ESPN's BPI Rankings

[Billsrmajic]

I can see it coming. July 4, 2012. Otterville, Ill. Steel Cage Bout. In the red corner, managed by Jay Bilas, MB73, 73 ! In the blue corner, managed by moytoy12, the Wiz, Wiz ! Pre-match entertainment provided by the current undergrad Saintsations. All wagering money placed in the care of b_roy, 'cause he understands what the term "bayesian" means. Snocones provided by Box and One, natch. Quick postgame tour of Jersey county by Bay Area. Nighttime expeditions into S. Ill. culture from Brooklyn to Sauget directed by the bluecheckered pants club. A very possible scenario...

Awesome

[GW]

MB- Thank you for the reply. First off, I'll state that I don't believe anyone is questioning your loyalty to the program due to your disagreeing with Kenpom's rankings (I'm certainly not). You place more stock in national polls, rpi, etc than kenpom which is based more on statistics. People like myself believe that polls are subjective- if a team named North Carolina, Kansas or Kentucky say had the same record and schedule as SLU does- they would be given the benefit of the doubt and would be ranked in the top 25 (lower half), not off the charts with no or few votes.

You continue to ask how SLU is ranked 10th whereas Temple is ranked 36th. I thought I had detailed it out, but apparently it wasn't clear. Kenpom bases its ranking on margin of victory and strength of schedule. It is entirely objective- SLU does not receive bonus points because Kenpom likes our logo. Based on his system, it ranks SLU 10th and Temple 36th. Kenpom has no agenda, no bone to pick- the numbers are what they are. Now you may disagree with it entirely, that's fine, but the "why and how" of it should be clear...

You cited the Giants win in the superbowl over the patriots as evidence that margin of victory is not important. As you correctly stated the Giants were -6, whereas New England was +171. I rooted for the giants, but I contend that the better team lost. A single result is statistically insignificant. If they played 1000 times, would the giants win every time because they won last time? Does New England show up for a ritual beating over and over with no chance of victory? Not doing the math, New England would be expected to win probably about 60% of the time. Statistics do not tell what WILL happen, but what is LIKELY to happen. Even with SLU's #10 Kenpom ranking, they may lose every single game going forward. It is more likely though that they will win every game going forward- although probably most likely that they go 4-1.

I am going to requote my original two team scenario to make it easier to follow along.

I have a question for MB that may lead to some interesting discussion. Let's suppose we have 2 teams which play 30 games with identical schedules and for fun, that schedule is the strongest one played in the country. Team A goes undefeated, but every single game went to overtime and was then won by a single point. Team B wins 15 games by 50 points in each game- dominates in every win. The other 15 games also go to overtime, but, alas, team B loses all 15 by 1 point. Team A is an undefeated 30 and 0 vs. Team B's 15 and 15. Let's say that all 15 of Team B's overtime losses were to top 25 teams, while the 15 wins were against average 100-200 rpi teams- thus not a single signature win for Team B whereas Team A has 15 of them. MB- Which team would you consider to be better and what ranking would you give to each team? Note that Team A would have an RPI rank of #1 being undefeated and having played the hardest schedule in the country....They would probably also be ranked #1 in the ap and coaches poll... Thanks in advance for participating. Good test case, team A should be higher ranked. So?

Thanks for playing along. Given the above, Team A being undefeated, against the highest strength of schedule and with 15 top 25 victories, would have a #1 RPI rank and would most likely be ranked #1 in all polls- how could they not be with that resume? Team B with a .500 record and no top 25 wins would likely be unranked with a medicore RPI around 75 or so. They would be thought of as an "interesting enigma" and nothing more- "a team that competes but just can't win a big game". What would their Kenpom rankings be??? Here's where it gets interesting... Team B would have a guesstimated kenpom ranking of top 10, whereas undefeated Team A would have a guesstimated kenpom ranking of around 80. What? How can that be you say- I told you that kenpom thing was flawed!! Consider now with an open mind what is expected of the two teams going forward. Team A has played every team even and then eaked out a 1 point win in overtime- thus they have no margin of victory to speak of (its flat margin to overtime, then a +1 total average margin of victory including overtime). What happens when they play the same schedule again? Do they again win every time- because they are a good team and thats what good teams do, win the close games? The answer- probably not and its somewhere along the odds of a billion to one that they would repeat winning every game. They are effectively even in all games- thus going forward you would expect a long term winning percentage of about 50%. The odds of going undefeated again would be about the same as flipping a coin 30 times and getting 30 heads- you don't expect that, you expect about even heads and tails. What about Team B? Team B played 15 of the top 25 even as well, losing by 1 in overtime. You would expect them to have a long term winning percentage against these teams of about 50%- the same as team A's for the same reason. What about the other 15 games played against the average competetion? Here's the big difference. Team A again played them even, winning by 1 in overtime thus their long term expected winning percentage here is about 50%. Team B, however, destroyed the lesser competition winning by 50 points each time. Long term, Team B would be expected to win 99% or so of these games- that high margin of victory is very statistically significant and you could expect, with a very high probability, that they will win almost every one of these games in the future. So, all things considered- Team A has an expected long term winning percentage against this schedule of about 50% whereas Team B has an expected long term winning percentage against this schedule of about 75%. Team B is the better team, by a wide margin, and there is absolutely no doubt about it. In other words, Kenpom accurately defined the better team and accurately defined how much better they were, whereas polls and rpi provided a completely false analysis.

