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Non-Conference schedule - at-large chances

ACE

By ACE
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ACE Listener of the Streets

ACE

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With the A-10 being down this year, we're gonna need a strong non-conference resume if we have any chance of earning an at-large. We came out of NYC in good shape, especially considering the missing players. One good win and one "good" loss. The key is we avoided playing Washington, which would not have provided a "good win" possibility and would have been considered a VERY bad loss if we dropped it.

Hopefully there will be a positive resolution with the situation this week... getting out of the non-conference with only two losses is do-able. I think three losses is more likely and still keeps us in an ok spot for a potential at-large bid if we also finish in the top 3 in the A-10. If we enter conference play with four losses, I think we are looking at A-10 tourney championship or bust.

I have Butler as a loss. Even if we get a couple players back, they'll be rusty. At least VaTech showed that we are capable of stepping up and beating a quality opponent, so a win wouldn't be a shocker. 

Providence showed though, that we are also capable of a clunker. Consistency figures to be a problem if Goodwin isn't making shots and the bigs get in foul trouble. We have three home games in a row that we "should" win, but there could be a letdown if we don't come to play - SIU, Houston and Murray State. Gotta take care of business there.

IMO, A key game is Oregon State on the road. Certainly a team we should be capable of beating, but they figure to be much improved and we will be making a LONG trip west, so who knows how we will come out and play. If we win this game, just gotta close it out with two home games: Campbell and SEMO.

 

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SShoe Listener of the Streets

SShoe

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Unfortunately our non-conference slate doesn't give us many opportunities for the all-important quality wins.  Good thing is, we got one with VT and got a nice RPI booster with Providence.  I watched Butler a week ago and thought they looked beatable with or without Henriquez and company.  Not saying we'll win, just that I wasn't totally blown away.   

Hard not to be encouraged though so far.  I think if we can get everybody back for the rest of the schedule, we have a team that is good enough to compete for a spot in the tourney.  Bess is better than I expected and Foreman has come around after that first exhibition game.  I also think Goodwin and French will only get better as the season goes along.  Our current weakness is clearly outside shooting and all the players currently missing will help remedy that.  Remember, many on this board felt that Henriquez would be our best scorer this season.  Add him and I think you've got something special.    

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NH Listener of the Streets

NH

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19 minutes ago, SShoe said:

Unfortunately our non-conference slate doesn't give us many opportunities for the all-important quality wins.  Good thing is, we got one with VT and got a nice RPI booster with Providence.  I watched Butler a week ago and thought they looked beatable with or without Henriquez and company.  Not saying we'll win, just that I wasn't totally blown away.   

Hard not to be encouraged though so far.  I think if we can get everybody back for the rest of the schedule, we have a team that is good enough to compete for a spot in the tourney.  Bess is better than I expected and Foreman has come around after that first exhibition game.  I also think Goodwin and French will only get better as the season goes along.  Our current weakness is clearly outside shooting and all the players currently missing will help remedy that.  Remember, many on this board felt that Henriquez would be our best scorer this season.  Add him and I think you've got something special.    

It’s pretty reasonable to suggest that we’re missing 3 of our top 4 shooters right now 

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kwyjibo Senior

kwyjibo

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1 hour ago, ACE said:

With the A-10 being down this year, we're gonna need a strong non-conference resume if we have any chance of earning an at-large. We came out of NYC in good shape, especially considering the missing players. One good win and one "good" loss. The key is we avoided playing Washington, which would not have provided a "good win" possibility and would have been considered a VERY bad loss if we dropped it.

Hopefully there will be a positive resolution with the situation this week... getting out of the non-conference with only two losses is do-able. I think three losses is more likely and still keeps us in an ok spot for a potential at-large bid if we also finish in the top 3 in the A-10. If we enter conference play with four losses, I think we are looking at A-10 tourney championship or bust.

 

 

You are certainly right that the poor A-10 start makes it look like SLU will have very few losses to play with (right now RPI forecast using Sagarin to determine Ws and Ls shows that SLU could only lose 6 or 7 regular season games and still be considered a reasonable at-large chance).  I think the A-10 needs for Davidson to be good so their upcoming game against Nevada will be a good test.

Even in a down A-10 most of SLU's losses will likely be there because they play 18 conference games.  So it would be a dramatic improvement for this team to go 9-3 non-conf and then 15-3 in conference.  I suspect this year that the 3rd place A-10 team will be 13-5 or so (balance and inconsistency).  Everything is still possible right now but nothing is going to be easy.

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2010andBeyond Junior

2010andBeyond

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We will need VT, Butler, RI and Davidson to hopefully finish as top 50 teams. And need to go 2-2 against that group. The A10 this year is going to kill our SOS and I think it hurts we only play RI and Davidson once. We have many games against mediocre teams and will only be able to afford 3 or 4 losses in those games. 

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NextYearBill Listener of the Streets

NextYearBill

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21 minutes ago, 2010andBeyond said:

We will need VT, Butler, RI and Davidson to hopefully finish as top 50 teams. And need to go 2-2 against that group. The A10 this year is going to kill our SOS and I think it hurts we only play RI and Davidson once. We have many games against mediocre teams and will only be able to afford 3 or 4 losses in those games. 

Need to go 4-0 against that group son

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CBFan Listener of the Streets

CBFan

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1 minute ago, NextYearBill said:

pretty sure we're gonna win the A10 anyway

Agree, after seeing what the bigs are able to do and add Welmer to that mix will be hard to beat up front.  If French and Foreman are in foul trouble there is no drop off with Welmer.  Bess is the stat guy that coach Ford said he was.  The three S2 guards will round out our team for a nice  balance.

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NextYearBill Listener of the Streets

NextYearBill

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7 minutes ago, CBFan said:

Agree, after seeing what the bigs are able to do and add Welmer to that mix will be hard to beat up front.  If French and Foreman are in foul trouble there is no drop off with Welmer.  Bess is the stat guy that coach Ford said he was.  The three S2 guards will round out our team for a nice  balance.

i've never seen a better collection of bodies in the A10.... we pass the 'look good in the airport' test 

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