Semi OT: Washington losing to South Dakota St.

[kshoe]

They are down 16 early in the 2nd half...at home.

Its starting to look more and more like the only "good" win we really have is Oklahoma and I'm not sure how good they are. Villanova is 5-5 and is 1-3 against the A-10 with the only win being in OT vs. LaSalle. Washington is on their way to 5-5. Boston College is bad.

We may need the New Mexico game to build a credible non-conference resume. I watched them win at OK State last night. They are real good. Will probably be our toughest non-conference game of the year.

[joe_davola]

What about LMU?

[Billboy1]

LMU is continuing thier stellar play-down by 20 vs. FLState.

[StLouisSportsStream]

I know a good non-conference schedule is very important come selection time, but I think we may be worrying about the competition too much. Lets just worry about getting it done on our end. We can't control how other teams play, especially after we have already beaten them. And why are we worried about Washington's poor play. Sure, maybe our win at face value might not look as impressive. But for those who saw it, and pundits like Andy Katz and Bilas, they aren't looking at it just as a W or L. They know we punished Washington, doubling them up in the first half, never letting it be a close ballgame.

And then in terms of BC and Nova, lets not overthink those either. What was important there was winning the 76 Classic, on national tv, and earning that national respect. We looked mighty fine doing, winning 83-63 vs. Ok

I don't think our non-conference schedule is going to deny us a bid in March. Honestly, it will be how we fair against the rest of A-10 because the committee is only going to give our conference a few bids, so those head-to-head match-up will be very important.

[NH]

I know a good non-conference schedule is very important come selection time, but I think we may be worrying about the competition too much. Lets just worry about getting it done on our end. We can't control how other teams play, especially after we have already beaten them. And why are we worried about Washington's poor play. Sure, maybe our win at face value might not look as impressive. But for those who saw it, and pundits like Andy Katz and Bilas, they aren't looking at it just as a W or L. They know we punished Washington, doubling them up in the first half, never letting it be a close ballgame.

And then in terms of BC and Nova, lets not overthink those either. What was important there was winning the 76 Classic, on national tv, and earning that national respect. We looked mighty fine doing, winning 83-63 vs. Ok

I don't think our non-conference schedule is going to deny us a bid in March. Honestly, it will be how wefair against the rest of A-10 because the committee is only going to give our conference a few bids, so those head-to-head match-up will be very important.

What he means to say is, "easy, friends"

[StLouisSportsStream]

What he means to say is, "easy, friends"

+1,000 #2ez

[JettFlight5]

I'd like to not be concerned about the degradation of the Bills schedule. That said, gotta T.C.O.B. in the Pit on NYE.

[JMM28]

They are down 16 early in the 2nd half...at home.

Its starting to look more and more like the only "good" win we really have is Oklahoma and I'm not sure how good they are. Villanova is 5-5 and is 1-3 against the A-10 with the only win being in OT vs. LaSalle. Washington is on their way to 5-5. Boston College is bad.

We may need the New Mexico game to build a credible non-conference resume. I watched them win at OK State last night. They are real good. Will probably be our toughest non-conference game of the year.

Hopefully Lorenzo Zook can get them to beat up

on the terribly weak pac##. That is a very bad loss.

[kshoe]

I know a good non-conference schedule is very important come selection time, but I think we may be worrying about the competition too much. Lets just worry about getting it done on our end. We can't control how other teams play, especially after we have already beaten them. And why are we worried about Washington's poor play. Sure, maybe our win at face value might not look as impressive. But for those who saw it, and pundits like Andy Katz and Bilas, they aren't looking at it just as a W or L. They know we punished Washington, doubling them up in the first half, never letting it be a close ballgame.

And then in terms of BC and Nova, lets not overthink those either. What was important there was winning the 76 Classic, on national tv, and earning that national respect. We looked mighty fine doing, winning 83-63 vs. Ok

I don't think our non-conference schedule is going to deny us a bid in March. Honestly, it will be how we fair against the rest of A-10 because the committee is only going to give our conference a few bids, so those head-to-head match-up will be very important.