Granted the above is an extreme example, but one which I hope proves valuable. The above is what is happening to a lesser extent to every team like SLU which is low in the polls and high in kenpom- bad luck and subjectivity is being met with statistics and objectivity. The math is there, I hope you see it and I hope that it works to our advantage going forward. Go bills.

[Cowboy]

SLU does not receive bonus points because Kenpom likes our logo.

-but we should for everything!!!!

[moytoy12]

-but we should for everything!!!!

you would say that, greenhorn.

[GW]

-@gw - good stuff, very good, one place i would quibble is the last paragraph as there is value to me in winning so out here on the range temple gets a lot of respect because they beat us in our place in the head to head matchup, thanks for your points, very good

-and elsewhere temple gets a lot of respect for beating duke simply because they beat duke

Thank you Cowboy. I understand the head to head matchup hurdle. One game is statistically insignificant, unless there is an extreme margin of victory. Had Temple won by 50, I'd say Temple was the better team (and SLU vs Temple's kenpom ratings would show a huge readjustment as well...). Had Slu and Temple played a 100 game series and Temple won more than 50 games (the higher the number the more definative), I'd probably conclude that Temple was the better team. But a single loss by 5 points? Doesn't define anything (gives bragging rights, that's about it...). 5 points is a 2 possession game. Had Temple missed one more 3 and we made one more three, we win by a point. This is not enough data to draw any conclusion other than temple played a slightly better game on that one night. Now in the subjective minds of pollsters and coaches- you bet, it makes a world of difference to them...

[GW]

Nice analysis. I was thinking of writing something similar but you did a great job. So instead I read some Mark Twain. One of Twain's witticisms was......"Never try to teach a pig to sing, it wastes your time and annoys the pig."

Samuel Clemons by 2.

Thank you wiz. As fate would have it, I had already done my temple vs. slu analysis prior to this thread getting started, so the information was ready to go as if on cue...

I have appreciated your analysis all season. Keep up the good work.

[jbizzle09]

you would say that, greenhorn.

Obviously, GW is a greenhorn. Most likely some stat nerd that doesn't know 'reality'.

[billslasttermdropout]

Yeah but what about the lurking valuables, like who has the better "athletes"?

[BilliKat]

I can see it coming. July 4, 2012. Otterville, Ill. Steel Cage Bout. In the red corner, managed by Jay Bilas, MB73, 73 ! In the blue corner, managed by moytoy12, the Wiz, Wiz ! Pre-match entertainment provided by the current undergrad Saintsations. All wagering money placed in the care of b_roy, 'cause he understands what the term "bayesian" means. Snocones provided by Box and One, natch. Quick postgame tour of Jersey county by Bay Area. Nighttime expeditions into S. Ill. culture from Brooklyn to Sauget directed by the bluecheckered pants club. A very possible scenario...

I would go to this....

[billikenfan05]

Jimbo would do play by play

[jimbofive]

I would go to this....

[showthebill]

I believe those rankings are heavily favored in terms of defensive efficiency and therefore SLU gets a big push. I agree with whoever said we aren't representive of #10

People can tell me all of the algorithms they want, but the reruiting and athleticism a conference like the B10, ACC, etc brings to the top 60% of their conference is way better than the A10. That difference is HUGE. SLU got up and beat the likes of Washington, OK, and 'Nova in one stretch of the year but in a BCS conference the caliber of teams and atmospheres you are playing in is way different (sorry, a big road win won't be in front of 4,000 people in the big ten). The A-10 is looking more and more like a two team conference. The only other team to make it played us once in our arena and won. (Garbage to whoever said that is an isolated event because it's only 5 points. This whole what-if they missed one, we make one, is ridiculous because that changes the entire ending of the game and the same argument could go the other way for them to beat us by 10.)

