thetorch Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 The NCAA did their mock seeding exercise tonight. It isn't over but it SLU made the field with room to spare. Top 12 teams were UK, 'Cuse, SPUMAC, Ohio St, Mich St, Duke, Kansas, North Carolina, Baylor, Marquette, Indiana & Goergetown The committee does a computer simulation of the rest of the season which determines the auto bids. they then do a full ballot in which they can select up to 37 teams. The top 20 teams from these ballots are selected as surefire at large bids. The remaining spots are then filled by voting on each one. The first 20 were Baylor, Creighton, Duke, UF, Gtown, Gonzaga, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, Marquette, Michigan, Michigan State, Missouri, UNC, Ohio State, SDSU, Syracuse, UNLV, Wisconsin. Not in any specific order. After that top 20 they added FSU, Notre Dame, Temple, Wichita State. Then Murray State, Saint Louis, Vanderbilt and UVa. Next Memphis, New Mexico, Southern Miss, St. Mary's, UConn, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Seton Hall, West Virginia, Alabama, Purdue concludes the field. Tomorrow they will finish the seeding, Today they only seeded the top 12. Then they will create brackets and place teams in them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wichita St has a better record, better RPI, better SOS, better BPI, better in the polls, better in Kenpom, better in Sagarin, better in everything than Creighton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thetorch Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wichita St has a better record, better RPI, better SOS, better BPI, better in the polls, better in Kenpom, better in Sagarin, better in everything than Creighton. It was odd. Some of the media people noted that the NCAA guys weren't on top of everything, like the fact that Wich St is obviously better than Creighton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Here is a summary written by a participant of this exercise. Pretty interesting stuff... http://bracketville....ection-process/ They ended the day with 3-5 at large bids still remaning and these teams left out: Arizona, Arkansas, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Dayton, Illinois, Kansas State, Miami-FL, Middle Tennessee, Minnesota, North Carolina State, Northwestern, Ole Miss, Oral Roberts, Oregon, South Florida, Tennessee, Texas, UCF, Washington, and Xavier Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 All top 12 teams are from BCS conferences. Of the first twenty, all but three were BCS schools. Another 12 BCS schools were in the next 20. That's a 72.5% BCS selection rate. Of those battling for the last 3 to 5 spots, sixteen of those 22 are BCS schools. To me, foollhardy consisderation and a waste of time is being devoted to a whole bunch of non-starters like Dayton and Illinois, to name jsut a few on the lists above. I guess they are looking at what to do if someone other than Middle Tennessee State or Oral Roberts win that otto-bid. Why are you talking oreon and Washington when Cal owns the Pac 12 league lead? While we are only three weeks away from the cxonference tourney season, a lot has to still be decided. Just win baby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Wichita St has a better record, better RPI, better SOS, better BPI, better in the polls, better in Kenpom, better in Sagarin, better in everything than Creighton. So true. But don't tell anyone because I hope to make some cash in March. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slu72 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Plus, they don't take tourney upsets into consideration. Granted, the lower mid majors are getting only one bid regardless of who wins their tourneys, but if the BCS'ers have some big upsets the whole exercise goes right out the window. For example, what happens to the A-10 if Dayton wins? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 I see the A10 as a two-bid league --- us and Temple providing no one else wins the tournament. I see Dayton and Xavier hopes resting on winning that tournament otherwise Xavier is learning to spell N-I-T and Dayton will go there too because 11K folks will go to the DDD for a basketball game of any kind involving their beloved Fryers because wearing sweater vests is cool in March at the DDD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo027 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Cal, leading the Pac 12 and an RPI of 31, got absolutely no consideration for an at-large? Are they on a postseason ban or something? Still can't wrap my head around Creighton being a surefire at-large team over Florida St, Temple, SLU, New Mexico, and Wichita St. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 ---TAJ "I see the A10 as a two-bid league --- us and Temple providing no one else wins the tournament." There is still time for Xavier, Dayton, St. Joe's or even UMass (who have the toughest schedule down the stretch) to earn an at-large bid. They have to win obviously but one or even two of them will do it. The key, as always, is separation (they all have to beat teams like LaSalle, Richmond, Bona, etc.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Perhaps this is why it is called a mock seeding. They are mocking us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillikenROAR Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 It is all political. And you see how skewed it is. Thank god the Billikens don't have a football team. (which i still think should have been the name of the student section: 'The Football Team'" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy03 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Let say we win the next four to end the year and dont win the A-10 tournament, are we destined for that 8 or 9 seed? I dont want to face a #1 in the second round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLUDrew Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If we win out I think we could get up to that 5 or 6 line pretty quickly especially if we win a game or two in the A-10 tournament Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kappy96 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Let say we win the next four to end the year and dont win the A-10 tournament, are we destined for that 8 or 9 seed? I dont want to face a #1 in the second round. I hope not...I think the scenario you outline would get us a #7 seed assuming we make a decent run in the A-10 Tourney and lose to a Temple or X (and not a bottom feeder) I'd love to see us play our way to a #6 seed. Probably have to win out AND win the A-10 Tourney to make that a reality though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