That is fine and all and hopefully we just roll through the A-10 with no problems. Let's say that happens, sure would be nice if our non-con wins were against other teams in the NCAA tournament. Might help quite a bit with seeding. As it stands now, Oklahoma is the only team that looks like an NCAA worthy team.

Far more importantly, what if we don't roll throught the A-10 and go 11-5 or so? If we lose to New Mexico we'd be 23-7 and firmly on the bubble. Strong performances from UW, Villanova and OK down the stretch would probably tilt the bubble in our favor. If those three fall apart we would we ripe to be left out.

Thankfully, guys like Bilas and Vitale aren't on the selection committee. A lot more goes into it than the "eye test."

[moytoy12]

That is fine and all and hopefully we just roll through the A-10 with no problems. Let's say that happens, sure would be nice if our non-con wins were against other teams in the NCAA tournament. Might help quite a bit with seeding. As it stands now, Oklahoma is the only team that looks like an NCAA worthy team.

Far more importantly, what if we don't roll throught the A-10 and go 11-5 or so? If we lose to New Mexico we'd be 23-7 and firmly on the bubble. Strong performances from UW, Villanova and OK down the stretch would probably tilt the bubble in our favor. If those three fall apart we would we ripe to be left out.

Thankfully, guys like Bilas and Vitale aren't on the selection committee. A lot more goes into it than the "eye test."

If we are 23-7, then we'll be dancing.

[West Pine Jim]

If we are 23-7, then we'll be dancing.

Life is too short to worry about what our past opponents are doing. We can't control that. What we can do is just win as many games as possible and see what happens. Prepare for each game, enjoy it and keep-a-goin' ! (Lorenzo Zook ? I like that !)

[Cowboy]

-i will say it again, we control our own destiny, win the games and we dance with a great seed, if we are counting on what others are doing we haven;t taken care of our own business

[doowop]

I'd like to not be concerned about the degradation of the Bills schedule. That said, gotta T.C.O.B. in the Pit on NYE.

Unfortunately, I don't think that will happen unless we get more help from Loe. New Mexico is long and talented and winning there is hard for most teams.

We will need some very strong inside play.

[billikenfan05]

Unfortunately, I don't think that will happen unless we get more help from Loe. New Mexico is long and talented and winning there is hard for most teams.

We will need some very strong inside play.

I'm sure you are talking specifically about help inside. Loe scored 15 in 14 against Alabama St.

[doowop]

I'm sure you are talking specifically about help inside. Loe scored 15 in 14 against Alabama St.

The difference in the talent level of New Mexico and Alabama St. is vast. When Loe starts to score 15 points against the likes of New Mexico then he may finally have arrived. We need his presence INSIDE every once in a while against the better teams.

[The Wiz]

For those concerned about the quality of our opponents here is a listing of past opponents current rankings plus a couple of future ones that posters seem to be focused on.. Generally B- or higher will get you on the honor roll.

Thru Dec 18...

Tenn St.....D+

SIU............F

Wash.........B+

Bos Coll.....F

Nova..........B

Okla...........A-

LoyM..........C

Port............D+

Ver.............C-

Ala St.........F

Ark St.........C

New Mex....B+

[Taj79]

Just win baby.

Question to ask New Mexico: Can you defend? To be more direct, can you defend us? Can your five step out and cover our shooting five/Loe? Can your four cover our shooting four/Ellis? If you can, does that allow our other internal four/Conklin to wipe up inside? Will our 1-2-3's make shots putting more pressure on your four and five to cover? If we have three viable options, on any given night, making their shots, then ther eis not a singl eoffensive possession the defense can rest on.

That is the key to opening the Pit.

[kshoe]

If we are 23-7, then we'll be dancing.

At the beginning of the year, I would have agreed with you. Now I'm not so certain. According to this site which predicts RPIs for various records, we'll be 38th with a 23-7 record. Earlier in the year it was in the 30-35 range for the same record...the poor performance of our non con opponents is the main reason this has dropped.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St.%20Louis.html

You can count on one hand the number of non-BCS schools in the last 10 years that have gotten at large bids to the NCAA touney with 40 or higher RPIs.