My point is we are playing well and absolutely our stats have been showing that, but to say we are 10th in the country is ridiculous. If we were doing this in a power conference then yes we would be a top-10 team ranked everywhere, but there's no way in my mind we could do this week in and week out in a BCS conference.

[Bay Area Billiken]

Let's not give away our ammunition.

SLU is in the A-10, as much by necessity as by true design. When SLU left C-USA along with Charlotte, Marquette, and DePaul, it was the latter two that received the Big East invites. SLU's program then wasn't where it is now, and about the best possible place for SLU to land was the A-10. Most BCS programs will not play SLU at Chaifetz Arena, or even in St. Louis, in the case of a certain BCS school 100 miles to the West. A certain BCS school 170 miles to the East, Northeast, will not play SLU at all.

As for the ratings, SLU is 22 in the RPI, which although frankly archaic, is the barometer used by the NCAA and is largely a self-perpetuating tool of the BCS conference schools. If SLU has cracked the Code, then so be it. SLU deserves high praise for being 22 in the RPI at this point.

Sagarin is a solid rating system, providing a hybrid between a rating accounting for point differential (in which SLU is 12th nationally) and pure wins-losses. SLU is 16th in Sagarin, rock solid.

If anything, these pundits putting SLU as a lower NCAA seed, such as acclaimed ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, who currently has SLU as a 9 seed, have SLU underseeded. But I suspect that give the BCS bias in the seeding, Joe Lunardi knows well about what he is predicting.

Talent? Perhaps SLU's talent does not measure to a BCS school. But talent is not everything. There is teamwork, attitude, COACHING. These are all assets for SLU. Just ask the neighbors across the River, across I-70 and up I-57.

And you have to have some talent to win 20 games, to be 20-5. SLU is thought nationally as a "tough draw." SLU, under Coach Majerus, is not a team that any of these BCS teams want to play in the NCAA, especially BCS recipients of gift bids, call them the Pretenders, and there are a lot of them. We have a whole BCS conference full of them out here, the Pathetic (Pac) 12.

[BilliKat]

I don't even know how to respond to that, jimbo....

[Quality Is Job 1]

I don't even know how to respond to that, jimbo....

Best that you don't. (Don't feed that beast.)

[AlumniFan]

Look.

I hope we go 5-0, win the A-10, and get to the Elite 8. Pound Missouri by 28 on the way.

Some ranking systems are based upon margin of victory, etc, etc, etc, etc. I get it, Bania.

But some of them are inherently flawed, and allow for huge discrepancies.

If Wiz wants to "predict" that we will be 13th in the NCAA, fine. Do some shots, have fun.

But right now, having no real big wins, how TF do you, for example, justify us at 13 or so, and Temple 31 or so.

They have wins over Wichita State, Duke, and SLU.

We have wins over, "who"?

Our W-L records are about identical.

Their SOS is superior. Look it up,

They had bad losses, lost to Bowling Green and Richmons, letdown / sandwich games if you know what that means... we lost to Loyola Marymount, letdown game.

NCAA looks at SOS, wins against top 25-50 teams, wins on the road against quality (Top 50?) teams, and weighs letdown and sandwich games lessor, relatively speaking.

So, IMO at this point there are 15-20 teams ahead of us as opposed to Wiz's 13th or foo-foo KenPom's 10th, just give me YOUR ARGUEMENT why Temple is 31 and we are 13 or whatever.

I am all ears.

(Again, I hope we are this yrs VCU or Butler and sweep the A-10 & Tourney, but at this point, we are not 10th or 13th. No big wins, SOS is not good, and SOS will suffer in next 3 games. MB73 = "reality")

So you trust the humans, one of whom admitted early in the year that he rushed his "rankings" due to a deadline and did not do his homework? Computers do not have deadlines. They are incapable of emotional biases. They don't care what the letters "B C S" stand for. The only flawed mathematical model is one where a HUMAN screws up the calculations (computers do not do that). You may disagree with the INPUTS, but disagreeing with the math is clearly absurd.

As I have stated, if one of these models uses as their inputs the head coach's weight, the circumference of the teams arena, and the subjectively judged attractiveness of the team's cheerleaders, THEN I would agree that the models are irrelevant. I am reasonably sure that these are not factors in Pomeroy, Sagarin, BPI, etc.

