Cowboy Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 -not that it took looking at bracket matrix but it confirmed A10 looks like Juan Bid League this season -I don't think RI goes undefeated as that is difficult and I don;t want Hurley to have that but RI would have to really stumble to not make it to the tourney (and that doesn't look likely), and I hope in the conf tourney they do fall as I don't want A10 to be JBL -VCU and SVU have fallen, how much time for them to get back up? it is all coaching/recruiting,we'll see -what happened to StB? I know they had injuries early but they were thought to be in for a good season, they are the only other a10 team in bracket matrix -second place Davidson didn't beat a sub 235 team per KenPom in non-conf but as mentioned has two cracks at RI upcoming -and then there is LaSalle.... -basically, the league is down, I hope it gets back, I hope we get back -Taj you used to follow the league more than this, any thoughts? others? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Littlebill Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 This is easily the worst the league’s been since we’ve been in right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeniceMenace Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 5 minutes ago, Littlebill said: This is easily the worst the league’s been since we’ve been in right? Right. RI is 10th in the nation in RPI...St B is in the 50s. The rest are mediocre. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 22 minutes ago, VeniceMenace said: Right. RI is 10th in the nation in RPI...St B is in the 50s. The rest are mediocre. I posted this on another thread, but I hope RI wins out, gets their rankings up to 15-20, and then looses out in the finals of the A10. That's the only way we get two teams in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billiken_roy Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 I think if st. Bonnie would win all the rest of their games until the championship of the A10 tourney and Rhodey continues their success and someone not Rhodey or st Bonnie wins the tourney there would be a chance the A10 would get 3 teams. That said, it is not likely st Bonnie wins out to the championship and not likely someone other than st Bonnie or Rhodey wins the A10 tourney Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moytoy12 Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 The only upside to a down year is that it’s possible for SLU to win the A-10 tourney. Highly unlikely but not as crazy as I thought earlier in the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 38 minutes ago, moytoy12 said: The only upside to a down year is that it’s possible for SLU to win the A-10 tourney. Highly unlikely but not as crazy as I thought earlier in the year. We wouldn't have to win the tourney if we had all of our players. We probably only have 2 losses and are in the top 25. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted January 28, 2018 Share Posted January 28, 2018 It would be nice if someone can knock off R I before the final game. Either way I think we have as much chance as anyone to win it outside Bonnies and Hurley's bunch. We gave Rhodie a battle here so on neutral court I don't find it impossible as it surely was last 3 years. Of course if JG removed before championship we're kind of sunk although we played great without him when on bench yesterday. HOPE AX FALLING CAN SOMEHOW BE PUSHED BACK 6 MORE WEEKS. sorry bout caps didn't notice but works i guess. Hope if appeal is hopeless that SR knows best he can do as far as letting anyone play anymore is to get JGs punishment delayed for as many games he can this season. Getting the other 3 back would almost be a distraction at this point and if they don't lose a year better for them in long run. I still dream of Elliott tossing that boot and give at least Anthony like minutes if he hasn't lost his 3 point shot. Of course if yesterday's 3pt% is the new us.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 fan Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 4 hours ago, almaman said: It would be nice if someone can knock off R I before the final game. Either way I think we have as much chance as anyone to win it outside Bonnies and Hurley's bunch. We gave Rhodie a battle here so on neutral court I don't find it impossible as it surely was last 3 years. Of course if JG removed before championship we're kind of sunk although we played great without him when on bench yesterday. HOPE AX FALLING CAN SOMEHOW BE PUSHED BACK 6 MORE WEEKS. sorry bout caps didn't notice but works i guess. Hope if appeal is hopeless that SR knows best he can do as far as letting anyone play anymore is to get JGs punishment delayed for as many games he can this season. Getting the other 3 back would almost be a distraction at this point and if they don't lose a year better for them in long run. I still dream of Elliott tossing that boot and give at least Anthony like minutes if he hasn't lost his 3 point shot. Of course if yesterday's 3pt% is the new us.... As much as I respect this team, we have no chance to win 3 or 4 games in a row, given our limited bench. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TFord and TRavs Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 21 minutes ago, slu72 fan said: As much as I respect this team, we have no chance to win 3 or 4 games in a row, given our limited bench. Case in point, 2k tourney Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Since we've reached the halfway point of the conference season, this is a great time for a thread of this discussion...... Rhode island is the class for sure and if you believe the thought process that the college game is a guard's game, Rhode island is deep. Matthews. Terrell. Robinson. Dowtin. Russell. Garrett. Rhodey's biggest weakness is the lack of any frontline. Sure, we made former SlimFast poster boy Andre Berry look great but overall, Berry, Akele and Langevine are weak. Problem is with six decent guards in a down A10, well, you rule. I think Dayton, however, will beat them in the DDD this week. Just because that is what Dayton does. Ask VCU. VCU has three losses; expect more. They are not the same as only Williams and Tillman carry Shaka with them. Rhoades has not applied the Havoc as we knew it. He doesn't have the horses. Deriante Jenkins is okay from range, but transfers Vann and Lane have been slow on the uptake. Mason made Tillman look like a lottery pick ---- but so did we. At 14 and 8 with no signature wins, VCU is not an large team right now. I kind of expect them to go 8 and 1 down the stretch however. Still 22 and 9 plus the tourney? Not enough. Richmond is 6 and 3 in conference,2 and 10 outside of conference. Nope. Grant Golden is a hellofa find for Chris Mooney. Sat out last year as a redshirt freshman with heart issues. Dominated Davidson today. Right now, I think they are too young but that bastardize motion Princeton offense and matchup zone can befuddle anyone. And they didn't play that stacked of an OCC schedule. But confidence is contagious. Win in DC or go home. Davidson is an enigma to me. No way they should lose at home today to Richmond. Their issue is that they are a three-man show in Aldridge, Grady and Gudmundsson. Out of 63 today, they scored 53 points. This does not bode well for winning three games in three days in DC. And right now, they are a game above .500. Duquesne is an aberration. A weak OCChas given them confidence but Mike Lewis II as your shooting guard is hard to swallow night inandnight out. Eric Williams will be a nice player ..... or he'll be Isaiah Mike 2.0 and transfer out. The Bonnies are hurting --- literally. Jaylen Adams lost six games to an ankle injury early and he is just not back up to speed. Mobley can't go one-on-five. Bigs Ikpeze and Ayeni have been less than desirable so far. Their defense, in Olean, stymied Geedubya today. I quit counting at seven shot clock violations. But Geedubya is nothing except Watanabee. The Bonnies have nice wins over Maryland and Syracuse but those likely meant more in other years. Neither is that great this year. But if Adams is healthy in DC. they can and will make a run. But not likely anat large. Saint Joseph's once again goes five deep due to injuries. To me, this is Phil Martell's fault. He never seems to fill out a full roster, one or two guys get hurt (Brown and Kimble right now) and they fade. I think change is coming to Hawk Hill. But I've said that before. Dayton is weak, you all saw that for yourself last night. Too many freshmen, a new coach, and no talent at the skills positions. D.Davis was a great sixth man. Not so as a starter. Cunningham is good, but not quite star quality to carry a load solo. They will win at the DDD but with 13,000 screaming fans, who wouldn't. They may even post a decent record but I expect them to fade playing back-to-back-to-back. An injury or two is killer ---- the Grant cupboard is bare right now. Mason is young and horrible along the front line. La Salle's alphabet is still missing the letter "D"; and Giannini is an idiot on the bench. If you are a decent Philly kid, you're going to Nova, or out of town. My only guess as to why transfers go there is because there is no structure and you can do what you want. Yes, they had a recent Sweet Sixteen but that was with four guards and if you believe college is a guard's game, well .... Umass is in shambles. Geedubya is poor and Watanabee is a solo act. And Fordham will always be Fordham --- their roster is full of international kids because no American or New York kid will even raise an eyebrow over a Fordham offer. The second bid for this league was sitting in the basement at Chaifetz back in October. The fact that we are where we are given our self-imposed sanctions is amazing. I think we beat Davidson, VCU, Mason and Rhode island with a full compliment. La Salle too would likely be different. Nothing short of a conference tournament upset gets this league a second bid right now. What really hurts is the cachet this league has built over the last few years takes a significant nose dive too ---- given how the NCAA will put Power Five teams in without a second thought. And then it's back to square one climbing the ladder of national respectability. And no one will play us either. Right now, the West Coast Conference is the mid conference of choice. It's been a steady yet slow downhill since Temple, Xavier and Butler left. David King likes