yet to show he can contribute consistently on the inside. RL remains mostly a soft, three-point shooting Euro big. CR is once again inconsistent. And there are nights when our talent --- our shooting --- seems to be lacking on the perimeter and at the foul line.

On the positive side, JJ has improved his mid-range game. JM appears to have an above-average future on the low blocks. JB can add some positive moments off the bench. CE has the art of the flop down to an exact science (will that tactic stand in A10 games?). MM is shooting extremely well from three. GG has a non-stop motor. And DE is a quiet beast at times.

This is a linchpin game. I won't approach a ledge if we lose but it should show all of us a lot about just how far this team can be expected to go. This is now our OOC "Super Bowl." We are at home. They are barely ranked. We are a decent B+ team. We are favored. We should win. But their talent level will definitely show us where we are going forward. Right now, as the OOC season draws to a close, I'd rank Butler, VCU, and Temple all above us in the A10. With us I'd rank Umass, Dayton and Richmond. I don't put a lot of stock in the gaudy OOC record of either Charlotte or La Salle, but acknowledge that winning can breed a whole different beast. And not mentioned? Xavier (who looked like crap against Tennessee) and St.Joe's (picked by the coiaches to win it all).

I'll be glued to CBSSN tonight for sure. Happy New Year with a virtual hug to my bud ----- kshoe!

[AlphaOne]

Not sure if trolling (sic) or you're just new to this whole math and rankings thing.

You're absolutely right. 13-1 with wins over 10-2 UConn and 12-1 Cincinnati definitely don't warrant a top 25 ranking. How silly of me to assume otherwise.

I guess Wiz's calculations are spot on.