[AlumniFan]

Nice analysis. I was thinking of writing something similar but you did a great job. So instead I read some Mark Twain. One of Twain's witticisms was......"Never try to teach a pig to sing, it wastes your time and annoys the pig." Samuel Clemons by 2.

One of my all time favorite sayings except that I always thought it was "Never try to teach a pig to dance..." Either way, this hits the nail on the head.

[MB73]

You guys are still at it. Do you have a club?

We are not 10th. We are about 25-35. 30 if you made me come up with an exact number. The Coaches and USA put us there. I agree.

Yes, your predictive sh*t, I get it. Computer programs. And margin of victory, wow, I never heard of that.

These programs are an approach, a methodology, not an exact science. It is opinion based upon the programming theory.

I do not agree with the regular polls all the way, either, but their errors are lesser, whereas the computer polls make sizeable mistakes on some teams when they are off.

If we finish 4-1 or 5-0 and then win the A-10 Tourney and get to the Elite 8, yes. We are this yrs VCU, Butler, I hope

Yes, I get it, one game does not a season make, and yes Giants NE was for illustration only.

Our best win is LaSalle. Look at our SOS. Temple beat SLU, Duke, Witchita State. OK, forget Temple, most just addressed my Temple example. Fine.

Explain: we are better than # 11-20 Indiana, NM, GT, Duke, Baylor, Cal, Memp, Fla, Marq, VA? and 21-40? Not just Temple. Please explain.

There are some in there 21-40 that are debateable, sure.

Go Bills, excellent season, so far so good.

Players, if you are reading this, sorry, you have done well... but unfortunately the non conference teams Wash-BC-Nova-OK turned out to be lessor ranked than we expected. Your best victory is LaSalle. Not your fault. Now get in the NCAA's, beat MU and a few other teams and earn the # 10 predictive rankings.

[Billsrmajic]

You guys are still at it. Do you have a club?

We are not 10th. We are about 25-35. 30 if you made me come up with an exact number. The Coaches and USA put us there. I agree.

Yes, your predictive sh*t, I get it. Computer programs. And margin of victory, wow, I never heard of that.

These programs are an approach, a methodology, not an exact science. It is opinion based upon the programming theory.

I do not agree with the regular polls all the way, either, but their errors are lesser, whereas the computer polls make sizeable mistakes on some teams when they are off.

If we finish 4-1 or 5-0 and then win the A-10 Tourney and get to the Elite 8, yes. We are this yrs VCU, Butler, I hope

Yes, I get it, one game does not a season make, and yes Giants NE was for illustration only.

Our best win is LaSalle. Look at our SOS. Temple beat SLU, Duke, Witchita State. OK, forget Temple, most just addressed my Temple example. Fine.

Explain: we are better than # 11-20 Indiana, NM, GT, Duke, Baylor, Cal, Memp, Fla, Marq, VA? and 21-40? Not just Temple. Please explain.

There are some in there 21-40 that are debateable, sure.

Go Bills, excellent season, so far so good.

Players, if you are reading this, sorry, you have done well... but unfortunately the non conference teams Wash-BC-Nova-OK turned out to be lessor ranked than we expected. Your best victory is LaSalle. Not your fault. Now get in the NCAA's, beat MU and a few other teams and earn the # 10 predictive rankings.

Do you have a bet with a friend that you can post the same thing on this mesage board for 15 straight days or something? We've got it. SLU is somewhere between 25-35. You don't need to keep posting the same stuff. Get some new material. Why don't you let us know how you think we will do tomorrow and Saturday? Did you get tickets to the last three games to support the ballclub? Did you enjoy the Burwell article today? C'mon MB, get off of the treadmill. Please don't reply when someone posts something about a computer ranking you don't agree with.

[waldo027]

Here are the reasons we are ranked so high in the computers:

- Complete destruction of Washington, an NIT team at worst. Blowhards like Jay Bilas might look at the 77-64 final score and think it wasn't that bad. We led by 29 early in the second half. We were on a completely different planet that day.

- Consistant destruction of Tennessee St, SIU, Portland, Alabama St, Arkansas St, and Texas Southern. All these games were over at halftime. This is what great teams should consistantly do to bad teams. In recent memory, we have been swept by Bowling Green, lost to Detroit, lost back to back games to St Bonaventure and Duquesne when they were both very bad, and lost to SEMO by double digits at home.

- Wins away from home over solid teams like Villanova, Oklahoma, Xavier, St Joes, and La Salle.

