The Bills by 9 over SIU-E

[The Wiz]

First a word about the SDSt game...dismal

We held their 2 top players to under 20 points combined (16) We played good D in the first half. SDSt. had a good game...51/62/63... a couple of foul shots away from a "wow" game. And SDSt is a poor shooting 3pt team (31%) so they doubled their output. We took 16 more shots overall than the Jacks and made 2 less overall...We forced them into 8 more TO's yet scored the same pts on TO's as SDSt.....Brutal numbers...best summarized by our slash line....33/11/63. If we take that line and add 5 three pointers made and 2 FTM.....it looks like this ...an unimpressive 42/37/71 but good enough for an additional 17 pts and at least a double digit win. 17 points is what we left on the table if we played just so-so. The good news is the first slash line is not the norm so things will get better. Lesson take away from this game ...play D for 2 halfs not just 1.

SDSt is the last team we play that will be short on data (less than 6 real games)....which bring us to SIU-E

As noted above, this game was damaging to the numbers....we come into this game as an F+. The good news is SIU-E is an F team. This is a good time to play them. Not only to pick up a much needed W but to work on fundementals. I saw some good things last night ...good player and ball movement...11 steals...22 SDSt TO's. We looked better than the Carbondale game. we just need to retrieve some of those 17 points and the ship will right itself.

I would like to see us far exceed the spread...that would mean 2 things. We played D for the whole game and shooting was returning to normal. Let's just do it ....Go Bills

[BigMouthBilliken]

Blah blah blah we are a young team and all but it's shocking to go from an A team to an F+ team in a few months

[The Wiz]

Blah blah blah we are a young team and all but it's shocking to go from an A team to an F+ team in a few months

Well the A- was part of a preseason forecasting model...To me the season starts after game 6 (6 real games) when there is enough real data. At that point, we were a C- team....so the drop has been C- to F+ with real data in a month. Still a big drop but not as dramatic. Again, it is not unusual to have wide swings early in the season. As I pointed out in the above post, the fact that we left 17pts on the table shows that the team has a lot of potential. I believe last night's game was an outlier and as we revert to the mean our ranking will recover (and we will start to win) The alternative belief is we will continue to shoot 11% for the rest of the season and go down the tube. I believe it is highly unlikely we shoot 11% for the rest of the season.

How will you know when things are getting better? When we start to exceed the spreads on a regular basis. Not much more on the downside ....It is all up from here.

[bonwich]

If we lose to SIUE, you need to create a category of F- and only ever allow it to contain one team.

[BigMouthBilliken]

Wiz, I wasn't refering to this year's forecast of A- but rather how last year we were an A team towards the end of the season and now we are an F+ team. Not a knock on you but rather an observation by how much the Billiken basketball program has dropped in a matter of months. Obviously players have graduated but not many on this board were expecting such a dramatic drop. Sorry for the confusion

[JettFlight5]

If we lose to SIUE, you need to create a category of F- and only ever allow it to contain one team.

Does this program allow for zeroes?

[thetorch]

If we lose to SIUE we get a G+.

[WestCoastBilliken]

How did you not expect such a huge drop? I did... We are almost all freshman. Just need to go back to the days when JJ was a frosh... same crap - bad def, bad turnovers, bad shooting, looking like they didnt know what a basketball was - was happening then.

This team will be a real contender their Junior / Senior years.

[Dwayne's_World]

If we lose to SIUE we get a G+.

Not the G+! Oh the horror. We will have truly hit rock bottom. Implode the AD, start from scratch, re-hire brad soderberg, go into a 10 year rebuilding plan, and then transition into new a 5 year coaching contract by hiring Cody Ellis as head coach so we can get his son to attend SLU and lead us to a national championship.

[slufan13]

Not the G+! Oh the horror. We will have truly hit rock bottom. Implode the AD, start from scratch, re-hire brad soderberg, go into a 10 year rebuilding plan, and then transition into new a 5 year coaching contract by hiring Cody Ellis as head coach so we can get his son to attend SLU and lead us to a national championship.

Maybe we could merge with SIUE to create a dream team

[bonwich]

Maybe we could merge with SIUE to create a dream team

SLUSIUE is almost as poetic as IUPUI. And the way they'd probably play, we could call them the Bronze Butts.

[The Wiz]

If we lose to SIUE, you need to create a category of F- and only ever allow it to contain one team.

Lol....We have already played one of the F- teams...NCAT

I think we have too much talent to fall to that level...even if it is raw.

The potential I spoke of earlier is not just about the extra 17 pts we left on the table but the fact that we outplayed a decent team for most of the game. If we had just shot so-so we would have crushed a C+ team (they now have 6 real games) My point is if we have the potential to crush a C+ team playing so-so then we have the potential to handle anyone on our schedule going forward.

