JMM28 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Thanks. I just got my fishing badge last week. The goal is to get equal action, it doesn't mean they always or ever get equal action. I bet you mop up the Vegas sports books. You're probably accessing billikens.com from your italian villa right now. The point is, you didn't understand the difference between Vegas' line and what Wiz produced as his line. That's evident. Happy betting. MB if you dismiss the idea that Vegas does not try to even up the dollars on each side, then why do lines move through out the day? I'll hang up and listen for your answer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Thanks. I just got my fishing badge last week. The goal is to get equal action, it doesn't mean they always or ever get equal action. I bet you mop up the Vegas sports books. You're probably accessing billikens.com from your italian villa right now. The point is, you didn't understand the difference between Vegas' line and what Wiz produced as his line. That's evident. Happy betting. No, you were proven wrong. Again. We WILL find something you are good at, I know we can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 No, you were proven wrong. Again. We WILL find something you are good at, I know we can. You're right, I was proven wrong. If by "wrong" you mean "right". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 MB if you dismiss the idea that Vegas does not try to even up the dollars on each side, then why do lines move through out the day? I'll hang up and listen for your answer. Sure, as more information accumulates, they shift things around to some extent, and when they are not confident they move the lines to protect themselves a bit, but do not want to be "middled" if you know what that means... AND they know, for example that if they go from -3 in football to -3.5 (or -7 to -7.5) it has a HUGE effect, so they are careful. They adjust a bit to balance but also move the line to suck in more $$$ on the wrong side when they are confident. Recent example. LSU was -1 against Alabama for a month, 60% was bet on LSU. The day of the game, it shifted to Alabama - 2.5. WHY? They wanted more action on LSU. WHY? Because ----- (dont know his first name) Hebert, a bench player for LSU, (son of former famous QB Bobby Hebert) started a lot of controversy when the final game plan was that option type QB Jefferson was going to QB the whole game, no matter what, and there was no contingency plan to bring in pocket passer Lee, even if LSU was behind. Whatsoever. The offensive players did not like that at all. Jefferson had stunk against GA and the defense won the game, also against Arkansas. A LOT of the LSU offensive players went to their coaches (OL, WR, TE, RB, etc) and this all got back to Jefferson. Jefferson screamed at the team, told them all to f*ck off, he was the best, LEE could not wear his jock, there were punches thrown, the day BEFORE the game. Total disarray. The idiot LSU head coach Miles overruled the OC, said Jefferson was playing the whole game, we are NOT throwing deep, just run and sideline passes, the OC and Miles fought verbally right before the game in front of the team. Vegas knew this, we did not. And, again, most days like today of say, 40 games, about 30 or so, one side has 60-80% of the action, the others are more balanced. It would be impossible to balance all of the games 50-50. If only you knew anything about it. So, kid, any more questions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I went with X -7. Guard out for St. Joes. Have fun if I lose, ladies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbizzle09 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Have you ever noticed how MB73 likes to edit his posts afterwards? It is more evident when you see someone who has quoted one of his posts when replying. I particularly like how he told moytoy12 that 'You do not know who you are dealing with', only to later change it. Why do you do that, MB73? Also, it is one thing to make excuses for the other teams we've played, to help downgrade any and all of our wins. But, when did Charlotte get sh*tty all of a sudden? I wouldn't call them world beaters, but currently they have an 87 RPI. They also have a 23 point win over Davidson (RPI 48, with a win at Kansas) and a win at #50 St. Joe. They seem to be pretty decent and I think SLU should be proud for going in there and being able to pull a victory out, especially after being down 14 early on and looking disjointed. It says a lot about a team if they can pull together and right the wrongs on the road. But, let me get on board with what you've said all along. NIT at best, if lucky. Probably 19 wins, maybe 20. Program will never recover from last year's debacle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010andBeyond Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 You want SJ + 3.5, the Wiz line, good luck, ha! MB, I don't think you understand. Wiz's line is not a betting line. I took SJU and the points on a betting line, which was 6. Once I heard you touting X I knew I should go for the hawk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Have you ever noticed how MB73 likes to edit his posts afterwards? It is more evident when you see someone who has quoted one of his posts when replying. I particularly like how he told moytoy12 that 'You do not know who you are dealing with', only to later change it. Why do you do that, MB73? Awesome. I didn't even notice that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoastBilliken Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Well looks like Xavier beat St Jos by 13.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billslasttermdropout Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 So who's the mother flippin'? I don't follow.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wow...this has developed into quite a thread, considering we started with Taj's simple question of who I was picking in the Dayton vs X game on Sat. I hope Taj can find my answer tomorrow in this thread. In responding to some of the points, I didn't want to copy endless quotes so I will just refer to them. JBizzle09....post 11-pretty much how the system works (though I would put myself closer to KenPom than Sag) ....Also post 15...+1 Moytoy....+1 on multiple posts about evening up betting odds Waldo 27....+1 JMM28...