The Wiz Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 AND....we are back to F+...well, our upgrade to D- was fun while it lasted. After all that struggle to get to D- how can we fall back so easy...here's how...converting the numbers to grades Offense...when trying to be polite, it gives new meaning to the phrase ...No Offense PPG...F- 5th worst in D-1 Slash line....F- (15th worst) / D+ / F Reb F+ TOs ...F Defense PPG....C Slash...D+/ D+ Reb... F+ Now compare this with Day Off PPG....C+ Slash...B/ B- / D- Reb...C+ Defense PPG...A- Slash...A- / B- Reb.....B- Forcing TOs....A So what happens when a really good defensive team plays a really bad offensive team? Things get ugly. It we go into one of our cold spells.... the spread could easily balloon to the 30s...or worse yet...the dreaded "20" might reappear. Cooke is their scorer with 18 ppg...but there are number of guys they can score...Davis is their best shooter... at 57% and leads the team in steals. And he doesn't even start. But in the end ...Day is all about the D This will be our toughest remaining game...it gets better from here...smaller losing spreads Bottomline... We will have to protect the ball...try to keep the TOs fairly equal...and no 7 min stretches with no baskets.... 2 weeks from Sat our next win...A&T Tick tick Tick....7 weeks to go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Wiz, there you go with the tick tick tick again. There is no point in this, our team is playing under conditions that are not fully controllable by anyone. It is true that from a probability point of view our team will lose to Dayton twice this year. You are correct saying that things may get very ugly during this game. That said, what at least minimally or partially positive outcomes can we reasonably get out of this particular game? First of all we have to score over 20 points, this is doable. Second our players with injuries (Crawford's legs and Roby's hands) have to remain functional and capable to play after this game is over. We cannot risk losing either of them, something that would happen if Crawford tears his hamstring while playing in this game. Finally we can hope to keep our loss below 30+ points. These outcomes are valuable because they will help us maintain a team that is capable of turning around and getting wins here and there. We need those to get off the rock bottom of A10. In terms of unexpected but possibly positive results of this game against Dayton, it would be very nice if Moore found his groove and started playing effectively, that would be a great plus for us. Will this happen?, nothing says it will or it will not. So yes, we all know we are an F+ team heading for a defeat at the hands of Dayton, and yes it will not be pretty. However we can still have good feelings about this game if Moore plays better, if we manage to keep the loss below the spread, and if Crawford maintains his ability to play beyond this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billikenblue Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Wiz is stating reality.Waiting for the clock to run out is the only consolation for this year. It is unwatchable basketball and truly is the worst team I have ever seen the Billikens put on the floor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBFan Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Sorry Old Guy I like The Wiz ticking time clock. The Wiz did it for the end of Jim Crews count down and now the end of a difficult season. The next time clock we will see will be the count down to the 2017 - 2018 season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I know he is but I refuse to see our reality as black OR white, I am looking for shades of grey in there. Nothing wrong with that either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I have no issues with the tick, tick, tick. I can't speak for anyone else but those clock sounds, to me, are the clock ticking off the time until this nightmare is over. Which is seven weeks from now per his Wizardry, which ends at a PIG. The only positive results left in this season are once again determining who should stay. Who has hope and shows enough promise to be kept around as a benchwarmer/practice player/spot reliever. I believe the book is closed on Johnson; keep him as he has a large upside. There are no salvageable attributes for the bigs. Roby can stay given his defense; I also think that he can be a better contributor as a spot player and not a go-to guy. Moore is questionable to me although others say he's young, give him time. I can see that. Welmer is a keeper. Bishop, I don't know. Can't comment as this "severe ankle sprain" is puzzling to say the least. I see no hope for getting wins "here and there." Who are we going to beat? Possibles are Umass, Mason, NC A&T and Duquesne .. all at home. If we win, yay! if not, tick, tick, tick. Keeping losses below 30 points mean nothing. A loss is a loss is a loss. I'd agree a good outcome to these events would be to developing an attitude that we can win, but the guys that will be playing next year aren't on the court right now. The only lesson they are learning is I don't want this to happen to me. If scoring over 20 points is our objective, I'd rather watch the clock tick then that brand of basketball. And this coming from a guy who was at the 20 point game and didn't feel it was that bad because GeeDubya was equally inept and a lot of our shots went halfway down the cylinder only to come back out. I don't want anybody to get hurt but losing anyone on this team, while certainly a downer, makes this season no worse than it is. These guys have already matched two five-win seasons I lived