The glass is half full not half empty.

[Clock_Tower]

How did you not expect such a huge drop? I did... We are almost all freshman. Just need to go back to the days when JJ was a frosh... same crap - bad def, bad turnovers, bad shooting, looking like they didnt know what a basketball was - was happening then.

This team will be a real contender their Junior / Senior years.

No. Because of disappointing play to date, we have become "almost all freshmen." I don't recall you or anyone else on this Board predicting that Ash would play the way he has, that JM would regress, that GG would not play, that AM would play the way he has and that our Sophs would get less minutes than our Frosh. I fully admit that I did not realize our Frosh class would have been as good (such high upside on talent with with size) as they have been. At the same time, I repeatedly argued that unlike 5 years ago, we have enough "veterans" such as AM, JM and GG along with Ash and the 3 Sophs who should now know JC's system and who know what the D1 game requires having gone through a year of it, so that we would NOT have to rely so much on the Frosh and be "almost all freshmen."

My concerns are:

1. AM is in his 3rd year of playing in JC's system and yet he is still looking for individual stats and not providing true team leadership.

2. Ash was brought in to produce this year after learning JC's system last year and playing 2 years for 'Nova and yet he is not getting the job done.

3. JM has disappointed to date. IN his 4th year, this is all we get?

4. GG has produced nothing.Is he injured for the year?

5. The Sophs should be further along by now. Where's their development? improvement? maturity? leadership?

6. Barring transfers/running players off, our team with largely be the same next year as we have already filled our roster/scholarships given to to Welmer and Neufeld -- 2 more freshman bigs and Freshman bigs at SLU have not proven to make all that much of an impact their first year.

I am not panicking but, right now, I am more concerned about JC's development of talent rather than his recruitment of talent.

[Billfan78]

No. Because of disappointing play to date, we have become "almost all freshmen." I don't recall you or anyone else on this Board predicting that Ash would play the way he has, that JM would regress, that GG would not play, that AM would play the way he has and that our Sophs would get less minutes than our Frosh. I fully admit that I did not realize our Frosh class would have been as good (such high upside on talent with with size) as they have been. At the same time, I repeatedly argued that unlike 5 years ago, we have enough "veterans" such as AM, JM and GG along with Ash and the 3 Sophs who should now know JC's system and who know what the D1 game requires having gone through a year of it, so that we would NOT have to rely so much on the Frosh and be "almost all freshmen."

My concerns are:

1. AM is in his 3rd year of playing in JC's system and yet he is still looking for individual stats and not providing true team leadership.

2. Ash was brought in to produce this year after learning JC's system last year and playing 2 years for 'Nova and yet he is not getting the job done.

3. JM has disappointed to date. IN his 4th year, this is all we get?

4. GG has produced nothing.Is he injured for the year?

5. The Sophs should be further along by now. Where's their development? improvement? maturity? leadership?

6. Barring transfers/running players off, our team with largely be the same next year as we have already filled our roster/scholarships given to to Welmer and Neufeld -- 2 more freshman bigs and Freshman bigs at SLU have not proven to make all that much of an impact their first year.

I am not panicking but, right now, I am more concerned about JC's development of talent rather than his recruitment of talent.

I think many of these problems come down to a team needing time to gel. Everyone wants results now (including me). Look at Miami's first year with the Big 3 and Cleveland this year -- it took them 15-20 games or so to hit their stride - and these were the best players on the planet. Here we have 12 guys who are far from the best players on the planet and who have never played together as a unit. Even the upperclassmen never played "together" - they were small bit role players last year. It is going to take a lot of time and repetition before they become a TEAM. Remember the freshman just started learning our schemes 2-3 months ago. The coaches and players are trying to figure out players roles but, again, this takes time and 9 games is not a lot of time in the grand scheme of a program that is dominated by freshman and sophomores. If there is no improvement by February (not saying we will win 10 in a row here - just play a more consistent game on both ends), I will be concerned about development but right now we just need to relax, be patient and ride it out. My expectations are a .500 or slightly better team this year, NITish next and really good again in this year's Frosh Junior year.

Now my humble thoughts on your concerns:

1. Unfortunately, I don't think AM is going to ever be a traditional team first pg no matter who coaches him. He is a high usage player and IMO his best role would be instant offense off the bench a la Vinnie "Microwave" Johnson/Dion Waiters/etc... It's possible he returns to this role by conference play if one of MB/DR/MR gains the confidence of the staff to run the team.

