Outlook

[slu72]

Like most businesses am sure that the Billiken Brain Trust is looking ahead to the future and assessing where program will be. Face it the goal of every D1 program is to make the dance. What are our chances coming off a 9-21 year and entering a new conference that doesn't earn as many spots as our old one. Two ways to make the dance: Win somewhere around 22 games or win the conference tourney. How realistic is it to assume we can win 22 games in 2005-06? Not very at this point. Assume a 28 game schedule with 18 being conference games and 10 non con's with at least 4-5 of those games having to be against top 50 programs for rpi purposes. Best estimate for Conference wins would be 9 or 10 and there ain't no way we're going undefeated in non. We're a young team with really no leader type seniors or juniors on the squad. Last season we had an all conference player, a physical center, and a senior that earned MVP honors. Granted injuries were a key factor in the dismal results. Now we return a bunch of sophs, two frosh who we are counting on to play key roles but will most likely struggle with the complexities of D1 ball, an improving Junior, and an inconsistent senior that avg'd 6 points and five to's. 2005-06 doesn't look too promising. A .500 record would be a great achievement. So look ahead to 2006-07. Now a senior big man, who we hope is better than average, 3-4 key juniors, and if you believe the hype about TL and KL, two of the best young guards in the conference and hopefully a contributing class of freshman with at least one being ready to start at PF, unless JJ finally gets it and surprises everyone in 2005-06. So, will this get us there? Close but no cigar I'm afraid...probable best result NIT. I think we're looking at 2007-08 as the earliest we have a legit shot at the NCAA. Of course anything can happen both good and bad to us and our conference opponents. But most likely scenario is two more years of being a spectator at the dance.

[StLouBlue]

One thing that you are not factoring in that I see is we still have 3 open scholarships, that is nearly a quarter of our roster open. I expect at least one more player for next year and maybe a transfer coming in. I agree though that next year a .500 record would be a successful season. Going forward I think the development of the players we have is probably more important than new recruits. If IV, Husak, and JJ can develop into quality players earning 25+ minutes each night, then things will look a lot brighter the next couple of years.

[TEE]

I think trying to gauge what next season will be like at this point is futile at best. IMHO, I'd wait till October practice starts and we can see how things begin to shake out. When you look at the A10, this confrence will be pretty good, you could see 4 or 5 teams get into the field of 64(1). I'll I can say is that I think this team will be better than what we saw last season, how that relates to wins/losses we just have to wait till November when we start keeping score. In regards to recruiting, we don't need to waste scholarships on players that are not going to play major roles. In the past Brad/Staff had to add late "fill in's" and look at our recent upperclassman.

The backcourt is pretty much set for the time being and those 5 guys get me excited about what could happen. We have 2 centers that have real ability, when was the last time you could say that. Ian, if he keeps developing, can be real special this season and next. Bryce is a potential difference maker with his ability to alter the shots on defense, we saw it at times last season. We are thin at the 4, but hey the Illini didn't have a horse at the 4 and they did ok. If JJ and VN can hold there own, play good post defense and hit the glass we should be fine. How all this relates to W/L's we'll just have to wait, because now is the time to be optimistic.

Besides the Cardinals might have something real special going on here and come October SLU bball might have to wait for a Cardinal parade down Market!

[Billikenbooster]

TEE-

I agree with most of what you said, but we have to have a more look-and-see approach with Husak, don't you think. UB should have played him more to spell IV IMO. I don't have a good feeling yet about him, much as I wasn't sure about IV at this time last year. I hope BH contributes well, but we just don't know yet.

mhg

[billiken_roy]

tee said, "We have 2 centers that have real ability, when was the last time you could say that."

i guess the "real ability" part is in the eye of the beholder. i might concede we have 2 centers that have some potential though.

tee said, "Ian, if he keeps developing, can be real special this season and next."

i would concede that if ian keeps developing, he can compete this year and possibly be special the next.

tee said, "Bryce is a potential difference maker with his ability to alter the shots on defense, we saw it at times last season."

oh boy

tee said, "We are thin at the 4, but hey the Illini didn't have a horse at the 4 and they did ok."

powell is secretariat compared to anything we have had since bonner. i would take powell in a second and brag all day about him as our pf. i.e. powell indeed was a horse and only because he was as good as he was did the illini get where they got imo. he far exceeded everyone's beliefs last year.

[kwyjibo]

If you look at the history of the A-10 over time (WH provided a good synopsis a while ago) you would have to expect an uptick in conference strength. They have a bad year every 4-5 years but quickly go back to their 7-8th best conference status.

Your estimate of 22 wins is too high (unless, SLU and most of the conference decides to play cupcakes in non-conf). I would hope (and expect!) that SLU will play harder non-conference schedules with their move into the A-10.