through with Grawer. It will get better --- tick, tick, tick. The only positive I see is each completed game takes us closer to ending the he-who-is-dead-to-me nightmare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 35 minutes ago, Taj79 said: I I also think that he can be a better contributor as a spot player and not a go-to guy. The only positive I see is each completed game takes us closer to ending the nightmare. -as I see it, the bold relates to most -amen to the second, I am psyched for next season and Nov 8 or whatever loi day is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I too relate to the tick, tick, tick. I've sat through most of these "contests" (home games anyway) and a lot of it has been unwatchable. I'd rather listen to a clock tick. It means it's just a matter of time before better days ahead. Old guy, this team is AWFUL. Historically bad. You can look for this-and-that individual improvement if you like, but if NO ONE on this team returns, we'll still be much better. tick...tick...tick... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 19, 2017 Author Share Posted January 19, 2017 Sorry, Old guy...I just call it like it is. Putting lipstick on a pig...it is still a pig. The numbers don't lie. Yes I could find something in the numbers to make it gray instead of black. Our FT shooting has improved the last few games including a 91% the last game...that moved us from a bottom 10 team and F- to an F level...still a pig. More positives...I did mention we have an upcoming win when we play A & T . How do I know this? NCAT is a bottom 10 team ( F- ) ..Only team in D-1 without a win....another pig. There are those who ask is this the worst Bills team ever. Maybe , if not the worst then one of the worst. Offensively, no question this is the worst. I see the clock as a positive. An end to a nightmare season. A light at the end of the tunnel....The tunnel is exactly 7 weeks long. Want some real positives Old Guy? I have seen the new guys (black sweatsuits at the end of the bench ) practice a number of times. They are better than anything we have on the floor now AND they make the current players better too. So look at the clock as a positive. When time runs out, I am planning on putting it away along with letter F (and it's subsets) Tick tick tick...to a new beginning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 -there are 7 A10 teams with 2 conf wins, that just seems odd to me through 5 or 6 games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 hours ago, CBFan said: Sorry Old Guy I like The Wiz ticking time clock. The Wiz did it for the end of Jim Crews count down and now the end of a difficult season. The next time clock we will see will be the count down to the 2017 - 2018 season. i wish we could add a countdown clock to the board ticking down till 11/15/17 appx Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Hey guys no need to apologize, if you like the clock it is fine with me. I was just expressing my frustrations in a more positive manner than going into oblivion until next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Pelican Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizziken Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Cowboy said: -there are 7 A10 teams with 2 conf wins, that just seems odd to me through 5 or 6 games We're only 4 games out of first...3 if you assume we win our game against Richmond. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
almaman Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 so 10/90? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old guy Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 OK guys the Team Rankings Vegas implied scores for this game are: SLU 52.5, Dayton 75.5. The spread is 23 in favor of Dayton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Zeke out today with sprained ankle. Crawford at about 60%. Per Coach on KMOX. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Zeke out today with sprained ankle. Crawford at about 60%. Per Coach on KMOX. -yeah I heard that, too, more minutes for someone...... -said Crawford not really practicing at all to try to rest the hammie -good luck today boys, let's get an upset Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoosierPal Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Cowboy said: -yeah I heard that, too, more minutes for someone...... -said Crawford not really practicing at all to try to rest the hammie -good luck today boys, let's get an upset Coach may have to 'unmessage' Gillman or Neufeld. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyJumpUp Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, HoosierPal said: Coach may have to 'unmessage' Gillman or Neufeld. Psimitis will see some time today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soderball Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 3 hours ago, JohnnyJumpUp said: Psimitis will see some time today savage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wiz Posted January 23, 2017 Author Share Posted January 23, 2017 Well the good news is...this was our toughest game between today and the end of the season. The bad news is we still will have only 1 more win left. The other good news is we shot 77% from the foul line ...an improving trend over the last few games. TOs also have been dropping recently with a respectable 14 today. Unfortunately, even this good news was eclipsed by Dayton who shot 81% from the charity stripe (on a lot more foul shots) and had only 10 TOs....so we lose the turnover differential too. We can't seem to pressure opposing teams enough. In the original post I graded the stat line and as dismal as it