2. For reasons unknown, things didn't work out for Ash at Villanova. Perhaps it was his inability to finish b/c he struggles at the rim. I thought JC was speaking of him in that recent press conference when he stated they have guys going to the rim looking down when they shoot (could also be MR) -- Ash always seems to be looking down.

3. JM is JM. If he looked better to you last year it is because he had more experienced players surrounding him.

4. GG might be injured for the year. Who knows?

5. RA has shown some ability and improvement - he definitely puts forth effort. MC's defense isn't great yet and until it improves it will be tough to get minutes. TL is a complete anomaly and someone who I hope the staff works with to re-instill confidence (if they haven't given up on him) - he looks frightened of his own shadow when he has the ball - needs to wake up and start playing with purpose not fear.

6. I have thought the freshman bigs have looked good this year for freshman bigs in their first 9 games. They are not Anthony Davis good but I think we knew coming in they were not going to be dominant - they have to get stronger and learn the system.

[BACKHANDtheRICAN]

Well the A- was part of a preseason forecasting model...To me the season starts after game 6 (6 real games) when there is enough real data. At that point, we were a C- team....so the drop has been C- to F+ with real data in a month. Still a big drop but not as dramatic. Again, it is not unusual to have wide swings early in the season. As I pointed out in the above post, the fact that we left 17pts on the table shows that the team has a lot of potential. I believe last night's game was an outlier and as we revert to the mean our ranking will recover (and we will start to win) The alternative belief is we will continue to shoot 11% for the rest of the season and go down the tube. I believe it is highly unlikely we shoot 11% for the rest of the season.

How will you know when things are getting better? When we start to exceed the spreads on a regular basis. Not much more on the downside ....It is all up from here.

No, "Wiz"...the drop was from A- (your pre season prediction to an F +. Nice preseason prediction.

[The Wiz]

No, "Wiz"...the drop was from A- (your pre season prediction to an F +. Nice preseason prediction.

Cmon Backhand...it is one thing to miss a prediction, but there is no excuse for getting the facts wrong. I believe the progression was this way (see Bills preseason report card).....B preseason ...A- after Ind St....C- after game 6 (the start of the statisical season (which I point out in the preseason report card) and finally to F+ today. The purpose of the preseason report card is not so much to get an exact grade but to get a sense of where we are in the A-10 before it starts. In that report card, I had 8 teams that were either equal to or better than the Bills. putting us around the middle....We have slipped for now a little below that but I think we can still come in at the 9th spot or higher. I am sorry that some take the preseason predictions so literally ("but you promised a B"). Isn't there a board rule that says "no whining"

[Clock_Tower]

I think many of these problems come down to a team needing time to gel. Everyone wants results now (including me). Look at Miami's first year with the Big 3 and Cleveland this year -- it took them 15-20 games or so to hit their stride - and these were the best players on the planet. Here we have 12 guys who are far from the best players on the planet and who have never played together as a unit. Even the upperclassmen never played "together" - they were small bit role players last year. It is going to take a lot of time and repetition before they become a TEAM. Remember the freshman just started learning our schemes 2-3 months ago. The coaches and players are trying to figure out players roles but, again, this takes time and 9 games is not a lot of time in the grand scheme of a program that is dominated by freshman and sophomores. If there is no improvement by February (not saying we will win 10 in a row here - just play a more consistent game on both ends), I will be concerned about development but right now we just need to relax, be patient and ride it out. My expectations are a .500 or slightly better team this year, NITish next and really good again in this year's Frosh Junior year.

Now my humble thoughts on your concerns:

1. Unfortunately, I don't think AM is going to ever be a traditional team first pg no matter who coaches him. He is a high usage player and IMO his best role would be instant offense off the bench a la Vinnie "Microwave" Johnson/Dion Waiters/etc... It's possible he returns to this role by conference play if one of MB/DR/MR gains the confidence of the staff to run the team.

2. For reasons unknown, things didn't work out for Ash at Villanova. Perhaps it was his inability to finish b/c he struggles at the rim. I thought JC was speaking of him in that recent press conference when he stated they have guys going to the rim looking down when they shoot (could also be MR) -- Ash always seems to be looking down.

3. JM is JM. If he looked better to you last year it is because he had more experienced players surrounding him.

4. GG might be injured for the year. Who knows?

5. RA has shown some ability and improvement - he definitely puts forth effort. MC's defense isn't great yet and until it improves it will be tough to get minutes. TL is a complete anomaly and someone who I hope the staff works with to re-instill confidence (if they haven't given up on him) - he looks frightened of his own shadow when he has the ball - needs to wake up and start playing with purpose not fear.

