Bracketology 3/04/2014

[Taj79]

Yikes!!!

Lunardi still has a four seed, going to Spokane to play Iona with a third round game against UCLA/Green Bay. Joe has five A10 teams in, leaving Dayton out from the list from USA Today.

USA Today has downgraded us to a six seed, putting us in Raleigh against Oregon (you're kidding, right?) with a Virginia/NC Central third round game. A10 with six spots in us, GeeDubya, Dayton (play in game at Dayton), Umass, St. Joe's and VCU.

Jerry Palm has us at a number 5 against Harvard in San Diego, waiting out Michigan State/ SF Austin and he also has 6 A10 teams with Dayton playing Mizzou in the First Four. Now that would be hilarious!

[Bills By 40]

Yikes!!!

Lunardi still has a four seed, going to Spokane to play Iona with a third round game against UCLA/Green Bay. Joe has five A10 teams in, leaving Dayton out from the list from USA Today.

USA Today has downgraded us to a six seed, putting us in Raleigh against Oregon (you're kidding, right?) with a Virginia/NC Central third round game. A10 with six spots in us, GeeDubya, Dayton (play in game at Dayton), Umass, St. Joe's and VCU.

Jerry Palm has us at a number 5 against Harvard in San Diego, waiting out Michigan State/ SF Austin and he also has 6 A10 teams with Dayton playing Mizzou in the First Four. Now that would be hilarious!

I'd like to see us win by 20 against Dayton Wednesday, and then Dayton return the favor to Mizzou in the not-even first round. That'd be lovely.

[sir boxington]

I'm surprised USA Today has Virginia a #3. I thought they would be higher. They are ranked fifth in both polls.

Are they really going to allow Dayton to play at home for a play-in game? Do the Flyers need a win over SLU, either this week or next, to book their ticket?

It seems they are having a hard time filling up the San Diego regional. Obviously, Arizona will be in one pod, but to bring in SLU and Mich St. seems like a stretch. Could New Mexico rise high enough to get a #4 and play in SD?

Why is there not more talk of the Billikens going to Milwaukee or San Antonio?

[slu72]

Yikes!!!

Lunardi still has a four seed, going to Spokane to play Iona with a third round game against UCLA/Green Bay. Joe has five A10 teams in, leaving Dayton out from the list from USA Today.

USA Today has downgraded us to a six seed, putting us in Raleigh against Oregon (you're kidding, right?) with a Virginia/NC Central third round game. A10 with six spots in us, GeeDubya, Dayton (play in game at Dayton), Umass, St. Joe's and VCU.

Jerry Palm has us at a number 5 against Harvard in San Diego, waiting out Michigan State/ SF Austin and he also has 6 A10 teams with Dayton playing Mizzou in the First Four. Now that would be hilarious!

Oh, I like Raleigh, Taj Mahal 79. I can make that, and Screw OU, let them come east.

[majerus mojo]

Gary Parrish released a column that, using Palm's latest bracket, includes potential spreads for second-round games: http://mweb.cbssports.com/ncaab/eye-on-college-basketball/24467694/lack-of-separation-between-teams-should-make-march-madness-wild

We'd be +2.5 vs. Michigan State in the 4-5 game. He's right though, tournament should be insane this year.

[slu72]

Gary Parrish released a column that, using Palm's latest bracket, includes potential spreads for second-round games: http://mweb.cbssports.com/ncaab/eye-on-college-basketball/24467694/lack-of-separation-between-teams-should-make-march-madness-wild

We'd be +2.5 vs. Michigan State in the 4-5 game. He's right though, tournament should be insane this year.

Revenge on the Sparty's would be sooooo sweet. Last game coached by the great one would be a super strong motivating factor.

[GMan Alum]

Why is there not more talk of the Billikens going to Milwaukee or San Antonio?

+1 I have been asking that question for weeks? Why are all the Bracketologists intent on sending a 4-Seed over 2,000 miles away? Shouldn't the Midwest Regional (which is being played in Indianapolis) look like this? #1-Wichita State; #2-Kansas; #3-Creighton; #4-Saint Louis?

[hsmith19]

What if Wichita State and Kansas are both #1s? Only one of them would get to play in St. Louis.

[slufan13]

What if Wichita State and Kansas are both #1s? Only one of them would get to play in St. Louis.

Why could only one of them play in St. Louis?

[Bay Area Billiken]

Oh, I like Raleigh, Taj Mahal 79. I can make that, and Screw OU, let them come east.

Go San Diego- America's Finest City!

[kshoe]

+1 I have been asking that question for weeks? Why are all the Bracketologists intent on sending a 4-Seed over 2,000 miles away? Shouldn't the Midwest Regional (which is being played in Indianapolis) look like this? #1-Wichita State; #2-Kansas; #3-Creighton; #4-Saint Louis?