- A very close loss on the road against New Mexico, a top 20 team at worst. If there's such a thing as a "good loss" this is it. If we really were the 30-35th best team, we should have lost this by double digits. We actually moved up 1 spot in Kenpom after this game.

- Temple played out of their minds on that night against us and just barely snuck by. If we played again on a neutral court, we should expect to win.

- LMU, Dayton, and UMass, well s*** happens, explained losses will always happen. If we had won these games we'd be rated even higher.

[The Wiz]

You guys are still at it. Do you have a club?

We are not 10th. We are about 25-35. 30 if you made me come up with an exact number. The Coaches and USA put us there. I agree.

Yes, your predictive sh*t, I get it. Computer programs. And margin of victory, wow, I never heard of that.

These programs are an approach, a methodology, not an exact science. It is opinion based upon the programming theory.

I do not agree with the regular polls all the way, either, but their errors are lesser, whereas the computer polls make sizeable mistakes on some teams when they are off.

If we finish 4-1 or 5-0 and then win the A-10 Tourney and get to the Elite 8, yes. We are this yrs VCU, Butler, I hope

Yes, I get it, one game does not a season make, and yes Giants NE was for illustration only.

Our best win is LaSalle. Look at our SOS. Temple beat SLU, Duke, Witchita State. OK, forget Temple, most just addressed my Temple example. Fine.

Explain: we are better than # 11-20 Indiana, NM, GT, Duke, Baylor, Cal, Memp, Fla, Marq, VA? and 21-40? Not just Temple. Please explain.

There are some in there 21-40 that are debateable, sure.

Go Bills, excellent season, so far so good.

Players, if you are reading this, sorry, you have done well... but unfortunately the non conference teams Wash-BC-Nova-OK turned out to be lessor ranked than we expected. Your best victory is LaSalle. Not your fault. Now get in the NCAA's, beat MU and a few other teams and earn the # 10 predictive rankings.

Well MB, you have broken me. That 15th copy and paste did it. I have seen the light. Computers bad... people good or at least better or more comptent. I have turned off my computer. I will follow your way.

Now what do I do? Hmmm....I had SLU at #11 in the most recent ranking but I am not doing that anymore. Got to find something else to do. Ah, here it is....a copy of USA Today that bastion of truth and journalism. But most important their polls are done by people...people who would never lead you astray...so reliable, you could quote them on an internet board and guarantee it. I feel good now...truth at last...no more of that SLU 11th crap. No more of those computers trying to trick humans. You remember George Washington....not the school ....the guy on the dollar bill. Well he never lied (unless you were British) and that worked great in the 1700's and we all know he didn't have a computer. But I digress....where was I...those 15 posts have dulled me a bit...oh yes ...USA Today....Sports ....Here we are ....Polls. Let's see #11 ...Hmm...UNLV a place where you can get a master's degree in craps. Well they are certainly rated high...right where I had SLU....but MB said computer bad...so UNLV will be my new 11...SLU down to 30....this feels better already. With 4 divisions in March Madness UNLV will probably be a 3 seed. That was easy. Now what to do? Think I'll check some scores.. WHAT?!?!?! UNLV loses to TCU....OMG...how could this happen? Some sort of computer conspiracy. I thought I saw an IBM laptop sitting near the Fetz. On Wed. Fr. Biondi needs to have all computers removed from campus. But I digress.....TCU???...are we talking about Horned Frogs??? I can't find them anywhere on the top 25 poll....yes I checked under others receiving votes....nothing. Wait I have an old Wiz list in the waste can.....here they are ...listed way below NM, Tem, Dayton, UMass, and yes even Loy M...way below them. Oh the shame of it all.

So humans are not reliable MB. You tricked me ...you must be a human.. I am booting up my computer as I type (??). Sorry no more human polls for me. You have lost me as one of your disciples MB. It will take a lot more than 15 posts now to convince me ....but I am sure you will try.

It is back to SLU at #11 for me...looking to reach the elite 8 in the Big Dance.

Go Bills

[jbizzle09]

Do you have a bet with a friend that you can post the same thing on this mesage board for 15 straight days or something? We've got it. SLU is somewhere between 25-35. You don't need to keep posting the same stuff. Get some new material. Why don't you let us know how you think we will do tomorrow and Saturday? Did you get tickets to the last three games to support the ballclub? Did you enjoy the Burwell article today? C'mon MB, get off of the treadmill. Please don't reply when someone posts something about a computer ranking you don't agree with.

You guys are still at it. Do you have a club?