6. I have thought the freshman bigs have looked good this year for freshman bigs in their first 9 games. They are not Anthony Davis good but I think we knew coming in they were not going to be dominant - they have to get stronger and learn the system.

Fair points. And again, I remain patient in that I have seen improvement in many areas. At the same time, it is definitely 1 step forward and then 1 step back at times. Hard to tell from game to game (too many variables) but I do think we are a better team now than at the beginning of the year. To me, the season can be summed up with the final 2 minutes of the SDSt game. Our 6 point lead got cut in half with their 3 pointer, our dry spell continued, we needed a big stop and their "big" then took the ball from above the FT line to the hoop with not a single other player of our step over to help -- no help side defense. Now, if anyone has a tape of that game, I would love to re-watch the final 2 minutes and see which players did not help out. After SDSt. took the lead, our guy (either MB or MR) tried so hard that he slipped and fell on his own and on the way to the hoop (they were giving us a 2 pointer). Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers...

Again, my questions involve coaching the talent, not acquiring the talent:

1. Why are our veterans like Ash, AM and JM on the team but not up to the task? This is Ash's second year at SLU, AM's third year and JM's fourth year? And I doubt we would be any better with GG in the lineup either.

2. Our Sophs do have talent and are capable of performing at a higher D1 level. In year's past, our teams consisted of 3 to 5 starters who carried the team and the rest who mostly role players and/or those who lacked talent and/or were marginal D1 players and not capable of performing at the higher D1 level needed for SLU. Why have our Sophs not progressed further than they have. They have size, talent, good attitudes, a full year of college ball under their belts, they played with last year's Seniors who taught them what is required, they had a full off-season (injury free) and now -- they are not getting the job done and have fallen behind the Freshmen.

Yes, the Freshmen are encouraging. It's the non-Freshmen who are disappointing. And can anyone imagine how bad we would be without such a talented and deep Freshman class? I try not to.

[HoosierPal]

To me our power pivot play needs vast improvement. So far our three 'centers' have combined for 87 points. What is disturbing is that 49 of those points are either from 3 pointers or the foul line. That means we have only scored 38 points in the neighborhood of the paint. Agbeko's 20 points not from the foul line are recognized and obviously Yarbrough and Yacoubou have scored in the paint, but this post concerns our centers.

One issue is that they seldom get touches in the paint. Why is that? Lack of a point guard that can get them the ball or lack of movement by the pivot player? From my observation, it is a little of both. And when they do get the ball in the paint, the number of shots taken is very low. Normally they simply pass it out. Offensive rebounds with putback attempts occur, but again, you can count them on one hand on each game.

With no post threat, our opponents don't need to swarm the post when the ball arrives. They are staying closer to our shooters cutting off McBroom's potential three or Yacoubou's drives.

Gillmann seems best suited as a stretch 4. He can hit the three, and he has had a couple of nice passes into Agbeko and Lancona from the top of the key. Down low, he lacks the bulk to establish his position and consistently score. Jolly also seems to be intiminated inside when he gets the ball. Dribble, dribble, dribble, pass it back out. Manning's hands betray him when he gets the ball down low. He probably has put up the most interior shots of the three, but the success rate isnt' there. Maybe Yarbrough needs to get the bulk of the 'post minutes'. When we get him the ball, there is at least a chance he can clear a space and put up a shot. Last year out power player was Evans. Can Milik replicate some of what he did? Evans did have Jett/McCall/Loe to get him the ball down low, but he also moved without the ball to establish his turf.

What is the solution? I don't know, but this couch coach would like to see some improvement down low of the offensive end.

[Tonka]

There are some good posts in this thread and some good reading.

I don't think much is going to change in terms of fan's feelings any time soon. For whatever the reason, fans will never be patient and somehow can't understand situations as they are. We are not Duke, UK, NC, etc. We have been a dismal basketball program for a very long time if you judge the basketball program on Tourney appearances. We are coming off some great years, however the players that brought us that success are all gone. We will not reload. We can't reload. We have to rebuild. There's not a way around it. While our recruiting has gotten better, we are still not landing recruits that would allow us to reload. Our ONLY option is to rebuild. We have some very good young players, but they need to develop individually and as a team. There is no way around that.

We only have two seniors and one has been hurt a lot and the other has never really produced in his tenure to date.

In 2010-2011, we had one of the best college coaches to ever coach the game paired with four freshman who went on to be players on the best Billiken teams in the modern era. That Majerus led team won 12 games and finished with a record of 12-19. Again, 12-19. Unless you are a Top 10 team, when you graduate five seniors things are going to go this way.