majerus mojo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 Probably better luck hoping for an 11 seed than a 6... anything to avoid the 8-9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kshoe Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If we win out and win the tourney we should be in the 4-5 seed range. Win out and lose in the finals it's 6-7 range. Of course if we don't win 3 of the next 4 it gets sketchy pretty quick. That is where we SHOULD be but its so hard to know what the committee is thinking and the chances are definitely better that they screw us than surprise on the upside. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 If we win out and win the tourney we should be in the 4-5 seed range. Win out and lose in the finals it's 6-7 range. Of course if we don't win 3 of the next 4 it gets sketchy pretty quick. That is where we SHOULD be but its so hard to know what the committee is thinking and the chances are definitely better that they screw us than surprise on the upside. It is very hard to forecast seeding but here is a formula that I created to estimate the seed (using old Dance Card and current Daily Bracket formulas) that pretty much agrees with kshoe: SLU's Seed = 0.25 RPI - .0714 ( RPI - 38) You can hold me accountable to that estimate . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kappy96 Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 SLU received a #9 seed in the NCAA's mock draft and was matched up against K-State with the winner to face Calipari and the Kentucky student-athletes. It's worth notiing that the committee had to use fictional conference tournament results as part of the exercise so our seed is based on X winning the tournament over Temple in the A-10 tournament. I'm not sure if they had us losing in the semi's or not? X winning bumped Arizona from the field according to their selection process. Check out the conversation on twitter under #mock Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwyjibo Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 SLU received a #9 seed in the NCAA's mock draft and was matched up against K-State with the winner to face Calipari and the Kentucky student-athletes. It's worth notiing that the committee had to use fictional conference tournament results as part of the exercise so our seed is based on X winning the tournament over Temple in the A-10 tournament. I'm not sure if they had us losing in the semi's or not? X winning bumped Arizona from the field according to their selection process. Check out the conversation on twitter under #mock If SLU is currently a #9 (I was expecting a bit lower currently) I need to revise my formula and expectation for best possible seed. I am not sure how a 4 or 5 is possible now. My new formula: SLU's Seed = 0.25 RPI - .15 ( RPI - 40) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted February 17, 2012 Share Posted February 17, 2012 -i heard someone interviewed this week, might have been glockner from si, anyway whoever it was went on about how many non-bcs teams should make the tourney and perhaps set a record this year (i guess the expansion helps in this regard), they cited the pac 10 being down again and BAB's wcc and the mtn west being up -we'll see what the real committee has up their sleeve Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairie Bill Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 (edited) -we'll see what the real committee has up their sleeveI thought this was a dress rehearsal for the real committee members. So they have practiced saying "Saint Louis" without prompting from the coaches or reporters popularity polls. NM. I think that still happens, but this was clearl a public hands-on demonstration. Edited February 18, 2012 by Prairie Bill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 For those interested here is a picture of the mock seeding from 1-68...notice SLU isn't on the list, because the pic cuts off the teams ranked #33 and 34...the other team missing is Iowa State. This means that this committee had us on the cusp of getting an 8 seed... Bubble teams are in red... http://twitter.com/#...3136768/photo/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slufan13 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2012/02/ncaa-mock-bracket-selection/1#.Tz76t1HN0bS I like the way they did it with having teams that aren't the conference favorite winning their conference tourney. Allowed us to see what could happen in a different scenario, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duff Man Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 NCAA seeds for A10 teams the last 4 years 2011 6 Xavier, 15-1 A10, RPI 24 7 Temple, 14-2 A10, RPI 29 12 Richmond, 13-3 A10, RPI 42, won A10 Tourney 2010 5 Temple, 14-2, RPI 9, won A10 Tourney 6 Xavier, 14-2, RPI 19 7 Richmond, 13-3, RPI 24 2009 4 Xavier, 12-4 A10, RPI 17 11 Temple, 11-5 A10, RPI 31, won A10 Tourney 12 Dayton, 11-5 A10, RPI 27 2008 3 Xavier, 14-2 A10, RPI 9 12 Temple, 11-5 A10, RPI 47, won A10 Tourney RPIforcast.com projects us to finish 25-6 (vs D1) - i.e. we win out the regular season then lose in the A10 semis - but only has our RPI going from 22 to 21 (20.9) under that scenario. Additionally they project Temple to go 4-1 the rest of the way, and losing on the A10 semis, giving them a final RPI of 20 (20.1) Based on all of the above...I'd project Projected 2012 6 Temple, 13-3 A10, RPI 20 7 SLU, 13-3 A10, RPI 21 12 (A10 conference tournament winner) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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