this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Here is my preseason post from Nov 5th........................................... Hi all....This is the official start of my basketball season. For those that are new , this is the first of 3 forecasts....preseason...around the 8th game....and at the beginning of the A-10 season. This preseason prediction is based on a Bayesian model....the next 2 on real data. I use a letter grade system which groups similar teams together. As the season starts to unfold I use the first 8 games to meld the Bayesian model with the real data model and drop the Bayesian after the first 8 games....btw that is 8 real games....so no Harris or Rockhurst. As the season goes on and I have more data , I become more accurate ( at least that is the way it is suppose to work). So the big question on everyone's mind is how are the Bill's going to do?...The simple answer is...better. At the end of last season ( we finished with a D grade) I had said that when a team has a major change...5+ players...that historically the team can improve 2 letter grades...in this case a B. But I also said that a 2 letter improvement is a best case scenario. ....everything has to go just right...everyone shows up and is available for every game, team gels , the team adjusts ...to College BB, to school, to Ford etc. We have already seen some blips. However at this point , I would still say max potential is a B. However, I am going to start the Bills off with a C+. Remember everything has to go perfect for a B. While C+ may be disappointing for some it is a huge jump from D. Again , this is preseason and the ability to change your grade, as all students know, is at the beginning of the semester. So a good start would set the tone for the year. So.....now that you know the 8th game is important, I am going to change it this year. Why? Because the 9th game is Murray St. ...and when we play them they will not have 8 games....So the first true data game will be the 10th game against Ore St. So now let's move on to the A-10. Everyone thinks the A-10 is down this year. ....not quite. Over the years the A-10 has averaged around B+ ...last year it came in at B. This year it is starting out at B again. So what's happening? The top of the league has weakened and the bottom has strengthened. So the league will look different this year....yet overall it will be about the same in difficulty. Let's look at the the A-10 rankings RI...........................................................A Day.. St. B.. VCU...................................B+ Dav ...Rich... .St. J................................B GW.........................................................B- SLU...GM...LaS...UMass........................C+ For...........................................................C- Duq.........................................................D+ So based on these grades ....RI...Big Dance.........Day , St. B , VCU.....NIT...........Dav , Rich , St. J... 1 or 2 of these NIT We will revisit these forecasts in mid Dec.... To paraphrase an ancient Chinese philosopher...May you live in interesting times This will be an interesting year . And here is where we are now on Jan 28..... RI .......................................A-....Big Dance. St. B and Dav....................B+....NIT VCU...................................B....Outside chance to make the NIT Day St. J..........................B- SLU, LaS...........................C+ Duq GW Rich UMass.........C GM.....................................C- Ford....................................D+ So not a lot of surprises from preseason....RI dancing....as predicted...and St. B to NIT with Dav swapping spots with Day to take the last NIT spot for the A-10. You will note , I had the Bills at C+ before the season....for now we are there at C+. BTW the A-10 is at B so far this year....It was at that same grade when we joined the league and last year as well. The average for the A-10 in the last 10 years has been about B+ ...so slightly worse than average this year....If it seems lower than that you are probably right....The numbers have fallen in the last few years. But because of parity....stronger leagues weakening and weak leagues strengthening the league has only slipped to B. You don't have to look any farther than the A-10 to see parity. There was much more separation in previous years. In fact if RI slips a notch to B+ and Ford moves up a notch to C- (both very possible) you will have the entire A-10 jammed between B+ and C- In other notes ...the AAC has taken our old spot in the rankings and the MVC has moved up to tie us with a B. From now till the end of the season most teams will not move more than 1 notch...so that under normal circumstances the Bills should finish between ...B- and C One thing that definitely was correct in that preseason post was the statement....this will be an interesting year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsBeliever!!! Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 Interesting fact: We have played the top 5 teams in the A10 and have won 2 of them. The three we lost were by an average of less than 4 points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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