[BACKHANDtheRICAN]

Well the A- was part of a preseason forecasting model...To me the season starts after game 6 (6 real games) when there is enough real data. At that point, we were a C- team....so the drop has been C- to F+ with real data in a month. Still a big drop but not as dramatic. Again, it is not unusual to have wide swings early in the season. As I pointed out in the above post, the fact that we left 17pts on the table shows that the team has a lot of potential. I believe last night's game was an outlier and as we revert to the mean our ranking will recover (and we will start to win) The alternative belief is we will continue to shoot 11% for the rest of the season and go down the tube. I believe it is highly unlikely we shoot 11% for the rest of the season.

How will you know when things are getting better? When we start to exceed the spreads on a regular basis. Not much more on the downside ....It is all up from here.

The point of my message stands. Your prediction of us being a 'B' team (good) to us now being an F+ team (bottom feeder) was way off.

Mods - Please demand that 'The Wiz' change his name immediately.

[Clock_Tower]

There are some good posts in this thread and some good reading.

I don't think much is going to change in terms of fan's feelings any time soon. For whatever the reason, fans will never be patient and somehow can't understand situations as they are. We are not Duke, UK, NC, etc. We have been a dismal basketball program for a very long time if you judge the basketball program on Tourney appearances. We are coming off some great years, however the players that brought us that success are all gone. We will not reload. We can't reload. We have to rebuild. There's not a way around it. While our recruiting has gotten better, we are still not landing recruits that would allow us to reload. Our ONLY option is to rebuild. We have some very good young players, but they need to develop individually and as a team. There is no way around that.

We only have two seniors and one has been hurt a lot and the other has never really produced in his tenure to date.

In 2010-2011, we had one of the best college coaches to ever coach the game paired with four freshman who went on to be players on the best Billiken teams in the modern era. That Majerus led team won 12 games and finished with a record of 12-19. Again, 12-19. Unless you are a Top 10 team, when you graduate five seniors things are going to go this way.

But you are missing my point and others. We SHOULD have been able to reload this year. By getting to the NCAA Tourney a second straight time (this time under Jim Crew and his being Coach of the Year), many more doors were opened to recruits - and as such -- we were able to get RA and TL who were being recruited by some of the better programs. These were not your regular or run of the mill players -- neither kid was local and both come such high expectations and upside. Had either or both of them produced for us last year (logged more minutes, gained more experience, lessened the minutes logged by our Seniors...) we would have had more success last year and we would have reloaded this year.

Also, it has been well-documented that Ash came to SLU as a kid with the most highschool honors, star ratings, etc. as compared to anyone at SLU since Larry. Ash was supposed to be the best player on last year's team, he was a great 3 pointer, he was unfairly chosen to be the coach's whipping boy at Villanova and he would lead us this year. If he does, then we would have reloaded this year. On good player (as we saw with AM against SIUC and with MR against ISU) can make the difference in these close games.

Like the better programs we are familiar with who do reload (X, VCU, Gonzaga, etc.), they have their "veterans" reload by finally getting the playing time after being an "understudy" prior. For us, AM played a year of D1 ball, practiced with us during his redshirt year, was our 6th man off the bench last and now has his day in the sun. Same with JM and GG who now have room after being behind RL, DE, BC, CE and CR in the depth chart. Instead, they are physically not up to the challenge and hence, we have not reloaded.

Teams don't have to be Duke, NC or UK to reload. Those teams can reload and beat Witchita State on the road with freshmen. I am looking to reload by winning games, at home, against Texas AM CC and SDSt. No, our coaches just have to recruit smarter, know when to cut their losses sooner and do a better job of coaching the kids. The rest of this talk about us being a mediocre team for years is b.s. Are we back to making excuses b/c we are SLU?? No thanks!!

[JettFlight5]

I agree with Clock on this one...the excuses should have died when RM took this team to the Tournament and left the pieces in place for 2 more runs.

[slufan13]

Rebuilding is fine, but having multiple 12 win seasons in five years shouldn't be accepted for a program that wants to be like Xavier, Creighton, Wichita, etc. Especially a program coming off 3 straight tournament appearances, multiple weeks in the top 10, in a league that got 6 bids in the NCAA, with a 2 time coach of the year and up to date facilities.

Yes it's hard to win after you graduate 5 seniors. No one is expecting another 25 win season, but I do think it's fair to expect this team to be right around or even over .500 with our schedule.

The four freshmen in 2010-2011 averaged 24 minutes per game. Our freshmen this year average 16. You want the same development? Play the freshmen.

[JettFlight5]

This team will be better than they are now...we all can get behind that.

[HoosierPal]

24 minutes x 4 = 96

16 minutes x 6 = 96