The first two rounds have nothing to do with what Regional you are in. For example, a team in the East regional can play at a West Coast first and second round site if that is what makes the most sense.

When it comes to the first round sites it works like this: 1 seeds are slotted as close to their location as possible. Then the 2 seeds go next. Hence this is why Wichita St and Kansas will end up in St. Louis, Syracuse will end up in Buffalo, and Florida will end up in Orlando. Wisconsin goes to Milwaukee, etc. Then the 3 seeds and Michigan goes to Milwaukee, etc.

By the time it gets to the 4 seeds, they get sent to whatever is left over. Arizona will take a spot in San Diego and San Diego St. will take a spot in Spokane, but other than that its wide open. San Antonio also has no obvious teams so that is a high probability.

If SLU is a 4 or 5 seed it's highly likely we'll be in Spokane, San Diego or San Antonio.

[slufan13]

The first two rounds have nothing to do with what Regional you are in. For example, a team in the East regional can play at a West Coast first and second round site if that is what makes the most sense.

When it comes to the first round sites it works like this: 1 seeds are slotted as close to their location as possible. Then the 2 seeds go next. Hence this is why Wichita St and Kansas will end up in St. Louis, Syracuse will end up in Buffalo, and Florida will end up in Orlando. Wisconsin goes to Milwaukee, etc. Then the 3 seeds and Michigan goes to Milwaukee, etc.

By the time it gets to the 4 seeds, they get sent to whatever is left over. Arizona will take a spot in San Diego and San Diego St. will take a spot in Spokane, but other than that its wide open. San Antonio also has no obvious teams so that is a high probability.

If SLU is a 4 or 5 seed it's highly likely we'll be in Spokane, San Diego or San Antonio.

What's unfair about this to me is that it's pretty more more advantageous to be a 5 or 6 seed than to be a 4. The 4 doesn't get that much easier of matchups than the 5 and looking at some recent bracket projections, it looks like SLU could be the 4 in Spokane or San Diego and UCLA could be the 5. That doesn't really seem fair to the 4 seed. Something the NCAA should revisit in my opinion. I understand why they do it, just saying they shouldn't do it.

[Pistol]

The first two rounds have nothing to do with what Regional you are in. For example, a team in the East regional can play at a West Coast first and second round site if that is what makes the most sense.

When it comes to the first round sites it works like this: 1 seeds are slotted as close to their location as possible. Then the 2 seeds go next. Hence this is why Wichita St and Kansas will end up in St. Louis, Syracuse will end up in Buffalo, and Florida will end up in Orlando. Wisconsin goes to Milwaukee, etc. Then the 3 seeds and Michigan goes to Milwaukee, etc.

By the time it gets to the 4 seeds, they get sent to whatever is left over. Arizona will take a spot in San Diego and San Diego St. will take a spot in Spokane, but other than that its wide open. San Antonio also has no obvious teams so that is a high probability.

If SLU is a 4 or 5 seed it's highly likely we'll be in Spokane, San Diego or San Antonio.

I don't think he's asking about the first two rounds, but I think he's asking about the regional itself. We could play anywhere for the first two rounds, but if we're the closest 4-seed to Indy, wouldn't they try to line us up there if possible?

Granted, I've found numerous errors and inconsistencies and impossibilities in these so-called bracketologists' output in recent weeks. I don't think they put a ton of thought into sites.

[Pistol]

If WSU stays a 1 and Kansas a 2, STL will look like this:

1. WSU

16-seed

8-seed

9-seed

7-seed

10-seed

15-seed

2. Kansas

So it's virtually impossible SLU could end up in St. Louis in the first two rounds unless we (!) lose out and get slapped with a 7. Indy, though- why not?

[FromDaEastSide]

http://www.ncaa.com/sites/default/files/files/BracketPrin-Proc10-5-10.pdf

III. Principles for Placing Teams into Championship Bracket

A top priority for the committee is to achieve reasonable competitive balance in each region of the bracket. Sixteen levels are established (i.e., the seeds, 1 through 16) in the bracket that cross the four regions, permitting evaluation of four teams simultaneously on the same level. Teams on each seed line (No. 1, No. 2, No. 3, etc.) should be as equal as possible.

Each region is divided into quadrants with four levels in each, permitting the evaluation of four different sections within each region against the

same sections in each of the other regions. The committee will assign all four teams in each bracket group (seeds 1, 16, 8, 9), (4, 13, 5, 12), (2, 15, 7, 10), (3, 14, 6, 11) to the same second-/third-round site. There will be two ‘pods’ at each second-/third-round site. The second-/thirdround sites that feed into a regional site may be in different geographic areas from the regional. Also, the two ‘bracket groups’ at a second-/thirdround site may feed into different regional sites.

Each of the first three teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different

regions. There shall not be more than two teams from a conference in one region unless a ninth team is selected from a conference.