To sum it up; we clearly still control our own destiny but there is no doubt that the poor performance of our non-con opponents has made the margin for error smaller.

[SShoe]

The difference in the talent level of New Mexico and Alabama St. is vast. When Loe starts to score 15 points against the likes of New Mexico then he may finally have arrived. We need his presence INSIDE every once in a while against the better teams.

Loe is certainly still inconsistent at this point, but some of his better games throughout his career have been against the superior competition. Last year he put up 20 or so against Georgia and had a similar line against X. This year, other than the Alabama State game, his best game might have been against Washington. The key for him is knocking down those early open looks, particularly his first attempt.

[Cowboy]

Loe is certainly still inconsistent at this point, but some of his better games throughout his career have been against the superior competition. Last year he put up 20 or so against Georgia and had a similar line against X. This year, other than the Alabama State game, his best game might have been against Washington. The key for him is knocking down those early open looks, particularly his first attempt.

-i agree and perhaps my mind is playing tricks on me but it sure does seem like RL plays a much better game when his first shot is a make, i would like to see the stats to see if perception and reality are in line-

-i may try to put that together if i can find the necessary info as slubillikens.com is a maze i have not solved to this point, like nicholson in 'the shining'

[2010andBeyond]

At the beginning of the year, I would have agreed with you. Now I'm not so certain. According to this site which predicts RPIs for various records, we'll be 38th with a 23-7 record. Earlier in the year it was in the 30-35 range for the same record...the poor performance of our non con opponents is the main reason this has dropped.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/St.%20Louis.html

You can count on one hand the number of non-BCS schools in the last 10 years that have gotten at large bids to the NCAA touney with 40 or higher RPIs.

To sum it up; we clearly still control our own destiny but there is no doubt that the poor performance of our non-con opponents has made the margin for error smaller.

I would be very, very nervous with a 23-7 record. With our remaining schedule, I believe our 6 toughest games will be @unm, @ud, @x, @umass, @sju, and x. We should be able to win 3 of those 6. 4-5 losses total would be a lock, 6 would be questionable, and 7 would be nit in my view. If we have no surprise bad losses, I think we have a good margin for error in our 6 toughest games regardless of what udub and nova turn out to be.

[kwyjibo]

At the beginning of the year, I would have agreed with you. Now I'm not so certain. According to this site which predicts RPIs for various records, we'll be 38th with a 23-7 record. Earlier in the year it was in the 30-35 range for the same record...the poor performance of our non con opponents is the main reason this has dropped. http://www.rpiforeca...t.%20Louis.html You can count on one hand the number of non-BCS schools in the last 10 years that have gotten at large bids to the NCAA touney with 40 or higher RPIs. To sum it up; we clearly still control our own destiny but there is no doubt that the poor performance of our non-con opponents has made the margin for error smaller.

Great post (and I will be using that link to create SLU based probabilities after the NM game). The selection committee has many flaws and is somewhat inconsistent BUT there are still many obvious selection factors outside of "what you do". The strength of your schedule is most definitely important and even more narrowly your records against the top 50 and top 25. SOS is a key factor in ANY rating system and the selection committee uses rating systems (RPI and probably Sagarin). So, rooting for teams you play (and even better you beat) is part of being a fan. It has nothing to do with worrying but everything to do with observing SLU's season.

SLU's at large chances have gone down because of the play of their non-conference foes. Luckily, the A-10 may step up. In general the A-10 has been a bit better than expected, especially the top 5. St. Joe's, Dayton, and Temple all have a chance at staying in bubble territory themselves. If they manage to stay in the top 50 then wins against any of them improve SLU's chances more than they would if they beat a non-Top 50 team. Even within the conference SLU is going to have the weakest SOS of any of the contenders. When two teams are analysed on selection day, the SOS will be looked at in combination with W-L pct. There are many teams that "just won" (how did that work out for Harvard last year?) in the past and were NITed.