+1 for asking the question about why odds move around during the day which supports the argument of "evening" things up. A few observations.... While I have been to a few sports books (I watched the last Bills game from the Mandalay sports book in Vegas), I am not "The Wizard of Odds". I try to predict the games which is different than betting, as a few posters have pointed out. . Non numerical items affecting the game (injuries, travel, games packed together, etc)- Yes these things do affect games but not always to the extent we think. People tend to magnify individual events on the outcome of the game. I am reminded of the Dayton game when Benson (Dayton's 2nd leading scorer) went out with an injury in the game before ours. I had that game very even. With Benson not playing, some said that game was ours for sure. Of course we know what happened. The interesting thing is that since Benson has been out Dayton's numbers have actually strengthened. It was Branch Rickey use to call "addition by subtraction"....you get rid of someone and you become better. It doesn't always work that way....but you don't change the numbers...you let the numbers change. Which brings me to my next point Do you really think the Bills are 18th in the nation?....Well...yes, until I see otherwise. I have had the Bills at 17-25 all season. I have them A rated..... the elite of the A-10. I am also ready to move them down...but not unless the numbers change. And so far the numbers haven't changed. The teams(particularly 15-25) are bunched tightly together. A loss to say Duq would probably knock us down to 25...still not bad. As has been pointed out a few times, at least by me, we are projected to win all our remaining games. That means we will be favored in every game but that does not mean we are projected to win all our remaining games as a whole. I hope that makes sense. It will save me 2 paragraphs of explanation if it does. And then there is....If we are so good how come we just barely beat a stinky team like Charlotte. First of all Charlotte is not a stinky team. They are a B team playing on their home court...a quality win. Yeah but you were down 14 ...how good could the Bills be? Good enough to come back. It takes an A team to come back against a B team. In statistics it is called reversion to the mean. In basketball, it is called the cream rising to the top. Sometimes things don'r revert. Sometimes good teams lose. Carolina being whipped by unranked Fl St by 32. Yet the Tarheels are still 8th.Yes I know about SOS and their quality wins but the fact remains they were totally embarassed by an unranked team. Should they still be 8th?...yes. Can we be 18th?... sure. At this point I only see 17 teams better than us. Are there teams better than us, behind us... maybe Are there teams ahead of us we can beat ...probably. Bottomline is we are a good team and I will keep them there till they prove otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MB73 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 MB, I don't think you understand. Wiz's line is not a betting line. I took SJU and the points on a betting line, which was 6. Once I heard you touting X I knew I should go for the hawk. Good move taking St. Joe + 6. Yes, I understand Wiz is not the betting line, that is what the whole thread was about, I had X -7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Yes, I understand Wiz is not the betting line, that is what the whole thread was about, I had X -7. -good job!!! -you are sending half of your winnings to Steve for the cost of running Billikens.com, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 And finally back to Taj's original question. The answer is....................... Dayton by 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Thanks Wiz. Wow! A veritable toss-up. What would it be if the home team was reversed? So who do we root for? I know Metz' answer; but I know there are a lot of SV haters on here. I think I'm one of them. What to do, what to do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 19, 2012 Author Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wiz: what do you have on the rest of the A10 matchups (in- and out-of-conference) for Saturday? At first blush, witrhotu a system, I'd say Temple by 5 over Maryland; the Bonnies by 15 over Fordham; La Salle by 15 over Rhode Island; Richmond about 8 over Umass; GeeDuib by 2 over Charlotte; with St. Joe's and Penn in a pick'em. How'd I do? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 At first blush, witrhotu a system JESUS CHRIST, taj, get your sh!t together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Wiz: what do you have on the rest of the A10 matchups (in- and out-of-conference) for Saturday? At first blush, witrhotu a system, I'd say Temple by 5 over Maryland; the Bonnies by 15 over Fordham; La Salle by 15 over Rhode Island; Richmond about 8 over Umass; GeeDuib by 2 over Charlotte; with St. Joe's and Penn in a pick'em. How'd I do? obviously from his phone. i know from experience how hard typing becomes with a thumb. and second, just look at the sheer length of this post. when has taj posted less than 100 words? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 i'm rooting for xavier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbofive Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 obviously from his phone. i know from experience how hard typing becomes with a thumb. and second, just look at the sheer length of this post. when has taj posted less than 100 words? looks like he was typing on an ipad w/ a gotdamn jackhammer. "witrhotu"!?!? sounds like some tree from avatar... just turrible... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slubilliken09 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Personally, I'm pulling for Dayton to zip em up. Every time Tu loses, the world is a better place. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Since I contributed to this thread being a mess, I feel justified in going a bit more off track. I actually think a lineup of KM, JJ, DE, BC and RL will match up well against X offensively and defensively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Rooting for Xavier, because we still have 2 chances left to beat them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 Personally, I'm pulling for Dayton to zip em up. Every time Tu loses, the world is a better place. and an angel gets its wings... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slubilliken09 Posted January 19, 2012 Share Posted January 19, 2012 and an angel gets its wings... Debated going with that, too. Cue jimbo vikky secret angel pic in 3....2.....1.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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