No more than one team from a conference may be seeded in the same grouping of four in line Nos. 1-4 and 13-16 in a region, unless a conference has four or more teams seeded in line Nos. 1-4. In lines No. 5-12, two teams from the same conference may be placed in the same group of four.

Conference teams shall not meet prior to the regional final unless a ninth team is selected from a conference. If the committee is unable to reconcile the bracket after exhausting all reasonable options, it has the flexibility to waive this principle to permit two teams from the same conference to meet each other after the second round.

To recognize the demonstrated quality of such teams, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first five lines at a potential “home-crowd disadvantage” in the second round.

The last four at-large teams selected to the field,as well as teams seeded 65 through 68, will bepaired to compete in first-round games on Tuesday and Wednesday following the announcement of the field.

The winners of the first-round games will advance to a second-round site to be determined by the committee during selection weekend. In the event a first-round site is also a second-and third-round site, the winners of first-round games may be assigned to that site, regardless of the days of competition.

Teams will remain in or as close to their areas of natural interest as possible. A team moved out of its natural area will be placed in the next closest region to the extent possible. If two teams from the same natural region are in contention for the same bracket position, the team ranked higher in the seed list shall remain in its natural region.

A team will not be permitted to play in any facility in which it has played more than three games during its season, not including conference post-season tournaments.

A host institution’s team shall not be permitted to play at the site where the institution is hosting. However, the team may play on the same days when the institution is hosting.

A team may be moved one seed line from its true seed line (e.g., from a No. 13 seed to aNo. 12 seed) when it is placed in the bracket if necessary to meet the principles.

Procedures for Placing the Teams into the Bracket

1. The committee will then place the four “number 1 seed” teams seeded 1 through 4 in each of the four regions, then determine the Final Four semifinals pairings, making best effort to pair the top No. 1 seed’s region against the fourth No. 1 seed’s region and the second No. 1 seed’s region against the third No. 1 seed’s region.

2. The committee will then place the No. 2 seeds in each region in true seed list order.

3. The committee will then place the No. 3 seeds in each region in true seed list order.

4. The committee will then place the No. 4 seeds in each region in true seed list order.

5. After the top four seed lines have been assigned, determine the relative strengths of the regions by adding the “true seed” numbers in each region to determine if any severe numerical imbalance exists. Generally, no more than five points should separate the lowest and highest total

[sir boxington]

They will not make Kansas play SLU at the Scottrade. If they fall that far, they will be sent somewhere else.

[2010andBeyond]

What's unfair about this to me is that it's pretty more more advantageous to be a 5 or 6 seed than to be a 4. The 4 doesn't get that much easier of matchups than the 5 and looking at some recent bracket projections, it looks like SLU could be the 4 in Spokane or San Diego and UCLA could be the 5. That doesn't really seem fair to the 4 seed. Something the NCAA should revisit in my opinion. I understand why they do it, just saying they shouldn't do it.

There is no advantage to being a 5 vs a 4. A 5 will get paired with a 4 who will be sent to San Diego, Spokane, or San Antonio. The first game for a 5 will also likely be a first four underachieving bcs team like Pitt, Tenn, or Mizzou.

[kshoe]

I don't think he's asking about the first two rounds, but I think he's asking about the regional itself. We could play anywhere for the first two rounds, but if we're the closest 4-seed to Indy, wouldn't they try to line us up there if possible?

Granted, I've found numerous errors and inconsistencies and impossibilities in these so-called bracketologists' output in recent weeks. I don't think they put a ton of thought into sites.

Well he +1 a post that was complaining that we weren't going to Miwaukee or San Antonio but rather 2,000 miles away.

[Pistol]

Well he +1 a post that was complaining that we weren't going to Miwaukee or San Antonio but rather 2,000 miles away.

Yeah, I guess I was selectively answering the last of his questions.

[hsmith19]

Why could only one of them play in St. Louis?

Because there's one #1 seed slotted for St. Louis, not two. If they are both #1s, one of them will have to go somewhere else.

[FromDaEastSide]

Because there's one #1 seed slotted for St. Louis, not two. If they are both #1s, one of them will have to go somewhere else.

Please read my prior post. The NCAA has used a pod system since the early 2000s. Two #1's can play in the same building.

[hsmith19]

I am well aware of the pod system, but I can't ever remember two #1s playing at the same first round site.

[Littlebill]

I am well aware of the pod system, but I can't ever remember two #1s playing at the same first round site.

Just because you don't remember it happening, doesn't mean it cant...

[FromDaEastSide]

I am well aware of the pod system, but I can't ever remember two #1s playing at the same first round site.

Dayton in 2009 with Pittsburgh and Louisville

Philadelphia in 2006 with Villanova and UConn

Charlotte in 2005 with Duke and UNC

[slufan13]

If they're both 1 seeds, they'll both be in St. Louis. No question about it