As far as the team, I would definitely agree that it is too early to tell as their are a lot of balls presumably in the air. We definitely need depth at the bigs and hopefully we get it.

[Box and Won]

Bryce makes me very nervous. He looked decent in the Oral Roberts game, but other than that, he looked slow, unathletic and confused. While you can't teach 7 feet, it's also hard to overcome a lack of athleticism. Let's hope he makes some progress before the 05-06 season.

[TEE]

BH is about where he should be, he is going into his sophmore season, 3rd in the program, he is a project, but has some ability, he has some skill. I am realistic in thinking that he won't play a major role until his junior season 4th in the program. Last season he learned to crawl, this season he begins to take his baby steps. The majority of big men are developed over time in a program. In Ian's case about midway through the season he should come into his own, Ian is a guy that should be a 15 and 10 kind of guy, many points at the line.

When comparing to Roger Powell, all I am saying is that you need someone who gets the job done, plays d and hits the glass.

[billiken_roy]

12 PPG, 6 RPG, shot 55% from the field, 39% from the 3 line, shot more free throws than any of the three all american guards,......again, i would take that guy as our pf in a second.

[kshoe]

From SLU72:

2005-06 doesn't look too promising. A .500 record would be a great achievement.

So look ahead to 2006-07...probable best result NIT.

.500 is never a "great" achievement and I expect much more than the NIT in two years.

This is not college football where programs have to be built over multiple years. This is college basketball where one or two players make all the difference in the world. We have the guards and we have the center.

With the addition of KL and TL there is no reason we won't make the NIT next year and the NCAA the year after. Anything less and Brad will be in job jeopardy.

I've said this before and I'll say it again, the Bills were a better team last year than the 9-21 record indicates. We lost a ton of close games down the stretch. We were good enough to play Charlotte to the wire twice. We beat Louisville for a half (minus their ref cheating).

I'm sick of the negativity and quite frankly it bugs me when people that saw them play less than twice all year are making "state of the program" posts and predicting doom for the next two years. And yes, the NIT is doom.

[3star_recruit]

"This is college basketball where one or two players make all the difference in the world. We have the guards and we have the center."

Will our freshmen and sophomore guards perform better than the sophomore, junior and senior guards for St. Joseph's, Dayton, Charlotte, Xavier, GW or Temple? If not, then we won't finish above .500 in the conference, never mind going to the NIT.

[slufanskip]

Thank You

Official Billikens.com sponsor of H. Waldman

[slu72]

give me some. Or loan me your rose colored glasses. Yes, I only saw them play twice, but I watch a whole lot of college hoops, and if you think the addition of two freshman guards are going to vault us into the NIT next year and then make us a lock for the NCAA the following year, well, I've got some swamp land in Florida you might be interested in. Look, let's agree on one thing up front, we both are Bill's fans and would like nothing better than to see them be regulars at the dance. But is the talent there? Our highest returning scorer averaged 6ppg. There is not a player on the roster that sniffed a vote for all conference consideration...not even honorable mention. Agreed they played some teams tough as the season progressed, but they also lost to teams in the beginning of the year, playing with our departees, that should have been considered practice fodder. Kshoe, this team went 9-21 and is effectively losing 3 starters. Yes, they are being replaced by two of our best Freshman recruits in years, but, hey, they're freshman! Unless there is a major development this summer in the likes of DP, LM, DB, JJ, VN (especially JJ and VN), or the late signing of a diamond in the rough 3 shooter of PF, we're in for another long year. Get used to it. The salad days are two years away.

[kshoe]

3 of our non-conference season starters but during CUSA only Izak started with regularity. This was a completely different team the day Brad inserted Ian into the starting lineup in the Iowa game. We were 6-10 in CUSA with 5 close losses to Depaul, Charlotte, and Marquette and Ian averaged about 10 points a game as a starter.

The A-10 will surely be better than it was last year but will it be as good as CUSA the past two years, I doubt it. We will get quite a few wins vs. the bottom of the A-10.

Tommie may be a freshman technically, but after a year of prep school playing on a team loaded with d1 talent I expect him to be better prepared than your "typical" freshman.

SLU72 if you want to think negative thoughts about the program and set low goals for the future in your own head that is fine but I certainly don't see the value of "state of the program" posts that are nothing but negative.

If you, or anyone else, would like to make a wajor about the Bills finishing over .500 next year I would love to take it. I would be willing to take some pretty large bets as along as I have assurances that I'll be paid when it happens.

[cheeseman]

I think Kshoe makes a valid point. The wild card here is will our younger players continue to progress?

[willie]

Kshoe must have deep pockets if he's willing to take on all the doom and gloomers on this board.

[sluer]

Maybe Kshoe is looking for an underwriter or co-signer.