seemed , we managed to exceed all the numbers on the downside except FTs and TOs. While 30% FG% keeps us at the F- level 16% from the arc takes you near historic lows. Finally, one last stat......If we could have had a Billiken game today ....not a great game ...not even a good game...but a Billiken game...ie we shoot our normal crappy average...we would have had 4 more 3s and 1 more 2...for a total of 14 pts plus even up the TOs...would yield another...8pts...and the Bills have 22 more points and a win against the best A-10 team. Just think if we would have had a good game against them. Tick...tick...tick...6 more weeks .. to a new beginning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taj79 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Forget about the opposition's turnovers, the only way we increase things is to encounter a Umass who shoots themselves in the foot more than reacting to our pressure. Pressure is applied by guards, mostly, and we don't have any ..... Bishop out. Moore out. Crawford injured. Hines a walk-on. Psimitis a walk on. And the rest are not equipped to do much in the area of pressing the ball. Agbeko, Johnson, Gillmann and Nuefeld are all too "stiff' to do so. I'll leave it at that. No, much like today, we will run our weave for the first 15 seconds of the possession, and then try to force one up that will clang off the rim and head down the other way. As I feared, injuries have decimated a team talent-weak to begin with. Ford seems to be insisting on a full shot clock run on our offense. And because we can't shoot the ball, all that does is make for boring basketball, low scoring games, and keeping us "in it" for as long as it can. Add to that foul trouble and its time to bring out the paper bags for our heads. He-who-is-dead-to-me has to look at this with all sorts of pride. Look what I made! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboy Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 45 minutes ago, Taj79 said: He-who-is-dead-to-me has to look at this with all sorts of pride. Look what I made! -a fine creator of the dumpster fire he was Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quality Is Job 1 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 (edited) 14 hours ago, The Wiz said: Finally, one last stat......If we could have had a Billiken game today ....not a great game ...not even a good game...but a Billiken game...ie we shoot our normal crappy average...we would have had 4 more 3s and 1 more 2...for a total of 14 pts plus even up the TOs...would yield another...8pts...and the Bills have 22 more points and a win against the best A-10 team. Just think if we would have had a good game against them. The problem with that reasoning is that an average Billiken game includes the play of players who were not available to play in the game. And when you take those players out, that means the remaining players of a depleted team must carry more of the load for longer, becoming more susceptible to fatigue. And then we learn that Reggie had been sick. No, it would have taken a miracle. Also, Dayton may have "played down." Even during the three-year run of success — especially after Crews took over — the Bills would occasionally or often "play down to the level of the competition" and not put teams away as early as they should. (That was the problem in 2014.) I suspect that if the Bills had had a good game or even played "out of their minds" yesterday, Dayton would have had an adequate response. And we have to give Dayton credit for contributing to the Bills' poor offense. Lastly, if Bishop isn't going to play, do you have any means of calculating what the remaining team's metrics should look like for your projections going forward? I presume your numbers thus far have been including Bishop's contributions. 4 hours ago, Cowboy said: 5 hours ago, Taj79 said: He-who-is-dead-to-me has to look at this with all sorts of pride. Look what I made! -a fine creator of the dumpster fire he was Well, not exactly. While Jim Crews did run the program into the depths of the Grand Canyon with a steam shovel, the current team is not the one he constructed. If Crews were still the coach this year, Miles Reynolds and Marcus Bartley would still be on the squad — though I suspect Milik Yarbrough was leaving, regardless, and Jalen Johnson would not be here — and the lack of depth would not be as pronounced. The Bills might have won two or three additional non-conference games. But even if the record were 8-11, it would have been bad — and the future would appear much worse than we anticipate next year will be with Ford's transfer replacements and recruits — but it wouldn't have been this bad. But I'll quietly accept the historic lousiness of this year's team in anticipation of the ascendance that is to come. The departures of Reynolds and Bartley is what's making this year's team so bad, but if they don't leave, Ford can't bring in Henriquez and Graves. And who knows if not having the lineup of three transfers that were already in place would have seemed impressive enough for Goodwin to commit when he did? So, the departures of players that would have sustained a mediocre record for this season has allowed Ford to build up the program much more quickly. Let's rejoice in how awful this year is, because if it were (slightly) better, the rebuilding process would be much slower — like when it took five years for Majerus to finally reach the NCAA Tournament (because of the incident). Edited January 23, 2017 by Quality Is Job 1 Couple of typos. Should have proofread! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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