We are not 10th. We are about 25-35. 30 if you made me come up with an exact number. The Coaches and USA put us there. I agree.

Yes, your predictive sh*t, I get it. Computer programs. And margin of victory, wow, I never heard of that.

These programs are an approach, a methodology, not an exact science. It is opinion based upon the programming theory.

I do not agree with the regular polls all the way, either, but their errors are lesser, whereas the computer polls make sizeable mistakes on some teams when they are off.

If we finish 4-1 or 5-0 and then win the A-10 Tourney and get to the Elite 8, yes. We are this yrs VCU, Butler, I hope

Yes, I get it, one game does not a season make, and yes Giants NE was for illustration only.

Our best win is LaSalle. Look at our SOS. Temple beat SLU, Duke, Witchita State. OK, forget Temple, most just addressed my Temple example. Fine.

Explain: we are better than # 11-20 Indiana, NM, GT, Duke, Baylor, Cal, Memp, Fla, Marq, VA? and 21-40? Not just Temple. Please explain.

There are some in there 21-40 that are debateable, sure.

Go Bills, excellent season, so far so good.

Players, if you are reading this, sorry, you have done well... but unfortunately the non conference teams Wash-BC-Nova-OK turned out to be lessor ranked than we expected. Your best victory is LaSalle. Not your fault. Now get in the NCAA's, beat MU and a few other teams and earn the # 10 predictive rankings.

It is actually St. Joe's, not LaSalle, that is our best win at this very moment. You pointed this out in an earlier post and you were wrong there, too. I don't even think LaSalle ranks as one of our top 5 wins right now, per RPI (which you always refer to!) Currently, Xavier (56), St. Joe (48), Dayton (69), Washington (62), Duquesne (84) and St. Bonnie (88) all have a better RPI than LaSalle (90). (RPIs provided by rpiforecast.com and accurate as of late 2/14). If you are going to constantly regurgitate sh!t, at least get that sh!t right! Perhaps you should think about apologizing to the players for getting your facts COMPLETELY wrong! Because, quite frankly, their best win is not against LaSalle!

And I like how NOW it is pretty convenient to ignore the all powerful RPI (which you have been quoting non-stop for two months) as it has SLU at 23 right now. Better, you are now referring to the AP and Coaches polls, which are the most biased, opinion driven polls out there, and have no basis in fact at all, they are just based soley on subjective opinion. But, of course, those polls are subject to fewer errors than something based on actual statistics and formulas!

This post may very well be your Waterloo, MB! But, for the sake of all of us, please do not quit and throw in the towel, and give us that one, final MB73 post. I think you might actually be the Bills good luck charm this season! Keep doing what you're doing!

[showthebill]

However all of those teams that are our "quality wins" right now are on the outside looking in. Maybe Xavier or Washington makes the tourney, otherwise we haven't beaten a tournament team yet.

[slufan13]

"No, I would be pretty skeptical," Pomeroy said this week. "I haven't seen them play much — I lamented this week about the Atlantic 10 TV package — and I saw them play earlier, before New Years. They look like a solid team. A lot comes down to statistics. I don't believe they're the 10th best, but I believe they're one of the 20 best. I see them as a 15 to 20 type team. … They'll be a tough draw (in the NCAA Tournament)."

Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/slu/polling-does-not-compute-for-billikens/article_2de5c8a2-cc4e-5b71-a977-7b27a1fb2fc5.html#ixzz1mSmpfbP2

I think this is how a lot of us feel. His stats and numbers make us the 10th best team, but there aren't many of us who actually beleive that we are the 10th best team in the country.

[GW]

The only other team to make it played us once in our arena and won. (Garbage to whoever said that is an isolated event because it's only 5 points. This whole what-if they missed one, we make one, is ridiculous because that changes the entire ending of the game and the same argument could go the other way for them to beat us by 10.)

Dayton beat Temple AT TEMPLE by 10 points. Does this make Dayton the better team? Citing my 2 possession thought, Dayton would have STILL beat temple by 4 points with a favorable swing to Temple and by 16 points in an unfavorable swing. Even with a 3 possession swing Dayton STILL beats Temple by 1 point or 19 points. So, clearly, Dayton is the better team correct??? Or do we rather consider both teams entire body of work, as I had done with Temple vs. SLU, and conclude that, no Dayton is not the better team for beating Temple one night even on its home court. If it doesn't work for Dayton vs Temple at Temple in a 10 point win, why does it work for Temple vs SLU at SLU in a 5 point win??? Again, a single result with a low margin of victory is not significant.