[slu72]

whose setting low goals, who wants to be negative about my alma mater? I love the Bills, but let's get real. I want this team to make a sweet 16 so bad I can taste it. You've read this all wrong. We are young...very young...and relying very heavily on two Frosh, 3 sophs, and a developing big man. I want to see them succeed above all our expectations and believe they will down the road. But last season, we all, me included, projected the Bills for 19-22 wins. That was based on RB and TF staying healthy, DP having more impact, and some hope that DC and JJ would lend a helping hand. We started two seniors last year and it didn't go as planned. Agreed we showed potential in some of those later games, but still I don't see the talent necessary to be an above .500 team next year. And without some significant inside help for the following season, I can't see us beyond the NIT. Will I bet on it? No, because I'd be betting against the Bills, which would put me in a position to cheer against them. But if I'm wrong, I'll be more than pleased to eat the big crow that would be due me. Believe me Kshoe, we both want the same result.

[3star_recruit]

"The A-10 will surely be better than it was last year but will it be as good as CUSA the past two years, I doubt it. We will get quite a few wins vs. the bottom of the A-10."

Five of the six wins in CUSA were versus the bottom of the conference. We can't finish above .500 in the A-10 just by beating the bottom of the conference. We've got to hold serve against the top third of the conference on our home court. The only quality win we had all of last year was against Memphis, where our graduating MVP had arguably the best game of his career.

Then you've got the matter of non-conference road games against UW-Milwaukee, Hawaii and possibly UNC and home games against an SIU team that beat us by 26 and a Gonzaga team that beat us by 30. I like our underclassmen as much as anybody, but that's five losses right there.

If you're a team with our talent level and laden with underclassmen, and you don't have a transcendent player like Larry Hughes who can put the team on his back, that team will struggle. Season after season after season of basketball has shown us this.

[slu72]

plus the fact that TL and KL will have a huge adjustment to make, and the light at the end of this tunnel is two seasons or a couple of more impact recruits away.

[BillikenButch]

IMO as important as the development of our new and returning players is the development of the coach. By his own admission, he did not have a good year last year. The undercurrent of strained relations with players and his occasional lack of control on the sidelines made the season more difficult. I wonder how he will react if this season proves as challenging?

[WH]

Two years ago, the A-10 was just as good as Conference USA, and did better in postseason play. It’s arguable that C-USA was better top to bottom, but not by much. Last year, however, C-USA was definitely better. No question.

Still, Bills fans will find out that the A-10 is just like any other league. It’s tough to win on the road, even against supposedly lesser teams.

A game at St. Bonaventure, for example, can be very tough. Some of you may recall the close 56-54 win that St. Louis eked out in 2002-2003 season vs a mediocre Bonnies squad (13-14) in Rochester, NY. Two years earlier, a good Bonnies team beat Charlotte 79-78 in Rochester. It will be even tougher in Olean on Bonaventure’s home court.

Of course, the Bonnies have been awful the past two years in the wake of Weldergate, but they’ve added a lot of new players and should be more competitive next season barring unforeseen problems.

As it stands now, only three programs could be considered weak next season in the A-10. St. Bonaventure, Duquesne and LaSalle. And yet, Duquesne beat Dayton on the road last season and LaSalle beat Xavier. Indeed, the Explorers were a very tough out late in the season. They’ve got a good new coach in John Giannini. So don’t expect a whole lot more gimmes than there were in C-USA.

If I recall correctly, the Bills also play three good A-10 teams twice in the unbalanced sked. Only URI turned in a poor performance last year, and that was because two of its three best players were lost to injuries for the entire year. That means one game each vs. Duquesne, Bona and Duquesne. I’d expect the Bills to lose at least one of those games.

The good news is the league is so very young. St. Louis should be able to knock off a top team or two. Sodenberg’s disciplined approach also ought to give the Bills a chance to beat some of the less disciplined teams – good ones such as George Washington and poor ones such as Duquesne.

The Bills themselves will be quite young, though. That means growing pains for you as well. From what I see on game tape, you need big improvements in Polk and Vouyoukas, and better play out of Newborne and Brown, to elevate the program.

I am sure one of the new guys will help out a lot, but it is quite rare, at least in A-10 history, for two first-year players to arrive and immediately boost the number of program wins.

Fortunately there are some recent precedents. Last year, Byrant Dunston – one of the best young bigmen in the country – and guard Marcus Stout became the top two scorers on their team. The freshman duo, neither of whom was highly recruited, almost gave Fordham its first winning season since joining the A-10 in 1996.

The year before that, Xavier got a big boost from the two Justins – Doellman and Cage – in their run to the Elite 8.

It’s worth pointing out, however, that both Justins struggled at times in their sophomore seasons when they became focal points. Their success as freshmen was enabled in large part by the play of Xavier’s talented seniors, who drew all the defensive attention.